**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Carbonfibre]

If the market moons next week post FOMC

read what I said above again.


Jerome has had the chance to tell this market to chill many times.


What has it done every fomc?

squeezed like mofo.

just saying.





fyi next week is the chance where market should go back to SP 4900-5000.

if you see move to upside....yeah guess what matters more.

growth >>>> inflation.




remember these are the same idiots that said inflation was transitory.

now they saying inflation is over.

there you go


market exploded higher

[ajctennis]

Yep, fed has given up on getting inflation to 2%, talking about still doing rate cuts and also QT taper. The poors are screwed. Would think stocks and especially smallcaps do well going forward. Wonder if we do see a large crash later in the year though. For now, probably upwards.

[RobParks2M]

Where’s my FNMA/FMCC brah at? judge is about to write his final judgement so we will be moving closer to getting fukkin paid out damages. I’m in line for a moderately deep 5 figure payment roughly 1/2 my purchase price for my preferred shares. Even more important is this case can be used as precedent for future lawsuits. It’s about time. Unsure when this all gets wrapped up but I’ll ride the trump train to October and decide if I want to hold through election or if I want to sell. Just look how these 2 have done with previous election cycles. If you don’t believe trump would release them read the letter he wrote to Rand Paul about it.

[Destor]

Three 0.25 rate cuts this year doesn’t seem unreasonable if things continue on their current path

Fed Funds rate would still be 3%+ going into 2027

[TugOfPeace]

Will be interesting to see how growth stonks do this year

I dont understand why he didnt atleast reduce the quantity of rate hikes though.

I would say this seems like a political move but idk. Imagine if he reduced the amount of rate hikes or added another. Thats what we need isnt it? Would hurt the stock market in an election year but it needs to happen

[Carbonfibre]

Yep, fed has given up on getting inflation to 2%, talking about still doing rate cuts and also QT taper. The poors are screwed. Would think stocks and especially smallcaps do well going forward. Wonder if we do see a large crash later in the year though. For now, probably upwards.

Like most are predicting new admin means Jerome is out of job next year.



Make this someone else problem next year.

Once he mentioned QT taper it was like hit the bid hard for market.

[Destor]

None of that looks crazy to me, they’re expecting it will take almost three years for Core PCE to go from 2.6% to 2.0% and median Fed Funds rate is still 3.1%

Maybe it’ll be more drawn out, maybe the end rate will be a bit higher, but it seems mostly reasonable. If inflation continues heading upward again, that would really change things.

[looxmatter]

None of that looks crazy to me, they’re expecting it will take almost three years for Core PCE to go from 2.6% to 2.0% and median Fed Funds rate is still 3.1%

Maybe it’ll be more drawn out, maybe the end rate will be a bit higher, but it seems mostly reasonable. If inflation continues heading upward again, that would really change things.

100% expecting the bump inflation is due to seasonality's. Wonder how true that is.

**** most of my money is on the sidelines in a money market fund waiting patiently. **** me.

[Abzu]

There is a good chance stocks like NFLX continue to go up after the fed meeting, this would suggest that the S&P can break its previous high at least one more time before the correction really begins, NFLX should go to about ~630 but you also have APPL, TSLA, GOOG, ect

Since everyone is so scared of Jpow right now and it seems obv to everyone that he should correct the market, that could also mean a move higher before we go lower.

There is also a lot of support that prob needs to get tested before it gets broken.

Posted that just before the fed meeting.

None of that looks crazy to me, they’re expecting it will take almost three years for Core PCE to go from 2.6% to 2.0% and median Fed Funds rate is still 3.1%

Maybe it’ll be more drawn out, maybe the end rate will be a bit higher, but it seems mostly reasonable. If inflation continues heading upward again, that would really change things.

Core CPI is still at 3.8, it has come in at 3.8, 3.9 and 3.9 on the last 3 prints while jerome is over here talking about how he is going to cut rates for sure lol and that he is going to cut them about 3 times for no apparent reason lol, he is saying inflation is on the "path to 2%" but that means the same thing as "inflation is transitory" lol... it means nothing.

[SipNPiz]

Gas and diesel prices up 80 cents this month might mean hotter March flation numbahs

[NestBrah]

Posted that just before the fed meeting.



