🦇🦠🧪✡️ COVID-19 Hangout Thread 🔬🛸💊🦎 Episode IV: A New Hope

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

i don’t think so
If they are anything like America , younger people are getting the virus
To me, that’s evidence that older people are taking this seriously
I don’t think round 2 will have near the deaths of round 1
Young people don’t die as often as the old

If the next month follows the current trend, I think this will prove to be right. Elderly/At risk are taking the necessary precautions now that the data is out there about the virus and how serious it is for those groups. Younger/healthier people will take their chances and resume normal life. I would expect cases to rise as the country returns to some kind of normal, but I wouldn't expect the deaths to surge if the younger population is accounting for most of the cases.

[XPmpnII]

Can someone plz explain the logic behind wearing a mask? With all these stupid ass “guidelines” regarding it, I feel like it’s pretty obvious that common sense should take over for those that actually have any and it’s not hard to see how ridiculous the chit is

Pretty sure the only masks that would even help to a certain degree would be the N95 masks, but that cheap surgical throwaway chit from China and plain old cloth masks? Just fkin lol

It’s all about control..... not even about health and safety at this point cuz the chit doesn’t even make sense. CDC has done flip flopped on it idk how many times, there’s no science to back it and I don’t trust Fauci and some of these other ppl on it.... there’s even doctors that have came out saying it’s bullchit

[ANumber1]

extreme lockdown measures that has now crippled the economy

their cases were also very segregated. the entire country got hit but Lombardy region took a chunk of the cases/deaths.

Yeah, but remember why the cases are segregated. When Lombardy took off, they attempted to shut down northern Italy only and thousands and thousands of people fled south. The south of Italy is much poorer and their hospitals reflect that, so they shut down the south as well immediately to prevent the epidemic from gaining a foothold there at all. It seems to have largely succeeded.

You really think so? I don't. People are tired if being cooped up. People are out and about. People don't want to wear masks. All this, combined with the fact that there is a two week incubation period, and a huge pushback on measures....I see the numbers for round 2 being similar. Denial and defiance. Look how many people are calling this nothing when it's twice as bad as a bad flu season, and likely will be 3 times as bad.

I'm skeptical of people making good decisions about this for any sustained period. I wouldn't say there's a huge pushback here, most people saw what happened in NYC and realize it's serious, but they're also getting sloppy because we've mostly run it out of the county. Some local restaurants the staff is just wearing their mask around their neck as a fashion statement, etc. Now knowing that this isn't snuffing out for the summer and is getting a foothold down south, I'm guessing 80% chance we'll be doing the second wave at some point.

Can someone plz explain the logic behind wearing a mask? With all these stupid ass “guidelines” regarding it, I feel like it’s pretty obvious that common sense should take over for those that actually have any and it’s not hard to see how ridiculous the chit is

Pretty sure the only masks that would even help to a certain degree would be the N95 masks, but that cheap surgical throwaway chit from China and plain old cloth masks? Just fkin lol

It’s all about control..... not even about health and safety at this point cuz the chit doesn’t even make sense. CDC has done flip flopped on it idk how many times, there’s no science to back it and I don’t trust Fauci and some of these other ppl on it.... there’s even doctors that have came out saying it’s bullchit

It's pretty simple, and makes perfect sense.

An N95 mask is, by definition, 95% effective at filtration and that's great. However, if a cheap ad hoc mask is only 20% effective, if you and the other person are both wearing them, you've still filtered (100 - [100 * .8 * .8]) = 36%. The goal isn't to eliminate 100% of the spread - not practical - but to slow it enough the the epidemic stops growing, to reduce the R0 to 1 or lower. Shaving that much transmission off in a way that costs the economy nothing and asks almost nothing of people is low-hanging fruit and hopefully prevents resorting to another shutdown.

[maverickTT1]

Italy was a country that was starting to spiral out of control. What did they do differently than us? srs

The death chart in US is going downhill.

