**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[RobParks2M]

Can't believe they're calculating such a low probability of above 6.6%. I'm like 95% sure it will be above 6.6%.

Don't get me wrong, it would be fantastic for my tech growth stocks if it's below 6.6%. But I'd be shocked.

I guess we'll see.

I don’t think it’s possible to see over 6.6% but the fed is trying to prevent wage growth from forcing inflation up going forward. Powell is adamant he’s going to keep pushing and force equity markets down.

Somehow markets are betting against him for the first time literally ever. They keep saying “muh data” but Powell has literally said idc about the data rates go up

[Venom08]

SPX and QQQ are once again at resistance trend lines set in place since the all time highs. We’re in for a sell off.

[Abzu]

No one has posted the most important catalyst for moving the market down this year, Venom mentioned expansion of war but I don't think that is likely, at least not on the scale that can usurp the catalyst no one has mentioned.

I really want to say it lol but you know, no free lunch lol.

I wish someone would say it so I can cosign =[.

[Carbonfibre]

tomorrow for CPI they have implied move of ~100 points on SP 500.


going off that SPX is at that same resistance all of 2022 that was sell off and the 200 daily moving average at spx 4000.


this does feel like rug pull is being setup / sneaky one.


if CPI is soft any rally should be sold off the days after.

if CPI is hot

boom 3850-3800 in blink of eye.

[Venom08]

I entered SPY puts at the close

[jumpman023]

this is lame, I have 40% of my retirement funds on the sidelines waiting to buy dips and market keeps going up. I hope jpow does 75bps to make all these arrogant cock suckers think twice before pumping

its just delaying the problem and letting the bubble get bigger and bigger

LMAO ngmi

[lntense]

tomorrow for CPI they have implied move of ~100 points on SP 500.


going off that SPX is at that same resistance all of 2022 that was sell off and the 200 daily moving average at spx 4000.


this does feel like rug pull is being setup / sneaky one.


if CPI is soft any rally should be sold off the days after.

if CPI is hot

boom 3850-3800 in blink of eye.

Gotta love how the levels and events all line up.



Market one big algo

[MinisterOfLust]

Meme stocks are back? FOMO on BBBY

[jumpman023]

tour isn't over yet boyo. SPY 396 is when I went cash. only did that recently when I rolled over all my funds from another employer

started thinking about it though, it wouldn't matter in the long run even if I bought in @ SPY 440 or something ridiculous at this point. I'm averaging in 26x a year from paycheck contributions and still have 20-25 years to go

Imagine what would happen if you didn't try to time the market with the other 40% and just let it compound over that same time horizon, like most wealthy people do, instead

[RobParks2M]

Imagine what would happen if you didn't try to time the market with the other 40% and just let it compound over that same time horizon, like most wealthy people do, instead

lulz. Till we limit down when Powell says we aren't fighting past #s we are focused on keeping future #s reasonable. FIFTY POINT HIKE MAFAKA. ACT OUTTA PLACE AND I'LL MAKE IT 75 NEXT MEETING

[2020Wellness]

this is lame, I have 40% of my retirement funds on the sidelines waiting to buy dips and market keeps going up. I hope jpow does 75bps to make all these arrogant cock suckers think twice before pumping

its just delaying the problem and letting the bubble get bigger and bigger

There's something to be said for the old saying 'time in the market is more important than timing the market.' Especially for retirement funds.

Just think about it, the major markets are down roughly 20% right now. If that isn't a good enough time to get that money back in and start letting it work for you, it probably never will be.

There are just so many stats out there that point to not trying to time the market for long term holds. Dude, you're 20-25 years out. Get the money in there.

[2020Wellness]

CPI fell 0.1%, in line with economist expectations. The consumer price index was expected to decrease 0.1% on a monthly basis and increase 6.5% from a year ago in December, according to Dow Jones estimates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/cons...ectations.html

[Duckliver]

Dunno I’m still here with my 1.8k GME long term hold and picked up 33calls expiring feb 10th 2 days ago

[Carbonfibre]

you just keep on giving money to Citadel playing gme options.


retail gets all hyped up because of BBBY squeeze


meanwhile some fund out there is giving fuel so they can short GME from higher.

[Carbonfibre]

looks like shelter becoming problem

apart from that inline.


nobody wins here expect Citadel


they made put and call holders burn today

[thatsnarf]

have some BBBY cc @4.00 x4 exp 1/13

if i wanted to keep the shares i would just do the opposite and do the following correct:

Sell to close
qty 4
exp 1/13
and whatever price



correct?

[Carbonfibre]

have some BBBY cc @4.00 x4 exp 1/13

if i wanted to keep the shares i would just do the opposite and do the following correct:

Sell to close
qty 4
exp 1/13
and whatever price



correct?

opposite of what you did.

you sold to open those calls

now you need to buy to close

[thatsnarf]

opposite of what you did.

you sold to open those calls

now you need to buy to close

dude, this i why i double check here as well. i looked at it online like 2 minutes before i asked that here and i already forgot what i read.

thanks man.

if i buy to close at lets say 3.75, i just don't get all the premium correct?

