**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[bsmit107]

Just curious- why buy a bank that is certainly going to show a significant drop in deposits and has tarnished its name vs buying a legacy bank or a newer digital bank like Sofi. If you were in need of a new bank to work with why would you go open a new account at FRC?

Meanwhile sofi is going to show record deposit growth and has had insane luck in terms of timing the market. They didn’t get their charter until after crappy bond yield disappeared and even then used their money to write personal and vehicle loans which they bundled and sold to get off their books. They don’t have big exposure to commercial real estate. They just recently bought a home mortgage company for likely pennies on the dollar. As if this isn’t enough they have some of the best fintech applications for banking infrastructure in technysis and Galileo.

As if all that isn’t good enough their target market is the people they’ve drawn in from student loan refinancing. These people are obviously college educated and I really think they more specifically target people based on the type of education they got like Stem degree holders. I think they are well insulated from defaults. I thought their valuation at $10/share was reasonable when they went public and I think it’s still good at $5-6 too. I’m still selling CSPs at $5 whenever they get below $5.50 I’ll take assignment if and when it happens.


@Carbon it’s an all or nothing for earnings. Either they rocket to $20-30 or they hit ATL. If I guessed the odds I’d say 25% chance they post well received earnings. 75% chance it tanks and it causes renewed concern for their ability to stay afloat without the $30 billion loan from big banks.

Because it was a yolo, not much DD done, I like this chart, lets swing it purchase.

I ended up caving at about 3:30 yesterday and sold at 15.75

The more I thought about it and thought about past experiences like this, I figured it's better to lock in at what was real than to lose it....and I'd rather be upset that I made less money than I could have than lost what was actually there at one time.

[2020Wellness]

Scored a couple of 10% wins on AMZN and GOOG recently. Nothing huge, but gains are gains.

[RobParks2M]

Scored a couple of 10% wins on AMZN and GOOG recently. Nothing huge, but gains are gains.

Solid gains on “boring” blue chips!

Sofi just bumped their savings rate to 4.20% ayy lmao. I shifted some of my savings to SGOV just to see how it works. I should see something like an extra .5% vs just a savings account.


Otherwise I’m just chilling. Nothing worth doing right now

[Abzu]

Huge couple weeks coming up and this thread is talking about YOLO plays on a collapsing bank lol.

[RobParks2M]

Rob do you have any idea on SABS announcement timing? With breakthrough designation it only takes 60 days for FDA approval, but I'm curious what kind of timeline we're looking at for SABS to even present data to FDA.

When you apply for breakthrough designation they have 60 days to approve or deny. They are in phase 2B currently for the flu pab. My hope is they shift to rolling 2b-phase 3 enrollment to complete trial by March of next year and the treatment is available for flu season 2024. In the mean time I really want to see their C. Diff treatment get rolling and hit phase 2 and hopefully once again they apply for breakthrough designation.

I really think if they had more money they could get their Covid treatment through as well with a new patient population and different endpoints for the trial. I don’t know how much interest there is from biopharma majors to partner for it though.

[RobParks2M]

So you're saying the expectation is that big news will drop next year around March? Shoot, thought we'd be hearing something within the next few months..

We likely hear something about their phase 2B trial in the next few months. I mean full approval for use next year. There will still be announcements for milestones and such being reached.

[Carbonfibre]

FRC dead.

here comes another bailout



keep bidding nvda and msft though cause that fixes everything.

[RobParks2M]

FRC dead.

here comes another bailout



keep bidding nvda and msft though cause that fixes everything.

Nah they let this one die. They’ve made it clear this won’t lead to dominos falling. It’s just another one off. If PACW has bad results tomorrow it’ll lead to lots of concern again though…

@Tug every phase closer to approval adds a lot of value to a small cap biopharma company that doesn’t have an approved product. Once they get one product through it opens up a lot of opportunity because you have to price in never getting off the ground which is the case for almost all small cap new drug makers. Right now they are priced as though there is a near certainty it will go under before they get a product to market. I was ready to agree and write my holdings off entirely before they got the breakthrough therapy designation.

For SABS and their flu treatment they are 2B which puts them at between 23-30% chance of getting approved based strictly on statistics of the number of drugs that get to phase 2. Getting to phase 3 puts them at 59% chance of getting approved. The accelerated review will help both compress and shorten the cash flow curve so that will help too.