[taf1968]

I'm skeptical of people making good decisions about this for any sustained period. I wouldn't say there's a huge pushback here, most people saw what happened in NYC and realize it's serious, but they're also getting sloppy because we've mostly run it out of the county. Some local restaurants the staff is just wearing their mask around their neck as a fashion statement, etc. Now knowing that this isn't snuffing out for the summer and is getting a foothold down south, I'm guessing 80% chance we'll be doing the second wave at some point.

It's pretty simple, and makes perfect sense.

An N95 mask is, by definition, 95% effective at filtration and that's great. However, if a cheap ad hoc mask is only 20% effective, if you and the other person are both wearing them, you've still filtered (100 - [100 * .8 * .8]) = 36%. The goal isn't to eliminate 100% of the spread - not practical - but to slow it enough the the epidemic stops growing, to reduce the R0 to 1 or lower. Shaving that much transmission off in a way that costs the economy nothing and asks almost nothing of people is low-hanging fruit and hopefully prevents resorting to another shutdown.

I'm pretty much just assuming a second wave (probably flu season) and planning accordingly. Even if/when one hits I don't think we'll see the same panic and runs on stores that we did at first but it's smart to hedge bets on things that don't expire. Seems pretty clear that while this is (1) not nearly as lethal as feared at the beginning, it's also (2) not going to go away anytime soon. People have short memories and short tolerance periods for doing things like wearing masks. They'll get more and more complacent over time and that probably keeps things interesting until we either get a vaccine or it burns out (or mutates to something even more mild).

I'm pretty amazed by how few people wear masks at the gym. Pretty good crowds and I'm usually one of only a handful of people wearing a mask at all, much less a decent one. I usually wear an N95 or at least one of the N90/KN90 masks that I have. It's a little harder to breathe and it gets a little hot/sweaty, but it's really a pretty minor inconvenience. I think there's some combination of "I don't want to be uncomfortable when working out", "I'm not in the high risk groups", and "its just flu bro" going on there. I'm 52 and in pretty decent health--but I want to avoid catching it, so I'll skew my odds in my favor wherever possible.

I do think things need to stay opened up where possible, but the smarter people are about it, the better it can be handled on so many levels. The Spanish Flu took off when people thought it was over and/or stopped being as careful and concerned. This isn't the Spanish Flu, but the same human nature tendencies could extend this and make it pretty bad agan.

[Plateauplower]

Can someone plz explain the logic behind wearing a mask? With all these stupid ass “guidelines” regarding it, I feel like it’s pretty obvious that common sense should take over for those that actually have any and it’s not hard to see how ridiculous the chit is

Pretty sure the only masks that would even help to a certain degree would be the N95 masks, but that cheap surgical throwaway chit from China and plain old cloth masks? Just fkin lol

It’s all about control..... not even about health and safety at this point cuz the chit doesn’t even make sense. CDC has done flip flopped on it idk how many times, there’s no science to back it and I don’t trust Fauci and some of these other ppl on it.... there’s even doctors that have came out saying it’s bullchit

There are plenty of studies (pre-covid) that evaluated the efficacy of wearing masks for prevention of viral respiratory infection transmission in hospitals (common) . One found that surgical/procedural masks prevent 95% of nosocomial upper respiratory illness and the N95 use was 97%. Neither surgical nor N95 masks are going to filter out actual virus particles, you would need a Level A suit with SCBA for that. They do prevent most of the users respiratory secretions from escaping when worn correctly.

[MEDITATE]

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSZ8N2BQ01N

[5x10]

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSZ8N2BQ01N

at this point, why are you referencing the WHO?

[MEDITATE]

at this point, why are you referencing the WHO?

I know theyre owned by the chinese but based on worldmeter i guess they are right .. so why wouldnt i mention them...why whats your take on this news. You dnt think its legit?

