|
-
05-22-2024, 03:31 PM #5641
-
05-22-2024, 05:18 PM #5642
-
05-22-2024, 05:57 PM #5643
-
05-22-2024, 06:32 PM #5644
-
-
05-23-2024, 05:32 AM #5645
-
05-23-2024, 05:51 AM #5646
-
05-23-2024, 06:53 AM #5647
I just bought more stock in UVV at ~$47.
WBA is nearing a buy, I think AMC is going to make another huge run, I think DJT can go to the ~30 before it goes even higher, I'll try to be more detailed later.
Will get to the long call requests at the appropriate time.
I think you will love some of the plays I have in mind.Last edited by Abzu; 05-23-2024 at 06:58 AM.
I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
-
05-23-2024, 07:31 AM #5648
-
-
05-23-2024, 08:02 AM #5649
-
05-23-2024, 08:16 AM #5650
-
05-23-2024, 08:16 AM #5651
-
05-23-2024, 08:25 AM #5652
-
-
05-23-2024, 08:41 AM #5653
Well, cutting rates weakens currency, if the rest of the globe cuts while America remains steady then the dollar should rise against global currency.
The dollar is already strong against the world but global rate cuts that do not include America will only make it stronger.
Generally a strong dollar means a weaker stock market but that has not been the case do to global weakness.
If the globes cuts rates then their markets should become stronger with loose money.
As the dollar rises against these other currencies our market should correct.
If the dollar rises and the market corrects then the fed can cut rates.
The complete reopening of China should also give the fed further room to cut rates into the future beyond what is expected.
The end of these wars will also put more goods on the market giving the fed even more room to cute rates into the future.I: Self, Lord and Master.
"I rub my hands when my palms itch."
"I call you Son not because you Shine but because you Mine."
-
05-23-2024, 09:13 AM #5654
-
05-23-2024, 09:15 AM #5655
- Join Date: Apr 2012
- Location: Alberta, Canada
- Age: 39
- Posts: 26,448
- Rep Power: 242268
Lower rates in other countries will affect the spot exchange rate but have a lesser impact on prices paid within those countries, that’s the dynamic that is apparently different today — there is very little pass through from lower exchange rates to actual prices (at least in Canada). The BoC governor had talked about this recently and figured it would take a huge divide between US and Canadian policy rates to have any impact on prices, so there’s a lot of wiggle room.
Not sure about other parts of the world or other dynamics though
-
05-23-2024, 10:57 AM #5656
-
-
05-23-2024, 12:17 PM #5657
-
05-23-2024, 12:27 PM #5658
So it seems to be the case that Blackwell the new chip is so advanced that it’s not as of yet interfering with neither Hopper nor Amd’s mi300. The last generation’s chips are still on backorder and the new ones are just so expensive that it’s in its own pocket of the market. That keeps things consistent for both the future market and today’s with room for development by competition.
Given that nvidia’s business remains constant, I would Guess that the curve of the graph will climb steadily with only too much room for volatility in the form of selloffs and macro concerns. I’m guessing one or two more reports will carry consistent progress then start to slow down until the 2-year mark coming out of this latest January. After that the AI playing field will be more spread out by businesses but will be characterized by more normal business growth for another 8 years.Last edited by GeneralSerpant; 05-23-2024 at 07:05 PM.
-
05-23-2024, 12:49 PM #5659
-
05-23-2024, 12:57 PM #5660
-
-
05-23-2024, 01:01 PM #5661
Long story short is stock gains + NVDA call flips helped me bring my portfolio to $132k by mid March. This was just around when GTC was going on, hype was up, NVDA reached $970, then it tanked a little and the call buying began. My calls, as you can see, were really risky and OTM. $990 March 22, and $945/$950 April 19th. These expired and my portfolio went down to roughly $50k. Eventually onward to $39k.
The day NVDA dropped down into the $760s (April 19th) I bought some Aug 16th $850 calls. I didn't time it too well though, I think I bought when NVDA was around $815 that day. Could've bought more for cheaper (8 calls for $60 instead of 6 calls for $83).
Today I sold when NVDA reached about $1049.
$132k mid march -> $39k mid April -> $136k realized today
When the drop from $132k to now began
i7-14700k
360mm AIO Liquid Cooler (Maingear)
4080 SUPER Founder's Edition
2x16GB 6000mhz DDR5 CL30
2TB Samsung 990 Pro
Corsair GA 850W Gold
MSI PRO Z790-A WIFI
Everything I write is NOT financial advice.
-
05-23-2024, 01:37 PM #5662
-
05-23-2024, 02:19 PM #5663
-
05-23-2024, 03:45 PM #5664
-
-
05-23-2024, 04:08 PM #5665
-
05-23-2024, 08:24 PM #5666
-
05-23-2024, 09:07 PM #5667
No. And I'd be lying if I told you I made $4k. I didn't calculate everything, but while I was "buying calls to undo prior mistakes" I did maybe $10k or so worth of deposits. If anything I probably lost $6k in the grand total.
I told my parents a gist of the details (after I succeeded today) but I left this particular detail out. Being down $6k is way better than being down ~$100k though I'll tell you. I would say if I had to choose between the following ideas... : 1) stop (sell everything) at $132k in March and suffer the FOMO associated with NVDA finally reaching $1k+... 2) the actual events that took place. ABSOLUTELY #1 is the best option by several million miles.
Primary lessons, in descending order...: 1) Never go with 2 months or less expiration dates in options. 2) Commit to a limited threshold (10% or less of portfolio as example)... viewing options as a way to risk a reasonably acceptable portfolio percentage for a similar level of gain (not triple or nothing). 3) ACCEPT PHARKING LOSSES AND/OR PURSUE STOP LOSSES. 4) Commit with a planned strategy, never allowing random "analysts" or people sounding intellectual on the internet influence your strategies... a bet is a bet... accept it with stop losses or plan for the potential loss of the entire gamble. 5) If you plan to go with options, you should buy your call/put after what seems like a substantial movement in the opposite direction over a significant time frame (IE maybe time buying the calls when you ACTUALLY THINK "damn that's cheap now wtf".... or buying puts when you ACTUALLY THINK "damn that's crazy expensive now wtf").
All in all I had a significant spell of depression, attitude change, anger, resentment, defeatism, insomnia, etc. over the last 3 months. No this was not worth it. I am very thankful for the outcome.i7-14700k
360mm AIO Liquid Cooler (Maingear)
4080 SUPER Founder's Edition
2x16GB 6000mhz DDR5 CL30
2TB Samsung 990 Pro
Corsair GA 850W Gold
MSI PRO Z790-A WIFI
Everything I write is NOT financial advice.
-
05-24-2024, 12:05 AM #5668
-
-
05-24-2024, 04:50 AM #5669
-
05-24-2024, 06:39 AM #5670
Bookmarks