**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Destor]

lol what is there to say when your just holding heavy bags

Loss porn is just as relevant as gains porn

Also sharing mistakes, lessons learned, etc in the moment so people can learn from them and dispel the notion that people are just winning 24/7.

[kusok]

How many shares do you have

Yes

[GeneralSerpant]

Yes

I heard 100 is the magic #

[kusok]

I heard 100 is the magic #

If Elias has 100 shares of pltr, I will lol hard. He best have at least 1000 in order to make any sense.

[stockbruh]

If Elias has 100 shares of pltr, I will lol hard. He best have at least 1000 in order to make any sense.

Exactly, bro has been shilling PLTR for the past 2 years, I had 987 with cost basis 14$, but majority of them got called away from covered calls when it ran up in January after the titan contract. Now I’m sitting on 600 with cost basis 24$

[NestBrah]

Anyone else exhausted waiting for a correction?

Not bought a single stock since since start of the year and just completely burned out. I know that as soon as I buy the market is going to crash.

[kusok]

Anyone else exhausted waiting for a correction?

Not bought a single stock since since start of the year and just completely burned out. I know that as soon as I buy the market is going to crash.

You’re making a couple of classic investing mistakes, but I guess good luck with your waiting and 5% returns on your money market..

After you eat, do you go and sit on the toilet? Because you know, at some point, you’re gonna have to take a ****, so maybe just sit on the toilet all day?

[NestBrah]

You’re making a couple of classic investing mistakes, but I guess good luck with your waiting and 5% returns on your money market..

After you eat, do you go and sit on the toilet? Because you know, at some point, you’re gonna have to take a ****, so maybe just sit on the toilet all day?

Sure, but remember there have been periods of 5 + years where the S&P 500 was negative. No one knew that was coming when it did. Times are undoubtedly a bit more uncertain than normal right now.

Are you suggesting a time like this could never come again?

[Destor]

The key is to just not blow your load in one shot, you’ll never catch the absolute bottom and you’ll never catch the absolute top — and you risk missing out if you try to do those things.

Buy in chunks. If you have $100k to put in, throw $10k at it today. If the market drops, add another $10k. If it drops again, add another $15k, if it drops again add another $20k. Before you know it your average is down somewhere near the recent bottom.

Then when the market rips you sell in chunks in the opposite pattern.

[usersignup2]

Primary lessons, in descending order...: 1) Never go with 2 months or less expiration dates in options. 2) Commit to a limited threshold (10% or less of portfolio as example)... viewing options as a way to risk a reasonably acceptable portfolio percentage for a similar level of gain (not triple or nothing). 3) ACCEPT PHARKING LOSSES AND/OR PURSUE STOP LOSSES. 4) Commit with a planned strategy, never allowing random "analysts" or people sounding intellectual on the internet influence your strategies... a bet is a bet... accept it with stop losses or plan for the potential loss of the entire gamble. 5) If you plan to go with options, you should buy your call/put after what seems like a substantial movement in the opposite direction over a significant time frame (IE maybe time buying the calls when you ACTUALLY THINK "damn that's cheap now wtf".... or buying puts when you ACTUALLY THINK "damn that's crazy expensive now wtf").

All in all I had a significant spell of depression, attitude change, anger, resentment, defeatism, insomnia, etc. over the last 3 months. No this was not worth it. I am very thankful for the outcome.

appreciate the honest and detailed response. IMO most important thing about trading/investing is reflecting and analyzing previous thought patterns so that you become better moving forward. You make excellent points about commitment and conviction. I feel you on all the emotions - I've been there.

since you've spent all this time learning options you might consider doing covered calls so your knowledge doesn't go to waste. gl brah.

[NestBrah]

The key is to just not blow your load in one shot, you’ll never catch the absolute bottom and you’ll never catch the absolute top — and you risk missing out if you try to do those things.

Buy in chunks. If you have $100k to put in, throw $10k at it today. If the market drops, add another $10k. If it drops again, add another $15k, if it drops again add another $20k. Before you know it your average is down somewhere near the recent bottom.

Then when the market rips you sell in chunks in the opposite pattern.