Core CPI is still at 3.8, it has come in at 3.8, 3.9 and 3.9 on the last 3 prints while jerome is over here talking about how he is going to cut rates for sure lol and that he is going to cut them about 3 times for no apparent reason lol, he is saying inflation is on the "path to 2%" but that means the same thing as "inflation is transitory" lol... it means nothing.

Are still expecting the S&P 500 to hit mid 4000s?

Personally I am. Or at least 4800.

[Abzu]

Are still expecting the S&P 500 to hit mid 4000s?

Personally I am. Or at least 4800.

Yes.

I feel the same, what JPow said to congress did not move me, I try to live in reality lol.

I said earlier that ~5150 was going to be a temporary top and even gave the target where it should fall next.

I won't be surprised if the S&P does not go down to ~4450, I expect a bounce at ~4775, but yes, I think <4600 is still in play and I think it begins this month.



I'll be mildly bearish then strongly bullish then strongly bearish through most of 2024.

Right now I'm bullish AAPL and bearish S&P at the same time lol.

My mood is all about timing.

I feel the same.

I gave you targets of ~5150 and ~5200.

I'll rep you with the next target and I think this one will likely be the top before the correction begins.

[Abzu]

I've been picking up some great stocks recently and have many more just at the cusp of my buy targets, I'll prob start posting tickers and then follow up posts with what I bought, entry point and where I plan to exit or buy puts on it.

I'll probably post when I sell options on them and on stuff I don't own.

I'm so rich and bored I'm turning to philanthropy now lol.

[kusok]

Irresponsibly deployed almost all my remaining cash into Tesla overnight, clean spark in the morning and microstrategy once I saw the beginning of some pop, lol, I’m glad that **** worked out,

In before correction.


Not srs
Inb4 100k bitcoin

[Destor]

One thing I would say to run counter of the Fed path reasonability, is that the CME tool suggests the market is incorrectly pricing in a higher chance of seeing more than 3 rate cuts this year rather than risk being on the other side.

No way is that the case, I think there is a higher chance of fewer than 3 cuts by the end of the year than a chance of more than 3 cuts. The Fed is likely too optimistic, the market's optimism continues compounding on top of the Fed's optimism. I'd say there's a higher chance of 0 rate cuts this year than 4 cuts.

The Fed's projection seems reasonable based on the current data, the market is unreasonably optimistic.

[Lefticle]

One thing I would say to run counter of the Fed path reasonability, is that the CME tool suggests the market is incorrectly pricing in a higher chance of seeing more than 3 rate cuts this year rather than risk being on the other side.

No way is that the case, I think there is a higher chance of fewer than 3 cuts by the end of the year than a chance of more than 3 cuts. The Fed is likely too optimistic, the market's optimism continues compounding on top of the Fed's optimism. I'd say there's a higher chance of 0 rate cuts this year than 4 cuts.

The Fed's projection seems reasonable based on the current data, the market is unreasonably optimistic.

People typically lose when they bet against the Fed.

Good luck.

[MinisterOfLust]

I've been picking up some great stocks recently and have many more just at the cusp of my buy targets, I'll prob start posting tickers and then follow up posts with what I bought, entry point and where I plan to exit or buy puts on it.

I'll probably post when I sell options on them and on stuff I don't own.

I'm so rich and bored I'm turning to philanthropy now lol.

In jpg

[Robmnrd]

A page or two ago I brought up DEO and how I think it is at a good entry for long-term holders (I know there are some ITT).

I'm wondering if BMY is a similar story. Any thoughts? I tend to stay away from pharm because I just don't know the industry very well, but this one seems 'safe' compared to some of the others and again, ignoring any short-term fluctuations I feel like now may be a decent entry.

I began DCAing into DEO, might start into BMY as well unless someone in here has some big 'I know pharma and you shouldn't do it' information that I'm not privy to.

I appreciate this thread because I feel like it is one of the last few examples of Miscers that can actually think through an intended subject, so any thoughts one way or the other are appreciated.

[BBAckman]

Where’s my FNMA/FMCC brah at? judge is about to write his final judgement so we will be moving closer to getting fukkin paid out damages. I’m in line for a moderately deep 5 figure payment roughly 1/2 my purchase price for my preferred shares. Even more important is this case can be used as precedent for future lawsuits. It’s about time. Unsure when this all gets wrapped up but I’ll ride the trump train to October and decide if I want to hold through election or if I want to sell. Just look how these 2 have done with previous election cycles. If you don’t believe trump would release them read the letter he wrote to Rand Paul about it.

