Incentives. I personally believe everything that happens is a function of incentive. I.e. I believe China looked at what would happen if they didn't take those actions, and there was sufficient incentive to react the way they did.
Trump is all about the economy and stock market. His incentive is stock pricing and economic impact. It is not surprising to me that the narrative of our government right now is in line with trying to keep everyone calm and avoid impacts to the market.
Our media is both biased and ravenous for viewership. So the incentive to keep people watching, while also painting trump in a bad light explains the level of hype we are now seeing with US MSM.
At this point I think we are a few weeks away from seeing behind the curtain. We are right around the same place as Wuhan was at the time they started locking things down, but that's using our nationwide totals, not just the totals from one city. In a couple of weeks individual cities will start to either look like Wuhan, or they won't. Only time will tell.
EDIT:
I feel this is relevant to the thread topic, in that supply chain interruptions and workforce impacts will start to emerge based on the outcome of the next few weeks. This may be the pin that pricked the bubble, but if this virus ends up being contained, I think it's possible we don't see full blow recession levels of downside.
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03-09-2020, 10:52 AM #121We are all gunna make it
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03-09-2020, 11:12 AM #122
- Join Date: Oct 2012
- Location: San Diego, California, United States
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I’m in real estate and don’t really follow stock market but from what I’m seeing is homes here are still selling like fukin hot cakes. Especially anything under 1m. Median here is 600k but really a decent sized house in good area is 700k+.
This crash makes me want to buy some stocks but likely I’ll hold off until I see it bottom out and start riding. Feel like it’s too early to buy now as it will dip moreFollow your dreams, or spend the rest of your life working for someone who did.
*Real Madrid Crew*
*BMW Crew*
*KTM Crew*
*European Crew*
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03-09-2020, 11:15 AM #123
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03-09-2020, 11:20 AM #124
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03-09-2020, 11:20 AM #125
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03-09-2020, 11:32 AM #126
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03-09-2020, 11:43 AM #127
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03-09-2020, 12:04 PM #128
- Join Date: May 2009
- Location: Chicago, Illinois, United States
- Age: 39
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03-09-2020, 12:09 PM #129
You have no idea what you're talking about. If you bought s&p500 in 2016, you would have made a **** ton of money by selling even today. It was around 2000, now it's 3000. Early 2019 it was 2400. How about don't talk abou things you know nothing about? Seriously it's so easy to check what you think and yet you still fail to do that. Just lol if you think this is the bottom of the coming year. Even the fact that you say "if you're looking at data you're already too late" shows much of an idiot you are. Of course you look at data, how the phuck else should you know what's true? This is why you don't know anything, go pray to the spaghetti monster.
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03-09-2020, 12:12 PM #130
Financial losses are felt much more keenly than gains. It is hard to lose 20% of your net worth in a few days with potentially a lot more losses to come, so people flee to safer assets out of fear.
I just read a great piece about bubbles/market volatility that is quite useful to read at a time like this:
https://www.collaborativefund.com/up...%20Bubbles.pdf
Cliffs:
- A bubble/extreme market volatility is not irrational because people are always looking to maximize returns for the minimum amount of risk.
- Times of market stability breed market instability - people bid risky asset prices up because they seem safe and stable.
- It is rational for investors to migrate from long-term investing to short-term investing if there is enough price momentum. Short-term investing can seem like higher reward for much lower risk.
- People are playing by different rules in the same market - a price that makes no sense to a long-term investor makes perfect sense to a short-term investor
- You have to know which rules you are playing by and what timeframe you are investing for (know thyself)
- These types of markets account for the majority of your returns for the next 10 years - very important time to make decisions.
That was my attempt at summarizing the article, probably easier to read the article yourself though lol.***Trapped on prison island crew***
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03-09-2020, 12:23 PM #131
- Join Date: Oct 2012
- Location: San Diego, California, United States
- Age: 35
- Posts: 4,374
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Exactly. Since I do acquisitions (we flip homes) I deal with a lot more agents and transactions on daily basis. Some of these agents get so fukin cocky with their listings it rustles my jimmies like no other. They overprice their chit listings and act like they are Josh Altman. Then a month later when they are stale on market they call me asking if I’m still interested. Just lol
Follow your dreams, or spend the rest of your life working for someone who did.
