Don't look now, but Trump just pulled ahead

[2nd_chance]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump...ry?id=43199459

Trump is up by 1 point... whodathunk a couple weeks ago???

[GnomusMaximus]

[Jtbny]

Neat you posted 1 poll. How about the others?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ational-polls/

[Karl_Hungus]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump...ry?id=43199459

Trump is up by 1 point... whodathunk a couple weeks ago???

He is still behind in most polls, BUT, one reason is that most of the polls still have samples selected from prior to the email scandal. We won't really know the impact until all samples are drawn after the scandal.

Neat you posted 1 poll

Sometimes I think you are trying to appropriate ACC's posting style right down to the verbiage.

[Iceman1800]

Polls are rigged when Trump is losing.
Polls aren't rigged when Trump is winning.

[x-trainer ben]

As OTL says frequently.... i don't trust the polls! Wait who is in the lead now?^^^

[Karl_Hungus]

Polls are rigged when Trump is losing.
Polls aren't rigged when Trump is winning.

I've never said they were rigged. I fully believe that when aggregated, they are directionally correct.... Regardless of who they show as winning.

[Jtbny]

Sometimes I think you are trying to appropriate ACC's posting style right down to the verbiage.

Seriously? Well fuk off? Does he say that?

[2nd_chance]

Neat you posted 1 poll. How about the others?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ational-polls/

Well at least it wasn't Fox News .

Point is that he was trailing in ALL polls after his debacle, but the Hilary camp has to be very nervous at this point.

[2nd_chance]

Polls are rigged when Trump is losing.
Polls aren't rigged when Trump is winning.

I'm glad you finally got on board.

[dbx]

Neat you posted 1 poll. How about the others?

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ational-polls/

Here you go, John: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Karl_Hungus]

Well at least it wasn't Fox News .

Point is that he was trailing in ALL polls after his debacle, but the Hilary camp has to be very nervous at this point.

Also, on the tracking polls, as a greater proportion of samples are drawn post-scandal, we are seeing the gap between the candidates get smaller. My guess is that within a couple of days (when all samples are post-scandal), the tracking polls will show a virtual tie.

[2nd_chance]

One thing we know for sure about this presidential election when it comes to both candidates: The Bible is true (of course) when it says: "Be sure your sin will find you out" (Numbers 32:23).

[Jtbny]

Well at least it wasn't Fox News .

Point is that he was trailing in ALL polls after his debacle, but the Hilary camp has to be very nervous at this point.

Well this is true and I'm not saying the poll isn't valid. Its just a small piece of a larger picture. I'll concede I was totally wrong about a landslide victory for HC but in my defense that was before this new stuff :P Maybe he pulls it off, IDK, but there is no doubt he's picking up momentum at the most critical time.

Here you go, John: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I like this site, too. Both do a good job.

[machined]

In 80 Reagan was down by 8 and won by 10. In 2012 Obama was down by 2 and won by 4. The polls are wacked.

[Karl_Hungus]

In 80 Reagan was down by 8 and won by 10. In 2012 Obama was down by 2 and won by 4. The polls are wacked.

I've followed the state polls and national polls religiously since the 2000 election, and based on those polls, have correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential race since. Individual polls can be wrong, but as an aggregate, they tend to be right.

[Mark1T]

Either way, I don't put much faith in the polls. Interesting to watch, though.

Remember Carter and Reagan at the last stretch? Ooops, machined mentioned similar.

[dbx]

I like this site, too. Both do a good job.

Yep, it's fair and shows how "all over the place" individual polls are, but you can make your own deduction from the "total".

Either way, I don't put much faith in the polls.

Remember Carter and Reagan at the last stretch?

Same here....and yes, hoping it's another 1980 . I believe the mix might be right for it in this election. But still, the damn Electoral College......it's still a high hill for DT to climb. It'll take a near miracle (as of today) for him to overcome it.

[ajdahlheimer]

It would be crazy if DT won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College. Like Gore did.

[so-tex]

Well this is true and I'm not saying the poll isn't valid. Its just a small piece of a larger picture. I'll concede I was totally wrong about a landslide victory for HC but in my defense that was before this new stuff :P Maybe he pulls it off, IDK, but there is no doubt he's picking up momentum at the most critical time.
.

