Texas, Florida, Arizona and other Red States getting REKT by Covid-19

[isingmodel]

By all rights Covid should have absolutely destroyed Japan. People here have been wearing masks just as much, Japan has the oldest olds, a population density that's astounding, and they did less locking down than most US states. Then you have countries like Peru. Dystopian type lockdowns, unmitigated spread the whole time. The correlation between lockdowns and spread is weak. It's amusing seeing the multiple examples of governments taking credit for slowing the spread with lockdowns, even though the spread was slowing before the lockdowns.

Between 25-33% of extra deaths this year in the US are directly from lockdowns. The extra deaths happening in the next 5 years as result of lockdown are locked in to easily supersede Covid deaths. And unlike with Covid, they won't be 80% over age 65. There will be a lot more people in their 20s and 40s. You should read outside of a narrow range of self-reinforcing data points.

Japan having an obesity rate of 3.6% likely has something to do with it, plus a range of other possible factors. Although picking random individual countries and claiming that refutes a statistical association is not how you do this- read the above papers and Bayesian analyses, there is a very clear temporal association of lockdowns and NPIs on viral spread and hospitalisations. The irony of talking about a narrow range of data points when that's what you are doing.

Regarding excess deaths from other causes, that is obviously a real concern to address- but the US seems quite unique in having such a discrepancy between COVID19 mortality and total excess mortality. In Europe, COVID19 mortality and total excess mortality match up fairly well both temporally and in terms of magnitude with only a small gap. What does this mean? It will take longer to tell with certainly - likely a significant chunk of that is simply unrecognised COVID19 mortality given that a significant amount of that unexplained excess mortality closely mirrored the peak in COVID19 hospitalisations and cases (with a small temporal lag), and some of it is undoubtedly deaths due to knock-on effects of NPIs.

But the number you want to be comparing to is not the current COVID deaths, but the COVID deaths we could have seen in an unmitigated pandemic. And as I highlighted in that post, there is no direct trade off between saving lives from COVID19 and the economy, businesses, livelihoods etc. The association runs in the other direction, if anything.

[terrorgunt]

We need a National Lockdown, a National Curfew and a National Mask Mandate. All of this needs to be enforced with heavy fines and arrests.

lmao

I know you're kidding - but they aren't.

Commies need eradicated from the Earth.

[ghostfacedup]

lmao

I know you're kidding - but they aren't.

Commies need eradicated from the Earth.

vaccine ID will be coming next. You'll be shamed and outcast if you don't have it. Stupid sheep.

[ceizer1985]

Look at these *******s^ if tomorrow there was a terrorist attack in paris and three people died. The same *******s would be up in arms and coming up with all creative ways to shut it down.

now...since it's their own ****ery that's put USA in the position of losing 3000 deaths a day...they pretend like it's no big deal and we should move on.

#neverforget #americafirst right *******s?

[ceizer1985]

We need a National Lockdown, a National Curfew and a National Mask Mandate. All of this needs to be enforced with heavy fines and arrests.

nah we just need to get rid of morons like you.

[terrorgunt]

Look at these *******s^ if tomorrow there was a terrorist attack in paris and three people died. The same *******s would be up in arms and coming up with all creative ways to shut it down.

now...since it's their own ****ery that's put USA in the position of losing 3000 deaths a day...they pretend like it's no big deal and we should move on.

#neverforget #americafirst right *******s?

Shut what down? Mooslim immigration? I want that shut down with 0 terrorist acts.

[ceizer1985]

Shut what down? Mooslim immigration? I want that shut down with 0 terrorist acts.

i know you do...you hypocritical fukface.

[terrorgunt]

i know you do...you hypocritical fukface.

I fuk your mom's face

[ghostfacedup]

Look at these *******s^ if tomorrow there was a terrorist attack in paris and three people died. The same *******s would be up in arms and coming up with all creative ways to shut it down.

Look at how stupid this ******* and his ******* post is. People point to those acts because many parts of ISLAM ARE INCOMPATIBLE with the West, and it erodes the native culture, specifically within the male population. You stupid single digit iq sheep.

[terrorgunt]

Look at how stupid this ******* and his ******* post is. People point to those acts because many parts of ISLAM ARE INCOMPATIBLE with the West, and it erodes the native culture, specifically within the male population. You stupid single digit iq sheep.

Islam, as a whole, is completely incompatible with Western culture. Leave them in the sand raping goats.

[ceizer1985]

Look at how stupid this ******* and his ******* post is. People point to those acts because many parts of ISLAM ARE INCOMPATIBLE with the West, and it erodes the native culture, specifically within the male population. You stupid single digit iq sheep.

sdfu with your native bull****. you're a cuck irl we all know.

[ceizer1985]

Islam, as a whole, is completely incompatible with Western culture. Leave them in the sand raping goats.

u sure got triggered quick son. too bad covid ain't doing it for you.

*******.

[terrorgunt]

sdfu with your native bull****. you're a cuck irl we all know.

"native bullchit"

Got a millennial here guys.....

No clue why this Country was established.

Fukkin idiot.

[terrorgunt]

u sure got triggered quick son. too bad covid ain't doing it for you.

*******.

Look at your past 3 posts. Who's triggered? Millennial trash.

[ceizer1985]

Look at your past 3 posts. Who's triggered? Millennial trash.

herp derp ma rights! shut up you cornbread.

