**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[kusok]

BITO was trading at 20$ when Bitcoin was at 16k so the only way they go below 20$ is if Bitcoin tanks below 16k, I don’t see that happening

I would have to spend several hours if I was to look at bito , but generally speaking it’s a high dividend stock so it may not have high correlation to bitcoin price, people and institutions may just be holding it to get some cash flow.

[stockbruh]

Is the meme stock rally over? Im stuck holding 400 shares of AMC

[RobParks2M]

Is the meme stock rally over? Im stuck holding 400 shares of AMC

Yes.

Housing price rise looks high still from both case shiller and Fhfa. I still think for some reason bond market is pricing in chance of a rate cut in July. I don’t think we get one till December. Tempted to go TLT puts to go with my CC.

Still think Kr calls could end up paying by October but perhaps my $60c are too far out. I’ve continued buying $55 got 10 of them after buying at $85 and 82 today(yes I am the only person who has bought the Oct $55 today lmao).

[stockbruh]

Hoping the market isn't teasing me this morning lol.



Can you also do that with oil and oil stocks?

If the oil stock is supposed to trade with the price of oil then yea

[Abzu]

If the oil stock is supposed to trade with the price of oil then yea

While an oil company's stock price has some correlation to oil stocks, the valuation of the company is not based on the current price of oil or speculation of it's future price, a company is valued by how it is run, it's balance sheet, it's current earnings and it's future earnings.

Still think Kr calls could end up paying by October but perhaps my $60c are too far out. I’ve continued buying $55 got 10 of them after buying at $85 and 82 today(yes I am the only person who has bought the Oct $55 today lmao).

46-48 is my target for KR and if it goes there then I'll be buying calls too.

[Abzu]

Bought BROS 7/19 40p for ~1.20, planning on buying the 40-41p out to 8/16 later this week and I'll dbl down on the 40p I already bought, also selling puts on CELH out to multiple dates when it goes to ~55 and I'm dbling down on the call I bought about a week ago.

Planning on selling some NVDA and AAPL calls this week if the market cooperates with me.

I also made some moves on FFIE but this is a lotto ticket lol.

[usersignup2]

BITO was trading at 20$ when Bitcoin was at 16k so the only way they go below 20$ is if Bitcoin tanks below 16k, I don’t see that happening

this is an incorrect assumption.

BITO is not directly correlated to BTC price over the long term

Do a comparison on your charts and you'll see BTC outperforms BITO even when accounting for the dividend. BITO more closely resemble BTC price movement during times of momentum but underperforms during periods of chop so it's possible it could dip to $20 while BTC is at 50k. Hopefully it doesn't because I have a smallish position.

[Abzu]

[NestBrah]

There's a greater than 50% chance that the SPY is valued greater than 552 before you have a significant downturn but the rest of that was pretty good <3.



I wish I would have mentioned it earlier now but I'm >80% sure BITO goes to $17-20 and it could go lower.

Why specifically 5520?

[Abzu]

Why specifically 5520?

It's approximately at or below target.

[TugOfPeace]

Bought BROS 7/19 40p for ~1.20, planning on buying the 40-41p out to 8/16 later this week and I'll dbl down on the 40p I already bought, also selling puts on CELH out to multiple dates when it goes to ~55 and I'm dbling down on the call I bought about a week ago.

Planning on selling some NVDA and AAPL calls this week if the market cooperates with me.

I also made some moves on FFIE but this is a lotto ticket lol.

BROS is being added to the Russell 3000 index this Friday. Not sure if that affects your downside thesis or not. I'd imagine that means more institutions will be buying the stock..

any member of AFRM/UPST crew alive

you made it

UPST crew. Doesn't feel like I made it.. unless by "it" you mean a heavy bag

[Abzu]

BROS is being added to the Russell 3000 index this Friday. Not sure if that affects your downside thesis or not. I'd imagine that means more institutions will be buying the stock..



UPST crew. Doesn't feel like I made it.. unless by "it" you mean a heavy bag

Right now I think BROS can go as high as <42 and I think that is very likely the top but if it doesn't fall there then there's the unlikely possibility of ~48.

The current run up could be due to their addition but that could could lead to a sell off <Friday.

It just ran down from ~41 to ~38 in short time-frame.

[RobParks2M]

BROS is being added to the Russell 3000 index this Friday. Not sure if that affects your downside thesis or not. I'd imagine that means more institutions will be buying the stock..



UPST crew. Doesn't feel like I made it.. unless by "it" you mean a heavy bag

I wonder if he meant you’re still alive lol

[GeneralSerpant]

Russell 2000 is disappointing me.

[stockbruh]

I have 6 open CC 30$ strike for December on PLTR, I was told I can buy calls to hedge against my shares being called away, should I buy them at 31$ or should I buy them below my covered call strike

[SipNPiz]

Nike earnings tomorrow, tough to tell what direction it’ll go

[RobParks2M]

Nike earnings tomorrow, tough to tell what direction it’ll go

Walgreens too

[_zman]

What do if NVDA is now 15% of my portfolio. Was not expecting this to be a problem.

[kusok]

I have 6 open CC 30$ strike for December on PLTR, I was told I can buy calls to hedge against my shares being called away, should I buy them at 31$ or should I buy them below my covered call strike

At or above?

Below will not offer you the hedge you’re looking for, at will provide you the exact protection, above will offer you protection at a lower cost.

I never used this, I just roll the covered calls up and out if they go in the money,

Maybe usergroup poster can help you out, I’m having trouble seeing how math is good at all in this strategy, it seems you can end up losing money.

