**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[kusok]

I’m here to read pltr comments

[2020Wellness]

I’m here to read pltr comments

Oooof.

[stockbruh]

I’m here to read pltr comments

Sold covered calls yesterday they’re up 76 percent… stocks trash tho

[BuckNakedinBama]

Just sold my last holdings - MU and MSFT. And loaded up on SQQQ. Time for a correction.

[GeneralSerpant]

Pltr was at 23.33 in after hours yesterday. Sold a lot of it pre market before it dropped to 20.

[kusok]

Sold covered calls yesterday they’re up 76 percent… stocks trash tho

??? How much do you know about the company and what they do? And if you think they’re trash, why are you holding shares?

[stockbruh]

??? How much do you know about the company and what they do? And if you think they’re trash, why are you holding shares?

Before I answer your question let me ask you does a company’s stock price always reflect the actual value of the company?

[friesbruh]

like to follow some REITs well MPW chit the bed the other day when word their biggest tenant filed for chpt 11.

anyone else think a stock like thatll come back? me tends to think it was just market overreaction. went from like $4.70 to $3.75 or sum'n. back maybe 20 cents as of now.

[GeneralSerpant]

Before I answer your question let me ask you does a company’s stock price always reflect the actual value of the company?

People recognize the stock as over or under valued based on the periodic business financials.

[RobParks2M]

like to follow some REITs well MPW chit the bed the other day when word their biggest tenant filed for chpt 11.

anyone else think a stock like thatll come back? me tends to think it was just market overreaction. went from like $4.70 to $3.75 or sum'n. back maybe 20 cents as of now.

I don't understand how Cerberus managed to gut this company and convince MPW to hold the bag? I'd be curious to see what MPW's reason for loaning so much money was. Either it was a genius move that gets them paid when new owners take over various hospitals or they are idiots who were held over a barrel and tried to avoid letting the company hit bankruptcy. Either way they have an ownership stake in the hospital group so perhaps they'll make out ok. I am tempted to buy and hold long term just to see what happens, but it never looks good when EPS is negative on a REIT.

EDIT: Short interest is pretty dam high at 37% could potentially squeeze with any sort of moderate to good news. It has been a sinking ship though for the last 3 years... hospitals particularly smaller groups are under enormous pressure right now as medicare and other payers are putting the screws to providers. If they cut the dividend entirely perhaps it would be worth looking at some $10 calls for $30/each for Jan 2026. There is definitely a ton of risk.

[MinisterOfLust]

Are you adding more palantir for your future self?

[NestBrah]

Just sold my last holdings - MU and MSFT. And loaded up on SQQQ. Time for a correction.

Risky, interesting move.

What makes you confident a correction is imminent?

[stockbruh]

Anyone holding Bitcoin stocks? BITO just paid out 1.60 dividend.

[Abzu]

Just picked up some CCOI at ~$60.

Anyone holding Bitcoin stocks? BITO just paid out 1.60 dividend.

It's on my watchlist.

Are you adding more palantir for your future self?

Selling puts soon.

[Elias373]

The Gods bless us with another opportunity to back up thy truck and acquire PLTR shares

[kusok]

Anyone holding Bitcoin stocks? BITO just paid out 1.60 dividend.

You don’t wanna be holding bitcoin ETFs, they are stealing money from you in fees and other tricks, after all these *******s have to get paid, zooming out a bit, you can see from the chart that you would make a lot more money just holding spot bitcoin.

there are really only two, some argue three good bitcoin proxies, first obvious one is microstrategy, which is a basically a call option on bitcoin so it’s double leverage kinda, another one is cleanspark, which is the best miner. Some people would say that riot is another good miner though I don’t have enough technical expertise to agree or disagree with that.

[kusok]

Risky, interesting move.

What makes you confident a correction is imminent?

Lol

I believe the procedure to decide to short the market works something like this:

you listen to stupid Doomsday talk on TV, then you reach into your ass with your fist, and you pull out the crystal ball, crystal ball inside your ass can time the market, And then, based on that you make your decision, you’re going to pull Jessie Livermore, and make a fortune. Then they make a movie about you like the big short or some other nonsense.

