**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -II-

[DCarruso]

This whole Swine-Flu in Mexico and starting to spread to the U.S. could be a huge news story this week. Even if it doesn't turn out as bad as they say the media overhypes everything. At 8.00 monday I'm placing a huge buy order for NVAX. They ran to 8 during the Avian Bird Flu. They were up 75% during the day Friday adn 35% in afterhours. So over a 100% in a day. This could run up big this week.

Profiting from a potential global catastrophe... this is what we need more of in this thread.

No global catastrophy. Tamiflu, Relenz and even steroids are effective against this strain. There are 12 million doses of Tamiflu in stock.

Welcome back Kotter!

IMO, The shorts are being overloaded progressively. The deadlift grip is getting tested. I think you called it a few weeks ago. They want to drive down those put premiums. My $60 hbc puts are ok, but the $40s are taking a beating. Please tell us your coin flip results when they signal a sell please.

I will let you know when there is new development. Apparently the market has gone insane. What can you do? Who am I to argue against millions of idiots with gazillions more money than I do?

May be the big boys are manipulating the market so as to paint a less gloomy picture, so that they can return the TARP money.


Got a few charts here. Can't say I concur with the graphs. Mostly for entertainment value.

[nyr469]

This whole Swine-Flu in Mexico and starting to spread to the U.S. could be a huge news story this week. Even if it doesn't turn out as bad as they say the media overhypes everything. At 8.00 monday I'm placing a huge buy order for NVAX. They ran to 8 during the Avian Bird Flu. They were up 75% during the day Friday adn 35% in afterhours. So over a 100% in a day. This could run up big this week.

NVAX is up another 145% in the premarket

[Powers]

NVAX is up another 145% in the premarket

Yea, crazy isn't it. I decided not to chase it. Scottrade only allows pre-market trading between 8:00-9:15 and by then it has gone up over 100%

[nyr469]

Yea, crazy isn't it. I decided not to chase it. Scottrade only allows pre-market trading between 8:00-9:15 and by then it has gone up over 100%

yeah you peaked my interest with your post but once i saw how much it went up this morning i just consdered it as i missed it

[EllusioN]

World Markets Struck by Swine Flu Fears- AP WTF

[Powers]

yeah you peaked my interest with your post but once i saw how much it went up this morning i just consdered it as i missed it

Shoulda bought the crystal ball out of the closet Friday morning. It was trading for .80

[Sirtitan]

I was talking to my uncle who has a phd in some kind of statistics/psychology combo. and he brought up this point. We as humans don't handle randomness well. (He used clouds, how we see faces/shapes in them instead of ink blots)

And I thought it was an interesting point.

Very curious here.

Is this your uncle?

http://www.stat.rutgers.edu/people/faculty/gundy.html

[Sirtitan]

The term you are looking for is "Business Strategic Analysis". There are very few useful things they teach at business schoool. Strategic Analysis is one of those.

Most of the people who claim to do fundamental analysis, typically stop at financial statement analysis. They have ZERO understanding of what business strategic analysis is.

I don't think there's Business Strategic Analysis on the CFA either.

[NY Money Mike]

Very curious here.

Is this your uncle?

http://www.stat.rutgers.edu/people/faculty/gundy.html

No, this is:

http://www.psych.nyu.edu/cohen/

[Sirtitan]

Basically in the typical rat race, you tend to end up with CEOs who are incapable of having vision and leadership. They compromise too much to get there.

There is a joke about titanium booms, you can let a well trained ape run the company and still make money. I'm sure the same can be said of an over - leveraged environment.

[bp2519]

FAZ - my average price is 8.72

TO DA MOON

[FranchiseKid]

And the rally continues...... hmmmmm.

[dito]

Anyone have thoughts on cde? Seems to be gradually going up and up. I almost bought it back when it was .60 I am kicking myself now for not buying

[Mises]

What are some stocks below $5 to look around at. I don't really want to mess with stocks higher than that at the moment.

It might sound dumb, lol, but I just want to scope them out. I have a few I'm looking at but I don't plan on jumping in any time soon. I don't fully get this stuff yet.

[|ceman]

What are some stocks below $5 to look around at. I don't really want to mess with stocks higher than that at the moment.

It might sound dumb, lol, but I just want to scope them out. I have a few I'm looking at but I don't plan on jumping in any time soon. I don't fully get this stuff yet.

C
GM

[Mises]

C
GM

lol, already in my scope!

[Mises]

Another question: Is there somewhere, a website where you can find out about IPO's...like what companys are going to have one?

[DCarruso]

I don't think there's Business Strategic Analysis on the CFA either.

The CFA title is worth a pile of steamy monkey poop. Every guy at my old firm got one. Just about everyone in the finance sector got one or on his way to get one. It is a focking joke. I once asked the president how he got his since he is dead set against modern finance. He said you just study for the test the same way you study for any test. You don't need to believe in the materials.

Business statrageic analysis is not part of the finance curriculum. It is part of the MBA requirement.

The finance sector is still full of morons, people with no business being there. I hope Jim Rogers is right. Those people will be growing vegetable and driving taxi before this is over.

[SuperSonic88]

Is the american dollar crumbling?

Is the best investment right now gold coins/bullions?

[FranchiseKid]

The CFA title is worth a pile of steamy monkey poop. Every guy at my old firm got one. Just about everyone in the finance sector got one or on his way to get one. It is a focking joke. I once asked the president how he got his since he is dead set against modern finance. He said you just study for the test the same way you study for any test. You don't need to believe in the materials.

Business statrageic analysis is not part of the finance curriculum. It is part of the MBA requirement.

