**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Destor]

No idea if he does, but he ate his words and proved him wrong pretty hard.

I bought heavy soxl, tqqq, and tesla calls when they were dirt cheap, also did some easy yolo flips on the banking sector with the leveraged etfs like DPST.


also keep in mind things like soxl, tqqq, and dpst, are 3x leveraged stocks, so when you get calls on them its like 4.5-6x+ leverage, sold out of some over those leveraged ones way too soon and left way too much meat on the bone.

The fact that this is still happening speaks to how much work remains for the higher interest rates and QT, there is still far too much money floating around

You could have thrown a dart from October 2022 and be up 2x, or throw one dart at Nvidia and be up +250%

[imbeingcereal]

The fact that this is still happening speaks to how much work remains for the higher interest rates and QT, there is still far too much money floating around

You could have thrown a dart from October 2022 and be up 2x, or throw one dart at Nvidia and be up +250%

I think at this point, you need to look at everything on a relative basis. I had this same thesis for a while, but I'm (very cautiously) changing it now. As long as the US isn't falling off a cliff economically relative to other countries, I think that more money just means US assets will continue to get pumped or at least be a relatively safe place to park long-term cash.

My main concern was that inflation --> rising rates --> growth assets getting decimated, but that isn't really being borne out in the data so far. What seems to be happening is that wealth is being reallocated from nonsense, like non-profitable tech, towards essentials, services, and other areas of the economy. Further, while people in tech are seeing their relative prosperity decline or stagnate, other parts of the economy are seeing a lift, which is driving inflation and growth. While Seattle, SF, NYC are getting decimated from the lack of business investment, the Southeast and areas that are less dependent on overpaid tech/finance folks are continuing to do extremely well. Finally, I do think AI will be a big boost over time and will drive some combo of revenue growth (improved productivity --> increased revenues) and/or margin improvement (if it really eliminates work, less workers --> higher profit).

All of this is to say there are some severe problems in the US, but it's not any worse than anywhere else in the world. I'm still buying the total world fund because I think the US market is overvalued and overly concentrated on a few tech names, but I'm also selectively buying companies in the US that are doing well, but haven't had the hoopla of AI/tech. Companies like $DAL, $AXP, $V, $LULU, and probably most of the energy sector are basically printing money but haven't had their earnings re-rated like tech/semis have so far. Therein lies the opportunity. Keep investing and stay long in a diversified fund, but also use this time to selectively invest in companies that are still thriving but are underappreciated by those in the crowded tech momentum trade.

[Destor]

I think at this point, you need to look at everything on a relative basis. I had this same thesis for a while, but I'm (very cautiously) changing it now. As long as the US isn't falling off a cliff economically relative to other countries, I think that more money just means US assets will continue to get pumped or at least be a relatively safe place to park long-term cash.

My main concern was that inflation --> rising rates --> growth assets getting decimated, but that isn't really being borne out in the data so far. What seems to be happening is that wealth is being reallocated from nonsense, like non-profitable tech, towards essentials, services, and other areas of the economy. Further, while people in tech are seeing their relative prosperity decline or stagnate, other parts of the economy are seeing a lift, which is driving inflation and growth. While Seattle, SF, NYC are getting decimated from the lack of business investment, the Southeast and areas that are less dependent on overpaid tech/finance folks are continuing to do extremely well. Finally, I do think AI will be a big boost over time and will drive some combo of revenue growth (improved productivity --> increased revenues) and/or margin improvement (if it really eliminates work, less workers --> higher profit).

All of this is to say there are some severe problems in the US, but it's not any worse than anywhere else in the world. I'm still buying the total world fund because I think the US market is overvalued and overly concentrated on a few tech names, but I'm also selectively buying companies in the US that are doing well, but haven't had the hoopla of AI/tech. Companies like $DAL, $AXP, $V, $LULU, and probably most of the energy sector are basically printing money but haven't had their earnings re-rated like tech/semis have so far. Therein lies the opportunity. Keep investing and stay long in a diversified fund, but also use this time to selectively invest in companies that are still thriving but are underappreciated by those in the crowded tech momentum trade.

I'm not short stocks or anything like that either way, it's just becoming clearer and clearer that people screaming economic Armageddon (and probably have been for over a year now) are way off base. I think rates will stay higher for quite some time and that the world will handle it just fine.

[Abzu]

I'm not short stocks or anything like that either way, it's just becoming clearer and clearer that people screaming economic Armageddon (and probably have been for over a year now) are way off base. I think rates will stay higher for quite some time and that the world will handle it just fine.

