**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[kusok]

It’s worth noting that we have a user who is 99% in one stock, and another user who has 25 options going at the same time.

This is fine/dog sitting in the middle of burning house.gif

it’s as if we are at a high end party, where everyone is in tuxedo and waiters are serving hors d’oeuvres in white gloves, and the quartet is playing music by Mozart, while one of the guests is actually naked and has a toilet bowl chained to his foot, and he walks around dragging the toilet along with him, but no one says anything and just goes on like nothing is happening.

This is normal. It’s like in the crypto thread when someone said they put all their life savings into Pepe. And nobody said anything.

Lol

And what’s funny is that if you pointed that out, you get attacked: you don’t support other members! This is a place where we used to be able to just talk about our trades! why don’t you post pics of your profits? Etc.

…Hey slow down… I was just pointing out that one of the guests is naked and has a toilet bowl chained to his foot, I’m not judging, I’m just making an observation.

[stockbruh]

It’s worth noting that we have a user who is 99% in one stock, and another user who has 25 options going at the same time.

This is fine/dog sitting in the middle of burning house.gif

it’s as if we are at a high end party, where everyone is in tuxedo and waiters are serving hors d’oeuvres in white gloves, and the quartet is playing music by Mozart, while one of the guests is actually naked and has a toilet bowl chained to his foot, and he walks around dragging the toilet along with him, but no one says anything and just goes on like nothing is happening.

This is normal. It’s like in the crypto thread when someone said they put all their life savings into Pepe. And nobody said anything.

Lol

And what’s funny is that if you pointed that out, you get attacked: you don’t support other members! This is a place where we used to be able to just talk about our trades! why don’t you post pics of your profits? Etc.

…Hey slow down… I was just pointing out that one of the guests is naked and has a toilet bowl chained to his foot, I’m not judging, I’m just making an observation.

The toilet bowl guy has 30k worth of profits in his toilet tho so what can you really say to him?

[2020Wellness]

The toilet bowl guy has 30k worth of profits in his toilet tho so what can you really say to him?

And you think the rest of the party guests are broke?

[kusok]

The toilet bowl guy has 30k worth of profits in his toilet tho so what can you really say to him?

I’d say he needs to put on clothes and unchain the toilet? And diversify the portfolio while at it. But again, I’m just making an observation. Not judging. There were people who were 90% Tesla when it was $10 per share several stock splits back. Those people made 10000% returns. Tesla wasn’t at all time high with rsi of 90 like NVDA aka severely overbought and so on, but still.

[2020Wellness]

It’s worth noting that we have a user who is 99% in one stock, and another user who has 25 options going at the same time.

This is fine/dog sitting in the middle of burning house.gif

it’s as if we are at a high end party, where everyone is in tuxedo and waiters are serving hors d’oeuvres in white gloves, and the quartet is playing music by Mozart, while one of the guests is actually naked and has a toilet bowl chained to his foot, and he walks around dragging the toilet along with him, but no one says anything and just goes on like nothing is happening.

This is normal. It’s like in the crypto thread when someone said they put all their life savings into Pepe. And nobody said anything.

Lol

And what’s funny is that if you pointed that out, you get attacked: you don’t support other members! This is a place where we used to be able to just talk about our trades! why don’t you post pics of your profits? Etc.

…Hey slow down… I was just pointing out that one of the guests is naked and has a toilet bowl chained to his foot, I’m not judging, I’m just making an observation.

Amazing post. 100% agree with your sentiment. These approaches don't end well the majority of the time and it's good to have a voice of reason pointing that out. Echo chambers are not good environments for learning and making decisions from multiple points of view.

[RobParks2M]

Amazing post. 100% agree with your sentiment. These approaches don't end well the majority of the time and it's good to have a voice of reason pointing that out. Echo chambers are not good environments for learning and making decisions from multiple points of view.

I agree it needs to be said, but at the end of the day we are all our own men and everyone can do their own thing. We’ll just be here to say I told you so lmao jk

[usersignup2]

It’s worth noting that we have a user who is 99% in one stock, and another user who has 25 options going at the same time.

once you understand the rules, i.e. the basics of investing then you can break them.

I don't think there's anything wrong with either of the above strategies provided there is adequate knowledge and risk management involved. The problem arises when someone thinks going all-in IS the strategy, rather than the research and time to assess the position.

