**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Carbonfibre]

nah.

tesla EPS is pure meme.

they claimed last quarter that tesla will have 50% growth / yearly for next 10 years.

that is something that you could expect if you were small tiny startup

its not actually possible to scale that big every year for company that has market cap of 500B.

its just took forever for market to come from clouds.

you can't go herp derp future demand is forever going to be driven by 2020-2021 infinite fed money printer glitch where every car was selling like hotcakes (industry wide not just tesla)

[Carbonfibre]

what just happened today is not healthy at all.

very dangerous moves / to get rug pulled like this.

sitting on sidelines was the best move by far today.






if whales believed that was it for inflation / fed hikes.

they would have bought market at 4100+


what Jerome says tmmrw is gonna be really interesting.


again I am just gonna sit and wait for next year.

these moves are not normal.

[Destor]

I'm almost thinking Elon is doing all his crazy crap to provide explanations for Tesla's stock decline other than simply reality setting in, everyone is looking around for reasons the stock is headed down despite producing record numbers and sales. Surely it's Twitter, alt-right something, or some other social media drama

Tesla was a <$50 stock (post-splits) before the pandemic hit /shrug

[RobParks2M]

Wow that reversal came fast. I figured it would run through end of day. Bullish sentiment not lasting at all, but with implied volatility as high as it is I doubt it’s even a sell off just options covering and not enough buy interest to hold such a big gain.

[Carbonfibre]

Nobody holds options to expiry.

Event options are sold the second their are ITM. Theta is too big to hang around all day waiting for more.

The volume matched on both sides that dealers bought back stock and sold sold stock as iv dropped to be delta neutral, those guys never lose. They trade up/down left right. Its all about the spread.

Market was expecting 3830-4100 range today.

It got that and now it met in middle.



What happened today / this reversal is not good for dip buyers and bulls.

Worst case scenario.

[camaleom]

so buying put for tomorrow? lol

[Carbonfibre]

so buying put for tomorrow? lol

they are doing same thing as in to CPI day.

calls/puts for tmmrw are expensive as hell. way too overpriced.

implied vol is too high.

if you want to play is wait for Jerome to stop speaking and take gamble otherwise no beuno.

Fed decision is 2PM EST.

its 50 BPS (99.9 percent lock atm)

Jerome will be speaking at 230PM EST...after he is done around 3PM EST.

Algos will decide that last 1 hour what they think of it.

than Thursday/Friday who knows.



atm market maker is begging retail to overpay for calls and puts again.

[lntense]

right.

you had less than 5 minutes to dump those calls on peak.






on unrelated news.


tesla is getting smashed.

not even on monster market move can it hold.

Yeah it’s continued to be relatively weak.

[Bavaria]

Dat der crude volatility.

Buckle up.

[Lowkick]

Anything in particular making the S&P cliff dive?

[reinsdorfsucks]

Anything in particular making the S&P cliff dive?

Algos reacting to fed interest rate decision (4.5% as expected); but it looks like 1, 2, and 3 year projections on rates are a bit higher than before.

Powell speech in 5 minutes will create additional reaction.

[Destor]

Threw together this side-by-side of the September and December dot plots, look at these moves up



No way is this stopping at 5.1%. I think we see 5.25, 5.5, maybe even a 6 handle

[SipNPiz]

5.1% median for 2023 Wowzers

[Destor]

Look at that one madlad forecasting 5.625 to 2025

[Carbonfibre]

I wouldn't take those targets too serious.

Fed is clueless / they will flip flop the second market goes recession. Every 3 months you will get those Fed projections.

If those targets are correct. Market would be dumping hard atm.


Instead what dealers did was fleece both sides today.

Massive vol crush again.




4.5 fed fund rate all of next year will do damage on stock market.

across the board, no name will be spared.

[NestBrah]

I wouldn't take those targets too serious.

Fed is clueless / they will flip flop the second market goes recession. Every 3 months you will get those Fed projections.

If those targets are correct. Market would be dumping hard atm.


Instead what dealers did was fleece both sides today.

Massive vol crush again.




4.5 fed fund rate all of next year will do damage on stock market.

across the board, no name will be spared.

Tell me the USD is going up next year. Not happy with the way this is going!

[Destor]

I wouldn't take those targets too serious.

Fed is clueless / they will flip flop the second market goes recession. Every 3 months you will get those Fed projections.

If those targets are correct. Market would be dumping hard atm.


Instead what dealers did was fleece both sides today.

Massive vol crush again.


4.5 fed fund rate all of next year will do damage on stock market.

across the board, no name will be spared.

