Honestly this is such a joke how far they are willing to unravel everything they’ve done to control inflation because of irresponsible public banks. Let them go under. Cover insured depositors. If federal government loses money attempting to convert assets to cash for depositors then they should garnish C-suite exec wages, bonuses, and any cash from selling shares to cover. If that isn’t enough then I think jail is appropriate. These morons think they can hold the average American hostage and currently they’ve been correct.
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03-19-2023, 03:22 PM #2851Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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03-19-2023, 04:13 PM #2852
- Join Date: Aug 2010
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- Posts: 11,347
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This will 100 percent blow up in their face again.
08 did and here we have another dumb decision by central banks.
2008 fed started buying mortgage backed securities / bonds (first time in history central banks started doing this)
2020 went next level central banks buying junk bonds / corporate debt.
what you think happens once you tell big banks you will always have their backs.
that means risk taking is always on.
anytime something breaks fed goes we got it.
carry on doing what you do.
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03-19-2023, 04:43 PM #2853
I am a total noob when it comes to the source of our funny money - fed and even IMF.
But just like last week's emergency facility, if I understand this correctly, this also feels like a QE dressed up to not be QE.
If I understand, basically this is just another mechanism to spread risk. The emergency facility lets banks take underperforming bonds off their balance sheet for cash at par, which is effectively an undercollateralized loan (unsecured to the point after collateralization). This swap lets participating countries just react more quickly with short term loans of FX - pushing out risk of bad FX or kicking it down the road at least.
All of that is to say, although technically this is not "money printers back on," it de-risks banks. In other words, it lets banks participate in risk upside without realizing risk downside. Which is just another greenlight for banks to risk up. Which is the same as giving them free money.
Will try and learn more about these overnight swaps when I have time.
EDIT: also re bitcoin, similar to bow yield curve inversion is a predictor for future recession, maybe bitcoin price will end up being a 12 month predictor for inflationLast edited by mulletwarrior; 03-19-2023 at 05:00 PM.
modnegged4life
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03-19-2023, 05:02 PM #2854
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So to add to your post.
The uptick in the fed balance sheet is not QE per say.
This program bank term funding is direct asset swap between banks and fed. This will not create new deposits. (exactly what you said here "The emergency facility lets banks take under performing bonds off their balance sheet for cash at par, which is effectively an undercollateralized loan (unsecured to the point after collateralization)"
In QE 2020 Fed was creating new deposits when they started buying bonds / corporate debt / mbs etc. This increased money supply and inflation went boom.
However will the stock market even care?
Stock market just needs liquidity they don't care about inflation.
As long there is liquidity backing in system market will pump.
To me this looks like sneaky QE because BTC should not be pumping 45% in week and 80% YTD.
You can see it on nasdaq up 26% vs sp 500 only 4%.
Hard not see how this by fall all blows up because a lot of these things have 08 vibes how they are injecting liquidity into banks here.
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03-19-2023, 05:38 PM #2855
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03-19-2023, 05:48 PM #2856
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Seems like hopium pump.
Front running rate cuts one final pump on all risky stuff and its all down here in few months. This coming FOMC 25BPS is now lock.
However by June there is already 25bps rate cut coming. Dec 2023 its implying 3.5 % interest rate.
Month ago Fed speakers were saying we don't plan on doing rate cuts till 2024.
They thought getting to 550-575 and keeping it there for year would solve inflation.
However it seems market already broke.
The way stable things got killed metals / oil last week was hint things could be going for worse real soon.
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03-19-2023, 05:50 PM #2857
^^ carbon surrrly that bitcoin pump isn’t the retail crowd. JFL the fed throws banks a lifeline and institutional investors use that lifeline and buy fukking bitcoin
In theory the new swap program should result in lower short term rates, via less risk - I think.
So cheaper credit plus ability to convert bonds to cash = more liquidity and of course banks aren’t just adding cash to their balance sheet but are turning around and loaning it.
So instead of the fed creating cash out of thin air like with QE, they are just letting ppl exchange illiquid assets for cash assets. So market run probably driven by ppl trying to invest their new cash.
EDIT: to add that to the extent I understand the SDRs that the emergency facility is based on, that is kind of creating cash out if thin air because SDRs are these intra-gov abominations that no one knows what the fukk they are and the US gov basically takes some of its SDR credits and converts them to cash. So not necessarily creating cash out of thin air, but close to it.modnegged4life
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03-19-2023, 05:53 PM #2858
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03-19-2023, 05:58 PM #2859
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03-19-2023, 06:01 PM #2860
- Join Date: Aug 2010
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Majority of BTC is held by giant whales.