[stockbruh]

And you think the rest of the party guests are broke?

Certainly not, but toilet bowl brah is living his best life not giving A F what anyone else thinks while boomers are emotionaless robots all following after each other

[Abzu]

How do you know how much money you will make when you buy a call? If I buy a 25$ strike call a month out and then buy the same call 4 months out and the stock goes up, will both those calls both go up the same percentage?

What Kusok said is correct, short-dated options move quicker than long-dated ones but there are many way to calculate future price of your option, you need to understand how options are priced if you want to play them.

You can use the delta to get a future price, delta tells you how much an option will move for every $1 the underlying moves, the problem with this is delta changes as the stock moves due to a number of factors.

The simplest way is to underestimate price by using only intrinsic value, you can also use optionstrat to model but you need to accurately estimate IV, IBKR has tools to help with that.




Black–Scholes model

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black%...3Scholes_model

[Abzu]

I’d say he needs to put on clothes and unchain the toilet? And diversify the portfolio while at it. But again, I’m just making an observation. Not judging. There were people who were 90% Tesla when it was $10 per share several stock splits back. Those people made 10000% returns. Tesla wasn’t at all time high with rsi of 90 like NVDA aka severely overbought and so on, but still.

That was a great post for a few reasons lol but I'll say that just as you talk of diversifying your portfolio(to lower risk) you should also diversify your skill set.

The things that I'm doing right now in the market are not what I would be doing under different market conditions, I take what it gives me then I move on.

It sounds like I don't like growth stocks, I do like them but I like them at certain times and the time dictates how I play them.

If the growth stocks are cheap and the beginning of a bull cycle then I'll buy stock and calls so I can sell calls for a long time.

If the growth stocks are expensive then I don't buy, I play both directions through short-term options, get in and get out.

I can sell or buy options every single day because I watch 100s of stocks and I have the diverse skill set to adapt.



Started with buy and hold(learning how to read a balance sheet, understand ratios, how to value a stock) due to inexperience, moved to swing trading(understanding technical analysis, momentum, catalysts) due to market cycle and then simple(buy) options trading out of a mix of necessity and natural progression, how do you make money when the market goes down and why am I not making more money on my cash?

I just started trading the market in 2021, started options trading in 2022 and now my style is something like what I mentioned earlier in this thread.

I don't understand what is so difficult about trading, it feels like cheating to me and I'm not even that smart, I just discovered this in 2021 lol.

[NestBrah]

That was a great post for a few reasons lol but I'll say that just as you talk of diversifying your portfolio(to lower risk) you should also diversify your skill set.

The things that I'm doing right now in the market are not what I would be doing under different market conditions, I take what it gives me then I move on.

It sounds like I don't like growth stocks, I do like them but I like them at certain times and the time dictates how I play them.

If the growth stocks are cheap and the beginning of a bull cycle then I'll buy stock and calls so I can sell calls for a long time.

If the growth stocks are expensive then I don't buy, I play both directions through short-term options, get in and get out.

I can sell or buy options every single day because I watch 100s of stocks and I have the diverse skill set to adapt.



Started with buy and hold(learning how to read a balance sheet, understand ratios, how to value a stock) due to inexperience, moved to swing trading(understanding technical analysis, momentum, catalysts) due to market cycle and then simple(buy) options trading out of a mix of necessity and natural progression, how do you make money when the market goes down and why am I not making more money on my cash?

I just started trading the market in 2021, started options trading in 2022 and now my style is something like what I mentioned earlier in this thread.

I don't understand what is so difficult about trading, it feels like cheating to me and I'm not even that smart, I just discovered this in 2021 lol.

Been reading through all your posts man. Appreciate the wisdom and knowledge you are sharing with us.

I'm going to look at getting into options myself, but obviously only with a very small % of my resources.

How much are you up the past few years as a % since you began trading?

My only concern is you seem very confident in your overall forecasts. How can you be so confident when the market is often so irrational? It's beginning to feel more and more with every passing year that the market no longer rewards rationalism.

It seems insane to me, but not inconceivable, that the S&P 500 could for example surpass 6000 this year based on the momentum it's picked up and bullish patterns it's showing. Disagree?

Thanks again man.

[kusok]

once you understand the rules, i.e. the basics of investing then you can break them.

