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Thread: Fantasy Football discussion 2023
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08-26-2023, 03:53 PM #121
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08-26-2023, 08:12 PM #122
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I'll go Saquon first due to his hands. he'll catch 50 balls and the other two are highly unlikely to do that.
next i have to barely go Henry over Chubb. Everyone wants to predict the demise of the King but Henry put up nearly 2,000 all-purpose yards and 13 touchdowns last year. the team hasn't gotten significantly worse - if anything, with hopkins and maybe a healthy tannehill all season, it's slightly better. I watched a lot of DH last year and he didn't look any worse to me. he just had to shoulder the load more than anyone ever should. malik willis didn't look like he had a clue what he was doing.
even if you want to say yes, he's lost a step. i'm ok with that because his role is still the full-blown centerpiece of the offense. it's not like Chubb doesn't have a ton of miles on the tires either. Henry also gets the texans defense twice during the fantasy playoffs, for what it's worth.
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08-28-2023, 06:24 AM #123
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08-28-2023, 08:15 AM #124
Was Gibbs your round 2 pick? Maybe I'm sleeping on him but I feel like RB depth might be a problem (and I like Pacheco and Mattison more than most people).
I got my first draft tonight pick 5 in a 12 man. My plan is to take Kelce at 5, then the best available RB's in 2 and 3 followed by the best available WR's in 4 and 5. I still like some WR's in even later rounds but I feel like RB's fall off fast, I'm hoping for someone like Mattison, Pacheco, or Brian Robinson later and depending what RB's I get early I may need their handcuffsHeight = 6'3"
Weight = 215
Max
Bench = 335
Squat = 365
Dead = 425
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08-28-2023, 08:41 AM #125
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08-28-2023, 08:46 AM #126
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If Taylor goes to Miami how would that backfield look? Lot of RBs there none of which are even close to his level but I could see it becoming a committee.
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08-28-2023, 08:48 AM #127
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i think any team that brings in Taylor is doing so with the idea of him being the alpha dog of the backfield.
wilson is a nice backup, he really is. i've had him on a couple teams over the years and he gets the job done. raheem is a good backup too and more of a sprinter to me. but raheem is 31, he and wilson are nowhere near what Taylor can be.
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08-28-2023, 09:10 AM #128
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08-28-2023, 09:10 AM #129
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08-28-2023, 09:11 AM #130
I did my first draft last night. I picked 7/12 in PPR and Kelce fell, so I did something I never did and took Mahomes 2nd and didn't take either an RB or a WR in the first two rounds (I did have one keeper, which was Dobbins for a 9th). Here's how the team came out:
QB: Mahomes, Pickett
RB: Hall, Dobbins, Sanders, Spears
WR: DJM, Pickens, Aiyuk, Dotson, Eli Moore, Dell, Rashee
TE: Kelce, LaPorta
DST: Eagles
K: IDK, someone
I wanted Najee in the 3rd, but he was sniped the pick before me, so I pivoted to Breece with the intention to draft Cook a couple rounds later. My intention was to take Cook in the 7th, but when my 7th pick came around, Aiyuk was still on the board, so I decided to take Aiyuk because that's too much value there and hope Cook fell to the 8th, but unfortunately he didn't, so I'm a little more shorthanded than I'd like at RB. I figure, Hall's workload should increase as the season progresses, and Spears is a great dart throw since Tenn's season could go downhill into full blown rebuilding zone pretty quickly, and if Spears is playing for Henry at the end of the season, they have two games against Houston in the fantasy playoff window (wks 15 & 17).
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08-28-2023, 09:19 AM #131
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08-28-2023, 09:23 AM #132
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08-28-2023, 09:47 AM #133
Yeah, I'm definitely shooting for a team somewhat like this, but I'm gonna take whatever RB is available in the 2nd and 3rd so I won't have Mahomes (he goes early in my leagues anyway because I play with some KC people). I'm targeting similar receivers to you, I want DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Terry McClaurin, Christian Watson, and/or George Pickens who are all almost always available when I'm looking to draft WR's; and if they aren't available that means someone else would have slipped. Generally I've been waiting on QB though with this strategy and hoping to snag Rodgers at some point.
