August Jobs Numbers are in and.....

[DrFeeIGood]

I remind you that there is zero Harvey impact in here as the survey was complete before the storm.

Let's look inside.

On the parasite side "health care" continues to gain jobs; 20,000 this month. Again, 90% of them never provide a single second of care to a person; they are flat overhead and you pay for it. This has to stop and in fact reverse but you know why policy won't allow it -- it would instantly screw the employment numbers and cause a recession, so the fact that bridge is out be damned, full speed ahead!

Booze and food flattened; I guess there's a limit to what people can pay to get drunk.

There was trouble in paradise with hours worked too -- it ticked down by 0.1 for all payrolls, and 0.2 for manufacturing. Those are bad.

Looking inside the data tables the expected job losses in teens (4 ticks) occurred; this is normal seasonal behavior. But here's a table you do not want to see:



The only people making progress in employment are those with less than a high school diploma. Everyone else saw their unemployment rates go up or were flat.

This is the reality of our so-called "strong employment" economy folks, and it has been this way since the 2008 recession. I keep calling it out because it's a flat-out disaster; yes, there have been job gains for educated people but the fact is that when people talk about how "wonderful" the jobs report is they are intentionally ignoring these statistics and making claims that simply do not hold up about our economy being "strong."

Oh by the way, if that's not enough average weekly earnings were down, all due to fewer hours worked. Average hourly earnings did tick up -- by three cents.

Strong job market my ass.

[wesleysh21]

It’s the slowest job growth in August in six years, marking Trump’s first summer in office as the slowest in overall job growth in four years, according to historical data provided by the Labor Department.

The number of jobs added during the summer months of June, July and August plummeted under Trump to 555,000, down from 764,000 new jobs in 2016 during Obama’s last summer in office.

Those numbers don't jive with what I posted above. So what are the "real" numbers? And using the same source and same methodology, what were the real numbers in the previous years. I find it unsettling when people assume something is cut and dry with a clear answer, yet when you research it you realize the numbers are all over the place. Basically, leaving the reporting source to make them whatever they want to be to fit the narrative.

[Spoolme]

so this guy is wrong to take credit for Jobs! growth?





Just a couple from the last month. He's literally tweeting about his jobs record a few times a week on average.

Lmao! I'd like to see a Trumper argue against that!

[wesleysh21]

I remind you that there is zero Harvey impact in here as the survey was complete before the storm.

Let's look inside.

On the parasite side "health care" continues to gain jobs; 20,000 this month. Again, 90% of them never provide a single second of care to a person; they are flat overhead and you pay for it. This has to stop and in fact reverse but you know why policy won't allow it -- it would instantly screw the employment numbers and cause a recession, so the fact that bridge is out be damned, full speed ahead!

Booze and food flattened; I guess there's a limit to what people can pay to get drunk.

There was trouble in paradise with hours worked too -- it ticked down by 0.1 for all payrolls, and 0.2 for manufacturing. Those are bad.

Looking inside the data tables the expected job losses in teens (4 ticks) occurred; this is normal seasonal behavior. But here's a table you do not want to see:



The only people making progress in employment are those with less than a high school diploma. Everyone else saw their unemployment rates go up or were flat.

This is the reality of our so-called "strong employment" economy folks, and it has been this way since the 2008 recession. I keep calling it out because it's a flat-out disaster; yes, there have been job gains for educated people but the fact is that when people talk about how "wonderful" the jobs report is they are intentionally ignoring these statistics and making claims that simply do not hold up about our economy being "strong."

Oh by the way, if that's not enough average weekly earnings were down, all due to fewer hours worked. Average hourly earnings did tick up -- by three cents.

Strong job market my ass.

The largest employer in 20 states is Wal-Mart. That's sad, and plays right into what you are saying.

[Austanian]

Is MAWA the new left slogan?

You bit on that line? Might want to take those anti-trump goggles off.

That is one of the most ridiculous metrics I have ever seen...

[trailwarrior]

"slowest job growth in August in six years, marking Trump’s first summer in office as the slowest in overall job growth in four years"

Trump making America WORSE again

Not to mention nearly a million jobs that will be lost if Trump repeals DACA...