I don't think there's anything wrong with either of the above strategies provided there is adequate knowledge and risk management involved. The problem arises when someone thinks going all-in IS the strategy, rather than the research and time to assess the position.

Good point! In this case thou, from reading the relevant posts, it appears the person who went all in in one stock, his entire research was the post: hey guys, what do you think if I put in all of the money that I actually need soon into this one stock at an all-time high?

By the way, I wanna be very clear again, I’m not judging, I remember someone did the same thing when NVDA was $500, and literally everyone called them crazy, what are you doing?! You’re putting in all of your money into one stock, which is at an all-time high with an insanely high PE? Well, that person would have doubled their money in a year or two, so I want to be very clear that I’m not saying anything bad about that person or their decision, it’s just interesting to me. They may very well be a lot smarter than I am since I held NVDA in the past and made a few thousand dollars, but if I held, I would’ve had 10s of thousands and possibly more.

so good luck to them, but when the market moves in the other direction that can be pretty brutal, and it’s always important to be paranoid and protect what you have, not just think about how much you can make, but how much you can keep if something goes wrong.

[Abzu]

I'm going to double up on my NVDA calls today when the stock price goes to $120-123.

Been reading through all your posts man. Appreciate the wisdom and knowledge you are sharing with us.

I'm going to look at getting into options myself, but obviously only with a very small % of my resources.

How much are you up the past few years as a % since you began trading?

My only concern is you seem very confident in your overall forecasts. How can you be so confident when the market is often so irrational? It's beginning to feel more and more with every passing year that the market no longer rewards rationalism.

It seems insane to me, but not inconceivable, that the S&P 500 could for example surpass 6000 this year based on the momentum it's picked up and bullish patterns it's showing. Disagree?

Thanks again man.

Will respond today.

[kusok]

That was a great post for a few reasons lol but I'll say that just as you talk of diversifying your portfolio(to lower risk) you should also diversify your skill set.

The things that I'm doing right now in the market are not what I would be doing under different market conditions, I take what it gives me then I move on.

It sounds like I don't like growth stocks, I do like them but I like them at certain times and the time dictates how I play them.

If the growth stocks are cheap and the beginning of a bull cycle then I'll buy stock and calls so I can sell calls for a long time.

If the growth stocks are expensive then I don't buy, I play both directions through short-term options, get in and get out.

I can sell or buy options every single day because I watch 100s of stocks and I have the diverse skill set to adapt.



Started with buy and hold(learning how to read a balance sheet, understand ratios, how to value a stock) due to inexperience, moved to swing trading(understanding technical analysis, momentum, catalysts) due to market cycle and then simple(buy) options trading out of a mix of necessity and natural progression, how do you make money when the market goes down and why am I not making more money on my cash?

I just started trading the market in 2021, started options trading in 2022 and now my style is something like what I mentioned earlier in this thread.

I don't understand what is so difficult about trading, it feels like cheating to me and I'm not even that smart, I just discovered this in 2021 lol.

I would just add that it’s important to have a little bit of paranoia and to protect yourself, hold some cash,

we have been in a very strong bull market so it’s understandable why you may feel trading as easy, I started investing at the height of the last bull market Right before the last crash, I found out real quick that trading was not easy, but My girlfriend at the time started trading on the bottom of the bull market before that, and she thought trading was very very easy.

Should the tide turn again, would people who started investing recently suddenly realize it’s not so easy and leave the market? Or are they going to identify buying opportunity and bravely step into a burning building? And would they have the cash to step into the burning building? Would people who think trading is easy have the balls like Michael Bury who was down 2 billion dollars for two years to hold and eventually make his 1 billion profit?

During bear markets and crashes Wall Street professionals are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, nobody knows anything, the dips keep dipping, stocks drop from $90 to $8 when you thought that support was at $80 and the bottom was at $70, it drops to $8
Will trading be easy then and will you still hold? If this goes on for two or three years?


I also try to make a very clear distinction for myself between investing and trading, I do a little bit of both, mostly in different portfolios.

The comparison between trading and investing is pretty funny, I remember I made something like $10,000 in one MSTR trade, for a poor lifelong wage slave refugee like myself it was nothing short of a miracle, but what I learned real quick is that if I just held and did absolutely nothing I would’ve been a multimillionaire by now, Which reminds me of another classic story. Some investor talked about on one podcast, he said he was trading as a young stock trader on Wall Street and he was pretty happy since he became a millionaire, and then he showed up at some old investors house for a party, and there was a Van Gogh right in front of the front door, in the lobby of his house, Lol, at that point, he realized the difference between trading and investing.

