**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[stockbruh]

stock price on it's own has very little meaning. $900 vs $21 does not determine value nor cheap vs. expensive

how far it's run up also has very little meaning, as does how far it's been beaten down. to say that it does assumes you know where the top or bottom is. you can predict where support and resistance is but you have no way to know what lies after that. it's somewhat meaningful for a trade but not as primary factors for investing.

while we're at it, high risk also does not mean high reward

So if I only have 5000$ to invest and I put it into a 900$ stock, it goes up 100$ to 1000$, that makes me 550$. If I instead buy PLTR at 21$ and it runs up just 3$ I make 714$. I’m new to investing and my math skills are horrible but idk to me it makes more sense to grab PLTR if that math is correct, not to mention I could also sell covered calls on those shares I’d never be able to sell them on nvidia

[RobParks2M]

So if I only have 5000$ to invest and I put it into a 900$ stock, it goes up 100$ to 1000$, that makes me 550$. If I instead buy PLTR at 21$ and it runs up just 3$ I make 714$. I’m new to investing and my math skills are horrible but idk to me it makes more sense to grab PLTR if that math is correct, not to mention I could also sell covered calls on those shares I’d never be able to sell them on nvidia

Or you could buy FNMA for $1.50 and when it pops to $4 on Trump trade you'll net $8,333.33

Not srs




Semi-srs

[baroni01]

What do you guys suggest for the average Target Date Joe like me? Any moves so I don't go broke as far as 401 and roth contributions?

[RobParks2M]

What do you guys suggest for the average Target Date Joe like me? Any moves so I don't go broke as far as 401 and roth contributions?

Max 'em out fam.

Srs though we are in an unusual time where buying long dated bond funds actually makes sense and has the potential to appreciate dramatically. Read what I said above about TLT. At worst the fund drops down to around $83/share which is a 6% drop. Once rates start falling 10-20% gains could easily be achieved. The best part to me is the fact that if/when this happens there will be an equal and opposite drop in the equity market. Either that, or we will have achieved stagflation which would be pretty terrible as well. I guess with full disclosure there is a very small chance they are forced to do something dramatically to prevent stagflation at which point they could bump interest rates up to 6 or 6.5% to crash economy. Even so, once this has been successfully done they'll cut rates quickly. Unsure how far that would drop TLT. If rates went to 6% on 20 year for example I think that could drop TLT to roughly $73 or so which implies around 17% drop. If they do it I promise SPY drops more though.

[usersignup2]

So if I only have 5000$ to invest and I put it into a 900$ stock, it goes up 100$ to 1000$, that makes me 550$. If I instead buy PLTR at 21$ and it runs up just 3$ I make 714$. I’m new to investing and my math skills are horrible but idk to me it makes more sense to grab PLTR if that math is correct, not to mention I could also sell covered calls on those shares I’d never be able to sell them on nvidia

you're not making a fair and accurate comparison though.

If NVDA and PLTR each increase 10% in stock price, your gains will be equal.

you're correct that you could sell covered calls on PLTR with your 5k but not NVDA, but as a criteria on it's own for stock picking it could be a losing strategy in the long run. at the very minimum for investing you should consider:
why do you want to buy this stock?
When will you sell it?
what happens if it doesn't go as planned
- amongst a whole lot of other things.

but absolute price alone should be way way down on your list.
imagine you want to buy a car. what do you do? research. how do you know what a good price is? do you buy a car based on how much you can afford? maybe. what if you had 5k and someone showed you a 1972 Lada with 300,000 miles for $2000 and a 2020 Toyota Corolla for $5000. Is the Lada better because it's cheaper? You need to put the same effort into stock picking as you would other purchases. Imagine you went through your entire life throwing 2k here and there on junk cars every year, thinking "oh, it's only a few grand, I can afford it". Crazy right? People do that all the time with stocks.

[2020Wellness]

What do you guys suggest for the average Target Date Joe like me? Any moves so I don't go broke as far as 401 and roth contributions?