Yeah you're right. I've just been too much of a pussy.

Are you selling in chunks as it rips?

[usersignup2]

Anyone else exhausted waiting for a correction?

Not bought a single stock since since start of the year and just completely burned out. I know that as soon as I buy the market is going to crash.

no. overall I'm bullish. sitting on about 5% cash right now. have a short list of how to deploy when the time comes.

my question is do you have a specific plan if/when there is a correction? what percentage of your cash are you going to invest? into what investment? for what timeframe.

[Destor]

Yeah you're right. I've just been too much of a pussy.

Are you selling in chunks as it rips?

Yeah I’ve cleared out like $160k so far this year in Oil & Gas stonks that are basically at all time highs, selling in $10k chunks for the most part

[Abzu]

ABNB
UBER
INTC
INTU
ALB
LULU
CBRL
ASO
UAA
LYFT
BIG
WKDY
DDD
BMY
DVN
VICI
WBA
UVV

appreciate the honest and detailed response. IMO most important thing about trading/investing is reflecting and analyzing previous thought patterns so that you become better moving forward. You make excellent points about commitment and conviction. I feel you on all the emotions - I've been there.

since you've spent all this time learning options you might consider doing covered calls so your knowledge doesn't go to waste. gl brah.

I saw you say not to focus too much on the macro lest you get wrecked, I took that to heart after the SPY put play I posted on here, thanks and I see you.

[friesbruh]

selling off before market close. i think its topped out atm.

[GeneralSerpant]

What’s nice about the Nvidia stock split is that you can actually cash out some of it without having to sell so much.

[GeneralSerpant]

selling off before market close. i think its topped out atm.

Looks like the entire market wants in on it, are you sure?

[kusok]

Sure, but remember there have been periods of 5 + years where the S&P 500 was negative. No one knew that was coming when it did. Times are undoubtedly a bit more uncertain than normal right now.

Are you suggesting a time like this could never come again?

But again, it’s like you’re sitting on a toilet all day because you’ll have to sheit at some point. People are going about their day making money while you sit on a toilet.

Basic rule is to always stay invested.

If you’re super bearish, you can have 30% cash, even 50% but only for short period of time since you’re losing that money to inflation. Normally you want 20% cash so you can buy dips with half of it, and 10% always cash for emergencies and that silly 5% interest.

Classic Wall Street saying: the bull climbs the wall of worry.
Self explanatory.

Negative news you hear is by design. Not only does it generate clicks, but it also scares people out of the market so that the smart money can buy cheaper and you can buy on top when they tell you that everything is great now and it’s safe to get in!

If your fear is getting in on top and market drops 50% it’s actually ok, just hold, it’ll come back and go higher, and you can average down, and you can’t time these things anyway. No one can.

If you see sp500 at all time high, it doesn’t mean that all stocks are overvalued. As an example meta is currently still undervalued by 12% according to discounted cash flow model. So there are always deals available. Tesla, Amazon, bitcoin, all grossly undervalued today. Zim, pltr, sol, Google, enph etc. all should go up a lot.

You can also get some insurance in case the market goes down by selling cash secure puts instead of just buying stocks, you are making money and you don’t have to buy anything at current high price.

[GeneralSerpant]

Yeah you're right. I've just been too much of a pussy.

Are you selling in chunks as it rips?

It comes down to either knowing the market, knowing the company, or understanding business financials. Each of those just on their own is able to make someone filthy rich.

[NestBrah]

But again, it’s like you’re sitting on a toilet all day because you’ll have to sheit at some point. People are going about their day making money while you sit on a toilet.

Basic rule is to always stay invested.

If you’re super bearish, you can have 30% cash, even 50% but only for short period of time since you’re losing that money to inflation. Normally you want 20% cash so you can buy dips with half of it, and 10% always cash for emergencies and that silly 5% interest.

Classic Wall Street saying: the bull climbs the wall of worry.
Self explanatory.

Negative news you hear is by design. Not only does it generate clicks, but it also scares people out of the market so that the smart money can buy cheaper and you can buy on top when they tell you that everything is great now and it’s safe to get in!