Economic Armageddon(The EA) is coming just like recession is coming, just not when you think, if it was easy even a caveman could do it lol.







Awww... <3 <3 <3

I think at this point, you need to look at everything on a relative basis. I had this same thesis for a while, but I'm (very cautiously) changing it now. As long as the US isn't falling off a cliff economically relative to other countries, I think that more money just means US assets will continue to get pumped or at least be a relatively safe place to park long-term cash.

My main concern was that inflation --> rising rates --> growth assets getting decimated, but that isn't really being borne out in the data so far. What seems to be happening is that wealth is being reallocated from nonsense, like non-profitable tech, towards essentials, services, and other areas of the economy. Further, while people in tech are seeing their relative prosperity decline or stagnate, other parts of the economy are seeing a lift, which is driving inflation and growth. While Seattle, SF, NYC are getting decimated from the lack of business investment, the Southeast and areas that are less dependent on overpaid tech/finance folks are continuing to do extremely well. Finally, I do think AI will be a big boost over time and will drive some combo of revenue growth (improved productivity --> increased revenues) and/or margin improvement (if it really eliminates work, less workers --> higher profit).

All of this is to say there are some severe problems in the US, but it's not any worse than anywhere else in the world. I'm still buying the total world fund because I think the US market is overvalued and overly concentrated on a few tech names, but I'm also selectively buying companies in the US that are doing well, but haven't had the hoopla of AI/tech. Companies like $DAL, $AXP, $V, $LULU, and probably most of the energy sector are basically printing money but haven't had their earnings re-rated like tech/semis have so far. Therein lies the opportunity. Keep investing and stay long in a diversified fund, but also use this time to selectively invest in companies that are still thriving but are underappreciated by those in the crowded tech momentum trade.

This would be a great post if China didn't exist, as it stands now though, it's a good post <3.

[Abzu]

No idea if he does, but he ate his words and proved him wrong pretty hard.

I bought heavy soxl, tqqq, and tesla calls when they were dirt cheap, also did some easy yolo flips on the banking sector with the leveraged etfs like DPST.


also keep in mind things like soxl, tqqq, and dpst, are 3x leveraged stocks, so when you get calls on them its like 4.5-6x+ leverage, sold out of some over those leveraged ones way too soon and left way too much meat on the bone.

I called the bottom in TSLA within a couple of dollars and days but it seems most posters here think I'm crazy, idk what gave them that impression lol, good job you crazy mfer.

[imbeingcereal]

I'm not short stocks or anything like that either way, it's just becoming clearer and clearer that people screaming economic Armageddon (and probably have been for over a year now) are way off base. I think rates will stay higher for quite some time and that the world will handle it just fine.

Yeah, that's my conclusion as well. Hold your nose and buy quality, as always. There'll always be new innovations that drive earnings. Smart people will always have a drive to make $10s of millions. Either find them early or trust that these people will eventually make their way into the S&P500 and take up a larger and larger portion of your net worth passively (see Nvidia and how it's now like 2% of my net worth whether I want it to be or not).

Just don't give into FOMO in either direction and make sure whatever you're buying has actual cash flows and you'll be fine. Also, when in doubt, just monetize whatever you won't need for 10+ years in an index fund.

This would be a great post if China didn't exist, as it stands now though, it's a good post <3.

Not sure I follow - China as an alternative to the US exists? I doubt it. China is doing well and will do fine, but I think they have a lot of political issues, internally and externally, to resolve before they're a potential substitute for the US. Even then, I see an upcoming world divided between US allies and Chinese allies, so I think there'll be room for both markets to grow.

If that's not what you meant, disregard everything I wrote above lol

[Abzu]

Not sure I follow - China as an alternative to the US exists? I doubt it. China is doing well and will do fine, but I think they have a lot of political issues, internally and externally, to resolve before they're a potential substitute for the US. Even then, I see an upcoming world divided between US allies and Chinese allies, so I think there'll be room for both markets to grow.

If that's not what you meant, disregard everything I wrote above lol

Nominal GDP Rankings by Country

What are the largest economies in the world? According to the International Monetary Fund, these are the highest ranking countries in the world in nominal GDP:

United States (GDP: 20.49 trillion)
China (GDP: 13.4 trillion)
Japan: (GDP: 4.97 trillion)
Germany: (GDP: 4.00 trillion)
United Kingdom: (GDP: 2.83 trillion)
France: (GDP: 2.78 trillion)
India: (GDP: 2.72 trillion)
Italy: (GDP: 2.07 trillion)
Brazil: (GDP: 1.87 trillion)
Canada: (GDP: 1.71 trillion)



As you can see, China is the only alternative to the U.S, investment will flow into China over the U.S. as they start to eat American demand.