What funds will your 401 contributions be invested into? I’d look into their expense ratios.

Generally, at least contribute enough to get the full match.

Also, max out the Roth each year.

If you’re going into a self-managed taxable account after that, I recommend a simple 3-4 fund portfolio approach.

My personal four are VOO, VUG, VYM, and BND.

[stockbruh]

you're not making a fair and accurate comparison though.

If NVDA and PLTR each increase 10% in stock price, your gains will be equal.

you're correct that you could sell covered calls on PLTR with your 5k but not NVDA, but as a criteria on it's own for stock picking it could be a losing strategy in the long run. at the very minimum for investing you should consider:
why do you want to buy this stock?
When will you sell it?
what happens if it doesn't go as planned
- amongst a whole lot of other things.

but absolute price alone should be way way down on your list.
imagine you want to buy a car. what do you do? research. how do you know what a good price is? do you buy a car based on how much you can afford? maybe. what if you had 5k and someone showed you a 1972 Lada with 300,000 miles for $2000 and a 2020 Toyota Corolla for $5000. Is the Lada better because it's cheaper? You need to put the same effort into stock picking as you would other purchases. Imagine you went through your entire life throwing 2k here and there on junk cars every year, thinking "oh, it's only a few grand, I can afford it". Crazy right? People do that all the time with stocks.

Intresting, I will think about what you said, I appreciate the advice, always looking to learn more about investing

[GeneralSerpant]

Intresting, I will think about what you said, I appreciate the advice, always looking to learn more about investing

Palantir is just an interesting case. People are comparing them to Microsoft in its outset, but that's all potential and based on the budding status where the company's at. Applying that to short term it seems rather confident all things considered but subject to the same issue.

[friesbruh]

anyone think NVDA is gonna dip again? chit was just as $762 like 10 days ago n now is at $878.

itchin' to buy some more.

[SipNPiz]

Back into SMMT for the third time, usually make 150-250% gains each time I get back in.

[RobParks2M]

Sofi forgot to end world hunger so 10% dip despite beating every Q1 metric and a moderately conservative Q2 guide will naturally crash price. I'm guessing the option crush is really the primarily reason for the dip, but that is fine anyway. My $7 CSP are holding out well for June so I'll just keep holding. Was paid $80 each so no worries there.

DJT haven't continued moving on puts yet. Just too expensive to justify right now perhaps later today or maybe tomorrow I'll start. Wish I could remember how long it takes the EFFECT to drop, but after sleeping on it I think its closer to a month. I'll probably end up getting a few puts later this week but really starting to consider that next week is more likely. Tempted to try selling calls to fund the puts, but would really hate to get absolutely annihilated playing that game.

[GeneralSerpant]

anyone think NVDA is gonna dip again? chit was just as $762 like 10 days ago n now is at $878.

itchin' to buy some more.

Between now and the 30th yeah. I’m guessing it will go down $20-50.

[_zman]

What funds will your 401 contributions be invested into? I’d look into their expense ratios.

Generally, at least contribute enough to get the full match.

Also, max out the Roth each year.

If you’re going into a self-managed taxable account after that, I recommend a simple 3-4 fund portfolio approach.

My personal four are VOO, VUG, VYM, and BND.

This. The expense ratios add up over time and are a very important component that are often overlooked. Look for the index funds available to you and in general, avoid the actively managed funds.

[GeneralSerpant]

I have two stocks with earnings reports today and have loaded them accordingly. So far they are both rising like bread and am vey curious to see what happens as it is a first real gamble move for me.

[RobParks2M]

Loaded some DJT $35 puts at $30 for $18-20 and $35 at $50-55 roughly 20 total exp Friday.


Look at the warrant spread from shares it’s juicy as faurrrrk. The second that EFFECT drops I’m buying all the warrants I can muster and then shorting DJT shares and exercising warrants to consume dat dere spread and cover my short position. Warrant pricing tells me shares will likely hit $32ish once effect is in place.