If your fear is getting in on top and market drops 50% it’s actually ok, just hold, it’ll come back and go higher, and you can average down, and you can’t time these things anyway. No one can.

If you see sp500 at all time high, it doesn’t mean that all stocks are overvalued. As an example meta is currently still undervalued by 12% according to discounted cash flow model. So there are always deals available. Tesla, Amazon, bitcoin, all grossly undervalued today. Zim, pltr, sol, Google, enph etc. all should go up a lot.

You can also get some insurance in case the market goes down by selling cash secure puts instead of just buying stocks, you are making money and you don’t have to buy anything at current high price.

Okay, so let's say I have around 200k to invest, how would you go about it?

Lump sum 100k then 10k per month for the rest of the year? Even with so much instability in the world right now and banks paying 5%?

[RobParks2M]

ABNB
UBER
INTC
INTU
ALB
LULU
CBRL
ASO
UAA
LYFT
BIG
WKDY
DDD
BMY
DVN
VICI
WBA
UVV



I saw you say not to focus too much on the macro lest you get wrecked, I took that to heart after the SPY put play I posted on here, thanks and I see you.

Nice list. I was actually looking at under armor the other day I hadn’t realized how far it had dropped lately.

Take WBA off your list though they are legitimately trash. Primary care is getting wrecked and they overpaid big time post Covid for their acquisition. To fund their missteps and mistakes they are selling their cash cow Cencora aka AmerisourceBergen. They used to own like 20%+ of their drug supplier but they’ve sold down to 12%. Kinda like NYCB selling good loans with solid rates to help baghold their bad loans with proper cash ratios.

As if that isn’t bad enough they are trying to dump their boots UK division for the 2nd time in 4 years so the smell of desperation is in the air and they’ll never get a decent offer.

Last they are still paying out top of the market rates to their pharmacists because they fired a bunch 2019 and blundered so hard with staffing during Covid. Plenty of them are still on their 2 year $50-75,000 bonus contracts even though Walgreens market share is down, competitors are better positioned, and no one wants to buy goods in the store that are marked up 50% higher than already high grocery store prices. I’d still short down to $10 minimum.

[kusok]

Okay, so let's say I have around 200k to invest, how would you go about it?

Lump sum 100k then 10k per month for the rest of the year? Even with so much instability in the world right now and banks paying 5%?

It all depends on whether you need weekly cash flow, whether you know how to sell options, what is your personal risk tolerance, how active do you want to be in your investments, everyone’s different, if you just blindly put 50% of your money in S&P 500 that’s almost impossible to beat, especially if you will be selling covered calls on that, that strategy right there outperforms 95% of all professional investors, and you don’t have to do a damn thing, you don’t even have to look at your portfolio. You don’t even need to sell anything, when interest rates drop just borrow at 3% or 4% against your portfolio if you wanna buy something for yourself. That way, you don’t pay any tax either, that’s how the rich people do it,

If you are a bit more adventurous and want to pick your own stocks, it will all depend on your area of competence, invest in things you understand, use in your daily life, and have high conviction in,

Personally, I’d sell cash secure put on Tesla and get a few more shares to get it up to $20,000 total allocation, 10% of my portfolio, and keep another 10% in cash, another 10% Sp500 (spy) another 10% in cash to buy the dips, I’d grab some bitcoin and Solana, clean spark and microstrategy, anytime there is any kind of dip on Amazon or Microsoft or Google or Nvidia, those dips have to be bought,

And sell the rips, anytime something hits all-time high sell 10%, anytime you double your money sell 10%, anytime you 3x your money take your initial investment off the table.

But again, remember that the best performing portfolios belong to dead people, because they never sold, they just have a S&P 500 and it just sits there lol. It’s part of the reason why people make so much money in real estate, because you cannot sell real estate quickly, so it’s impossible for the smart money to scare people out of the market. If you own a house, you’re forced to just hold it for many years and it’s guaranteed to go up in price, same with stocks, it’s because the money supply is expanding, which makes everything go up in price, including stocks, there is absolutely nothing any war or any news or any person or group of people can do to change that. Market only goes up in long term.