The reason the dollar has been so strong is not because of the strength of the U.S. economy it's because of the current weakness of foreign countries like China, this is not real.

China has been artificially depressed but that is starting to end. China is reopening right now in preparation for our next boom cycle. They would not reopen if the U.S. is about to enter a long recession, they must somehow know that if the U.S. does enter recession, it will be short and I'm sure you can guess why.



If we do enter recession and China starts stocking up then we won't have an inflation problem, we will have a growth problem though and I'm sure you know what that means.

[taf1968]

More and more countries are looking to get AWAY from China after spending years getting under their thumb with regard to supply chain and getting hosed during COVID.

Sure, some countries (Russia, India, etc) will want to get further in bed with China because they don't have much choice. But plenty of others are looking to get further away. Not many countries that aren't commie/socialist want to tie themselves to China moving forward. They'll take their chances with spreading the risk.

[Venom08]

My AMZN calls are up several bags and I have another play that should work out the same way.

TGT is currently down 50% from its ATHs two years ago and I see a demand zone coming up in the $110s. We are currently at $130 so hopefully over the next couple of weeks, my buy in happens. I plan on buying several far OTM 2025 calls and going along for the ride up.

[camaleom]

I bought some lottery puts on coin after sec announcement on binance...

CHA CHINNNNNNNNN!

[camaleom]

More and more countries are looking to get AWAY from China after spending years getting under their thumb with regard to supply chain and getting hosed during COVID.

Sure, some countries (Russia, India, etc) will want to get further in bed with China because they don't have much choice. But plenty of others are looking to get further away. Not many countries that aren't commie/socialist want to tie themselves to China moving forward. They'll take their chances with spreading the risk.

china is a ticking bomb... u know they are gonna do something stupid soon - all commies country do shot themselves in the foot sooner than later

[_zman]

More and more countries are looking to get AWAY from China after spending years getting under their thumb with regard to supply chain and getting hosed during COVID.

Sure, some countries (Russia, India, etc) will want to get further in bed with China because they don't have much choice. But plenty of others are looking to get further away. Not many countries that aren't commie/socialist want to tie themselves to China moving forward. They'll take their chances with spreading the risk.

Most things I'm buying are still saying made in China. I try to avoid this, but buying online isn't always easy to find where it's made. But I agree, but it'll also take some time.

[RobParks2M]

I bought some lottery puts on coin after sec announcement on binance...

CHA CHINNNNNNNNN!

Nice! Sofi ripping again today, but hasn’t crossed my $8cc which is solid. Just waiting patiently to see which way the market goes now. I still think we are too high and I’d rather hold bonds. I shouldda just hodl’d my pacw preferred shares but oh well I’ve got WAL still and sold my KEY preferred for a nice gain in addition to the dividend.

Oil is still weak which seems odd to me. It’s trading hasn’t really correlated with inventories or anything so perhaps the assumption in the market is we are due for a recession/lower demand due to conversion to electric.

Still thinking fnma will be released public again by 2027 20x gain on preferred shares. 150% dividend if released

[Destor]

Bank of Canada re-started the rate hikes today after pausing all the way back in January

Seems surprising that valuations in growthy stonks are staying so high in the face of higher rates for longer, CME FedWatch now has rates staying at current levels until the end of the year

[natypes]

What's up guys. I'm about to let some investment real estate go and turn my attention to day trading. I'm in the research phase now and I've been doing simulations for 3 weeks. It's going well. I am going to have $100k to invest. My strategy is use news, trends, pre market and gaps to make my decisions. Ideally, I'm just needing to make 1% or above and I'm selling. Now, during simulations the past 3 weeks I'm actually up $21k fake dollars lol. This is better than I ever expected it to be. I have invested in stocks in the past and did well, but didn't have this kind of capital in. Some questions I have

1-Will $100k in any stock always be executable?
2-Could that small of an investment make a small stock move?
3-What's the best broker for speed. I want to get in pre market at times and sell 1-2 min after opening bell. Today would have been $5500 in 1 minute on Marvell Tech.
4-Is there anything I'm overlooking?