[kusok]

What do if NVDA is now 15% of my portfolio. Was not expecting this to be a problem.

You’re supposed to let winners run, Kathy wood kept selling Tesla every time it went above 10% of her holding, while the other garbage she was holding was dragging her down, while Buffett let his apple ride, the ****ing thing became half of his portfolio, he doesn’t give a ****, it made him lots of money.

But to maximize your returns every time it gets some kind of an all-time high milestone or something else like let’s say if you 4x your money, you’re supposed to sell 10%, and if you 4x your money, you’re supposed to actually take your entire initial investment off the table. This way you lock in some gains and are able to buy the next dip.

I got this problem with microstrategy, I put in some miserable amount a long time ago, now it’s like I don’t know maybe 30% of my portfolio, I’m selling a little bit every time it hits something really high like $2000, $3000 etc.

[_zman]

You’re supposed to let winners run, Kathy wood kept selling Tesla every time it went above 10% of her holding, while the other garbage she was holding was dragging her down, while Buffett let his apple ride, the ****ing thing became half of his portfolio, he doesn’t give a ****, it made him lots of money.

But to maximize your returns every time it gets some kind of an all-time high milestone or something else like let’s say if you 4x your money, you’re supposed to sell 10%, and if you 4x your money, you’re supposed to actually take your entire initial investment off the table. This way you lock in some gains and are able to buy the next dip.

I got this problem with microstrategy, I put in some miserable amount a long time ago, now it’s like I don’t know maybe 30% of my portfolio, I’m selling a little bit every time it hits something really high like $2000, $3000 etc.

I've always had the let winners run mentality. Maybe I'll take some off the table. Problem is what to put it in when we're at all-time highs, so maybe I leave it. Another problem is cash on hand that should be put to use, and idk if a dip comes with the current printer, and I don't think I'll be buying a house in the next year to use it. Good problems to have, just wasn't expecting them. I debate cars that appreciate. I really regret never buying a Countach now that they've skyrocketed in value.

[RobParks2M]

Kr, to me, is resting on a giant support from March/April 2023. I averaged down $55 calls at $65 each today. I’ve got a final purchase I could make if it continues dropping but unsure what price I’d want for it. Surprised it dropped this much this fast but I am comfortable with the amount of time l can wait (October calls). Shareholder meeting tomorrow so we will see what they have to say. Perhaps there will be some merger news.

[kusok]

I've always had the let winners run mentality. Maybe I'll take some off the table. Problem is what to put it in when we're at all-time highs, so maybe I leave it. Another problem is cash on hand that should be put to use, and idk if a dip comes with the current printer, and I don't think I'll be buying a house in the next year to use it. Good problems to have, just wasn't expecting them. I debate cars that appreciate. I really regret never buying a Countach now that they've skyrocketed in value.

In the past it really hurt me not to have at least 10% cash in my account at all times, frankly better 20%, you never know when some crash happens aka buying opportunity. And you are getting that crappy 5% on it. 5.5% in RobinHood now actually. Can always sell cash secured puts too.

[usersignup2]

In the past it really hurt me not to have at least 10% cash in my account at all times, frankly better 20%, you never know when some crash happens aka buying opportunity. And you are getting that crappy 5% on it. 5.5% in RobinHood now actually. Can always sell cash secured puts too.

switch to margin account. use it only if you need it. can also use it to sell cash secured puts. can draw funds from your account without selling your holdings.

[usersignup2]

What do if NVDA is now 15% of my portfolio. Was not expecting this to be a problem.

why is this a problem? don't get hung up on diversification.

[usersignup2]

I have 6 open CC 30$ strike for December on PLTR, I was told I can buy calls to hedge against my shares being called away, should I buy them at 31$ or should I buy them below my covered call strike

I would not hedge a CC or CSP for the same reason I would not buy calls or puts.

the vast majority of people lose on buying calls and puts.
it's much easier to make money on a CC

why do you sell CC? to make money
what is likely to happen if you buy a call? lose money

based on current option delta Dec 30C have a roughly 63% chance of being OTM by expiration
based on current option delta Dec 32C have a roughly 68% chance of being OTM by expiration

any option you buy, further out of the money, is less likely to be ITM by expiration than your CC

yes, you can make money on a call even if it is OTM. But given the expiration is so far away, there are other strategies to take before expiration
a) wait
b) buy to close
c) buy to close and sell to open a call with lower delta
d) buy to close and increase your knowledge before making another trade

you should not be selling CC at a strike that you a)can't manage or b)not comfortable in letting get called away
PLTR is currently trading around $24.10. That means including the premium, you would make 33% give or take if your shares get called away at $30.

you need to figure this sh!t out before you make a trade, otherwise you're just killin all your gains

[stockbruh]

At or above?

Below will not offer you the hedge you’re looking for, at will provide you the exact protection, above will offer you protection at a lower cost.

I never used this, I just roll the covered calls up and out if they go in the money,

Maybe usergroup poster can help you out, I’m having trouble seeing how math is good at all in this strategy, it seems you can end up losing money.

I will see if this works for me

[taf1968]

Walgreens too

Dayum . . . RIP, Walgreens. Will be closing a bunch of stores and cutting divvy.

[Abzu]

I'm about to make a killing on my HIMS puts, I was planning on selling a chunk of them at ~19 but HIMS said here, take more lol it's ~18.30 in the premarket lol.

[SipNPiz]

As for diversification, COP was 40% of my portfolio at one point, if you have total conviction on a stock ignore everything else imo.