Ending 'Dreamers' Program Could Cost Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs
http://fortune.com/2017/08/31/daca-d...s-donald-trump
The United States could lose up to 700,000 jobs and suffer billions of dollars in lost economic output if President Donald Trump ends a program granting work permits to the children of undocumented immigrants, a new report finds...It also estimated that the loss of those workers could cost the country $460.3 billion in economic output over the next decade, with Medicare and Social Security contributions dropping by $24.6 billion.

[DiaMedic]

Many years ago when I just finished college and was working in the city at my first job I still needed a second job on the weekends to make ends meet. A friend got me a job working at a stand in this huge...every sunday flea-market at a large community center. It was a non-stop freak show carnival. The stand sold cassettes, and CDs which were still a newer thing then, there was no vinyl. I am 95% sure most of the "merchandise" we sold was not genuine, and maybe even stolen. To say the least it was an educational experience, the guy that ran this little venture was pretty shady..never learned his last name, I was also paid in cash. I also had never worked in an environment dealing with the public in a cash and barter system. So often you had folks trying to chisel you on every purchase, there were the quick change artists, who would accuse you of short changing them, theft was a real big problem..which led to several confrontations with punks trying to steal. The owner would let it go, not wanting to call the cops. This one big fat lady showed up and bought a number of items, on paper I worked out her total...then added sales tax...she demanded to see our sales tax permit, of course there was none (which I found out just then), I turned around and our manager had disappeared for coffee seconds before. It was a real educational experience for sure, not long after I quit, besides it cut into to my hang over recovery time.

[LincolnKennedy]

i thought this was Obama's economy??

Why is this post being avoided like the plague?


Because its "Obama's economy" only when its convenient.

[|ceman]

Those numbers don't jive with what I posted above. So what are the "real" numbers? And using the same source and same methodology, what were the real numbers in the previous years. I find it unsettling when people assume something is cut and dry with a clear answer, yet when you research it you realize the numbers are all over the place. Basically, leaving the reporting source to make them whatever they want to be to fit the narrative.

looks like all your sources are from last month or earlier in this month.

The august job numbers just came out today so your info is old. Also, July's job numbers were adjusted down. Double whammy.

[|ceman]

i thought this was Obama's economy??

not according to this guy:

so this guy is wrong to take credit for Jobs! growth?





Just a couple from the last month. He's literally tweeting about his jobs record a few times a week on average.

[Dan916]

As long as its below 5%, and not TOO low, fluctuations matter very little.

[|ceman]

As long as its below 5%, and not TOO low, fluctuations matter very little.

That's not the big story. This is:




It’s the slowest job growth in August in six years, marking Trump’s first summer in office as the slowest in overall job growth in four years, according to historical data provided by the Labor Department.





The number of jobs added during the summer months of June, July and August plummeted under Trump to 555,000, down from 764,000 new jobs in 2016 during Obama’s last summer in office.

[cashinout]

not according to this guy:

but you guys have been saying obamas economy for 7 months now, what changed

[|ceman]

but you guys have been saying obamas economy for 7 months now, what changed

I'm judging trump by trump's own words and the words of his supporters.

[Dan916]

That's not the big story. This is:




It’s the slowest job growth in August in six years, marking Trump’s first summer in office as the slowest in overall job growth in four years, according to historical data provided by the Labor Department.





The number of jobs added during the summer months of June, July and August plummeted under Trump to 555,000, down from 764,000 new jobs in 2016 during Obama’s last summer in office.

“Growth was slower in August, but that’s because there were fewer gains in growing industries, not because we’re seeing more losses in shrinking industries,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist at Indeed.com. “We’re actually at a point of unusual stability.”

While the unemployment rate crept up from a 16-year-low, the increase is still within the margin of error.

[The economy really is getting better. Here are two key signs]

Employees also worked a bit less in August, with the average workweek falling .3 percent to 34.4 hours.

Last month marked a slowdown in hiring and another period of tepid wage growth, but overall the economy continues down a healthy path of steady if unspectacular improvement.