[Abzu]

You don’t wanna be holding bitcoin ETFs, they are stealing money from you in fees and other tricks, after all these *******s have to get paid, zooming out a bit, you can see from the chart that you would make a lot more money just holding spot bitcoin.

there are really only two, some argue three good bitcoin proxies, first obvious one is microstrategy, which is a basically a call option on bitcoin so it’s double leverage kinda, another one is cleanspark, which is the best miner. Some people would say that riot is another good miner though I don’t have enough technical expertise to agree or disagree with that.

BITO is paying out 20% lol.

[Destor]

Shorting seems difficult af, would make for an exciting ride and good story but feels like there are much easier and less stressful ways to make money

[kusok]

Shorting seems difficult af, would make for an exciting ride and good story but feels like there are much easier and less stressful ways to make money

Shorting is one of the dumbest things one can do, history and statistics are not in your favor, when the most famous and profitable short seller in history commits suicide when market moved against him in a big way, you know that it’s probably not the best strategy.

The big short guy was wrong so many times, but one time he was right they made a movie about him,

Also, I don’t know if many people realize he was down over $1 billion for a couple years, how many people have the balls and the resources to keep covering and keep holding?

Bulls always win in the end. Shorts lose even when they are right lol, because they need to also be right at the right time!

[_zman]

She disagrees

[RobParks2M]

Shorting seems difficult af, would make for an exciting ride and good story but feels like there are much easier and less stressful ways to make money

I would never short. If I want downside exposure just buy puts. Always go short dated puts never really gonna win on long term puts as most things, like the market as a whole, tend to go up long term.

[Destor]

Shorting is one of the dumbest things one can do, history and statistics are not in your favor, when the most famous and profitable short seller in history commits suicide when market moved against him in a big way, you know that it’s probably not the best strategy.

The big short guy was wrong so many times, but one time he was right they made a movie about him,

Also, I don’t know if many people realize he was down over $1 billion for a couple years, how many people have the balls and the resources to keep covering and keep holding?

Bulls always win in the end. Shorts lose even when they are right lol, because they need to also be right at the right time!

It does make for a good story though. Then you follow Michael Burry for a while and he spends like three years making wrong predictions, tweeting them, and deleting / remaking his Twitter account.

Nobody talks about all the losses, but the huge win becomes a movie.

I would never short. If I want downside exposure just buy puts. Always go short dated puts never really gonna win on long term puts as most things, like the market as a whole, tend to go up long term.

Same here. I like to be pessimistic about things just to stay grounded in reality, but pessimism doesn’t mean taking short positions. I would also never short.

[GeneralSerpant]

What Soun beat earnings.

[BuckNakedinBama]

Shorting seems difficult af, would make for an exciting ride and good story but feels like there are much easier and less stressful ways to make money

Risky, interesting move.

What makes you confident a correction is imminent?

Simply: charts. History. Fundamentals. Society. Rates. Jobs.

Long response:

Charts - look at the 5 10 and 20 year nasdaq charts. Looks like a double top to me. P/E for nasdaq is around 22. No way that keeps up even with booming growth expected.

History/rates - look at history of what happens when rate cycle stops tightening, stalls, and starts loosening. Market always goes down right after where we are right now.

Fundamentals - again, nasdaq at 22P/E. All the real growth and stock increases are with the mega-cap stocks. The economy is not good, standard of living is down, and productivity isn't making good progress.

Society - see above. Also election coming up will breed uncertainty and strife.

Jobs - all the jobs are **** low-level service jobs, and even those "gains" are starting to peter out as the service jobs that were created by reopening from covid are now filled. Where is there going to be job growth?

I see us going back to 5% unemployment with 1-2% GDP growth and 3% inflation. That puts the fed in a super tight spot and essentially creates a "new normal" which is stagflation. Once the markets catch on to these macro pictures I think the P/E ratios fall back from the stratosphere.

[HMFIC_BROWSIN]

Pull up a BROS weekly chart right now and look at this week's bull volume.

This is the beginning of a sustained and strong rally. I'm deploying all of my cash into it today.

Very reminiscent of the high volume weekly bullish candle we saw on COIN back in July 2023.

[stockbruh]

You don’t wanna be holding bitcoin ETFs, they are stealing money from you in fees and other tricks, after all these *******s have to get paid, zooming out a bit, you can see from the chart that you would make a lot more money just holding spot bitcoin.

there are really only two, some argue three good bitcoin proxies, first obvious one is microstrategy, which is a basically a call option on bitcoin so it’s double leverage kinda, another one is cleanspark, which is the best miner. Some people would say that riot is another good miner though I don’t have enough technical expertise to agree or disagree with that.