Also I’ll throw in there I am probably expecting trial completions far quicker than normal. Usually phase 2 takes 2 years, phase 3 2.5 years and NDA 0.8 years but fast track will cut those significantly and infectious disease stuff gets through faster usually.

[Carbonfibre]

They will not let it die.

FDIC will be up that shiit again by end of day.


Probably going to the we backing all deposits shiit.



Market is finally risk off.


Microsoft and Google big boys report earnings today if they can dump that / market going lower.

[bsmit107]

For those of you who DCA in ETF's regularly.....how do you determine when to deviate and drop a larger sum into it due to a drop in the market?

Do you use %'s or is it just a feel thing like "well, my per unit $ is X and it's cheaper than that, so ill buy 10 more today" or whatever.

Reason being, I'm relatively late to the party but have been focusing on DCA'ing lately. Started with a $25k sum split between VOOG, VYM & VUG with another 30k sitting on the sidelines waiting to see if the next few weeks will offer much lower prices.....with a day like today is it worth just staying the course or making an "off schedule" purchase more shares at lets say $3 cheaper?

These are all 15-20 year holds (unless something crazy happens) and I have a rainy day fund of about a years worth of expenses....and I know that in 15 years a few bucks might not make much of a difference, I just feel like I need to load heavy on the front end and then kind of let it ride buying a few of each every month, but I just want to get the best prices I can over the next 6months-year.

Part of me can see another 2-3k drop in the DOW very soon and the other part sees a 2-3k+ jump b/c clown world and money printer go brrrrrrr/inflation and rising prices.

[2020Wellness]

Solid gains on “boring” blue chips!

Sofi just bumped their savings rate to 4.20% ayy lmao. I shifted some of my savings to SGOV just to see how it works. I should see something like an extra .5% vs just a savings account.


Otherwise I’m just chilling. Nothing worth doing right now

Oh, I found that highest rate bank I was talking about. It's UBF and it's currently at 4.8%.

My VMFXX is hanging right in there with it this whole time though.

[RobParks2M]

Oh, I found that highest rate bank I was talking about. It's UBF and it's currently at 4.8%.

My VMFXX is hanging right in there with it this whole time though.

If sofi had VLFXX I’d be all over that, but SGOV appears to be right there around 4.7% or so.

[2020Wellness]

For those of you who DCA in ETF's regularly.....how do you determine when to deviate and drop a larger sum into it due to a drop in the market?

Do you use %'s or is it just a feel thing like "well, my per unit $ is X and it's cheaper than that, so ill buy 10 more today" or whatever.

Reason being, I'm relatively late to the party but have been focusing on DCA'ing lately. Started with a $25k sum split between VOOG, VYM & VUG with another 30k sitting on the sidelines waiting to see if the next few weeks will offer much lower prices.....with a day like today is it worth just staying the course or making an "off schedule" purchase more shares at lets say $3 cheaper?

These are all 15-20 year holds (unless something crazy happens) and I have a rainy day fund of about a years worth of expenses....and I know that in 15 years a few bucks might not make much of a difference, I just feel like I need to load heavy on the front end and then kind of let it ride and just want to get the best prices I can over the next 6months-year.

If you're DCA'ing then you're really just buying a set amount no matter what the prices are at, IMO. You set your schedule and stick to it unless something drastic happens.

For example, I DCA weekly and buy the same four funds at the same percentages every Friday. I allocate 20% of my pre-tax income each week. That's it.

The only times I've gone in harder was March 2020 (went in majorly there) and then May 22 (went in pretty hard there too). Outside of those bigger influxes, it's 20% pre-tax income per week.

15% BND
85% split evenly between VOO, VUG, VYM

[bsmit107]

If you're DCA'ing then you're really just buying a set amount no matter what the prices are at, IMO. You set your schedule and stick to it unless something drastic happens.

For example, I DCA weekly and buy the same four funds at the same percentages every Friday. I allocate 20% of my pre-tax income each week. That's it.

The only times I've gone in harder was March 2020 (went in majorly there) and then May 22 (went in pretty hard there too). Outside of those bigger influxes, it's 20% pre-tax income per week.

15% BND
85% split evenly between VOO, VUG, VYM

Right. I guess my current situation is a little different than DCA'ing for the short term future.