[Visel]

I'm toilet bowl brah lol. The full port NVDA dude.

A lot has happened in a few days, both to NVDA and to me. I sold a large chunk of NVDA during pre market, and am working on putting that into a down payment on a new construction. Been talking to the mortgage loaner, real estate agents, etc.

[NestBrah]

Tom Lee:

S&P 500 to 15,000 by 2030.

It's frustrating the way these guys are paid to pull numbers out of their ass, and then as soon as one gets a few lucky calls correct they're paraded as a genius.

[kusok]

Tom Lee:

S&P 500 to 15,000 by 2030.

It's frustrating the way these guys are paid to pull numbers out of their ass, and then as soon as one gets a few lucky calls correct they're paraded as a genius.

It seems you have a Bearish view which you might’ve gotten by listening to too many doomsdayers?

Tom Lee has a very good record as far as his accuracy, and he does provide very detailed reasoning for his bullishness, he’s essentially saying the same thing Many people have been saying for a long time, the market will always go up because money is being printed, so everything goes up in price, including stocks, That’s the design, the bull climbs a wall of worry, there’s always gonna be some reasons why the market should go down, but there is always more reasons why it will go up,

Specifically there’s a lot of money on the side right now, financial advisors are paid to invest their customers money, they have to deploy, they have missed out on massive gains recently, if they don’t wanna get fired, they have to ****ing invest their customers money.

[kusok]

I'm toilet bowl brah lol. The full port NVDA dude.

A lot has happened in a few days, both to NVDA and to me. I sold a large chunk of NVDA during pre market, and am working on putting that into a down payment on a new construction. Been talking to the mortgage loaner, real estate agents, etc.

Repped for being a good sport and not getting wrecked lol and for making good profit.

[Destor]

So I let the market do its thing, and don't post on a daily basis because I make medium length holds or until price targets are reached and then I actually make profit and come out ahead and post proof? CRAZYYYYY. You got me there bro, I should've been posting online everyday in a gay indian bodybuilding forum under the investing tab, surely that would be extremely productive. Also, like my other posts since you seemed to do research on them, this should mean I'll be right and post proof right babe ?

Must be pretty miserable irl to be so negative, and douchey. Listen we all have no right in here posting "investment advice" I think it's obvious none of us have that right, but we do like to post stocks that we have faith and conviction in whether for confirmation bias, education, or other reasons. At least I actually post proof of what I do and don't just post highlight gains.


Paypal hits $120, within the next 1.5-2 years delete your account and never post again, if it doesn't I'll delete mine. Last time I posted about having high conviction and yoloing that one poster said I would have $0 and rope yada yada yada in a few months, so I marked the date, then I come back and he's nowhere to be found, hopefully you at least come back and look like a fool and eat your words before you delete, I predict you'll make some sort of cop out, and say some low iq response or some sort of analysis paralysis response, anyways last post in here before PYPL hits $120. See you then ****g0t.


JOIN ME PYPL CREW.

Huh I don’t recall the timeline on this being 1.5-2 years, for some reason I recall this call being 1 year, but we’re closing in on this stock being dead money / down since.

But I’d be surprised if sebackers has been sitting in this the whole time rather than making 100 moves and just not posting about them.

[RobParks2M]

Ho Lee fuk I’m glad I sold those DJT puts. Didn’t see this upward move coming at all. Can’t wait to short again closer to September.

[dankydank]

Oil back to life in an hour after looking dead Friday option expiry. NVDA around 50 RSI. At current rates it would hit 30 around $105 if it goes there which I would buy longer dated calls

[dankydank]

BTC could unironically be a buy. Closing at 25 daily RSI. Last time it did was August 2023 at $26k before the big run. I don’t think it’s running up to $100k but back to $70k probably if stock market doesn’t tank. The crypto adjacent stocks like COIN/MSTR might pay but the premium is juiced. Pricing in 20% movement in 2 months.