The finance sector is still full of morons, people with no business being there. I hope Jim Rogers is right. Those people will be growing vegetable and driving taxi before this is over.

I would come at it a bit differently. The finance sector was transformed at some point (I do not know yet when) into the tail that wagged the dog. Banks used to exist to fund projects and hold deposits that came into them. Now they exist to pump money out into the system to the point of encouraging excessive risk taking. When this shift occured we moved from having a financial system to a system based on "deals" and "fees" and "fund flows" and "risk". The system changed, the way of doing business changed, and when that happened it became one filled with schisters and schemes, aka morons. These people are just looking to make a deal, get some money, and move on.

Areas of expertise have been lost and deals done where you understand and know the client have long since disappeared. Hell, deals where you understand the asset have long since disappeared (perhaps turning them into liabilities).

I liken it to "news" stations. They used to report the news, now they try to create it.

[DCarruso]

You are talking about the transformation of commercial banking after the demise of Glass Steagall.

Commercial banks morphing into investment banks is just part of the story. That isn't the whole of Wall Street. Wall Street is always about investment banking an has ALWAYS being about wheeling and dealing. That has never changed.

[FranchiseKid]

You are talking about the transformation of commercial banking after the demise of Glass Steagall.

Commercial banks morphing into investment banks is just part of the story. That isn't the whole of Wall Street. Wall Street is always about investment banking an has ALWAYS being about wheeling and dealing. That has never changed.

No, I was going back much, much further than that and not really limiting it to a sector of the financial industry. There was a paradigm shift that occured, perhaps over time due to a one-time event, perhaps just over time. I don't know when and how but the shift took the fiduciary element out of these transactions and replaced it with unbridled hubris fueled by greed. It has almost gotten to the point where I bet we see some very highly regarded research papers come out over the next 5 years making a clear case for not investing in stocks that do not have free cash flow or pay a dividend. This type of thinking would severely undermine the current system our Central Bank uses to manipulate money.

[jack3d_brah9]

A similar question may have been asked here but there are way too many posts to go through hunting for something

Im a college student and Im going to have a job this summer while taking classes and was planning on saving most if not all of the money i make and investing it in some form or another, since I cannot work during the fall or spring semesters I would like to let my money make a little money for me. What are the best options for me and what advice do you have for someone getting into investing for the first time, also what would be a fairly safe option for investing at this point? Thanks for any and all help that is given.

[DCarruso]

Wall Street has always been about wheeling and dealing.

Things were even worse in the old days. Insider trading. Front running. Back room dealing. Wall Street was not a lot different from the Soprano, minus the killing. There was never a time when Wall Street was like Mr Roger's Neighborhood. Wall Street has always been a shark pool.

In reality, things are much better today. The retail investors are in much better positions vs the old days.


We have always had abuse in the finance sector. There has always been some crisis. It is not like what we have now is so out of the blue.

The root cause of the current problem is simply a regulatory oversight problem.

[DCarruso]

A similar question may have been asked here but there are way too many posts to go through hunting for something

Im a college student and Im going to have a job this summer while taking classes and was planning on saving most if not all of the money i make and investing it in some form or another, since I cannot work during the fall or spring semesters I would like to let my money make a little money for me. What are the best options for me and what advice do you have for someone getting into investing for the first time, also what would be a fairly safe option for investing at this point? Thanks for any and all help that is given.

Park your money at http://www.hussman.net/index.html

John Hussman knows what he is doing. I have a copy of the market timing model that is almost identical to what he uses. If my parents had invested $10k using that when I was born, I would be a multimillionaire by now. But instead, I am here posting on this forum while waiting for the market to come my way....

[ShroomStamp]

This just in...
Deaths for "swine flu" came in less than expected by analysts.......Markets rally to all time highs! Analysts expected over 15 million deaths, while only a 100 or so were reported. Much less than analysts feared.

[FranchiseKid]

Wall Street has always been about wheeling and dealing.

Things were even worse in the old days. Insider trading. Front running. Back room dealing. Wall Street was not a lot different from the Soprano, minus the killing. There was never a time when Wall Street was like Mr Roger's Neighborhood. Wall Street has always been a shark pool.

In reality, things are much better today. The retail investors are in much better positions vs the old days.


We have always had abuse in the finance sector. There has always been some crisis. It is not like what we have now is so out of the blue.

The root cause of the current problem is simply a regulatory oversight problem.

I understand. I grew up in the business on Wall Street. I agree and accept that Wall Street has been about wheeling and dealing. I am speaking of a different type of paradigm shift that occurs off of "the street" and in the minds/hearts of the people making the deals. Finance used to exist b/c of our world, our world now depends on finance. That was not the way it was in the old days and certainly not the way it was intended. While on the surface it may appear that the retail investor is better off, I am not sure that the system as a whole is better off and more stable.

[FranchiseKid]

This just in...
Deaths for "swine flu" came in less than expected by analysts.......Markets rally to all time highs! Analysts expected over 15 million deaths, while only a 100 or so were reported. Much less than analysts feared.

Brilliant.

[blacksuperman]

everyone I talk to thinks we will collapse..we will retest the lows as they say!!! LOL YA RIGHT!...how many trillions are on the sidelines???


The facts are banks are posting the best profits in the worst financial crisis!!

hell I am buying anything that posts a profit in a depression!

the facts are Obama saved the markets in 2 months= best president in history!!

go to my thread in R&P..I am calling for dow 12k-13k before a pull back.

Curious to know how you came to your 12k-13k expectation?

[DanGK]

What do you guys think about DivX, looks like an absolutely solid company, with tons of cash, good records and good product. Their stock is not so much influenced by general market psychology and seems to be sticking to it's trends pretty well.