North Korea vs USA

[PiperBill]

Breaking news over here is that the US and NK are "At the brink of war". The leftist anti Trump media is all over it saying like "look at this Trump guy he's about to start WW3".

Experts are saying that NK stands no chance in a war against the USA and its allies but they will probably wreak havoc before they are taken down.

But isn't the war technically still on? It's only been a cease fire between north and south for nearly 70 years.

[so-tex]

I really feel bad for the citizens of North Korea.
I'm not for regime change, but in this case, could it be any worse?
I doubt N.Korea will inflict any damage. I haven't seen any proof that their sh*t even works.

[JrM703]

This is an annual occurrence.

Happened with Clinton, Dubya, Obama, and now Trump.

[lsiberian]

China is still trying to keep everyone calm. They don't want nukes going off near there country. Hopefully they can convince NK to calm down.

[sy2502]

[so-tex]

China is still trying to keep everyone calm. They don't want nukes going off near there country. Hopefully they can convince NK to calm down.

Agreed. China needs to step up and calm that little fukcer down!

[Cantplankwell]

There is not going to be a war,because it would be the biggest economic mess, and loss of human life since WWII. Everybody knows this.

[Mark1T]

Too many bad scenarios. 20 million people in N. Korea and all are starving except that fat-ass Dear Leader and his military.

China has already moved 150,000 troops at the China N. Korea border to prevent mass refugees from entering China.

Even though N. Korea has had hit and misses with its ICBM missiles, it has 75,000+ smaller rockets that are very dependable aiming at Seoul. Not to mention, rumors that N. Korea has the ability to send sarin-tipped missiles into S. Korea and Japan. N. Korea has one of the most prolific chemical weapons arsenal in the world.

Saturday is going to be interesting, especially if N. Korea tests another nuclear weapon.

[7Seconds]

No one including the US will attack NK. NK claims to have 10000 artillery guns pointed at Seoul which is very close the border and has metro population of 25 million.China for all the hassle wants a buffer state to stop from being surrounded by Pro-US nations(South Korea, Japan, Taiwan etc). North Korea likes to play the Madman but, if you look at the history of their threats they usually follow pattern. Missile or nuclear test on major national holidays or in reaction to some outside event(like when NK popped a missile off after Trump got elected).

War would mean the collapse of the NK regime as the US rips it apart. Before that, probably lots of South Koreans would die, and Japan might get hit with missiles. NK may get the chance to nuke someone. China is obligated by treaty to help but may or may not help NK. During/after the NK collapse, millions (maybe 20+ M) of refugees will spill over into China and the ROK.

AND someone has to do reunification. ROK has a govt department dedicated to this if I remember right, but it will be expensive and difficult.

So, basically the whole region wants status quo.

[thebigzakbowski]

Too many bad scenarios. 20 million people in N. Korea and all are starving except that fat-ass Dear Leader and his military.

China has already moved 150,000 troops at the China N. Korea border to prevent mass refugees from entering China.

Even though N. Korea has had hit and misses with its ICBM missiles, it has 75,000+ smaller rockets that are very dependable aiming at Seoul. Not to mention, rumors that N. Korea has the ability to send sarin-tipped missiles into S. Korea and Japan. N. Korea has one of the most prolific chemical weapons arsenal in the world.

Saturday is going to be interesting, especially if N. Korea tests another nuclear weapon.

NK is all bluff and no stuff. They know if they launch chemical weapons, they are toast. They run their mouths like they are real tough guys but their dear leader lives in total luxury why would he give that up and face certain death in an unwinnable war?

[Mark1T]

NK is all bluff and no stuff. They know if they launch chemical weapons, they are toast. They run their mouths like they are real tough guys but their dear leader lives in total luxury why would he give that up and face certain death in an unwinnable war?

Agreed, but Kim Jong Un is nuttier than any of his predecessors. 2 Chinese negotiators are in NK right now speaking with him, trying to defuse the situation.

True, it is an unwinnable war for NK, but if they know they are going to lose being attacked, they have nothing to lose by wreaking havoc, whatever that may be.