[stockbruh]

BITO tanking hard along with BTC,doubt they will pay a dividend like last month with the price being so low, also starting to notice the dividend is making the stock track less with Bitcoin. I’ll prob be forced to but 100-200 shares to average down and be able to get out around 28$ unless BTC goes on another run. Can’t even sell covered calls anymore the premiums are so low

[thatsnarf]

any member of AFRM/UPST crew alive

you made it

[kusok]

BITO tanking hard along with BTC,doubt they will pay a dividend like last month with the price being so low, also starting to notice the dividend is making the stock track less with Bitcoin. I’ll prob be forced to but 100-200 shares to average down and be able to get out around 28$ unless BTC goes on another run. Can’t even sell covered calls anymore the premiums are so low

I would wait until some kind of a confirmation of a bottom first, I have options trading bot running 24/7 , and it didn’t close it spy put yet, which means this may not be the bottom, then I would sell cash secure puts at support Repeatedly, and if you get assigned then you have lowered your cost basis and can start selling calls, if premiums are bad you can sell six weeks out, in fact, if things go really badly, you can even sell slightly below your cost basis, because if it shoots up dramatically, you will be able to roll up and out to your cost basis. That is a pretty classic so-called stock rescue strategy.

And if it keeps tanking to below 30% loss, and doesn’t show signs of bottoming out, then welcome to long-term investing, lol,

[Abzu]

I would wait until some kind of a confirmation of a bottom first, I have options trading bot running 24/7 , and it didn’t close it spy put yet, which means this may not be the bottom, then I would sell cash secure puts at support Repeatedly, and if you get assigned then you have lowered your cost basis and can start selling calls, if premiums are bad you can sell six weeks out, in fact, if things go really badly, you can even sell slightly below your cost basis, because if it shoots up dramatically, you will be able to roll up and out to your cost basis. That is a pretty classic so-called stock rescue strategy.

And if it keeps tanking to below 30% loss, and doesn’t show signs of bottoming out, then welcome to long-term investing, lol,

There's a greater than 50% chance that the SPY is valued greater than 552 before you have a significant downturn but the rest of that was pretty good <3.

BITO tanking hard along with BTC,doubt they will pay a dividend like last month with the price being so low, also starting to notice the dividend is making the stock track less with Bitcoin. I’ll prob be forced to but 100-200 shares to average down and be able to get out around 28$ unless BTC goes on another run. Can’t even sell covered calls anymore the premiums are so low

I wish I would have mentioned it earlier now but I'm >80% sure BITO goes to $17-20 and it could go lower.

[RobParks2M]

any member of AFRM/UPST crew alive

you made it

What is your definition of “making it” in this scenario lmao.

Edit:

Wow CVNA the “CEO”s daddy is selling $6m in shares basically every day the market is open since May. That float has got to be exploding and yet somehow shares are going up. Very curious to see what their cash position looks like if they pay down their debt with cash on hand come September. They are still burning money and won’t be able to deliver a fake profit from their Root insurance warrants. I’m wondering if this scam artist is going to attempt to buyout root at a slightly inflated cost to boost share value of Carvana short term and keep selling overpriced shares. He had 3.3 million shares early April and is down to 1 million currently. Pulled out roughly $240 million and somehow share price hasn’t dropped hardly at all.

[kusok]

There's a greater than 50% chance that the SPY is valued greater than 552 before you have a significant downturn but the rest of that was pretty good <3.



I wish I would have mentioned it earlier now but I'm >80% sure BITO goes to $17-20 and it could go lower.

I’m looking at the charts and I’m having a hard time seeing bito drop below $19, it would have to break all the support levels, what would be the reason for that?

I guess if bitcoin decides to wave down to 50 K before going up to 90s?

Spy can obviously correct, it does hello several times per year,

[stockbruh]

I’m looking at the charts and I’m having a hard time seeing bito drop below $19, it would have to break all the support levels, what would be the reason for that?

I guess if bitcoin decides to wave down to 50 K before going up to 90s?

Spy can obviously correct, it does hello several times per year,

BITO was trading at 20$ when Bitcoin was at 16k so the only way they go below 20$ is if Bitcoin tanks below 16k, I don’t see that happening

[Abzu]

Hoping the market isn't teasing me this morning lol.

BITO was trading at 20$ when Bitcoin was at 16k so the only way they go below 20$ is if Bitcoin tanks below 16k, I don’t see that happening

Can you also do that with oil and oil stocks?