[Travis99]

What's up guys. I'm about to let some investment real estate go and turn my attention to day trading. I'm in the research phase now and I've been doing simulations for 3 weeks. It's going well. I am going to have $100k to invest. My strategy is use news, trends, pre market and gaps to make my decisions. Ideally, I'm just needing to make 1% or above and I'm selling. Now, during simulations the past 3 weeks I'm actually up $21k fake dollars lol. This is better than I ever expected it to be. I have invested in stocks in the past and did well, but didn't have this kind of capital in. Some questions I have

1-Will $100k in any stock always be executable?
2-Could that small of an investment make a small stock move?
3-What's the best broker for speed. I want to get in pre market at times and sell 1-2 min after opening bell. Today would have been $5500 in 1 minute on Marvell Tech.
4-Is there anything I'm overlooking?

Good luck with your goal of turning 100k into $50

[usersignup2]

Good luck with your goal of turning 100k into $50

lol. most accurate post on this thread

[usersignup2]

What's up guys. I'm about to let some investment real estate go and turn my attention to day trading. I'm in the research phase now and I've been doing simulations for 3 weeks. It's going well. I am going to have $100k to invest. My strategy is use news, trends, pre market and gaps to make my decisions. Ideally, I'm just needing to make 1% or above and I'm selling. Now, during simulations the past 3 weeks I'm actually up $21k fake dollars lol. This is better than I ever expected it to be. I have invested in stocks in the past and did well, but didn't have this kind of capital in. Some questions I have

1-Will $100k in any stock always be executable?
2-Could that small of an investment make a small stock move?
3-What's the best broker for speed. I want to get in pre market at times and sell 1-2 min after opening bell. Today would have been $5500 in 1 minute on Marvell Tech.
4-Is there anything I'm overlooking?

1- market orders, yes. limit order, depends on how crowded the trade is.
2- almost never unless you place market order on low volume stock.

4 - yes. you can't learn daytrading through simulation. a huge component is managing your losses and managing your emotions. neither of those are really present in simulation.
5 - print your post, tape it to the wall, look at it every day. this will be the start of something epic or potentially tragic learning lesson. I highly discourage you from doing this but good luck. it is the most soul sucking thing you can do to earn a living.

[taf1968]

Good luck with your goal of turning 100k into $50

lol. most accurate post on this thread

These.

Good luck if you decide to give it a whirl. It's a completely different ballgame when it's real money. When you are simulating, there isn't any actual financial risk. You can say "I made $20k in simulated trades" . . . but would you really have taken the same positions in terms of $$ and shares if you could really lose a big chunk (or all of it)?

Something like 90%+ of day traders fail. There have been numerous people pop into the threads who thought it was easy money and "all you have to do is time it right and get in and out with decent daily gains". Haven't been many (or any) who have come back and reported that they were still doing it and making a living. You might be the exception--hopefully you are. If it was really that easy, more people would be successful doing it.

[_zman]

What's up guys. I'm about to let some investment real estate go and turn my attention to day trading. I'm in the research phase now and I've been doing simulations for 3 weeks. It's going well. I am going to have $100k to invest. My strategy is use news, trends, pre market and gaps to make my decisions. Ideally, I'm just needing to make 1% or above and I'm selling. Now, during simulations the past 3 weeks I'm actually up $21k fake dollars lol. This is better than I ever expected it to be. I have invested in stocks in the past and did well, but didn't have this kind of capital in. Some questions I have

1-Will $100k in any stock always be executable?
2-Could that small of an investment make a small stock move?
3-What's the best broker for speed. I want to get in pre market at times and sell 1-2 min after opening bell. Today would have been $5500 in 1 minute on Marvell Tech.
4-Is there anything I'm overlooking?

I come up with all kinds of ideas when I smoke the reefer too. And I do just as you did here; write out my thoughts to re-evaluate after. You got step one down...

[natypes]

I get the negativity, but I'm not 'most miscers'. I'm 46 w/ over $1 million in assets in an area where that is very good. I've made a little bit in the market in the past ($6800 profit in 6 months w/ $50k in) Eh, as for it not being real money, I'm doing the EXACT things I plan on doing when I invest. I don't have to make a living, just replace the $1k/month I was profiting on my condo. And I'm not messing with smaller cap stocks. Could my 100k, go to $50, I suppose, but highly unlikely. And if it does, I won't starve. This is all profit from another investment. Thanks for the tips.

[Carbonfibre]

What's up guys. I'm about to let some investment real estate go and turn my attention to day trading. I'm in the research phase now and I've been doing simulations for 3 weeks. It's going well. I am going to have $100k to invest. My strategy is use news, trends, pre market and gaps to make my decisions. Ideally, I'm just needing to make 1% or above and I'm selling. Now, during simulations the past 3 weeks I'm actually up $21k fake dollars lol. This is better than I ever expected it to be. I have invested in stocks in the past and did well, but didn't have this kind of capital in. Some questions I have

1-Will $100k in any stock always be executable?
2-Could that small of an investment make a small stock move?
3-What's the best broker for speed. I want to get in pre market at times and sell 1-2 min after opening bell. Today would have been $5500 in 1 minute on Marvell Tech.
4-Is there anything I'm overlooking?