[thebigzakbowski]

Agreed, but Kim Jong Un is nuttier than any of his predecessors. 2 Chinese negotiators are in NK right now speaking with him, trying to defuse the situation.

True, it is an unwinnable war for NK, but if they know they are going to lose being attacked, they have nothing to lose by wreaking havoc, whatever that may be.

I get what you are saying. Like a little kid breaking a toy so no one else can play with it. Guy figures if he is getting taken out anyway, launch a preemptive strike and take a bunch of people out first. China should off the guy first just to prevent it from happening

[7Seconds]

I get what you are saying. Like a little kid breaking a toy so no one else can play with it. Guy figures if he is getting taken out anyway, launch a preemptive strike and take a bunch of people out first. China should off the guy first just to prevent it from happening

NK wants to be perceived as irrational, while in reality that is part of their rationale.

[Mark1T]

NK wants to be perceived as irrational, while in reality that is part of their rationale.

That does make sense.

[thebigzakbowski]

NK wants to be perceived as irrational, while in reality that is part of their rationale.

That does make sense.

Like you dont want to mess with them because they are so scary you don't know what they'll do?

[Mark1T]

Like you dont want to mess with them because they are so scary you don't know what they'll do?

Even though they are extremely isolated, they know how to play poker.

[thebigzakbowski]

Even though they are extremely isolated, they know how to play poker.

Until the world calls their bluff and a united team of special forces (like rainbox six) sneak in to nk and disable their nukes. Man I hope someone is thinking about that. I have no desire to see missiles flying

[Mark1T]

Until the world calls their bluff and a united team of special forces (like rainbox six) sneak in to nk and disable their nukes. Man I hope someone is thinking about that. I have no desire to see missiles flying

That is the best idea I have heard of. South Korea actually has a "Decapitation" plan that does just that, with special forces. To not only kill the fat-boy, but also kill the military leaders and the most impending artillery.

[7Seconds]

Like you dont want to mess with them because they are so scary you don't know what they'll do?

The fact remains that if you are a small country that has a hostile relationship to the US your best bet is to develop nuclear weapons. The difference between North Korea and the likes of Iraq, Libya, Syria and others who easily became scrap heaps due to US invasions or interventions is that North Korea has a credible deterrence capability. So if you don't have any allies and want to survive as a state you could argue there is nothing better than nukes.

Until the world calls their bluff and a united team of special forces (like rainbox six) sneak in to nk and disable their nukes. Man I hope someone is thinking about that. I have no desire to see missiles flying

That won't happen. I suppose a peaceful and sustainable (non-status quo) solution would be for the generals to come to believe that fatty kim III is going to get them all killed, and kill him first. Or the US/China puts them up to it with promises of power.

Then NK becomes basically a Chinese puppet but gradually begins to open and develop economically. Making NK a democracy tomorrow simply will not work in any scenario for decades to come, so a chinese style economic development plan with incremental political progress might suit it better. Maybe the NK establishment wouldn't mind transitioning into this since none of their asses would end up in the ICC for silly little things like death camps, and they could still behave like conquering mongol generals.

Once this happened, NK would be in a relatively good position to occupy the role of the new low cost manufacturing hub in asia, and it could export via sea to the world and land to SK and China. Still very poor, still not unified but it wouldn't greatly alter the political landscape of asia which is the real issue here. Although it still wouldn't be a great holiday desitination.

[thebigzakbowski]

That is the best idea I have heard of. South Korea actually has a "Decapitation" plan that does just that, with special forces. To not only kill the fat-boy, but also kill the military leaders and the most impending artillery.

like the end of the soprano's wack all the leaders of the crew.....

with china telling NK to simmer down and them not listening, might be one of the best times ever to launch "Decapitation." It would suck to wait on this and have to look back in history and say "If we had attacked just 2 days earlier we could have stopped the missiles."

