Which is not what it said.
The sentence dealing with that clearly indicates it may be closer to that than to sars or mers.
Yes, it may be closer to 0.1% than to 10% or 36%
You claimed "The 2017/18 season had 92000 deaths."
Might want to check those numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm
Yeah I'm sure that all schools and colleges and sports and most businesses canceled and closed for weeks on end does nothing...
Good God man.
So you're saying we need to start quarantining for real and not half ass. Interesting.
What do you suggest we do to crack down and make this quarantine actually work? Make grocery stores trunk delivery only? Prohibit walking on sidewalks?
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Thread: Corona
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04-06-2020, 07:41 AM #661
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04-06-2020, 08:00 AM #662
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:thumbsup: gif
You claimed "The 2017/18 season had 92000 deaths."
Might want to check those numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season...-2017-2018.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Yeah I'm sure that all schools and colleges and sports and most businesses canceled and closed for weeks on end does nothing... Good God man.
So you're saying we need to start quarantining for real and not half ass. Interesting.
What do you suggest we do to crack down and make this quarantine actually work? Make grocery stores trunk delivery only? Prohibit walking on sidewalks?
.... but for instance having the limited stores that are open limit there hours so the only place people can shop is packed to the f*cking gills every time.... seems pretty f*cking stupid.
And strong edit... if you don't want to discuss this with me.... don't. But don't tell me to leave asshat.
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04-06-2020, 08:02 AM #663
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"The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths"
From the link you just posted.
Estimated of course. Over the course of a full season
Whoa there...what is the federally mandated quarantine?
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04-06-2020, 08:10 AM #664
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The POTUS has recently stated he is considering a federal mandate. I don't think this should happen.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...ticut-n1171186
Several states are already under mandated quarantine.
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04-06-2020, 08:11 AM #665
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04-06-2020, 08:16 AM #666
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Right. There is no federal mandate, and I don't think there will be.
Note that the article you linked is already 9 days old.
And it says
"WASHINGTON —President Donald Trump backed away from earlier comments Saturday that he was considering enforcing a quarantine in the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut area after state officials questioned whether Trump had the authority to implement a quarantine and accused him of creating confusion."
I'm not sure you are reading these links you provide lol. Don't get your news from MSM headlines. That's just not a reliable way of doing things
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04-06-2020, 08:19 AM #667
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04-06-2020, 08:24 AM #668
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I said I don't think we should have a federal mandate. I never said there was one. It's being considered and that's scary as f*ck. States have already made these mandates and it isn't a far stretch for the POTUS to reconsider. We both know the POTUS is wishy washy as f*ck.
So if you could stop misrepresenting what I say, that would be fantastic.
I do too, but I get weary of people that want to catch you in a gotcha moment, especially when they intentionally misrepresent what you said in a feeble attempt to make you look stupid. I, in earnest, have an interest in the numbers.
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04-06-2020, 08:27 AM #669
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I don't think we should nuke Brazil over this. lol
There was never any real threat of a federally mandated quarantine. The only real reference to it is 9+ days old, only referenced a very small hotspot, and was already walked back. There's no reason to even be talking about it at this point, it wasn't goign to happen didn't happen and won't happen
I agree, intentionally misrepresenting closer to 0.1 than to 10 as meaning close to 0.1 is not helpful
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04-06-2020, 08:27 AM #670
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See... common ground. I knew we would eventually find it.
There was never any real threat of a federally mandated quarantine. The only real reference to it is 9+ days old, only referenced a very small hotspot, and was already walked back. There's no reason to even be talking about it at this point, it wasn't goign to happen didn't happen and won't happen
I agree, intentionally misrepresenting closer to 0.1 than to 10 as meaning close to 0.1 is not helpful
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04-06-2020, 08:29 AM #671
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04-06-2020, 08:38 AM #672
Too true. Just saw the stat's for my state and the 19-20 flu season has killed 91 people and covid is at 335 and counting...
On the upside Gilead has a potential cure (not that anti malarial cocktail BS either) in clinical trials and it's way further along than others. Like a year ahead of the pack.
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04-06-2020, 08:39 AM #673
Here's some sobering info. I understand that flu has multiple strains and a flu vaccine is typically for 4 strains *predicted in advance* to be most common ones by watching the previous Southern Hemisphere flu season - so will always be a bit hit and miss, but the 2017 to 2018 US flu season the vaccine was described retrospectively as "a good match" and the efficacy (vaccine effectiveness) was 40%.
"This means the flu vaccine reduced a person’s overall risk of having to seek medical care at a doctor’s office for flu illness by 40%".
40% is regarded as good for a flu vaccine
Even though I hope for better % for a Covid vaccine (given very few strains currently) let's not see vaccination as a magic bullet. Given how contagious this is, for herd immunity to work we'd need a very high proportion of population vaccination and previous exposure.
(Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season..._1534865908403)
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04-06-2020, 10:17 AM #674
Last edited by mtpockets; 04-06-2020 at 10:24 AM.