Forecasts are forecasts, I think these are still too optimistic tbh. Look at how things moved up just from September, we'll hit 1Q23 and the consensus will become 5.5%+

The Fed is optimistic, the markets are optimistic, forecasts are almost always optimistic until the other shoe drops

[Carbonfibre]

Tell me the USD is going up next year. Not happy with the way this is going!

If the fed does what those dot plots suggest DXY should be able to stay above 100.

Forecasts are forecasts, I think these are still too optimistic tbh. Look at how things moved up just from September, we'll hit 1Q23 and the consensus will become 5.5%+

The Fed is optimistic, the markets are optimistic, forecasts are almost always optimistic until the other shoe drops

Problem is that market is currently trading that fed fund rate will top out at 4.8% and fed will be cutting rates by late summer next year.

Which means the truth lies somewhere in middle.

Fed language is probably calculated / trying to keep inflation expectations so they can curb consumer habits as well.

Its the same reason why tons of articles are being written that recession is coming q1/q2 next year.

If everyone is conditioned for recession than you tend to not get the result that everyone was expecting.







.................................................. ....



another Elon sell today $3.5B

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...45X03/doc4.xml

that twitter deal just killing tesla share holders

[lntense]

I'm almost thinking Elon is doing all his crazy crap to provide explanations for Tesla's stock decline other than simply reality setting in, everyone is looking around for reasons the stock is headed down despite producing record numbers and sales. Surely it's Twitter, alt-right something, or some other social media drama

Tesla was a <$50 stock (post-splits) before the pandemic hit /shrug

Nah, he’s been selling stock. Downward pressure has been too strong.

[camaleom]

another Elon sell today $3.5B

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...45X03/doc4.xml

that twitter deal just killing tesla share holders

I was about to post about this one...

T shareholders taking it in arse... and with the type of debt that twitter has this won't be the last time he sells.

[Carbonfibre]

Yeah when twitter lost 80% percent of advertisers.

Now they are falling behind in paying building rent.

Those loans ain't going to pay for themselves.

Forces him to use Tesla shares piggy bank.


Destor is right Elon has gone off the rocker.

Make joke about Elon on twitter = permanent ban.

[camaleom]

Yeah when twitter lost 80% percent of advertisers.

Now they are falling behind in paying building rent.

Those loans ain't going to pay for themselves.

Forces him to use Tesla shares piggy bank.


Destor is right Elon has gone off the rocker.

Make joke about Elon on twitter = permanent ban.

he is about to use Trumpy strategy... "litigate so I don't have to pay or if I pay won't be all of it"

any of us would be already evited lol

[Lowkick]

How on earth is Tesla green on a day like this lmao

[Carbonfibre]

How on earth is Tesla green on a day like this lmao

Its green because every time they find out that phewww it was just Elon selling nothing to worry about.

They go back into buying.


There is zero indication that Elon won't sell again.


Just gives him higher exit liquidity.

[lntense]

Some shorts likely covered this morning after confirmation of the sell causing that push up.

Yeah when twitter lost 80% percent of advertisers.

Now they are falling behind in paying building rent.

Those loans ain't going to pay for themselves.

Forces him to use Tesla shares piggy bank.


Destor is right Elon has gone off the rocker.

Make joke about Elon on twitter = permanent ban.

Better than a margin loan against his tesla stock.

[Carbonfibre]

just give it time.

that was not shorts covering.


looked to be just retail chasing with calls.



market finally processed what Jerome said yesterday and overall selling atm.

[lntense]

just give it time.

that was not shorts covering.


looked to be just retail chasing with calls.



market finally processed what Jerome said yesterday and overall selling atm.

Yeah probably right.

I scalped some calls. But not holding anything. Maybe in the 130s.

Like you said there are zero signs that he is done selling. If anything it just shows he’s expecting more downside and trying to sell now on that but if liquidity.


If spy doesn’t close today above 390 then I’m pretty bearish and not expecting much of a “Santa rally”. If closes under 389 I’ll likely get in puts.

[Harry362]

Hows the stonk market boyos?

I am thriving in business with some moneys to spend on things are stonks still only going up?

Last I checked Affirm was like $130 and SOFI was $24 are they still good investments

[camaleom]

netflix taking in the arse

I bough afrm puts yesterday before FOMC... not bad, now I have coffee money hahaha

[Destor]

Hows the stonk market boyos?

I am thriving in business with some moneys to spend on things are stonks still only going up?

Last I checked Affirm was like $130 and SOFI was $24 are they still good investments

Brb hedging high-growth tech investments with a psychiatry business, you can't lose