[SipNPiz]

What does it mean when volume is shooting up like crazy but there is nothing in the order book. I’m looking at SCPX and there is only bid of 6 x .20 but somehow there has been 4m shares of volume? When I look at the order book is it only my brokerage I can see?

[stockbruh]

Any thoughts on SoFi tanking after earnings? Managed to get out right when the market opened for a 6$ gain

[Lefticle]

Any thoughts on SoFi tanking after earnings? Managed to get out right when the market opened for a 6$ gain

Sofi: *Amazing earnings report*

Also, Sofi: *Stock price tanks*

[stockbruh]

A little worried about my PLTR 27$ calls, these stocks are tanking after good earnings reports, looks like if your not doing a buyback or dividend, stock goes down

[GeneralSerpant]

Any thoughts on SoFi tanking after earnings? Managed to get out right when the market opened for a 6$ gain

I’m not surprised, considering.

[taf1968]

Any thoughts on SoFi tanking after earnings? Managed to get out right when the market opened for a 6$ gain

SOFI frequently drops at (or right after) earnings. Own some and am holding . . . I think it will be a good pick long term. But YMMV.

[2020Wellness]

This. The expense ratios add up over time and are a very important component that are often overlooked. Look for the index funds available to you and in general, avoid the actively managed funds.

Hopefully Baroni sees my post and this one!

[RobParks2M]

SOFI frequently drops at (or right after) earnings. Own some and am holding . . . I think it will be a good pick long term. But YMMV.

Yeah if I had to guess I'd presume the reason there is always big moves is due to lopsided options trading around earnings time. Seems like it either rips at the open and then retraces soon after or dumps then reverts back to mean within a couple weeks. Either way I feel very content with net positive earnings, Mid 20% growth, and surprisingly seeing book value making a solid gain into the $4 territory. I like how diverse their business is and I am a big fan of Noto who always has the right thing to say and does the right thing very consistently.


In other trading news someone decided to sell me quite a few NYCB $2P for May 17 strike at $3 each. I may or may not have around 500 of those contracts now... Really gotta hope they release earnings soon and it sucks with bad guidance to boot. The radio silence on when they will release earnings is hopefully telling and I think they gotta have it done by 5/10 so I am really hoping that is the case. Unsure how I ended up with so many extremely short term plays, but I am hoping it somehow works out for one of them.

[Lefticle]

Just absolutely god damn fkn LOL if you aren't leveraging your home into SOFI rn

[GeneralSerpant]

Just absolutely god damn fkn LOL if you aren't leveraging your home into SOFI rn

True.

[Abzu]

Just absolutely god damn fkn LOL if you aren't leveraging your home into SOFI rn

Lol lmk when Sofi goes under $6 then I'll think about it lol

[RobParks2M]

Lol lmk when Sofi goes under $6 then I'll think about it lol

I too liked it at $5


EDIT: HNNNNNNNNNGGGGGG this NYCB dip. I may or may not have around 800 puts lmfao almost ITM on the 2.50s

[stockbruh]

The last 10 months sure were fun looks like it’s downhill from here

[RobParks2M]

No one got any thoughts on plays I've been posting?

NYCB they announced AH today that they are posting earnings tomorrow before market open... So there is absolutely 0 chance for anyone to hedge with options before earnings are announced... pretty scummy move if you ask me. To me, this doesn't mean they have good news, but perhaps they pulled off a miracle at the last minute. They have NEVER announced earnings this late where they put up earnings in May. I've managed to stay pretty resigned to the fact odds aren't great that the shares drop below $2 by next week, but a man can dream.

[kusok]

A little worried about my PLTR 27$ calls, these stocks are tanking after good earnings reports, looks like if your not doing a buyback or dividend, stock goes down

You bought out of money and probably short term. That’s called lotto. For a reason. You crazey boyo?