Once fed/treasury decided to bail out SIVB where huge amount of crypto startups used for banking that gave green light.
Institutions since 2020 have been offering their bigger clients crypto exposure, so absolutely this has zero to do with retail.
Retail cannot move BTC.
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03-19-2023, 06:15 PM #2861
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03-19-2023, 06:22 PM #2862
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03-19-2023, 06:36 PM #2863
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03-19-2023, 06:41 PM #2864
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03-19-2023, 06:44 PM #2865
AT1 bond holders somehow going down with the ship 100% even though shareholders are getting 25% of value of shares from friday. I don’t understand how this is remotely possible under any deal framework.
BRB buying AT1 bonds from CS for a penny on the dollar on the hope of a reversalFitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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03-19-2023, 08:00 PM #2866
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- Posts: 11,347
- Rep Power: 52743
I hope you're joking around.
Would not be touching any of these toxic banks under any cost. Absolute suicide move.
Swiss government just came up with new law today where they sold CS without approval of shareholders in fire sale for virtually nothing like 65 cents per share.
CS shareholders just got fleeced.
This is unreal and unprecedented move.......imagine how bad those Credit Suisse books must be.
Also all those regional banks here at any point now.
Like FRC / WAL / CMA those are all phucked.
Only okay try on some throw away calls would be KRE etf cause you're not taking chance on one bank.
There is story this weekend that they were asking for Warren Buffet for help these regional banks....word is he said no.
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03-19-2023, 08:20 PM #2867
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03-19-2023, 09:21 PM #2868
Buffet gonna give BAC the $$$ to do the dirty work for him.
Did they ever decide if bond holders get wrecked for SNBY/SVB? Did they go down with the ship too? Also, for that matter, did they ever decide what the deal would be for options gang???
@Carbon I’d only buy $100 CS bond for like $.01. Might be a good use of $100Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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03-20-2023, 09:53 AM #2869
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03-20-2023, 11:00 AM #2870
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cs at1 bonds dead they staying at zero
was confirmed this morning
massive lawsuit coming lmao
https://www.investing.com/news/stock...ipeout-3034310
so many laws were broken here is unreal
what they did to CS shareholders is insane.
...........
about FRC
$70B bank run
yeah they phucked
vol insane
no matter how good it looks
you do not want repeat of SIVB by playing options with FRC
stay away from FRC
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03-20-2023, 11:37 AM #2871
- Join Date: Apr 2009
- Location: California, United States
- Posts: 29,090
- Rep Power: 223315
Anddddd
This is why I bag hold
I went green on a few big positions recently and here are my trimmings for the last few weeks:
Also trimmed half my XOM position @ 114 for an 80% gain, pretty much riding the rest in profits nearly....Got a stop loss order in at 99 so if that executes I still make a 50% ish gain
BOOM
Back in Business
Patience is not a virtue, its a fukING PAYOUT BABY!!!!Journal: https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=139898123&page=240
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03-20-2023, 11:59 AM #2872
Not on my computer but what do FRC bonds look like? Lmao.
I don’t remember- did bond holders for SNBY or SVB get 0’d out too??
Shouldda fukkin held NYCB but I’m happy not holding junky bank stocks.
Edit:
There is something probably fuking lurking under the surface. The fed, Jpm, and all the other banks are doing their dammedest to keep FRC going. Why is that?
Edit2: apparently CS AT1 bonds were junior to their stock. Very uncommon but that is how they were wrote.Last edited by RobParks2M; 03-20-2023 at 12:12 PM.
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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03-20-2023, 03:16 PM #2873
Funny enough I asked myself that exact same question. Under a normal competitive environment, the JPMs would be circling the water maybe trying to force margin calls etc in an effort to get FRC to fold and pick up its assets for pennies on the dollar. Obviously there are broader contagion concerns here lol.
brb liquidating all accounts and buying bulletsmodnegged4life
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03-21-2023, 06:44 AM #2874
This market is full meme again and exactly why I cashed out everything besides my tradition and Roth, and just buy Puts every so often when it’s too obvious something has been pumped to oblivion.
These guys don’t give a fuk that they’re setting us up for another financial collapse▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ஜ۩۞۩ஜ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
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"Over 90% of muscle gain is stretching" - ReppinRyan & AnimalAdam
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03-21-2023, 07:09 AM #2875
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03-21-2023, 08:51 AM #2876
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03-21-2023, 09:10 AM #2877
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FRC looked like it was circling the drain yesterday.
Up 40% today. LOL.*MFC Elder Statesmen Cabinet Crew*
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03-21-2023, 09:18 AM #2878
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03-21-2023, 09:19 AM #2879
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03-21-2023, 09:28 AM #2880
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