[5x10]

I know theyre owned by the chinese but based on worldmeter i guess they are right .. so why wouldnt i mention them...why whats your take on this news. You dnt think its legit?

cases are rising
Mainly the young are getting it
Deaths will continue to fall
That’s my forecast

Looking back, the lockdowns were unnecessary
I know hindsight is 20/20 but we should have just sheltered the old
Strange how every country made the same mistake

[awwchit2]

Cases will go up once everyone goes out.

I don’t get why this is breaking news. It just shows masks aren’t doing chit when your hands are dirty.

Just let it run rampant and achieve herd immunity. Hospitals are empty af and many nurses have been laid off.

Idgaf anymore I was out in Santa Monica and many people were too. Like 50/50 masked/unmasked. But when going into stores you need one.

Life must go on.

[MEDITATE]

cases are rising
Mainly the young are getting it
Deaths will continue to fall
That’s my forecast

Looking back, the lockdowns were unnecessary
I know hindsight is 20/20 but we should have just sheltered the old
Strange how every country made the same mistake

Well if you look at new york.... the 18 to 40 age range .... the mortality % wasnt low at all........ and even at 2 to 4 % death rate...... the long term effect and vital organs failure/ scaring due to covid is problamatic even for the young and healthy

[HtotheOV]

Can someone plz explain the logic behind wearing a mask? With all these stupid ass “guidelines” regarding it, I feel like it’s pretty obvious that common sense should take over for those that actually have any and it’s not hard to see how ridiculous the chit is

Pretty sure the only masks that would even help to a certain degree would be the N95 masks, but that cheap surgical throwaway chit from China and plain old cloth masks? Just fkin lol

It’s all about control..... not even about health and safety at this point cuz the chit doesn’t even make sense. CDC has done flip flopped on it idk how many times, there’s no science to back it and I don’t trust Fauci and some of these other ppl on it.... there’s even doctors that have came out saying it’s bullchit

I’m more confused by the complete opposite viewpoints of them from medical experts

it seems like a basic concept of whether wearing a mask is useful or not yet I’ve seen opposite viewpoints from doctors/nurses

[5x10]

Well if you look at new york.... the 18 to 40 age range .... the mortality % wasnt low at all........ and even at 2 to 4 % death rate...... the long term effect and vital organs failure/ scaring due to covid is problamatic even for the young and healthy

where are you seeing. 2-4% death rate for that age range?

Using this site, scroll down to bottom chart, looking at 18-44 bracket, take deaths per 100k (20.48) and divide it by # of cases per 100k (2263)
Gives me a .009 death rate

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

[charity4thepoor]

where are you seeing. 2-4% death rate for that age range?

Using this site, scroll down to bottom chart, looking at 18-44 bracket, take deaths per 100k (20.48) and divide it by # of cases per 100k (2263)
Gives me a .009 death rate

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

He doesn't understand the difference between distribution of deaths and death rate (SRS).

[taf1968]

I’m more confused by the complete opposite viewpoints of them from medical experts

it seems like a basic concept of whether wearing a mask is useful or not yet I’ve seen opposite viewpoints from doctors/nurses

I think at least some of that (maybe a lot of that) is that they want the PPE supplies to be plentiful for them. Kind of a "well, you don't really need it but medical professionals do".

Fauci basically came out and admitted that the reason they said you don't need masks at the outset was about supply and not whether they helped or not.

[taf1968]

where are you seeing. 2-4% death rate for that age range?

Using this site, scroll down to bottom chart, looking at 18-44 bracket, take deaths per 100k (20.48) and divide it by # of cases per 100k (2263)
Gives me a .009 death rate

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

In CO, 90% of the deaths are 60+ years old (80+ are over 70) . . . and over half those deaths are in residential care facilities. If you're not in those groups, the death rate is really low, especially if you're under 50.

[MEDITATE]

where are you seeing. 2-4% death rate for that age range?