Height = 6'3"
Weight = 215
Max
Bench = 335
Squat = 365
Dead = 425
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08-28-2023, 10:10 AM #134
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08-28-2023, 10:22 AM #135
Just as an FYI, this was a friends league that is my biggest money league (still relatively small stakes at a couple hundred buy-in, as I'm not really a gambler), and RBs went off the board like a normal year. Most "pundits" expect RBs to be there in later rounds than normal, but that was not my experience yesterday. Here are the RB picks in the first 5 rounds:
Round Player Position PickNo
1 McCaffrey, Christian RB 2
1 Robinson, Bijan RB 4
1 Ekeler, Austin RB 5
1 Barkley, Saquon RB 6
1 Chubb, Nick RB 10
1 Henry, Derrick RB 11
1 Jacobs, Josh RB 12
2 Gibbs, Jahmyr RB 21
2 Taylor, Jonathan RB 23
3 Etienne, Travis RB 25
3 Mixon, Joe RB 27
3 Jones, Aaron RB 29
3 Harris, Najee RB 30
3 Hall, Breece RB 31
3 Stevenson, Rhamondre RB 33
4 Conner, James RB 37
4 Kamara, Alvin RB 38
4 Pierce, Dameon RB 41
4 Cook, James RB 46
5 Williams, Javonte RB 52
5 White, Rachaad RB 56
5 Herbert, Khalil RB 58
There were 7 RBs in the first round and guys like Kamara, Pierce, Cook, Williams, White, and Herbert, who you would expect to be there later, gone by the end of the 5th (Pollard and Walker aren't listed because they were keepers in round >5). I grabbed Miles Sanders in the 6th and thought that was a good value all told (and of course had Dobbins coming in the 9th as my keeper). The other choices around there were Mattison, Monty, Pacheco, Akers, and B. Robinson.
Here is my draft:
1 Kelce, Travis TE 7
2 Mahomes, Patrick QB 18
3 Hall, Breece RB 31
4 Moore, DJ WR 42
5 Pickens, George WR 55
6 Sanders, Miles RB 66
7 Aiyuk, Brandon WR 79
8 Dotson, Jahan WR 90
9 Dobbins, J.K. RB 103 (K)
10 Pickett, Kenny QB 114
11 Philadelphia Eagles DST 127
12 Spears, Tyjae RB 138
13 Moore, Elijah WR 151
14 LaPorta, Sam TE 162
15 Dell, Tank WR 175
16 Rice, Rashee WR 186
17 McManus, Brandon K 199Last edited by Jayarbie; 08-28-2023 at 10:29 AM.
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08-28-2023, 10:39 AM #136
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this speaks to the scarcity situation. there are still seemingly far more big money WRs than there are RBs and guys know it. drafts with your buddies are not the same as matthew berry and his friends on rotoworld or fantasypros. i could absolutely see this happening in my league especially with it being an in-person draft on my porch. "runs" happen and heavily influence where the draft goes.
this is also how something like the draftwizard on fantasy pros - which is fun to use dont get me wrong - can hurt you because you become accustomed to certain guys being around in the mid/late rounds and suddenly they're not.
as for your team i'll be honest with you i think this is an example of why i do not want to try the Chiefs double-dip. it feels like you're missing something. and i definitely am not big on breece, i think the whole reason they got cook is because they know breece isn't close to what he was last year
not to pile on but to me you don't have a RB1 and you don't have a WR1. DJ Moore is talented but on a new team, sharing with Kmet/Mooney/Claypool with a QB that isn't really a high volume passer at all. Pickens is a highlight reel waiting to happen but was barely startable most of LY. i don't know maybe i'm way off. i would've gone for a big bad WR in the first and rolled with a guy like Dallas G at TE and dealt with whatever happens.
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08-28-2023, 10:54 AM #137
Well, the Chiefs double dip is supposed to give me a big advantage at TE and QB, which obviously has consequences for RB and WR. I know I don't have a WR1, but I feel like Pickens is going to be a breakout player. The whole Steelers offense is going to be way better. Pickett has a year in the pros and isn't a rookie, Pickens is a stud who should take a step forward, and Najee isn't playing with a lisfranc injury in the skill players, but the big thing is the line. Their offensive line was a clear liability through 2021 and the first half of last year, but they were improving to middle of the pack by the end of last year and then invested big in both FA (Seamalu/Herbig) and draft (Jones) directly in the O-line plus added Washington and J-Rob for their blocking. So I am gambling a little on Pickens, but he is someone I think is going to break through along with the rest of their offense. DJM is a high level WR2 at least. I also think the Bears passing game will be much improved, and it's certainly not worse than what DJM was working with in Carolina where he put up decent numbers.
As for RB, my plan was to take Cook to back up Breece early since I also think he'll be eased in a little at the start, but I let it go one round too long. Breece is an RB1 when healthy, which should be by the fantasy playoffs when I really need him.
Anyway, we'll see how it works out. I've never tried anything like it before.
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08-28-2023, 11:02 AM #138
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Pickett in the 10th just a homer pick? Feels like there would have been a good rookie or premium handcuff you could have grabbed there.
