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04-18-2023, 07:13 AM #3121
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04-18-2023, 08:01 AM #3122
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04-18-2023, 08:16 AM #3123
That's literally how the market cycle works. Create insane FUD to scare out investors, keep that going for a while so they never reinvest, start pumping it slowly so you don't set off any alarms and make them FOMO in early.... then once you've bought up all the shares possible near the bottom, you start releasing positive news, big gains come in, people FOMO in at higher prices, and the whales dump their bags on them.
Rinse and repeat until the end of time because people are very dumb.
If you're buying during periods of extreme FUD, you're doing it right.
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04-18-2023, 08:43 AM #3124
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04-18-2023, 08:46 AM #3125
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 11,347
- Rep Power: 52653
easy to say that now.
there was lot of back drops in October lows that didn't point to market rallying 700 points higher.
-fed hikes
-inflation
-ukraine war
-energy prices
-debt ceiling
-regional bank failure
market ate through all this like it was nothing.
also if you did not own the right stocks you actually didn't go anywhere since October low.
only lesson here is buy index funds and play long long
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04-18-2023, 09:05 AM #3126
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04-18-2023, 09:18 AM #3127
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04-18-2023, 09:29 AM #3128
- Join Date: Apr 2012
- Location: Alberta, Canada
- Age: 39
- Posts: 26,334
- Rep Power: 238928
I'd call this the Graham & Dodd, Buffett & Munger philosophy: I was watching oil stonks for a while before COVID hit and know the industry very well, was on an O&G site when everything cratered. Preparation met opportunity there, I was ready to go balls deep investing in something that I understood and thought was suddenly disconnected from reality where things lost 2/3rds of their value but nothing changed on the ground. Actually sat in a meeting one day where some of the guys were talking about penny stocks as everything dropped, and I said I had just thrown some money into CNRL.
COVID was probably a once in a lifetime opportunity in terms of everything cratering, I didn't know the discounted value of the companies but knew that it would be tough to go wrong buying at 20-year lows. More opportunities will come, just gotta prepare for them + know something inside and out + not get distracted by all the noise and exciting things because all you need is a handful of correct moves. If you don't have specialized knowledge in something, then averaging into the indices is the way to go.
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04-18-2023, 09:54 AM #3129
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04-18-2023, 11:04 AM #3130
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04-18-2023, 12:28 PM #3131
- Join Date: Apr 2009
- Location: California, United States
- Posts: 29,068
- Rep Power: 222807
Where my dividend bros @ ?
Bought EPD/MMP Feb 23rd 2023 and up 4% / 6.3%
Looks like I'm due for both dividend payments very soon
Still up 80% on XOM as of today after locking in profits a while ago
Down 0.75% on my MO but that's not counting the divy re-investments so have a decent amount of free shares
BKCC continues to cuck me, down 16% luckily its only 7% of my account
So in total I got almost a 40% gain in about 18 months, but as you can see I held through some crazy chit:
Doing things this way has treated me much better than YOLOing tech stonks, although that worked too...But things today aren't like beforeJournal: https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
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04-18-2023, 12:56 PM #3132
- Join Date: Feb 2007
- Location: Minnesota, United States
- Posts: 12,978
- Rep Power: 55086
Is this in your long-term account or are these more short-term plays?
I'm still pulling good dividends from my retirement accounts, but don't have any individual stock holdings in those. Just index funds and I'd say about 15% of my total retirement account sum is in VYM. BND pays a nice dividend as well, but I also have an American Funds fund that pays 6% too.trainingwithryan.substack.com
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04-18-2023, 03:16 PM #3133
- Join Date: Apr 2009
- Location: California, United States
- Posts: 29,068
- Rep Power: 222807
That is my personal schwab long term dividend only account which I started almost two years ago, I babysit it and make sure if I'm taking profits/buying new divy stocks that it matches up with the next ex dividend dates so I'm not missing out on the compounding interest since I re-invest 100%
But yes most of my positions so far have been for a year or longer
I had to lock in profits when my XOM almost doubled (trimmed half) and immediately put it into other 7% + divvy stocksLast edited by dopamine72; 04-18-2023 at 03:23 PM.
Journal: https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
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04-19-2023, 06:27 AM #3134
Regional bank earnings for companies not heavily Cali based seem to be fine. All is good once again?!? Keep the hikes coming??