Data show the manufacturing, construction, healthcare and mining industries all grew, while employment dipped in government and information technology.

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, said August’s relatively modest progress reflects no sign of serious trouble ahead. The labor market, he said, is tightening, which often makes it harder for employers to fill vacant positions.

-Washington Compost


Looks okay to me

[neuron]

oh, I don't. but trump promised that he was going to turn this around and JOBS! JOBS! JOBS! has been the big chant from him and his supporters.

this is called measuring the guy against his own claims.



since you mention IQ - do you think you have a higher IQ than I do? have you been formally tested?

I too am bookmarking that link. One of us will have fun bumping that in a few months/years once everything washes out.

I have two doctorates and you're a potato. Yes, Im smarter.

[|ceman]

I have two doctorates and you're a potato. Yes, Im smarter.

you mentioned IQ. Care to share?

[gachase21]

you mentioned IQ. Care to share?

Are you seriously trying to challenge or question neuron's IQ or place yourself even close to the same playing field of such?

You don't even need to see a test, you know his posting history, blogs etc.

He is clearly one the most intelligent posters that has ever been on this site.

I get you politically disagreeing with him or wanting to argue, but to question his intelligence quotient, reasoning skills, capacity, etc.... or making a statement with the implied premise that yours may be of the same if not more.... brah????

That in and of itself puts yours into question.

[Ikeman83]

Just checking, but his jobs numbers for the last 2 quarters have been great, and so has his GDP growth.

Suspicion: Leftists are desperately trying to find something substantive to attack Trump on, and this is the closest thing to that we've seen.

[Jasonw1178]

There are less people looking for jobs. The jobs are out there, just not as many people looking for jobs.


There is a SHORTAGE of skilled workers right now. Yeah, the low end is crying still but we only need so many burger flippers and shelf stockers. The fact is they could do better if they just applied at a better job.

I'm an automotive tech for a dealership. We will just about hire anyone I swear. They are letting these guys get away with slacking and messing up all of the time, buying them tools, sending them to school. People who should be fired aren't being fired. The pay is pretty nice too for what it is. Easily over $15/hr with a lot of room to grow. On the mechanical end, they will hire about anyone who is willing to do the work. They're faking it, but not making it, but not getting fired. The incompetence I'm dealing with on a daily basis is a bit unbearable.

[Maestro]

Waiting for OP to explain why he believes the US President solely & directly controls month-to-month employment changes in the country...

for the same reason republicans thought obama directly controlled month to month employment changes in the country.

[|ceman]

Are you seriously trying to challenge or question neuron's IQ or place yourself even close to the same playing field of such?

You don't even need to see a test, you know his posting history, blogs etc.

He is clearly one the most intelligent posters that has ever been on this site.

I get you politically disagreeing with him or wanting to argue, but to question his intelligence quotient, reasoning skills, capacity, etc.... or making a statement with the implied premise that yours may be of the same if not more.... brah????

That in and of itself puts yours into question.

He's a smart guy, no doubt. But if he wants to claim that I'm a peanut level IQ, not only is it an ad homenim attack, but I'll call that hand. Unless he can't or won't share his IQ scores from an accredited testing body.

[wesleysh21]

looks like all your sources are from last month or earlier in this month.

The august job numbers just came out today so your info is old. Also, July's job numbers were adjusted down. Double whammy.

Do you have a source for the downgrades?

[gachase21]

Re jobs and GDP reports.

1. The jobs report this time of the year has a history of being wavering a little and unreliable as a true indicator to the nature of the current economy or labor market itself.

2. I would take the next few reports with caution- Harvey will have some impact for sure.

Our normal inflationary reports don't count energy and food as they can skew what would be considered normal inflation from spikes, The spikes caused by the ripple affects from Harvey on consumer goods construction supplies , materials etc. coupled with the increased cost of those supplies due to energy is going to skew our inflationary and GDP reports for the next several quarters.

As well as job and wage reports.....

You will likely see a somewhat falsely(but actually true nature) inflated GDP from this( non adjusted for inflation as inflation won't match reality inflation)

Now given Houston is only a couple percent of the total GDP and labor market the ripple effects regardless will be seen.