*Real Madrid Crew*
*BMW Crew*
*KTM Crew*
*European Crew*
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03-09-2020, 12:24 PM #132
Some investors set a low-limit to their stock prices to avoid large losses. E.g. they set a price limit of 200 and when the stock price goes below it, they sell. Now when a lot of people have that limit, they have to drop their selling price lower because most people are not buying for the price they want to sell. This creates a feedback loop where the stock prices start to plummet. It creates panic, so people will also start selling stocks that are not doing so bad yet.
And also, stocks represent actual companies. When trouble hits, companies can go bankrupt like Flybe just did. The financial system is like a house cards. Once some companies start go bankrupt, they aren't paying back their loans, and those who they owed money to can't pay their bills, and it starts a chain of bankruptcies. People want to get out before the company they own stock in goes bankrupt. Stock owners are basically the last to get anything when a company goes bankrupt, so it's better to sell for a little loss than to lose everything. And even though the stock prices in general will go back up and to a higher level than they now are, many of the current top dog companies will not survive. Currently companies stay in the S&P500 on average for 18 years, it used to be 60 years 50 years ago. McKinsey predicts that by 2027, 75% of current companies will disappear from the S&P500. The churn rate of successful companies is getting faster and faster, and that means most people who invest in individual stocks will lose a lot of money unless they are smart and get out.
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03-09-2020, 12:47 PM #133
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03-09-2020, 12:49 PM #134
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03-09-2020, 01:05 PM #135
The thinking is that any gains made over the last few years will vanish, so if you sell right now b4 your 100 dollar shares drop back down to the 10 that you paid for them, you will still be ahead.
So it is one part fear and one part not just breaking even or losing money.There is an unspoken thing, we are iron brothers and sisters, we are to support each other and...It is our duty to support our brothers and sisters in the iron game!
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03-09-2020, 01:08 PM #136
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03-09-2020, 01:09 PM #137
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03-09-2020, 01:12 PM #138
don't underestimate the amount of people adding to their portfolios on margin on the way up, a ton of them have to liquidate to prevent margin calls
- not to mention most of the daily volume trading is done by algos, so these massive movements are algos tripping on each other's selling
- a ton of people are buying/selling index -> which means that the index funds have to sell everything in the index
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03-09-2020, 01:13 PM #139
I have 2.5 million in cash. Ready to enter the market very soon.
On our block we still play."I am a rational animal who occupies the intermediary position between angel and beast"
"The upper class is afforded their position by the collective burden the underclass must carry for them"
**Summer Walker Crew**
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03-09-2020, 01:30 PM #140
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03-09-2020, 02:09 PM #141
- Join Date: Jan 2010
- Location: Calgary, Alberta, Canada
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Yes, but isn't that over a significant period of time? Stock prices show real time valuation, but certainly an entire corporations useable cash isn't tied to market valuation? I can't see how a company can fail to pay back loans/liabilities just because of market dips - or am I just ignorant and most debits/credits are based on perceived value?
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03-09-2020, 08:51 PM #142
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03-09-2020, 10:07 PM #143
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03-09-2020, 10:15 PM #144
oil down cause saudi is in oil war with russia, ppl selling is idiots unless your selling oil. Dow was brought down by oil price slash by the saudi arabia. Then bunch of fools sell other stocks / robin hood users losing there money selling stocks not in the oil sector.
Get yourself a financial advisor and let the pro's handle it if your on robinhood selling your stocks you need to quit and let someone who knows financing.I just want to share the knowledge I have obtained throughout my life and hopefully change someone's life.
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03-09-2020, 10:17 PM #145
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03-09-2020, 10:17 PM #146
Buffett has 100 billion of cash, he didnt want to buy stocks with it. Look at his actions and not his recent words. Also do you know what the buffett indicator is?
I am not saying by the way stocks are going to crash, actually I am long currently for a bounce. However the worldwide debt that we have created- $275 trillion, will crash the whole system one day. Is this the big one? No idea.
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03-09-2020, 10:20 PM #147
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03-09-2020, 10:24 PM #148
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03-09-2020, 10:27 PM #149
This is the result, not the reason. The stocks are crashing because the current economy is built upon a sea of debt supported by tax cuts and fed interventions. Coronavirus phucked chit up, because people are in a panic, industries are getting disrupted, airline and travel industry for example are taking a huge hit. This will affect earnings , the stock market is based on future potential earnings, if earnings are taking a dive, so will stock market that depends on those earnings.
If chit gets worse, since so many companies are loaded with debt, they may go bankrupt and then it may create a domino effect.
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03-09-2020, 10:31 PM #150
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