**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -IV-

[pachovia]

Don't think of profits as "house money". This is a sure way to go broke. Playing with "house money" makes you yield to riskier temptations that you normally wouldn't with "your money".

So true, after a big win I take my winnings out in cash count it and put it my safe or spend some. It makes it much more real when you count the money and hold it instead of looking at numbers on a screen.

[NumberOneStunna]

Sorry guys would have loved to post this at the time of entry, which was about 15 minutes ago, but got an important phone call and they wouldn't stop talking. I'm in on the AAPL monthly 665s at a cost of .95. If Google surprises, we can have a major run tomorrow.

[MrSilverback]

I don't see how can option volume predict movement on the stock. Call put parity locks the prices of calls, puts, and the underlying stock into an arbitrage free relationship. Any drastic movement in one of the three will imply that the other two will move in such a manner to reduce arbitrage opportunities. I generally regard jumps in option volume as the result of someone else's hedging operation.

I dunno man. Look at AA. All the analysts were DISMAL. I read report after report that they were going to miss. Then NumberOne pointed out the volume of calls bought in relation to puts. Upside hedge on shorts? Could be. However, I think there were people out there that knew, or looked more deeply into the books/analyticals, and placed their bets accordingly.

[aberry33]

Nice and green all around today. KOG ballin.

[auron990]

Sorry guys would have loved to post this at the time of entry, which was about 15 minutes ago, but got an important phone call and they wouldn't stop talking. I'm in on the AAPL monthly 665s at a cost of .95. If Google surprises, we can have a major run tomorrow.

How do you go about picking which option to play? Why not the 660 for example.

[Tekkendo]

Bot some calls on gold stocks.... Can't help it... They are rockbottom.. Too tempting. Can't resist the lure of deep value. Sucks to be me. I need help.

[MdavisUSF]

Just browsed through a bunch of pages but haven't read to far back on this thread, what are you all thinking about for groupon?

[adambomb]

Just browsed through a bunch of pages but haven't read to far back on this thread, what are you all thinking about for groupon?

Run away! Major issues with their accounting = a nono...

[MdavisUSF]

Figured, just looked like it was starting to rebound.. the word is on top of the obvious accounting issues the business model is not sustainable with all the competition out there.. was just hoping someone had any thoughts good on it.. better not to catch a falling knife i suppose.

[NumberOneStunna]

Dude, why do you even have an actual job? Every trade you make is right on, just trade full time...You're making 10K a day, literally just trading. Fuark..

I work to keep busy, I'm pretty sure I'd go crazy if I just traded. The only problem I face is burn-out, trading and research takes 8 hours, work takes 11-12 hours, so I need to combine some of the trading while I'm working. I'm going to stop trading altogether pretty soon and quit my job as well. I'm looking at becoming a real estate tycoon well I'll start off with one apartment complex and see what kind of free cash I can generate

How do you go about picking which option to play? Why not the 660 for example.

I dunno man, I just saw that the 665 were a whole number so just chose that strike. They dropped 50% in value from the morning so it looked like it could make a nice rebound. I had 30% in the bank but decided to hold, only up 10%. I just wanted to see how google would fare and seems like they beat and announced a div and split. I figure they did this to hide their growth lol. AH went from like 626 to 665 from what I saw. Who knows for tomorrow, but I think some of the money will be returning back to AAPL to get on it's run.

[adambomb]

I work to keep busy, I'm pretty sure I'd go crazy if I just traded. The only problem I face is burn-out, trading and research takes 8 hours, work takes 11-12 hours, so I need to combine some of the trading while I'm working. I'm going to stop trading altogether pretty soon and quit my job as well. I'm looking at becoming a real estate tycoon well I'll start off with one apartment complex and see what kind of free cash I can generate



I dunno man, I just saw that the 665 were a whole number so just chose that strike. They dropped 50% in value from the morning so it looked like it could make a nice rebound. I had 30% in the bank but decided to hold, only up 10%. I just wanted to see how google would fare and seems like they beat and announced a div and split. I figure they did this to hide their growth lol. AH went from like 626 to 665 from what I saw. Who knows for tomorrow, but I think some of the money will be returning back to AAPL to get on it's run.

Care to explain why and how a company benefits from a stock split?

[MrSilverback]

I was wrong again. Google beat. I am the earnings un-oracle LMAO!

Benefits either way though. Nice run up tomorrow.