I had HRC winning as well, but never by a landslide. Now idk.

[Karl_Hungus]

Either way, I don't put much faith in the polls. Interesting to watch, though.

Remember Carter and Reagan at the last stretch? Ooops, machined mentioned similar.

I get it, but one exception 36 years ago doesn't invalidate the general rule. I still think Hillary is going to win (based on polls), but I would be thrilled to be proven wrong. So, I very much hope to be wrong in this instance.

[so-tex]

It would be crazy if DT won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College. Like Gore did.

It could very well happen.

[JUSA]

Polls are rigged when Trump is losing.
Polls aren't rigged when Trump is winning.

The polls are always rigged.

The pollsters know what they're doing and if anyone honestly thinks Trump was behind by 13 and is up by 1 in a week, I have some real bad news for you. If anything, this election cycle should have well proven by now to even the most ardent doubter that they're meaningless and only used to try and disenfranchise or alternatively motivate certain voter bases.

The polls will tighten right before the election, of course, because if they're saying Hillary is up by 13 on November 8th and she wins by 1-2 or actually loses, they end up looking like what they really are, which is charlatans, and they don't want that. So, magically, Trump is now neck and neck (even before the FBI bombshell). Right-o.

Many of us were around, if not overly political for the 1980 election. While I can't even speculate what will happen with this election, so far it's looking eerily similar to that one, at least with the biased polls.

[Mark1T]

I get it, but one exception 36 years ago doesn't invalidate the general rule. I still think Hillary is going to win (based on polls), but I would be thrilled to be proven wrong. So, I very much hope to be wrong in this instance.

Lol. I would love you to be wrong this one time

True the Reagan/Carter run was a big exception. If Hillary does win, she will have more baggage than all Presidents combined.

[dbx]

It would be crazy if DT won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College. Like Gore did.

It could very well happen.

It's a very high likelihood. (srs)

[dbx]

I should add: If it does go down that way, I fear DT acting like a child about it....even though he knows that it works this way.

[Jtbny]

The polls are always rigged.

The pollsters know what they're doing and if anyone honestly thinks Trump was behind by 13 and is up by 1 in a week, I have some real bad news for you. If anything, this election cycle should have well proven by now to even the most ardent doubter that they're meaningless and only used to try and disenfranchise or alternatively motivate certain voter bases.

The polls will tighten right before the election, of course, because if they're saying Hillary is up by 13 on November 8th and she wins by 1-2 or actually loses, they end up looking like what they really are, which is charlatans, and they don't want that. So, magically, Trump is now neck and neck (even before the FBI bombshell). Right-o.

Many of us were around, if not overly political for the 1980 election. While I can't even speculate what will happen with this election, so far it's looking eerily similar to that one, at least with the biased polls.

Except that the polls are historically accurate. Cool (hope ACC doesn't use this word) thing about things like this is we can actually look back and see how accurate the polls were. Turns out they do a really good job of predicting the winner and are close in by what %. Of course not always like in 1980 but for the most part they are accurate. Just because some here don't like what they say doesn't invalidate the results. This election could be a wild card though. In one week we will see.

[ljimd]

Hillary by 3

Go Tribe.

Many of us were around, if not overly political for the 1980 election. While I can't even speculate what will happen with this election, so far it's looking eerily similar to that one, at least with the biased polls.

I was around for that one. Seems to me the polls were close until the failed hostage Desert One rescue attempt which Carter was pilloried for. After the election the news had stories of the Reagan people arranging to hold up the release until after the election to insure Carter was defeated. It worked.

I don't think this election is similar.

Politics is fun.............to watch.

[kimm4]

I don't pay attention to the polls. At this point in the game let the chips fall where they may.

[dbx]

......Of course not always like in 1980 but for the most part they are accurate. Just because some here don't like what they say doesn't invalidate the results. This election could be a wild card though. In one week we will see.

Exactly. And this race appears that it will indeed (imo), be that wildcard run. Fwiw, "truer" polls will come out tomorrow. This was known a few days back, but people ignore that. IOW, polls tomorrow will more accurately reflect the damage done by Friday's news.