**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -VIII-

[Bavaria]

ive been out a while need a stock in these sectors:
financial
services
transportation
utilities
capital goods

any good ones brah.. come at me

Utilities: EXC Exelon Corporation and TA TransAlta. T

Transalta is a gamble though and a very long term hold. stay safe.

[thetrebel]

Anyone here a member of Robinhood? I know we've talked about them a lot ITT but is anyone actually a member? I signed up on their "waiting list" about 6 months ago and today I got an e-mail from them asking me to sign-up. The whole thing seems a bit spamish to me though.



I'm not sure if I want to give them my SS number...






How much money is missing?

You need an iPad to trade with them Srs

Poverty af

[lolbro]

I'm watching a program about property houses in London, ppl showing others around to buy houses. A single bed flat, in the districts of London going for 350,000 pounds 525k USD.

This is sustainable

When UK downturn starts pepper thy angus.

When that happens bonuses (Especially Traders and Bankers) go down hard, layoffs, management changes, people can't afford the high rents and mortgage repayments - foreclosure everywhere. Price goes down - Property Developers cry Uncle etc.

All the domestic UHNW people either sell (if they were from UK since they can't afford to pay anymore) and downsize or hold and sell other foreign properties. The Foreign ones don't care, they come and buy since it's for security anyways. Only problem - are there any left apart from China? I highly doubt the Russians will buy up (since most already have a place). And if the UKIP wins then forget that they probs won't even be allowed into the country in the first place.

Saudi's already bought up, Russia's already there, USA I dunno about the habits of the UHNW there so it's essentially China that could possibly buy in a downturn. And The Bishops Avenue from some searching has a lot of rotting mansions so they'd have to factor rebuilding the damn thing and waiting a few years before they can even move in - if the Chinese crackdown gets more tough they might not have the time and just want a place ASAP so high-end luxury properties might not be their preference in that case (rather a place ready to move in, pay cash and leggo).

This pushes down the average price for properties hard!

[GabrielNovar]

The one time I don't play SBUX earnings it rocks....go freakin figure.

[bee su]

You need an iPad to trade with them Srs

Poverty af

glad to have you back off your ban, please pm all the details.


thanks for reading and replying.

[HEAT-34]

king of Saudi Arabia dead (srs)

rip my tga

How would TGA be impacted?

[bee su]

holy boat load array

[TexasJaTT]

Bought another 25% of my oil etf. My stock is up right now so im gonna wait on that. Now 50% in my etf and 25% in stock.

Need opinions guys. Stock is FSU sector is Uranium mining. Mh friend put me on this stock. She said alot of people have been buying this....one of her clients put his down payment on this. They r exploration and found their mine has much more reserves than they thought and could be bought by a big guy.

Every time someone gives me a tip and I dont do anything...I miss out. Recently...Probe Mines which is gold explorer in Ontario was on a steady climb since my source was telling me about it and it was bought last week buy a big guy.

Any of u Canada brah's look into this. I wanna fuggin jewgif.jpg

[cannadian]

How would TGA be impacted?

It wont be. Egypt might get a little less money from Saudi in the March summit but the other Gulf states will make up for it.

Ultimately the death of the King does not change Saudi's geopolitical interests. It still hates Iran. It still hates the Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam. And it still desperately wants to see the success of the Sisi administration (as does Israel, the US, and the EU despite what they might tell you otherwise).

[thetrebel]

someone hold me back from buying...

[thetrebel]

alll aboarrdddddd


chochooooooo

next stop all time highs

[Barn01]

someone hold me back from buying...

Read my post above that explains the lending deal they signed. Then you'll think twice ... mind you I think you just want to flip it so on that note ... heads or tails?

Nice sig just add the date to it that it was updated and WB

[thetrebel]

Read my post above that explains the lending deal they signed. Then you'll think twice ... mind you I think you just want to flip it so on that note ... heads or tails?

Nice sig just add the date to it that it was updated and WB

hmmmm seems like a pretty ****ty deal lol

Also they have lost a lot of their retail clients (like me ), also oanda and forex.com have been aggressive in their "we got you back bro ad campaign". Since they reset their clients balance that went in the negative.

I just wanted to buy it because it was cheap , but its cheap for a reason


Although I have not doubt short term traders are loading up for a bounce

[JacqueAttack]

When putting together a DCF how do you project capex when you have no clue what their investing activities will be in the near future? Do you take a weighted average of their historicals or go about it another way?

[thetrebel]

When putting together a DCF how do you project capex when you have no clue what their investing activities will be in the near future? Do you take a weighted average of their historicals or go about it another way?

buy the dip

[KevVandersloot]

someone hold me back from buying...

Oh noes!

[Venom08]

I sold all of my NEM and SLV calls at the open today to lock in 400% and 250% profits, respectively. I am weary of staying long options with the dollar about to go on an insane rally, but I'm still long ETFs and shares of SLV, nugt and NEM.