1. depends on stock you interested in
2. maybe some shiit box penny stock
3. webull but probably go with tasty tbh
4. yes


if you are serious about day trading and have $100K and say have goal to make $5K per week of side income

you might as well go to direct source and trade MES (micro es futures) or ES big boy futures.

you're not going to make it trading options or just flipping stock on daily.

simply impossible to be able to get direction and timing right.

learning curve on trading futures is bit steep but put the effort in / watch some youtube videos (read some books etc) and you will figure it out.

start with practice account

learn the tape etc and you will be set.


I have pretty much gone 100 percent now ES trading on side.

[SouthDakotaBrah]

What's up guys. I'm about to let some investment real estate go and turn my attention to day trading. I'm in the research phase now and I've been doing simulations for 3 weeks. It's going well. I am going to have $100k to invest. My strategy is use news, trends, pre market and gaps to make my decisions. Ideally, I'm just needing to make 1% or above and I'm selling. Now, during simulations the past 3 weeks I'm actually up $21k fake dollars lol. This is better than I ever expected it to be. I have invested in stocks in the past and did well, but didn't have this kind of capital in. Some questions I have

1-Will $100k in any stock always be executable?
2-Could that small of an investment make a small stock move?
3-What's the best broker for speed. I want to get in pre market at times and sell 1-2 min after opening bell. Today would have been $5500 in 1 minute on Marvell Tech.
4-Is there anything I'm overlooking?

I think you have the wrong definition of "investing" and actually meant to say "trading". I may extrapolate further and call it "gambling", and agree with the brah who said you are likely to turn the $100k into $50 (srs)

If you actually want to invest the $100k in a way that isn't completely retarded, you should put it in VOO and never check this thread again (none of us will ever do that, though)

[2020Wellness]

I think you have the wrong definition of "investing" and actually meant to say "trading". I may extrapolate further and call it "gambling", and agree with the brah who said you are likely to turn the $100k into $50 (srs)

If you actually want to invest the $100k in a way that isn't completely retarded, you should put it in VOO and never check this thread again (none of us will ever do that, though)

I actually did that, and continue to do it. I still check this thread, but just because I’m interested in investing in general.

[RobParks2M]

I think you have the wrong definition of "investing" and actually meant to say "trading". I may extrapolate further and call it "gambling", and agree with the brah who said you are likely to turn the $100k into $50 (srs)

If you actually want to invest the $100k in a way that isn't completely retarded, you should put it in VOO and never check this thread again (none of us will ever do that, though)

This. Can’t stop buying random small caps trying to beat the market. I’ve managed about 2 out of 3 years but the time it takes I might as well have just gotten another job and made significantly more.

[kusok]

Just realized that the math doesn’t work out for those “experts” who say if a stock drops by 50% it now has to rise by 100% to get your money back.

It seems they are missing the time element. If your stock dropped by 50% and then rose by 50%, it does NOT have to rise another 50%, but only 25%… etc.

Mind blown…

Do they even math?

[_zman]

Just realized that the math doesn’t work out for those “experts” who say if a stock drops by 50% it now has to rise by 100% to get your money back.

It seems they are missing the time element. If your stock dropped by 50% and then rose by 50%, it does NOT have to rise another 50%, but only 25%… etc.

Mind blown…

Do they even math?

Not following. Show the math.

[taf1968]

Just realized that the math doesn’t work out for those “experts” who say if a stock drops by 50% it now has to rise by 100% to get your money back.

It seems they are missing the time element. If your stock dropped by 50% and then rose by 50%, it does NOT have to rise another 50%, but only 25%… etc.

Mind blown…

Do they even math?

Starting point: $100
Lose 50%: You now have $50

You need a 100% gain from your current $50 (50 x 1.00) to get the $50 back you lost and get to $100 again. There's no "time element" to it.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Perc..._gain_and_loss

[usersignup2]

math is racist

[Heaney]

Just realized that the math doesn’t work out for those “experts” who say if a stock drops by 50% it now has to rise by 100% to get your money back.

It seems they are missing the time element. If your stock dropped by 50% and then rose by 50%, it does NOT have to rise another 50%, but only 25%… etc.

Mind blown…

Do they even math?

This can't be serious