I feel like I'm just behind....until recently in life I wasn't really in a position to invest (outside of company 401K) and now at 37 I feel way behind. I didn't do anything in 2020 and that's really when I just started paying attention to the market because I was actually saving a decent amount of money every month. I basically want to have put the $55k (that I have set aside for this purpose) into the market ASAP but I'm not just going to drop it in all at once, blow my load then in 6 months we're balls deep in recession and I could have been picking shares up at deep discounts but I have no funds to do it outside of a few thousand unless I dip into my "catastrophe" fund.

I dunno man, just overthinking it I guess. I'm sure 2043 me will be happy I put anything in there at all when the DOW is at 77k. lol

[SipNPiz]

Any one got straddles open for msft?

[Carbonfibre]

Any one got straddles open for msft?

too expensive


if you want to play do QQQ instead (msft/goog) are 25%ish percent weight of QQQ


everything today got very expensive cause FRC caused another risk off event.

[2020Wellness]

Right. I guess my current situation is a little different than DCA'ing for the short term future.

I feel like I'm just behind....until recently in life I wasn't really in a position to invest (outside of company 401K) and now at 37 I feel way behind. I didn't do anything in 2020 and that's really when I just started paying attention to the market because I was actually saving a decent amount of money every month. I basically want to have put the $55k (that I have set aside for this purpose) into the market ASAP but I'm not just going to drop it in all at once, blow my load then in 6 months we're balls deep in recession and I could have been picking shares up at deep discounts but I have no funds to do it outside of a few thousand unless I dip into my "catastrophe" fund.

I dunno man, just overthinking it I guess. I'm sure 2043 me will be happy I put anything in there at all when the DOW is at 77k. lol

I'm not talking about short term either. Everything I said is retirement accounts and I haven't sold a single fund share, ever.

Look into the studies on lump sum investing versus DCA'ing. They point to investing them money, if it's a long term account, when you have it as being more profitable in the end.

If it makes you feel better, I started behind too. In 2020 I was about your current age and had nothing major in an actual brokerage account. I went in hard with 80k between instantly maxing out my 2019-2020 Roth accounts and then going into a mixture of stock and bond funds. 2021 I maxed out the Roth without any further buys. 2022 I maxed out the Roth, but started buying heavily in May. To give you an idea of how heavily, I went from $0.00 in a Vanguard account to currently 110k in it as it sits right now.

Now I have a nice source of passive income (dividends) right around $100/week constantly working for me since they're being 100% reinvested. And also, I'm just going to continue buying weekly and watching everything grow over time, which I've been doing since May 2022.

Hopefully my experience helps you start yours.

[RobParks2M]

Microsoft and google to the rescue! Gigacaps continue to hold up the markets

[Carbonfibre]

phuckers

always hiding in big tech


just when it looked like good multi day sell was gonna go down

they manage to dip buy msft/goog


this after hours pop is still not real until tmmrw RTH.

who knows what they say in conference call tonight



chipotle is all time high after hours

where is the inflation there wtff

[_zman]

I'm not talking about short term either. Everything I said is retirement accounts and I haven't sold a single fund share, ever.

Look into the studies on lump sum investing versus DCA'ing. They point to investing them money, if it's a long term account, when you have it as being more profitable in the end.

If it makes you feel better, I started behind too. In 2020 I was about your current age and had nothing major in an actual brokerage account. I went in hard with 80k between instantly maxing out my 2019-2020 Roth accounts and then going into a mixture of stock and bond funds. 2021 I maxed out the Roth without any further buys. 2022 I maxed out the Roth, but started buying heavily in May. To give you an idea of how heavily, I went from $0.00 in a Vanguard account to currently 110k in it as it sits right now.

Now I have a nice source of passive income (dividends) right around $100/week constantly working for me since they're being 100% reinvested. And also, I'm just going to continue buying weekly and watching everything grow over time, which I've been doing since May 2022.

Hopefully my experience helps you start yours.

Although I agree with DCA, dumping a lump sum in a clown market or an economy that could still be a question mark seems like a bad move as the recession looms. It could also be a bit outdated. As others have pointed out, the value of the S&P 500 is mostly composed of a few tech companies. If I were to do lump sum, I'd pick out a few good companies or small/midcap, VHT, or VCR. Although VCR isn't performing well now, it has over time. Same with VHT. With an aging population, I need to start buying that or the mutual fund equivalent.

Since I've been in this situation recently, I just continue to DCA to reduce the stress during a downturn and losing 20%. I blew a lot of my cash on a new car to travel more and enjoy doing it. I just want to enjoy my money now.

