Not seeing a decent rally this month would be a huge break from historical norms eh
Pretty sure we almost never don't see a rally in December
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12-06-2022, 11:03 AM #1471
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12-06-2022, 11:18 AM #1472
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This is really meaningful sell so far this week.
There is real selling in financials/energy.
SP has to hold 3900 for bulls this week otherwise no bueno.
also just food for thought.
there massive move being built into CPI/FOMC next week. (I am talking 150-200 points implied) the same shiit we get every time data is coming / huge squeeze or huge dump.
so this selling is either trap going into next week or **** gonna get real and it goes 3700-3750.
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12-06-2022, 12:38 PM #1473
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12-06-2022, 12:51 PM #1474
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Market rejected that trend line resistance all year.
just happens to be 200DMA as well.
that being said without going below 3900. nobody has traction here.
its going to be absolute toss up what happens next week.
as for bear market being over. only way that would happen if SP hit 4300 and stayed there.
zero chance in hell that we see that. would be easiest short of life. 4300+
don't even ask what happens next year...I think this years low won't hold next year.
market is basically pointing to recession sometime next year.
you can see it in crude and bank stocks.
wti is getting smoked.
could be $60ish soon.Last edited by Carbonfibre; 12-06-2022 at 12:59 PM.
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12-06-2022, 01:46 PM #1475
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12-06-2022, 01:54 PM #1476
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take this with grain of salt
all banks last year December 2021 predicted SP 500 to finish Dec 2022 around 4500-4700...some even had as high as 5100. Think only one bank predicted Dec 2022 at like 4300.
this week those same banks are predicting 2023 Dec market will be at 4000. (highest prediction is 4400 / lowest 3800)
which means two things
we get recession some time next year market goes 3400 ish and eventually bottoms
or
market trades all year in 3700-4200 range.
both of these scenarios are absolute brutal considering you're going no where. (if you had to pick obviously the next time market hits low, that would be the dip to buy of course)
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12-06-2022, 02:07 PM #1477
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12-06-2022, 02:13 PM #1478
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Oh absolutely.
That fed balance sheet has 3-4$ trillion to get all that free liquidity out after covid pumping.
The only thing is how far more.
Question becomes do all the stocks have to go before covid printer pump.
Does apple need to be $80 and so on...
I looked at SBUX...
so consensus is $92-98 fair value.
your short should work.
basically sbux gave really strong guidance for next year....8ish percent revenue growth and hence why stock has been pumping.Last edited by Carbonfibre; 12-06-2022 at 02:24 PM.
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12-06-2022, 02:38 PM #1479
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12-06-2022, 03:01 PM #1480
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12-06-2022, 03:42 PM #1481
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12-06-2022, 04:29 PM #1482
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One thing I am watching as it develops is the convergence of the 50WMA and 200WMA on the SP500/SPY.
We are currently in another strong reaction off the 50WMA in this bear market, with this most recent rally bouncing strongly off the 200WMA.
Looking back at the last 2 times where the 50WMA crossed over the 200WMA occurred in 2008 and 2001. Here's how that played out:
2008
A strong bounce off 200WMA, reaction against downtrending 50WMA, crossover, then 49% drop
2001
Looking a little bit different, with a few weeks spent below the 200WMA, and approaching the 50WMA a few times, but ultimately a 38% from the crossover point until bottoming out. Granted one of those sharp legs down was the environment of fear and uncertainty directly after 9/11
So, if we continuing to trend downwards over the next several weeks I will be very interested to see the action as we near the next crossover point.
No predictions, things are a little too wacky at the macro level for me to fully read into. I am a little more than 50% cash in my taxable account and selling CSPs, CCs from time to time. Haven't rearranged anything in retirement accounts.
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12-06-2022, 04:29 PM #1483
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12-06-2022, 05:34 PM #1484
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lmao its not like some magically light will trigger "recession is official" lets drill more.
market can move freely, at end of day its game of probability...you know something called normal distribution curve
atm don't have to live under rock to know that its needs more data (Jerome said last week that Fed is not pleased how forecasting of inflation by professionals has gone shocker water is wet....just like how inflation is transitory , now fed is mad that unemployment is not going up etc)
this is also first time in long time that legit tail risk exists due to geo issues 1. Russia/Ukraine war 2. chance that China goes after Taiwan. (those things are not priced in and nobody is going to even try cause you know hedging is expensive as hell, nobody wants to take that risk on unless you are going to be buying sp 1000 puts where banks/dealers will laugh at you as you burn money away)
90-95 percent of trading is done by algos
bunch of algos are setup for next week CPI/FOMC either buy or sell depending on what they are programmed to trigger
Extremely difficult/impossible to predict week/month ahead.
Next week December opex (monthly) is absolute monster in size..(the quarter ends always tend to be)
This is where 60% of all hedging that is done in market on index and equity level is going away.
What they will roll forward and to what strikes well who the hell knows.Last edited by Carbonfibre; 12-06-2022 at 06:00 PM.
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12-07-2022, 10:44 AM #1485
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word is that Carvana is about to go bankrupt.
now there is rumor AMC is finally dead too.
what next Gamestop?
could you imagine with all the retail holding GME. (suicide rates would go up hard on GME)
they fleeced the shiit out of retail 2 years and counting Citadel just cleaned them out.
these charts are legit criminal (coming to finance textbook in few years)
CVNA is nutsssssss
gme once in life time squeeze
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12-07-2022, 11:11 AM #1486
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12-07-2022, 12:35 PM #1487
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12-07-2022, 01:23 PM #1488
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12-07-2022, 01:32 PM #1489
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12-07-2022, 02:01 PM #1490
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12-07-2022, 05:01 PM #1491
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12-07-2022, 09:31 PM #1492
Random question do bonds being traded on various markets/bond funds that are publicly traded price in a rate hike within 24 hours of the interest rate change from the fed? Say Jpow decides December he’s doing a 1% hike(never gonna happen) do bonds essentially drop in value like 1% then keep trading business as usual?
Fitness connoisseur
0.4 mg of party's over wake the FK up!
"the personification of greatness"
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12-08-2022, 05:05 AM #1493
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12-08-2022, 09:02 AM #1494
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12-08-2022, 09:19 AM #1495
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12-08-2022, 10:33 AM #1496
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12-08-2022, 12:12 PM #1497
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12-08-2022, 01:58 PM #1498
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12-08-2022, 04:57 PM #1499
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12-08-2022, 10:11 PM #1500
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