Looks like I sold at the opportune moment. I'm thinking maybe next Tuesday/Wednesday is when it'll be a good time to reenter calls.

[TexasJaTT]

Bought another 25% of my oil etf. My stock is up right now so im gonna wait on that. Now 50% in my etf and 25% in stock.

Need opinions guys. Stock is FSU sector is Uranium mining. Mh friend put me on this stock. She said alot of people have been buying this....one of her clients put his down payment on this. They r exploration and found their mine has much more reserves than they thought and could be bought by a big guy.

Every time someone gives me a tip and I dont do anything...I miss out. Recently...Probe Mines which is gold explorer in Ontario was on a steady climb since my source was telling me about it and it was bought last week buy a big guy.

Any of u Canada brah's look into this. I wanna fuggin jewgif.jpg

Sorry its FCU

[jackedguy87]

Bought another 25% of my oil etf. My stock is up right now so im gonna wait on that. Now 50% in my etf and 25% in stock.

Need opinions guys. Stock is FSU sector is Uranium mining. Mh friend put me on this stock. She said alot of people have been buying this....one of her clients put his down payment on this. They r exploration and found their mine has much more reserves than they thought and could be bought by a big guy.

Every time someone gives me a tip and I dont do anything...I miss out. Recently...Probe Mines which is gold explorer in Ontario was on a steady climb since my source was telling me about it and it was bought last week buy a big guy.

Any of u Canada brah's look into this. I wanna fuggin jewgif.jpg

youre friend is very smart...uranium has great fundamentals and the spot price rose last year. spot price s well below price of production, so either the price rises substantially or the lights go out.

FCU is a great play, they have a large resource in a prime location and are very undervalued they either go into production or get bought out. I also like denison mines. basically any explorer/miner with a good balance sheet, nice large economic resource, and lots of growth ahead.

[BossNguyen]

does anyone here actually make consistence gains?
My problem is i lose money for every 2 days of gains. 2:1 gain lose days

[jackedguy87]

Just watch 1.13 break on the EUR/USD and you'll see a quick flush to make them get on par. After that it's hello collapse of the Euro. DXY $120 by April? Probably.

no1 is bearish on the dollar, that tells you a top is near market psychology cant get anymore bullish

[jackedguy87]

does anyone here actually make consistence gains?
My problem is i lose money for every 2 days of gains. 2:1 gain lose days

follow the jim rogers approach, when you make money sit and wait for times when money is just lying on the street waiting to get picked up. he says he'll only make a couple trades a year, can't lose type of trades that may inititally work against him.

[jackedguy87]

Jackedguy what is your opinion on residential real estate in the next few years?

I dont see a 2009 style crash. for a crash to happen there needs to be sellers. The sellers in 2009 came from people who did not /have jobs/money just packed up and walked away from their house. They got approved to buy the house from shoddy mortgage application process. they had nothing to lose.

But anyone who has bought a house in the past 5 years had to prove income/credit/downpayment etc. These people will do everything they can to not go into foreclosure.

housing has gotten much weaker in the past 12 months just check the data and that is with FALLING MORTGAGE RATES THE 10 AND 30 YEAR T BILLS ARE AT RECORD LOWS. the FHA has now introduced 3% down loans bc ppl are still too poor to buy. when you put so little down, youre much more likely to default when the market turns. if the fed raises rates, housing will decline at a much faster pace.

when housing had a run in 2012/2013, 85% or so of residential real estate was bought by cash buyers (speculators) hedge funds etc, it wasnt real home buyers, it was all due to qe3. home ownership rates in america have been steadily declining and are at 20 year lows. this is the trend. these record low bond yields will have to rise eventually which means a further drop in house prices.

THAT BEING SAID...if you are planning to buy a home to live in longterm, not speculating for a quick flip, then fine locking in a 30 year mortgage at 3.5% is not a bad idea instead of renting somewhere. its a great way to short the dollar ( warren buffet agrees ) those kinds of mortgages are great for the debtor but not the lender.

[thetrebel]

does anyone here actually make consistence gains?
My problem is i lose money for every 2 days of gains. 2:1 gain lose days

yes

You have to be able to let go of a set up that fails asap

just cut if off and shake it off. I don't mind taking my losses, never bothers me honestly. But the losses you hold on to, are the ones that will ruin you. You will be able to get away with it a few times, I know I did but it will come back to bite you in the ass.

Its like holding a bad hand in poker, just fold and wait your a good one.

Then when you have a good set up, add up and let it run. This is crucial as it well make up for your losers.

Just like in poker when you have pocket aa's you re-raise that coksucka next to you

[White-Belt]

follow the jim rogers approach, when you make money sit and wait for times when money is just lying on the street waiting to get picked up. he says he'll only make a couple trades a year, can't lose type of trades that may inititally work against him.