WSJ had a good article of people who won't ever retire. Honestly, I'm not sure if I see myself retiring although or going part time in retirement as a consultant. I'm on pace to retire in my late 50s if I continue to invest at this rate. Then what...if I sat around all day or doing the same hobbies, I don't think it's going to be enjoyable, but I could be wrong. I'm actually considering scaling back, get the 401k match and start investing in a home/land when the rates come down. I'm putting away 2.5k a month into investments. I think I'd rather have a mountain view and watch it appreciate.

[Carbonfibre]

MSFT is flying crazy after hours.

Too much AI.


MSFT should overtake Apple by market cap soon.

[Abzu]

This is shocking... yawn

[Travis99]

MSFT is flying crazy after hours.

Too much AI.


MSFT should overtake Apple by market cap soon.

I knew msft were gonna be the AI people.

Chatgpt is far superior to the other models.

[2020Wellness]

Although I agree with DCA, dumping a lump sum in a clown market or an economy that could still be a question mark seems like a bad move as the recession looms. It could also be a bit outdated. As others have pointed out, the value of the S&P 500 is mostly composed of a few tech companies. If I were to do lump sum, I'd pick out a few good companies or small/midcap, VHT, or VCR. Although VCR isn't performing well now, it has over time. Same with VHT. With an aging population, I need to start buying that or the mutual fund equivalent.

Since I've been in this situation recently, I just continue to DCA to reduce the stress during a downturn and losing 20%. I blew a lot of my cash on a new car to travel more and enjoy doing it. I just want to enjoy my money now.

WSJ had a good article of people who won't ever retire. Honestly, I'm not sure if I see myself retiring although or going part time in retirement as a consultant. I'm on pace to retire in my late 50s if I continue to invest at this rate. Then what...if I sat around all day or doing the same hobbies, I don't think it's going to be enjoyable, but I could be wrong. I'm actually considering scaling back, get the 401k match and start investing in a home/land when the rates come down. I'm putting away 2.5k a month into investments. I think I'd rather have a mountain view and watch it appreciate.

I don't see myself retiring either. When you're someone who runs their own business and believes that we must always have a purpose in life, retiring isn't a thing. I'll never stop working on something that makes me money and my wife has the same views, so I don't see it as an option.

BTW, very nice savings rate at 2.5k per month!!

[taf1968]

Nah they let this one die. They’ve made it clear this won’t lead to dominos falling. It’s just another one off. If PACW has bad results tomorrow it’ll lead to lots of concern again though…

@Tug every phase closer to approval adds a lot of value to a small cap biopharma company that doesn’t have an approved product. Once they get one product through it opens up a lot of opportunity because you have to price in never getting off the ground which is the case for almost all small cap new drug makers. Right now they are priced as though there is a near certainty it will go under before they get a product to market. I was ready to agree and write my holdings off entirely before they got the breakthrough therapy designation.

For SABS and their flu treatment they are 2B which puts them at between 23-30% chance of getting approved based strictly on statistics of the number of drugs that get to phase 2. Getting to phase 3 puts them at 59% chance of getting approved. The accelerated review will help both compress and shorten the cash flow curve so that will help too.

Also I’ll throw in there I am probably expecting trial completions far quicker than normal. Usually phase 2 takes 2 years, phase 3 2.5 years and NDA 0.8 years but fast track will cut those significantly and infectious disease stuff gets through faster usually.

PACW says their deposits have stabilized. Running up pre-market.

[RobParks2M]

PACW says their deposits have stabilized. Running up pre-market.

Exactly. So they’ll let FRC die.

Activision/msft tie up blocked in UK. Ufff for atvi shareholders

[Carbonfibre]

Rumors are already heavy that FRC won't even make it to Friday before FDIC shuts them down.


I dunno feels like another SVB in making.

It will die but they will back depositors again.


You can just watch BTC movement.

[RobParks2M]

Rumors are already heavy that FRC won't even make it to Friday before FDIC shuts them down.


I dunno feels like another SVB in making.

It will die but they will back depositors again.


You can just watch BTC movement.

Yup. It shouldn’t cause any further problems… unless big bank “depositors” don’t get their funds back 😂

[Carbonfibre]

yeah I think every dumb bank doing stupid shiit now wants protection


https://nypost.com/2023/04/26/first-...keeps-falling/

[Venom08]

I picked up some TSLA puts near the close yesterday. So far so good. This thing is gonna go down to retest the lows.