Using this site, scroll down to bottom chart, looking at 18-44 bracket, take deaths per 100k (20.48) and divide it by # of cases per 100k (2263)
Gives me a .009 death rate

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

below is the data collected for the state of ny .its the total number of deaths till the 15th of june ... its the standard statistical inference for the state of ny only

He doesn't understand the difference between distribution of deaths and death rate (SRS).

i really feel sorry for you

[deltakappabrah]

share of deaths is not death rate

mental gymnastics is strong here smh

[5x10]

below is the data collected for the state of ny .its the total number of deaths till the 15th of june ... its the standard statistical inference for the state of ny only


I really feel sorry for you

You’re talking about the % of total deaths being in the 18-44 bracket
Take age bracket deaths / total deaths

I’m talking about the % of people that died, within a specific age bracket
In other words, how likely is someone in the 18-44 bracket going to die if they get covid
Take total deaths/ total cases, within that specific bracket

[MEDITATE]

You’re talking about the % of total deaths being in the 18-44 bracket
Take age bracket deaths / total deaths

I’m talking about the % of people that died, within a specific age bracket
In other words, how likely is someone in the 18-44 bracket going to die if they get covid
Take total deaths/ total cases, within that specific bracket

Hence me saying... "in the state of ny" and if anything.... people shouldnt compare themselves to the total deaths..... if we are working with everyone logic aka "total death" .... everyone should compare the death rate per the state we live in

[5x10]

Hence me saying... "in the state of ny" and if anything.... people shouldnt compare themselves to the total deaths..... if we are working with everyone logic aka "total death" .... everyone should compare the death rate per the state we live in

the location of the deaths don’t matter, I just used Ny since you mentioned it

I don’t think using the death rate for a state is accurate, as the older age bands HEAVILY skew the death rate
Why wouldnt you look at your specific age bracket to determine your risk?

[MEDITATE]

the location of the deaths don’t matter, I just used Ny since you mentioned it

I don’t think using the death rate for a state is accurate, as the older age bands HEAVILY skew the death rate
Why wouldnt you look at your specific age bracket to determine your risk?

i do but its not accurate .....cause if you look at data collected as a whole, the numbers would fall to the side of the bell curve aka a global deviated data away from the mean or the "under the bell curve".

take NY as an example. the sample data taken from NY vs the overall data by age range [18 - 44] is 3.9% vs 0.1%.0.2%

[charity4thepoor]

below is the data collected for the state of ny .its the total number of deaths till the 15th of june ... its the standard statistical inference for the state of ny only








i really feel sorry for you

1000 people die from covid. How many are in the range 18-44 according to that chart?

[5x10]

i do but its not accurate .....cause if you look at data collected as a whole, the numbers would fall to the side of the bell curve aka a global deviated data away from the mean or the "under the bell curve".

take NY as an example. the sample data taken from NY vs the overall data by age range [18 - 44] is 3.9% vs 0.1%.0.2%

right, the % of total deaths in the 18- 44 is 3.9%

That doesn’t mean you have a 3.9% chance of dying if you get it
That # is actually .009, or less than 1%

[MEDITATE]

right, the % of total deaths in the 18- 44 is 3.9%

That doesn’t mean you have a 3.9% chance of dying if you get it
That # is actually .009, or less than 1%

Correct....

And the Chances of dieing by covid isnt clear yet ...theres tons of variables that we cant take into consideration

[BuildKing]

5x10 is right

4% is how many % of people from the ones who died were between those ages

Actual death rate means how many ppl that are infected end up dead

According to that chart its:

0.9% for 18-44
5.2% for 45-64
17% for 65-74
35% for 75+

[5x10]

Correct....

And the Chances of dieing by covid isnt clear yet ...theres tons of variables that we cant take into consideration

its 30x less than what we were initially told , for the 18-44 age band

[MEDITATE]

its 30x less than what we were initially told , for the 18-44 age band

How did you come up with this number?

[5x10]

How did you come up with this number?

we were told that covid had a 3% death rate
.009(18-44 age band death rate )/.03(Death rate as advertised)= .3 = 30%