There are FAR FAR FAR less potential buyers now because of interest rates and yet inventory is SKYROCKETING because there are more and more home sellers every year. I'd estimate that months supply of homes will be above pre Covid Levels in Fall 2025 and there will be a MASSIVE OVERCORRECTION with home supply skyrocketing to record levels causing a MASSIVE HOUSING MARKET CRASH between 2026 and 2030.
April Active Listing Count by year.
April 2020 941,733
April 2021 434,633
April 2022 379,978
April 2023 562,966
April 2024 734,318
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05-26-2024, 02:35 AM #1
Housing Inventory SKYROCKETING, not far from pre covid levels now
Last edited by Sal29; 05-26-2024 at 02:42 AM.
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05-26-2024, 02:50 AM #2
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05-26-2024, 03:10 AM #3
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05-26-2024, 03:10 AM #4
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05-26-2024, 03:41 AM #5
It's naive to think that supply and demand doesn't affect market prices. The real stat to look at is going to be mortgage delinquencies which are up but not that much...yet.
Right now, people will stay put even when they can't afford the home because it would cost more for them to rent. Mortgage lenders are doing modifications which are 'extend and pretend' which means they are taking the loan off the delinquency list for now and kicking the can down the road. That dynamic will change when more and more distressed sales come on the market and in tandem, rental prices will drop.
In Florida, I have seen tons of people get approved for modifications or partial claims without having to provide financial docs in many cases. The borrower soon after defaults on that trial mod.
When people buy homes with minimal down, they are already upside-down because if they sold, they would have transaction costs, but real estate prices are kinda sticky and don't change overnight. One thing we learned from the last housing crash circa 2008 is that negative equity is the primary reason for default. Fortunately, real estate prices never go down in value, right?6'5" 210 lbs, 10.9% body fat
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05-26-2024, 03:41 AM #6
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