[WallkillRanger]

can someone explain to me why a stock would trade at a significant premium to the price of an upcoming secondary offering? My buddy is in DHT and is thinking about participating in their offering because he sees it as "easy money", but surely we're both missing something. I just can't explain why he shouldn't take what appears to be a roughly 30% discount.

[ScuderiaF1]

Care to explain why and how a company benefits from a stock split?

It reduces share prices. Companies typical perform a stock split because it gives "smaller" investors an opportunity to invest in their company or buy more shares.

[adambomb]

It reduces share prices. Companies typical perform a stock split because it gives "smaller" investors an opportunity to invest in their company or buy more shares.

So it gives people like me a chance to invest? Ha thanks. I wish AAPL would do this!

[cake123]

So it gives people like me a chance to invest? Ha thanks. I wish AAPL would do this!

Yea the only real benefit is to the investors afaik, inmproves liquidity

[ScuderiaF1]

So it gives people like me a chance to invest? Ha thanks. I wish AAPL would do this!

Google is doing a two-for-one split so investors will still have to pay $300+ to buy a share. Not cheap by any means. But will no doubt bring in a few new investors and encourage existing shareholders to buy additional shares.

[pachovia]

My mean reversion system is giving me a buy on AAPL. Here is the chart, the red boxes and blue arrows are buys and the blue box's and red arrows are sell / short. As tested the from 2008 - 2012 the red boxes have been profitable 7 of 8 trades. I haven't traded this system until this week, it can give up a lot in big trends.

Not sure how to post a pic or make it bigger.

[pachovia]

Bot some calls on gold stocks.... Can't help it... They are rockbottom.. Too tempting. Can't resist the lure of deep value. Sucks to be me. I need help.

which stocks?

[NumberOneStunna]

Yea the only real benefit is to the investors afaik, inmproves liquidity

Improves liquidity but in actuality should make investors impartial. If I was a shareholder of a $600+ stock I would not be in favour of any split. Why would you want the price to be lower so that you get a whole bunch of cheap investors to buy your stock? Do you know what those cheap investors would do when the slightest bit of bad news hits?

Google is doing a two-for-one split so investors will still have to pay $300+ to buy a share. Not cheap by any means. But will no doubt bring in a few new investors and encourage existing shareholders to buy additional shares.

Very shady how they're issuing a new class of shares. If I was a shareholder I'd be pissed off to the maximum. non-voting!!!! Why would anyone pay the same price for non-voting as voting, unless they allow the other share class to trade on it's own.

My mean reversion system is giving me a buy on AAPL. Here is the chart, the red boxes and blue arrows are buys and the blue box's and red arrows are sell / short. As tested the from 2008 - 2012 the red boxes have been profitable 7 of 8 trades.

Not sure how to post a pic or make it bigger.

A little small but I see what you're getting at. I'll do my own charts and post them up later tonight. I haven't checked but I'm pretty sure AAPL is touching it's 10-day and the bottom of the uptrend line. You know what that means!!!! Major rebound coming. I've got some monthly calls that are deep out of the money I'm holding, will likely close out and load up half position Friday morning, other half Monday morning for major earnings run.

[ScuderiaF1]

Very shady how they're issuing a new class of shares. If I was a shareholder I'd be pissed off to the maximum. non-voting!!!! Why would anyone pay the same price for non-voting as voting, unless they allow the other share class to trade on it's own.

I was thinking the same thing...shady indeed.

[drewbagel423]

Improves liquidity but in actuality should make investors impartial. If I was a shareholder of a $600+ stock I would not be in favour of any split. Why would you want the price to be lower so that you get a whole bunch of cheap investors to buy your stock? Do you know what those cheap investors would do when the slightest bit of bad news hits?

Isn't that one of the main reasons why Buffett never split his BRK.A shares? He didn't want the price to be able to be manipulated by smaller investors.

[NumberOneStunna]

I was thinking the same thing...shady indeed.

Essentially they'll have no accountability to that class of shareholders. I see no reason for them to issue this class of shares and would never buy or recommend GOOG. They're hiding the fact that they're growth will not be accelerating as fast as their valuation. Expect their PPS to get slaughtered after institutions run the price to exit.

[ScuderiaF1]

Essentially they'll have no accountability to that class of shareholders. I see no reason for them to issue this class of shares and would never buy or recommend GOOG. They're hiding the fact that they're growth will not be accelerating as fast as their valuation. Expect their PPS to get slaughtered after institutions run the price to exit.