[Karl_Hungus]

The fact remains that if you are a small country that has a hostile relationship to the US your best bet is to develop nuclear weapons. The difference between North Korea and the likes of Iraq, Libya, Syria and others who easily became scrap heaps due to US invasions or interventions is that North Korea has a credible deterrence capability.

Not really -- their capability to use those weapons against the US is essentially zero. What capabilities they do have are fairly recent, well after the US became involved in the middle east.

[7Seconds]

Not really -- their capability to use those weapons against the US is essentially zero. What capabilities they do have are fairly recent, well after the US became involved in the middle east.

No they could not touch the U.S. but they could wipe out Seoul, Tokyo and our 70,000 soldiers in those two countries.

[crupiea]

Breaking news in dprk is that us has been poised to strike for the last 70 years.

I dont think i would put too much faith in the media. We wont attack them as it would endanger the south koreans. We are just going to flex some muscle. Just like the dog that barks when you walk by the fence. all bark and no bite. open the gate and it will run away.

North Korea is my hobby of course so i have a fair sense of how they think. They wont do anything stupider then what they normally do.

[Brackneyc]

No they could not touch the U.S. but they could wipe out Seoul, Tokyo and our 70,000 soldiers in those two countries.

I seriously doubt they are dumb enough to do anything of the sort.

[Karl_Hungus]

North Korea is my hobby of course

You've got some strange hobbies crup.....

[mtpockets]

Assassinate that son of a bitch, problem solved

[Cantplankwell]

The fact remains that if you are a small country that has a hostile relationship to the US your best bet is to develop nuclear weapons. The difference between North Korea and the likes of Iraq, Libya, Syria and others who easily became scrap heaps due to US invasions or interventions is that North Korea has a credible deterrence capability. So if you don't have any allies and want to survive as a state you could argue there is nothing better than nukes.






That won't happen. I suppose a peaceful and sustainable (non-status quo) solution would be for the generals to come to believe that fatty kim III is going to get them all killed, and kill him first. Or the US/China puts them up to it with promises of power.

Then NK becomes basically a Chinese puppet but gradually begins to open and develop economically. Making NK a democracy tomorrow simply will not work in any scenario for decades to come, so a chinese style economic development plan with incremental political progress might suit it better. Maybe the NK establishment wouldn't mind transitioning into this since none of their asses would end up in the ICC for silly little things like death camps, and they could still behave like conquering mongol generals.

Once this happened, NK would be in a relatively good position to occupy the role of the new low cost manufacturing hub in asia, and it could export via sea to the world and land to SK and China. Still very poor, still not unified but it wouldn't greatly alter the political landscape of asia which is the real issue here. Although it still wouldn't be a great holiday desitination.

A coup is a real option, There are times I really feel he is not in control, he might be a figure head. Sooner or later his own people with help or not are going to want change

[so-tex]

NK wants to be perceived as irrational, while in reality that is part of their rationale.

Yes!

[7Seconds]

I seriously doubt they are dumb enough to do anything of the sort.

I agree but it doesn't mean it is not a pretty effective deterrent. From NK's perspective, their primary reason for having WMDs is to deter a regime change. They also are willing to trade concessions on their nuclear program for political benefits. Since technologically, they have a difficult time protecting their assets, they can alternatively use a deterrence strategy: if you try to strike at my nukes, I will threaten to use them. So this means putting their assets on hair triggers and practicing for nuclear war. While this deterrence reduces the risk of intentional conflict it certainly increases the risk of unintentional conflict.

[Brackneyc]

I agree but it doesn't mean it is not a pretty effective deterrent. From NK's perspective, their primary reason for having WMDs is to deter a regime change. They also are willing to trade concessions on their nuclear program for political benefits. Since technologically, they have a difficult time protecting their assets, they can alternatively use a deterrence strategy: if you try to strike at my nukes, I will threaten to use them. So this means putting their assets on hair triggers and practicing for nuclear war. While this deterrence reduces the risk of intentional conflict it certainly increases the risk of unintentional conflict.

And all but a guaranteed total and complete end of that nation, and the dirt it sits on. It is like a baby threatening to fight an NFL team with a bat sht crazy coach.