Try doing that on forex, with leverage, and see how that works for you.

Jim Rodgers is playing a different game to the average joe on these forums, apply his advice to your own situation where is suits.

[Barn01]

19-Jan-2014
Picks of the week

MLK Day these are this weeks picks

OCIR
AET
AXL

And and bonus buy from last week HNT

OCIR +0.0%
AET +3.2%
AXL +1.2%

Mean = +1.5% (+2.3% if you include HNT)
SPY = +2.2%

HNT +4.7% not counted in the mean

So I didn't beat SPY this week but I won't turn my nose up at 1.5%

I'll adjust for a true YTD on SPY in my sig. At the present time I was just going by a direct time in market comparison but I can see that causing confusion later.

[MetroBrah]

SLM

in at 9.20

[Stryfe14]

When putting together a DCF how do you project capex when you have no clue what their investing activities will be in the near future? Do you take a weighted average of their historicals or go about it another way?

Try to find a really "normal" year that sticks out in the company's historical financials. Try to find a no-growth year and see what CapEx was like. Use that year's CapEx/EBITDA to forecast future CapEx, and add additional CapEx if you're growing the company in your model. If your rev & EBITDA estimates are flat then reduce CapEx in proportion to sales in your estimates.

[xRedStaRx]

When putting together a DCF how do you project capex when you have no clue what their investing activities will be in the near future? Do you take a weighted average of their historicals or go about it another way?

Why would you invest in a company you have no clue what their future investing activities will be like?

If it's at least a middle cap company, and there are no future intents of expansion projects in their statements, then project capex from historicals, and compare the cash flow and income statement margins to peers. The FCFF is a function of NOPLAT, g, and ROIC. Project the middle line, growth assumptions going forward, and the historical ROIC, for high growth and stable periods. That's the quick dirty method.

[arem20]

Hope everyone is well.

Been struggling with a fairly severe case of alcoholism for about the past 5 or so years and finally decided to tackle it. Went in for a blood check and the doctor pretty much told me I won't make it to 40 with how I was living... Or rather how I was dying. To put a perspective on it, I was drinking a fifth (0.75 liters) and several beers per night, so about 15-20 drinks. This included week days. Drinking a lot isn't cool after you're over the age of 17, but regardless, the volume and it's effect became my reality.

It's an exhaustive process to be honest and taking a lot of my resources (time and energy, certainly not money, I've been saving a ton by not drinking). Luckily found one of those "red pill" girls who helps kick me out of bed at 5 am to go train and can cook at a Michelin level on top of being a nationally competitive oly lifter.

But, short write up I texted my buddy when he had a question about halliburton earlier today:

Oil is tricky. A big question is how much of the "cost of a barrel of oil" is sunk costs, maintenance, extraction costs, transportation, refining, etc.

I can't put an exact dollar amount on it, but the sunk costs are huge. So for some extractors, even if their overall "cost" is higher than what they get for it, they may still keep pumping because the variable costs are smaller than their revenue. It's the old Econ 101 dilemma of when do you stay in operation when you're losing money and when do you shut down (which is when variable costs exceed revenues).

With oil we can probably say that things outside of pure supply and demand are a factor in prices. However, for oil prices to remain low, supply needs to either remain high, or demand needs to crater.

Developing countries are by default inefficient energy users and have large population growth rates. Fundamentally, oil isn't going anywhere for quite awhile. Even if everyone in the us is using teslas, everyone in ****ing ****lia is going to be using ratchet 25 year old cars and motorcycles and power generators.

So for supply to remain high, production needs to remain high. Halliburton is largely an oil services company. As long as people keep pumping, Halliburton will keep working.

Also the patents, technology, contracts, etc. that Halliburton still has are valuable. I think the market is being over reactive and myopic on Halliburton.

Just checked LMT today and wanted to vomit. Got it at around 80ish or so a couple years back. I flipped it at about 120 for apple which I flipped again. Even though I made money off of allocating the cash elsewhere. I should have kept it there >< Between the dividends I would have received and stock price appreciation it would have been nice.

I've been pretty disconnected from the markets with the exception of news and when it directly relates to economics. Hoping to get back into it. Been reviewing my past investment history and I think my best bets have been on beaten down blue chips (like apple and LMT). Here's my theory. Companies, the major ones, have **** in the pipelines that often take years to bring to market. The investment world is so focused on what have you done for me lately, new product releases, etc.

With the exception of technological disruption or companies becoming out of touch with the consumer, i think most of these companies bounce back well eventually.

Btw started getting into Olympic lifting. It's getting scary how quickly I'm advancing and how much weight I'm lifting on some of the related lifts like power snatches and front squats. I've been pretty damn good at rugby and could have been ok at power lifting, but this is a whole new ball game.