TLDR cliffs:
It depends, buy the dips, sell the rips, stay invested in quality, keep some cash on the side.

[Abzu]

Nice list. I was actually looking at under armor the other day I hadn’t realized how far it had dropped lately.

Take WBA off your list though they are legitimately trash. Primary care is getting wrecked and they overpaid big time post Covid for their acquisition. To fund their missteps and mistakes they are selling their cash cow Cencora aka AmerisourceBergen. They used to own like 20%+ of their drug supplier but they’ve sold down to 12%. Kinda like NYCB selling good loans with solid rates to help baghold their bad loans with proper cash ratios.

As if that isn’t bad enough they are trying to dump their boots UK division for the 2nd time in 4 years so the smell of desperation is in the air and they’ll never get a decent offer.

Last they are still paying out top of the market rates to their pharmacists because they fired a bunch 2019 and blundered so hard with staffing during Covid. Plenty of them are still on their 2 year $50-75,000 bonus contracts even though Walgreens market share is down, competitors are better positioned, and no one wants to buy goods in the store that are marked up 50% higher than already high grocery store prices. I’d still short down to $10 minimum.

I mentioned WBA because it looks like it's going to bounce around ~$15 up to about ~$18.

I wouldn't be interested in starting a long term position until it goes to about ~$12 but I think it could go as low as $7.xx, on the high side I see ~$35, ~$45, ~$60.

It looks like you know a lot about the company but you are not mentioning the good things that are happening, I know it's mostly bad but it's good to balance your range. Seems like you don't think they are going bankrupt and the current book value for WBA is about ~$15. It's p/b is about as low as it has been in the last 15 years and has been about 4x higher.

Okay, so let's say I have around 200k to invest, how would you go about it?

Lump sum 100k then 10k per month for the rest of the year? Even with so much instability in the world right now and banks paying 5%?

You should never let money sit.

You can sell puts and get returns similar to bonds in 1-3 weeks, choose stocks that you don't mind owning and that currently have high volatility.

Start a position in a high div stock that has already been sold off and start selling calls on the bounce, if it doesn't bounce then sell puts at the following support levels but only buy more if it hits your lowest price target, find similar stocks and spread your risk out.

[stockbruh]

But again, it’s like you’re sitting on a toilet all day because you’ll have to sheit at some point. People are going about their day making money while you sit on a toilet.

Basic rule is to always stay invested.

If you’re super bearish, you can have 30% cash, even 50% but only for short period of time since you’re losing that money to inflation. Normally you want 20% cash so you can buy dips with half of it, and 10% always cash for emergencies and that silly 5% interest.

Classic Wall Street saying: the bull climbs the wall of worry.
Self explanatory.

Negative news you hear is by design. Not only does it generate clicks, but it also scares people out of the market so that the smart money can buy cheaper and you can buy on top when they tell you that everything is great now and it’s safe to get in!

If your fear is getting in on top and market drops 50% it’s actually ok, just hold, it’ll come back and go higher, and you can average down, and you can’t time these things anyway. No one can.

If you see sp500 at all time high, it doesn’t mean that all stocks are overvalued. As an example meta is currently still undervalued by 12% according to discounted cash flow model. So there are always deals available. Tesla, Amazon, bitcoin, all grossly undervalued today. Zim, pltr, sol, Google, enph etc. all should go up a lot.

You can also get some insurance in case the market goes down by selling cash secure puts instead of just buying stocks, you are making money and you don’t have to buy anything at current high price.

Kusok dropping gems, repped for solid advice we need more of this

[RobParks2M]

I mentioned WBA because it looks like it's going to bounce around ~$15 up to about ~$18.

I wouldn't be interested in starting a long term position until it goes to about ~$12 but I think it could go as low as $7.xx, on the high side I see ~$35, ~$45, ~$60.

It looks like you know a lot about the company but you are not mentioning the good things that are happening, I know it's mostly bad but it's good to balance your range. Seems like you don't think they are going bankrupt and the current book value for WBA is about ~$15. It's p/b is about as low as it has been in the last 15 years and has been about 4x higher.