[Carbonfibre]

dude, this i why i double check here as well. i looked at it online like 2 minutes before i asked that here and i already forgot what i read.

thanks man.

if i buy to close at lets say 3.75, i just don't get all the premium correct?

wait wut 4C expiring tmmrw should not be worth that much atm.

what did you sell the calls for?


lets assume you sold those calls when they were $1 each.

you can buy it back now that they are OTM.

would keep the difference.

lets assume

4x CC sold for $1 each.

you got $400 for them

now you buy back at lets say $0.2 cents each so $80

you would have profit of $400-80 = $320.

[mulletwarrior]

CPI fell 0.1%, in line with economist expectations. The consumer price index was expected to decrease 0.1% on a monthly basis and increase 6.5% from a year ago in December, according to Dow Jones estimates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/cons...ectations.html

See a lot of ppl celebrating and declaring "soft landing."

To the contrary, I think banks etc. want a hard landing so that fed feels forced to turn the money printers back on. Think it would almost be better if we were nosediving into a hard landing so the printers could be turned back on sooner. Instead, I think we will stagnate for a while because banks aren't going to use their own capital to prop up main street. Once we finally accept we are in a recession, money printers turn back on and it is party again.

[thatsnarf]

wait wut 4C expiring tmmrw should not be worth that much atm.

what did you sell the calls for?


lets assume you sold those calls when they were $1 each.

you can buy it back now that they are OTM.

would keep the difference.

lets assume

4x CC sold for $1 each.

you got $400 for them

now you buy back at lets say $0.2 cents each so $80

you would have profit of $400-80 = $320.

i put that order in on 12/21 lol for like 4 X.20 = 80$

i know that i'd be losing money but "what if" this pops off even more? lol


the bid is at like .34 now


just trying to game plan just in case.

[Destor]

Is shelter being driven mostly by rents? That can't be home prices right, and mortgage costs shouldn't be shooting up when the US has fixed rates for 25 years

Housing is one of the top targets of interest rate hikes along with autos, but I don't know if this means increased risk of more hikes or if rents are being driven upward by the higher interest rates and that means the Fed would need to ease off to bring them down

[Carbonfibre]

i put that order in on 12/21 lol for like 4 X.20 = 80$

i know that i'd be losing money but "what if" this pops off even more? lol


the bid is at like .34 now


just trying to game plan just in case.

ah okay.

just keep eye on it.

I am bit skeptical they are going to get BBBY over $4 but you never know with squeezes.

Is shelter being driven mostly by rents? That can't be home prices right, and mortgage costs shouldn't be shooting up when the US has fixed rates for 25 years

Housing is one of the top targets of interest rate hikes along with autos, but I don't know if this means increased risk of more hikes or if rents are being driven upward by the higher interest rates and that means the Fed would need to ease off to bring them down

Will see tonight when articles come out.

I would guess its rents as well.

[RobParks2M]

Vix sub 20 ho lee

[Carbonfibre]

only winner today is premium sellers

unreal theta crush

might be one of the biggest theta crushes in years.

CPI hype was insane

all you got is pure potato.





lmaooo at run netflix is having going into earnings.

skeptical hippo.jpeg

[RobParks2M]

only winner today is premium sellers

unreal theta crush

might be one of the biggest theta crushes in years.

CPI hype was insane

all you got is pure potato.





lmaooo at run netflix is having going into earnings.

skeptical hippo.jpeg

Sold my sofi CCs for next week. Hoping it stays above $5 cuz I’m hodling my Feb $5 CSP and April $4 CSP. My CSP don’t seem to be getting theta crushed… queue the epic selloff. Someone knows something


Jk no one knows anything.


In other news Sbux Feb puts weren’t the play.

[2020Wellness]

Vix sub 20 ho lee

Just under 20% up in the next year would be OK. Down that much would be cool too.

I'm hoping for continued similar prices or decline, personally.

[RobParks2M]

Wonder what happens with SOFI end of January when the announce Q4/2022 results, would be sweet if they broke $8 again

They’ll probably do very well once people are refinancing their student loans again. People taking out loans right now are gonna have Yuge interest rates.


Edit: just noticed now too the USD getting wrecked wat.

[Carbonfibre]

USD is getting steam rolled

BTC Pumping

Meme names pumping

Yields diving

SP 500 over 200 DMA




Suspect stuff atm but don't ever short slow moving market it can grind higher till they decide to take profit.

Momentum is with buyers.

Trying to get in front of it will hurt.

Better to join ride (feels late atm) or wait till it starts to go other way.

[2020Wellness]

If Biden keeps on extending the student loan moratorium SOFI won't benefit though. It "ends" in June this year but this fuker will probably extend it again to 2024 elections lmao

Read about the new program guidelines they're releasing. They're VERY forgiving and income-based. Some will qualify for payments of $0.00 per month, srs.