Agreed. I'm getting the impression that Google is ONLY doing this split so that they (the founders) gain more voting power. Why else would they issue non-voting shares? And as you said, I think they're hiding slow growth. I certainly don't believe Google had the investors in mind when they came up with this stock split.

[Tekkendo]

which stocks?

mux, ngd, nem, gg.

[adambomb]

Agreed. I'm getting the impression that Google is ONLY doing this split so that they (the founders) gain more voting power. Why else would they issue non-voting shares? And as you said, I think they're hiding slow growth. I certainly don't believe Google had the investors in mind when they came up with this stock split.

From the Yahoo article - "When we went public, we created a dual-class voting structure," Page said in a letter explaining the moves. "Our goal was to maintain the freedom to focus on the long term by ensuring that the management team, in particular Eric, Sergey and I, retained control over Google's destiny," the letter said.

Sounds like yall are exactly right, they don't want to lose control.

And the new shares will trade on their own - The new shares, to be listed on Nasdaq under a separate ticker, will be available for corporate uses such as equity-based compensation for employees, in which case they would not dilute the share base.

Is that uncommon?

[NumberOneStunna]

From the Yahoo article - "When we went public, we created a dual-class voting structure," Page said in a letter explaining the moves. "Our goal was to maintain the freedom to focus on the long term by ensuring that the management team, in particular Eric, Sergey and I, retained control over Google's destiny," the letter said.

Sounds like yall are exactly right, they don't want to lose control.

And the new shares will trade on their own - The new shares, to be listed on Nasdaq under a separate ticker, will be available for corporate uses such as equity-based compensation for employees, in which case they would not dilute the share base.

Is that uncommon?

This is extremely uncommon. If they don't want to dilute the share base they should go private. No point in selling shares publicly. This is perhaps why GOOG is flat after their report. I sense a major sell-off looming, and it won't be pretty. What they're saying is they'll take your money gladly by issuing these non-voting shares, and they'll use that same money to prevent dilution? Hahaha what the heck are these guys saying lol I've never heard of something this ridiculous.

Edit: I haven't looked into this very deeply, but if this is a split, they're going to be giving one of these shares under the new ticker to existing shareholders. Uh oh, that is not good.

[ClinicallyBored]

A little small but I see what you're getting at. I'll do my own charts and post them up later tonight. I haven't checked but I'm pretty sure AAPL is touching it's 10-day and the bottom of the uptrend line. You know what that means!!!! Major rebound coming. I've got some monthly calls that are deep out of the money I'm holding, will likely close out and load up half position Friday morning, other half Monday morning for major earnings run.

Ya it was def. bouncing off the 10-day couple times. I legged out my spread on Mondays low and sold my long on Tuesday high. Actually made some damn good profit but good lord that was a a bit much for me to stomach. See what happens tomorrow. A too little risky for me right now. The more I stare a AAPL I cant help but to think a parabolic rally waiting to crash.

[cannadian]

This is extremely uncommon. If they don't want to dilute the share base they should go private. No point in selling shares publicly. This is perhaps why GOOG is flat after their report. I sense a major sell-off looming, and it won't be pretty. What they're saying is they'll take your money gladly by issuing these non-voting shares, and they'll use that same money to prevent dilution? Hahaha what the heck are these guys saying lol I've never heard of something this ridiculous.

Edit: I haven't looked into this very deeply, but if this is a split, they're going to be giving one of these shares under the new ticker to existing shareholders. Uh oh, that is not good.

Do you know if freestockcharts.com or tdw active trader have the market profile indicator on them? I'm trying to find it on freestockcharts.com and can't find it anywhere..

Edit: I'm trying to get some experience with the tool (market profile) - and it's one of the few indicators I haven't been able to find for free online thus far... can anyone tip me off as to where they find theirs?

[aberry33]

This is extremely uncommon. If they don't want to dilute the share base they should go private. No point in selling shares publicly. This is perhaps why GOOG is flat after their report. I sense a major sell-off looming, and it won't be pretty. What they're saying is they'll take your money gladly by issuing these non-voting shares, and they'll use that same money to prevent dilution? Hahaha what the heck are these guys saying lol I've never heard of something this ridiculous.

Edit: I haven't looked into this very deeply, but if this is a split, they're going to be giving one of these shares under the new ticker to existing shareholders. Uh oh, that is not good.

As a MSFT owner I'm a ok with all of this news. Not really sure if it'll help MSFT vs GOOG in the long run but I doubt it can hurt much.