Fwiw- we will need immigrants to meet construction labor demand :-)


We don't have enough workers(willing) for jobs available and thats not even counting for the fact of possible increase size of military(jobs and supporting non government jobs related to increase) and potentially building a wall(labor, material labor, transportation of materials, etc etc)

Now all this is uncertain even without Harvey as we still await the biggest potential job creator we are uncertain of(if passed or not) at this point(corporate tax cut)- Wall Street is already partially valued that will happen....

A few diff opinions

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...g-lifts-growth

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/28/deva...on-higher.html

http://www.investors.com/politics/ed...ule-disasters/

[|ceman]

Do you have a source for the downgrades?

the bureau of labor statistics, the article linked in the op, and here's another: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/01/nonf...gust-2017.html

[sawoobley]

oh, I don't. but trump promised that he was going to turn this around and JOBS! JOBS! JOBS! has been the big chant from him and his supporters.

this is called measuring the guy against his own claims.

Just because he's is a potato on this issue for taking credit for job growth and the economy it doesn't mean you have to go potato also.

We can talk about how presidents do things to help or hurt the economy but they cannot take credit or blame for the entire thing.

[wesleysh21]

the bureau of labor statistics, the article linked in the op, and here's another: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/01/nonf...gust-2017.html

Thanks for the link, but that's not an actual source of info. What I'm looking for is raw data so I can compare it to what is being reported...both now and historically. YOU don't need to provide it if you don't feel like taking the time. Its just a request for my curiousity. Even giving me search terms or particular agencies to go to would be acceptable. Like I said before, I find it unsettling that job data stats vary so much between news agencies, and then as you said get "revised" after the fact. Sounds like something we shouldn't put much stock in.

[SillieBazzillie]

Thanks for the link, but that's not an actual source of info. What I'm looking for is raw data so I can compare it to what is being reported...both now and historically. YOU don't need to provide it if you don't feel like taking the time. Its just a request for my curiousity. Even giving me search terms or particular agencies to go to would be acceptable. Like I said before, I find it unsettling that job data stats vary so much between news agencies, and then as you said get "revised" after the fact. Sounds like something we shouldn't put much stock in.

Jobs numbers get revised for atuals a few months after the fact all the time.

[PSToolman]

There are less people looking for jobs. The jobs are out there, just not as many people looking for jobs.


There is a SHORTAGE of skilled workers right now. Yeah, the low end is crying still but we only need so many burger flippers and shelf stockers. The fact is they could do better if they just applied at a better job.

I'm an automotive tech for a dealership. We will just about hire anyone I swear. They are letting these guys get away with slacking and messing up all of the time, buying them tools, sending them to school. People who should be fired aren't being fired. The pay is pretty nice too for what it is. Easily over $15/hr with a lot of room to grow. On the mechanical end, they will hire about anyone who is willing to do the work. They're faking it, but not making it, but not getting fired. The incompetence I'm dealing with on a daily basis is a bit unbearable.

Imagine how customers feel. I see this everywhere. The people I transact with every day are mostly unable to perform their duties properly, unwilling to put forth more than the minimum effort to perform them, or are completely disengaged. It's so pervasive that I have to think it's how businesses want to run. They put up with poor performance because it cuts payroll, and apparently it's enough to compensate for business lost due to incompetence.

[PSToolman]

Thanks for the link, but that's not an actual source of info. What I'm looking for is raw data so I can compare it to what is being reported...both now and historically. YOU don't need to provide it if you don't feel like taking the time. Its just a request for my curiousity. Even giving me search terms or particular agencies to go to would be acceptable. Like I said before, I find it unsettling that job data stats vary so much between news agencies, and then as you said get "revised" after the fact. Sounds like something we shouldn't put much stock in.

The two most common sources I see are the Bureau of Labor Statistics and ADP. Almost all news reports are referencing these. Any discrepancies between news sources is a matter of how they are looking at the official stats.

Revisions are necessary, because "the revised estimate includes additional information that was not available at the time of the initial release—information that makes the revised estimate more accurate."

https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-...bs-numbers.htm