I keep hearing this but I believe the fee is only .095 percent on BITO which I’m guessing means when you cash out they take 1 percent?they’ve paid out an average of 1$ dividend each month this year so far, I’m holding 400 shares, through the dividend and selling ITM covered calls I’ve paid for almost half my shares already, they’ve forecasted for a dividend every single month this year but that depends on how Bitcoin does.if you can find me another stock that’s paying a 20 percent dividend every month and is only down 5$ from all time highs let me know

[NestBrah]

Simply: charts. History. Fundamentals. Society. Rates. Jobs.

Long response:

Charts - look at the 5 10 and 20 year nasdaq charts. Looks like a double top to me. P/E for nasdaq is around 22. No way that keeps up even with booming growth expected.

History/rates - look at history of what happens when rate cycle stops tightening, stalls, and starts loosening. Market always goes down right after where we are right now.

Fundamentals - again, nasdaq at 22P/E. All the real growth and stock increases are with the mega-cap stocks. The economy is not good, standard of living is down, and productivity isn't making good progress.

Society - see above. Also election coming up will breed uncertainty and strife.

Jobs - all the jobs are **** low-level service jobs, and even those "gains" are starting to peter out as the service jobs that were created by reopening from covid are now filled. Where is there going to be job growth?

I see us going back to 5% unemployment with 1-2% GDP growth and 3% inflation. That puts the fed in a super tight spot and essentially creates a "new normal" which is stagflation. Once the markets catch on to these macro pictures I think the P/E ratios fall back from the stratosphere.

I agree with you on everything except:

History/rates - look at history of what happens when rate cycle stops tightening, stalls, and starts loosening. Market always goes down right after where we are right now.


It feels like the clowns at the Fed are eager to lower rates even with a strong economy that seems to be handling them. In the past rates were only lowered once the economy started falling apart.

This is why I'm hesitant to take any confident position.

If they lower when the economy is still doing okay and people are feeling bullish, asset values are going to skyrocket.

[kusok]

I keep hearing this but I believe the fee is only .095 percent on BITO which I’m guessing means when you cash out they take 1 percent?they’ve paid out an average of 1$ dividend each month this year so far, I’m holding 400 shares, through the dividend and selling ITM covered calls I’ve paid for almost half my shares already, they’ve forecasted for a dividend every single month this year but that depends on how Bitcoin does.if you can find me another stock that’s paying a 20 percent dividend every month and is only down 5$ from all time highs let me know

no, that’s totally cool, but if you look at the two stocks I mentioned, they have done 10 X in the last few weeks, and you can still sell covered calls on those, the premiums are much higher than on any ETF, as an example, a few weeks ago Out of money covered call on micro strategy would pay you $20,000 a week, and I believe at that time 100 shares would cost you something like 80 or 90,000 or maybe $100,000, so that’s a pretty crazy premium,

What I also like about those two bitcoin proxies is that micro strategy should be a very easy double from here in the next few weeks, it all depends on the cycle obviously, and clean spark should realistically be hitting 60 or $70, so that’s like a 3x or 4x from here,

Basically, one of the general rules of investing is that growth always beats dividends, every single time, you would only use dividends in very few very specific cases, such as if you are retiring in the next year or two or you desperately need cash flow right now today, stuff like that, generally this is because anyone who pays dividend it just means they have no idea how to grow their business, they don’t know how to reinvest the money to grow,

[kusok]

It does make for a good story though. Then you follow Michael Burry for a while and he spends like three years making wrong predictions, tweeting them, and deleting / remaking his Twitter account.

Nobody talks about all the losses, but the huge win becomes a movie.



Same here. I like to be pessimistic about things just to stay grounded in reality, but pessimism doesn’t mean taking short positions. I would also never short.

If someone has inside information from CEO of NVDA that they’re gonna have a really bad next year, I totally understand shorting, but if you just watch the news or read something on yahoo finance and then decide to sell or short the market, you’re just getting played, Because people who put out these articles and bad news are the same people who can create the sell off in the market and those are the very same people who are going to buy what you’re selling… I think most sellers just don’t realize that, when they sell their stock, somebody’s buying it, And then you can always go back and check who did the buying and it’s always the same people who put out the bad news articles to get you to sell.