4 Conner, James RB 37
4 Cook, James RB 46
5 Williams, Javonte RB 52
5 White, Rachaad RB 56
5 Herbert, Khalil RB 58Last edited by WHChampion; 08-28-2023 at 11:20 AM.
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08-28-2023, 11:25 AM #139
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i'll rebut you on the Chiefs dip being a "big advantage" at TE and QB. I can certainly understand the Kelce argument and I'll let you have that one especially since last year Andrews fell off hard (as we discussed recently) and nobody's really close after that.
but Mahomes mid second is tough here. is mahomes a big advantage? is he going to get you that many more points per week than allen/herbert/burrow/lamar etc where it's worth passing on a nice WR1 or solid RB1/2?
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08-28-2023, 11:41 AM #140
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08-28-2023, 11:43 AM #141
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08-28-2023, 11:51 AM #142
These were the picks between my pick of Pickett and when I picked Spears two rounds later (i.e. the "good rookie or premium handcuff", of which Spears is both):
10 Pickett, Kenny QB 114
10 Meyers, Jakobi WR 115
10 Perine, Samaje RB 116
10 Bigsby, Tank RB 117
10 New York Jets DST 118
10 Njoku, David TE 119
10 Mitchell, Elijah RB 120
11 Pittsburgh Steelers DST 121
11 Smith, Geno QB 122
11 Mooney, Darnell WR 123
11 Hyatt, Jalin WR 124
11 Richardson, Anthony QB 125
11 Tucker, Justin K 126
11 Philadelphia Eagles DST 127
11 Toney, Kadarius WR 128
11 Penny, Rashaad RB 129
11 Allgeier, Tyler RB 130
11 McPherson, Evan K 131
11 Thielen, Adam WR 132
12 White, Zamir RB 133
12 New Orleans Saints DST 134
12 Carlson, Daniel K 135
12 Bateman, Rashod WR 136
12 Kincaid, Dalton TE 137
12 Spears, Tyjae RB 138
There's not a whole lot in that list who excites me. Bigsby maybe, but he's a lot like Spears with maybe a better track to immediate playing time early whereas Spears is more likely to make a late season impact with a very favorable schedule. So, yeah, Pickett was somewhat of a homer pick, but again, I also believe in the Steelers offense this year as a major break out unit. My later round picks (Spears, LaPorta, Dell, Rice) are all pure ceiling plays with an eye to potential keepers for next year (we keep one guy for a 2 round premium, so LaPorta in 14 can be kept for a 12...).
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08-28-2023, 12:02 PM #143
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08-28-2023, 01:01 PM #144
Yeah, I'm not really high on any of those guys except maybe Bigsby. The other RBs Perine, Mitchell, and Allegier are quality handcuffs for starters I didn't have and the receivers there don't interest me at all. Bigsby is the only one who has a pathway to relevance that doesn't involve someone else getting injured first.
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08-28-2023, 01:04 PM #145
Pollard was a keeper (in the 7th I think). He was not available. And it is a team that looks like it doesn't have a first round RB or WR because it doesn't. LOL. The idea is that the points from the positional advantage at TE & QB make up for it while I play for breakouts at WR & RB. Anyway, it's an experiment. I'll see how it goes. I don't plan to do this with any of my other teams.
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08-28-2023, 01:26 PM #146
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My point is more that those guys at least have an out to giving you value. Only way you're starting Pickett is if Mahomes gets injured and if he goes down you're pretty fked anyways because of having Kelce too.
I don't see Perine as purely a handcuff either. They can say Javonte is fine all they want but until he's taking hits and making cuts in a real game then coming back 7 days later and doing it again, I'm skeptical.
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08-28-2023, 01:29 PM #147
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08-28-2023, 01:38 PM #148
I don't mind the experiment, I try some new analytical chit of year, but not in my most expensive league. Lol.
Good luck. I do really like Elijah Moore this year. Jk Dobbins is now or never. I believe he's
Supremely talented and running qbs should open up the run game, but for some reason, even when healthy, they've never seemed to trust him there.
Also if league rewards points for return yards, rice could end up wr3/flex imo.Ol' 71st street. The devil that birthed me.
606 G0D.
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08-28-2023, 01:38 PM #149
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08-28-2023, 01:42 PM #150
No return yards. LOL. It had to be this league because of the passing-friendly QB stats and my draft position at 7. I had to hope that Kelce fell (his ADP is 5 right now) in the first to even start it off. If I was anywhere but the middle of the first, I wouldn't be able to count on Kelce falling or Mahomes still being there in the second (unless it's in a less passing-friendly league where no QB is worth a <4th pick, like 4pt TDs or 0.02 per passing yard / pt per 50).
I've never been a huge Eli Moore fan, but in the 13th, he fell 3 or 4 rounds past where I expected him to go, so the value is there. Supposedly, he's put in a lot of work with Deshaun in the offseason, but the Browns were a trainwreck in the preseason, so I guess that spooked some people. JK should ball out because it's his contract year. He was my best choice for keeper either way, so I didn't have a choice with him.
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