You should never let money sit.

You can sell puts and get returns similar to bonds in 1-3 weeks, choose stocks that you don't mind owning and that currently have high volatility.

Start a position in a high div stock that has already been sold off and start selling calls on the bounce, if it doesn't bounce then sell puts at the following support levels but only buy more if it hits your lowest price target, find similar stocks and spread your risk out.

What positives do you see on the horizon for WBA? They’ve gotten costs under better control on their primary care, they’ve got their opioid litigation complete, and they’ve got a lot of retail property they could sell? Their pharmacy benefits unit could be under pressure soon too with legislation that is in the works. I’m sure they will bounce as nothing ever goes straight down, but idk what that looks like I suppose.

As far as bonds I’m doing good buying TLT and I sold some $93C for mid June for around $1. I’m up like 4% on position and when the call expires worthless it’s another 1% so 5% so far(or 5.5% if I get exercised at 93) and I think I’ve held for maybe 2 months at this point not including the dividends. I should sell a CSP too since I’m about ready for another 100.

[Abzu]

What positives do you see on the horizon for WBA? They’ve gotten costs under better control on their primary care, they’ve got their opioid litigation complete, and they’ve got a lot of retail property they could sell? Their pharmacy benefits unit could be under pressure soon too with legislation that is in the works. I’m sure they will bounce as nothing ever goes straight down, but idk what that looks like I suppose.

As far as bonds I’m doing good buying TLT and I sold some $93C for mid June for around $1. I’m up like 4% on position and when the call expires worthless it’s another 1% so 5% so far(or 5.5% if I get exercised at 93) and I think I’ve held for maybe 2 months at this point not including the dividends. I should sell a CSP too since I’m about ready for another 100.

NHS PharmacyFirst, the dividend cut, the TCMP is saving more money than expected and they have exclusive rights to distribute oteseconazole.

I'm not really a bond guy, I can get better returns selling puts and for me, it's just as safe, when I sell I'm usually trying to avoid exercise.

I saw you selling puts on sofi I think and I thought you were doing that to generate cash on your position, not buy more sofi.



I was making 15-25% selling DJT puts for 1 week expiration, I didn't want the stock, bonds can't beat that.



I got ~10% selling puts on UVV last week, those expire 6/21 and it's still better than bonds.

[Abzu]

I want to add that the the dividends from some stocks are safer than U.S. bonds and they usually pay a higher yield lol.

Everyone across the world loves KO and if America somehow collapsed, KO would still exist, shout out to Mr. Buffet lol.

KO looks healthier than the U.S. dollar and it pays 3% BRK gets $750,000,000/year from KO dividends alone lol.



Why Warren Buffett Hates Bonds May 10, 2024
Warren Buffett is no fan of the bond market even with the increase in yields this year. Berkshire Hathaway has a tiny bond allocation in its investment portfolio, which mostly supports its huge insurance business. This contrasts with most insurers, who keep the bulk of their assets in bonds.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/war...bonds-b3eaa07b

[kusok]

^^^ every time I go to a pharmacy like CVS or Walgreens, I come back home and buy more Amazon stock, it’s a freaking disaster, I have to remind myself to never go there again, I have no idea how retail still exists.

[GeneralSerpant]

I want to add that the the dividends from some stocks are safer than U.S. bonds and they usually pay a higher yield lol.

Well the dividends should be on par with the growth of other businesses, not the growth of cash paying bonds. Verizon pays 7% on top of principal appreciation. And even though that appreciation isn't anything special, you're still getting more to offer than any high-yields at the end of the day.

[2020Wellness]

The key is to just not blow your load in one shot, you’ll never catch the absolute bottom and you’ll never catch the absolute top — and you risk missing out if you try to do those things.

Buy in chunks. If you have $100k to put in, throw $10k at it today. If the market drops, add another $10k. If it drops again, add another $15k, if it drops again add another $20k. Before you know it your average is down somewhere near the recent bottom.

Then when the market rips you sell in chunks in the opposite pattern.

If you research, it’s statistically more profitable to lump sum invest in the long run.