[terrorgunt]

herp derp ma rights! shut up you cornbread.

lmao at making fun of rights. Mooslim detected.

[ceizer1985]

lmao at making fun of rights. Mooslim detected.

lmao at skipping over 3000 deaths a day. head in the sand clown detected.

[ghostfacedup]

lmao at skipping over 3000 deaths a day. head in the sand clown detected.

stop being so emotional, sheesh. Embrace your femininity and estrogen. Eventually you'll transition with hormones and you'll be fine.

[5x10]

There's very good longitudinal evidence that lockdowns significantly mitigate spread, reduce hospitalisations and subsequent deaths.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32414780/

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...785-4/fulltext

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32534627/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3616969

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...89537020302017

The countries that best mitigated the pandemic and had lower death rates also tended to have lesser economic damage/GDP loss:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy

This is why you stay in school.

nice, a comparison of models

By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted in our study period.

We all know how accurate models are


Meanwhile, studies show no lockdown impact on mortality #s

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...04339/full#SM6

Also
One of many studies showing no correlation between mortality and lockdowns

Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and wide-spread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/e...X/fulltext#%20

[LizzieTish]

https://twitter.com/timcast/status/1...452128768?s=11

[Reliance012]

8,500 deaths in the last 3 days.

Just a cold....

[ghostfacedup]

8,500 deaths in the last 3 days.

Just a cold....

We don't know if those are all because of Covid lmao. CDC has already admitted as much.

[ceizer1985]

We don't know if those are all because of Covid lmao. CDC has already admitted as much.

we all know. you and your boyfriend are the only ones acting like retards.

derp derp derp derp

[ghostfacedup]

we all know. you and your boyfriend are the only ones acting like retards.

derp derp derp derp

derp derp

https://www.bitchute.com/video/y0L4wVmmGDmj/

https://www.bitchute.com/video/M0sTzoqFBftt/

nothing to see here. Just like Biden winning right? Nothing to see here. Dumbass.

[Dave22reborn]

8,500 deaths in the last 3 days.

Just a cold....

Shut it all down!!!

[isingmodel]

nice, a comparison of models

We all know how accurate models are


Meanwhile, studies show no lockdown impact on mortality #s

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...04339/full#SM6

Also
One of many studies showing no correlation between mortality and lockdowns

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/e...X/fulltext#%20

These are retrospective longitudinal studies that look at the disease course after it has already happened to assess time-associated impacts of given measures on spread, hospitalisations, deaths. Statistical models are used in any epidemiological study. The word "models" here does not mean models of future projections like you seem to think they do.

You've posted a couple of ecological, not longtitudinal studies which don't attempt to assess time-associated effects of NPIs, and so cannot possibly determine the effectiveness of them. No epidemiologist would ever use them to determine if a given policy has had an effect in time, because that's not what they're measuring. The first one is done by a bunch of sports scientists (lol) and these problems have been pointed out very extensively if you read some of the responses to it.

You need to learn interpret and understand scientific data and what you're actually reading when you look at an abstract, and not just throw out papers that sound like they fit your political opinion after a 10 second glance.

[frankdtank20]

8,500 deaths in the last 3 days.

Just a cold....

It's worse than a cold. Under 8000. Either way, sounds like we're in December. The interesting part would be knowing what flu and pneumonia deaths look like the last week or two.

[ceizer1985]

derp derp

https://www.bitchute.com/video/y0L4wVmmGDmj/

https://www.bitchute.com/video/M0sTzoqFBftt/

nothing to see here. Just like Biden winning right? Nothing to see here. Dumbass.

did you just link to something called bitchute? hahahah no wonder you're a dumbass.

[5x10]

These are retrospective longitudinal studies that look at the disease course after it has already happened to assess time-associated impacts of given measures on spread, hospitalisations, deaths. Statistical models are used in any epidemiological study. The word "models" here does not mean models of future projections like you seem to think they do.

You've posted a couple of ecological, not longtitudinal studies which don't attempt to assess time-associated effects of NPIs, and so cannot possibly determine the effectiveness of them. No epidemiologist would ever use them to determine if a given policy has had an effect in time, because that's not what they're measuring. The first one is done by a bunch of sports scientists (lol) and these problems have been pointed out very extensively if you read some of the responses to it.

You need to learn interpret and understand scientific data and what you're actually reading when you look at an abstract, and not just throw out papers that sound like they fit your political opinion after a 10 second glance.

great
So Florida should be seeing significant differences in excess deaths, correct? They aren’t doing any lockdowns and masks aren’t required

Let’s see, according to the most recent excess deaths data, Florida appears to be averaging 2.1 deaths per week, per 100k
And cali, which has large portions in lockdowns has
1.4 deaths per week, per 100k


Weird, I’m not seeing any significant decreases in mortality

[isingmodel]

great
So Florida should be seeing significant differences in excess deaths, correct? They aren’t doing any lockdowns and masks aren’t required

Let’s see, according to the most recent excess deaths data, Florida appears to be averaging 2.1 deaths per week, per 100k
And cali, which has large portions in lockdowns has
1.4 deaths per week, per 100k


Weird, I’m not seeing any significant decreases in mortality

That's not how any of this works and not how you do any kind of statistical analysis or comparison. Please stop.