Edit: looks like Ally wasn’t so great. I think FRC gets wrecked too. Otherwise they’ve looked good. WAL appears solid.Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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04-19-2023, 07:47 AM #3135
- Join Date: Feb 2007
- Location: Minnesota, United States
- Posts: 12,978
- Rep Power: 55086
I have a 16 year old local client who I've been talking money with for about a year now. His parents finally let him open a Robinhood account to mess around with and his biggest buy is WAL. He bought in after it dumped a couple of weeks back, so he was happy last night. He messaged me and called himself the Wolf of WAL Street.
I've been relentless in telling him he needs to max out a custodial Roth instead of worrying about individual stocks at this point. He finally got his parents to set up an appt with their financial advisor and he's going to max out his 2023 Roth this week, with his own money, at 16. He's going to be an incredible guy with money and it's awesome to know he'll look back and see how much money I made him by never letting up on him and insisting he gets it done.trainingwithryan.substack.com
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04-19-2023, 07:51 AM #3136
- Join Date: Feb 2007
- Location: Minnesota, United States
- Posts: 12,978
- Rep Power: 55086
Great reply! I was asking because I don't think it's a good idea to be focused more on dividend yields than anything else at this stage for you, especially in retirement accounts. Dividends are fun to see coming in, but you'll likely make more money in the long run if you focus on stocks with more annual growth potential.
It sounds like you're not chasing the almighty dividend over annual returns, though, which is great. You're too young for that!trainingwithryan.substack.com
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04-19-2023, 09:15 AM #3137
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04-19-2023, 09:54 AM #3138
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04-19-2023, 10:14 AM #3139
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04-19-2023, 10:28 AM #3140
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04-19-2023, 10:38 AM #3141
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04-19-2023, 10:45 AM #3142
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04-19-2023, 10:58 AM #3143
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04-19-2023, 11:10 AM #3144
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 11,347
- Rep Power: 52653
0dte stuff does not go into vix calculation.
There is research paper on this read few weeks ago.
Basically 0dte provides just bit of interday vol that resets everyday.
Vix is calculated 30 days forward.
Market atm can't sell if the earnings are good and so far they seem to be just fine.
There is no way around this.
Black swan events are just meh /once every blue moon.
I have been buying dips on futures month plus now. Sellers not found.
There is no need to do anything different atm.
Counter trend trading does not work here.
Rather trade with market than try and time tops or bottom.
After that regional banking crisis whatever Fed did under the hood.
Market has gone 300+ points.
Every dip was buy.
I will keep doing it till something different happens.
now as for VIX calls.
3-4 month out calls are now cheapest they been in long time.
does it mean it will work ?
at this rate probably not.
however as cheap hedge to protect long portfolio doesn't seem like bad risk to reward play.Last edited by Carbonfibre; 04-19-2023 at 11:28 AM.
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04-19-2023, 11:35 AM #3145
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04-19-2023, 11:58 AM #3146
- Join Date: Aug 2010
- Location: State / Province, Canada
- Posts: 11,347
- Rep Power: 52653
https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/
You can read the paper there.
0dte stuff is not held enough in time to affect 30 day forward price.
Remember market maker / dealer who ever that makes up option curve is predicting price 20-30 days from here on out.
If you buy/sell 0dte spy call or put you are not delta hedging that out further. Its dies at market close. Shelf life is so small there is nothing there.
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04-19-2023, 12:21 PM #3147
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04-19-2023, 12:24 PM #3148
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04-19-2023, 12:52 PM #3149
- Join Date: Apr 2009
- Location: California, United States
- Posts: 29,068
- Rep Power: 222807
Thanks
Yes I do both, got my dividend port (Building till retirement) + other YOLO port with mostly tech
Agreed the YOLO port has done me very well over the years, up until chit hit the fan not too long ago
Still above water but my divy port has been outperforming the YOLO for a lil over a year now and that was the point of my post that dividend portfolios aren't supposed to go up that fast lol
Owned T for years and it was the most boring chit, but after about 5 years of having it the divvy was becoming pretty joocy with the compounding interest
Would re-buy if T drops to 14-15ish again
Never thought I would be trading my divy stocks like this but its working..Journal: https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
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04-19-2023, 01:08 PM #3150
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