Yea baby i'm always here, I had some spare cash this morning and for some reason gambled it DWAC since their vote is coming up (the spac rush brings back good memories), and sold some CC's for friday with how high the IV was. Regretting not grabbing more FNMA/FNMAS instead.

Part of me just wanted to close them up, sell, and go balls deep into some more fannie.

[RobParks2M]

Yea baby i'm always here, I had some spare cash this morning and for some reason gambled it DWAC since their vote is coming up (the spac rush brings back good memories), and sold some CC's for friday with how high the IV was. Regretting not grabbing more FNMA/FNMAS instead.

Part of me just wanted to close them up, sell, and go balls deep into some more fannie.

I’m irresponsibly deep in the fnma trade. But if it works out it’s a 7 figure trade for me if they keep pref shares at face value and commons go meaningfully past $10 a share. I sold half my common position around $1.15 on FMCC and I’m full of regrats today

[BBAckman]

I’m irresponsibly deep in the fnma trade. But if it works out it’s a 7 figure trade for me if they keep pref shares at face value and commons go meaningfully past $10 a share. I sold half my common position around $1.15 on FMCC and I’m full of regrats today

Feels bad bro, just looked at my account history to confirm price and I did pretty much the same thing and sold a boat load of FMCC at 1.08 on Feb 12th.

It's all good though, we'll be laughing when they give us a light at the end of the tunnel moment for ending conservatorship and commons fly to 20+

[Destor]

People typically lose when they bet against the Fed.

Good luck.

I’m not betting on any of this stuff and have zero positions tied to it. I also think the current Fed path is totally reasonable, as long as the data continue being accommodative.

The market is what’s being overly optimistic, 4 rate cuts almost certainly aren’t happening so risk should be skewed to the other side rather than optimistically.

100% of my portfolio is Oil & Gas, not even something the Fed tries to consider or influence

[_zman]

Yep, fed has given up on getting inflation to 2%, talking about still doing rate cuts and also QT taper. The poors are screwed. Would think stocks and especially smallcaps do well going forward. Wonder if we do see a large crash later in the year though. For now, probably upwards.

I was anticipating rate cuts, so I moved more $$ to small and mids couple weeks ago. I think they could be undervalued regardless. Need to research some of the holdings some more. I might find a good company to pick up along the way.

[RobParks2M]

I’m not betting on any of this stuff and have zero positions tied to it. I also think the current Fed path is totally reasonable, as long as the data continue being accommodative.

The market is what’s being overly optimistic, 4 rate cuts almost certainly aren’t happening so risk should be skewed to the other side rather than optimistically.

100% of my portfolio is Oil & Gas, not even something the Fed tries to consider or influence

I agree. I thought markets had too high of expectations so I sold my bond position TLT at $98. I think I’ll be re-entering closer to $90 eventually.

Powell kinda screwed my May NYCB puts a little bit giving the market the leeway and expectation of cuts by summer. I think as we get closer to that time they’ll reconsider when markets are still going up or at worst sideways. I think july puts might still be worthwhile, but we will have to see. I should find some time later this week to look at overall bank deposit trends and get a better idea of how they are all doing. Thankfully my NYCB position is around $1,200 total so less than 1% of my portfolio.

[NestBrah]

Yes.



I feel the same.

I gave you targets of ~5150 and ~5200.

I'll rep you with the next target and I think this one will likely be the top before the correction begins.

Where do you think it tops out? We're now at 5300.

[MinisterOfLust]

We buying Reddit IPO?

[Abzu]

Where do you think it tops out? We're now at 5300.

The same level I repped you, we aren't at 5300 yet, if you want a correlating indicator, I expect BTC to top around ~77K but the S&P may already be there and maybe BTC already topped at 75K.

[Lefticle]

We buying Reddit IPO?

Nope.

[NestBrah]

The same level I repped you, we aren't at 5300 yet, if you want a correlating indicator, I expect BTC to top around ~77K but the S&P may already be there and maybe BTC already topped at 75K.

Thanks man - just saw it! Interested to see if you're going to be right.

[Abzu]

Thanks man - just saw it! Interested to see if you're going to be right.