𝓐𝓲𝓻 𝓕𝓸𝓻𝓬𝓮 𝓥𝓮𝓽𝓮𝓻𝓪𝓷 1976 - 1999 - 𝓒𝓪𝓷𝓷𝓪𝓫𝓲𝓼 𝓔𝓷𝓽𝓱𝓾𝓼𝓲𝓪𝓼𝓽 𝓼𝓲𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓽𝓱𝓮 1960'𝓼
ᖇᗴ丅Ꭵᖇᗴᗪ ᗩ丅 40 ᑕᖇᗴᗯ - ᔕᗝᑕᎥᗩᒪ ᗪᎥᔕ丅ᗩᑎᑕᎥᑎǤ ᗴ᙭ᑭᗴᖇ丅 - ᒪᎥᐯᎥᑎǤ 丅ᕼᗴ ᗪᖇᗴᗩᗰ
ƚo| ɒ ꙅɿɘʞʞuꟻ bᴎɒ ɿɘʞʞuꟻ ꙅᴎuoᴎoɿq ɿɘbᴎɘǫ ɘʜƚ ɘꙅu I
𝕀 𝕕𝕠𝕟'𝕥 𝕒𝕝𝕨𝕒𝕪𝕤 𝕒𝕘𝕣𝕖𝕖 𝕨𝕚𝕥𝕙 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕞𝕖𝕞𝕖𝕤 𝕀 𝕡𝕠𝕤𝕥
🄸 🅃🄴🄻🄻 🄸🅃 🄻🄸🄺🄴 🄸🅃 🄸🅂, 🄸🄵 🅈🄾🅄 🅆🄰🄽🅃 🅂🄼🄾🄺🄴 🄱🄻🄾🅆🄽 🅄🄿 🅈🄾🅄🅁 🄰🅂🅂 🄾🅁 🅂🄾🄼🄴🅃🄷🄸🄽🄶 🅂🅄🄶🄰🅁 🄲🄾🄰🅃🄴🄳. 🄸 🅂🅄🄶🄶🄴🅂🅃 🅈🄾🅄 🄶🄴🅃 🄰 🄷🄾🄾🄺🄴🅁 🄰🄽🄳 🄰 🄿🄾🅆🄳🄴🅁🄴🄳 🄳🄾🄽🅄🅃
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04-06-2020, 11:04 AM #675
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04-06-2020, 11:08 AM #676
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I don't think there is any question that the lock downs have a serious economic cost. In the cold light of reality, individual human life doesn't have infinite value, but likewise that value is not zero. The U.S. Office of Management and Budget puts the value of a human life in the range of $7 million to $9 million. For the sake of argument then the cost of an unmitigated epidemic in the US is somewhere around 8 Million * 2.24 Million (Estimated U.S. death toll with no action taken) = 17.92 Trillion. If we manage the worst case estimate from the White House of 240,000 dead then the cost is 1.92 Trillion for a savings of 16 Trillion. So even from a pure dollars and cents perspective any response that costs less than 16 Trillion is worth it.
NOTE: The above argument ignores all morality and any intrinsic value of human life related to this decision.
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04-06-2020, 11:10 AM #677
Well, a lot has been learned since the lockdown started. One thing of immeasurable value is the discovery that sheep like playing on play area merry go rounds / roundabouts. A "revolution" for farming?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wal...und-roundabout
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04-06-2020, 11:12 AM #678
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There is also the unknown of what the economic impact of unmitigated sickness would cost. If we did nothing or did very little "wash your hands and stay home when obviously sick" and it spread like wildfire and a lot of people got sick etc, there would be some degree of pullback from a lot of people, things slowing down, businesses doing some things differently, market falling...so it's all a matter of degree and shades of gray.
We'd never 'do nothing' we'd just 'do less' and the economic impact of the pandemic could be felt to some degree as a consequence even if we didn't administratively shut things down.
Likely specifics will be argued and models will be made and countries will be compared etc etc for years and decades to come.
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04-06-2020, 11:20 AM #679
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04-06-2020, 12:19 PM #680
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has coronavirus, has been taken to intensive care
𝓐𝓲𝓻 𝓕𝓸𝓻𝓬𝓮 𝓥𝓮𝓽𝓮𝓻𝓪𝓷 1976 - 1999 - 𝓒𝓪𝓷𝓷𝓪𝓫𝓲𝓼 𝓔𝓷𝓽𝓱𝓾𝓼𝓲𝓪𝓼𝓽 𝓼𝓲𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓽𝓱𝓮 1960'𝓼
ᖇᗴ丅Ꭵᖇᗴᗪ ᗩ丅 40 ᑕᖇᗴᗯ - ᔕᗝᑕᎥᗩᒪ ᗪᎥᔕ丅ᗩᑎᑕᎥᑎǤ ᗴ᙭ᑭᗴᖇ丅 - ᒪᎥᐯᎥᑎǤ 丅ᕼᗴ ᗪᖇᗴᗩᗰ
ƚo| ɒ ꙅɿɘʞʞuꟻ bᴎɒ ɿɘʞʞuꟻ ꙅᴎuoᴎoɿq ɿɘbᴎɘǫ ɘʜƚ ɘꙅu I
𝕀 𝕕𝕠𝕟'𝕥 𝕒𝕝𝕨𝕒𝕪𝕤 𝕒𝕘𝕣𝕖𝕖 𝕨𝕚𝕥𝕙 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝕞𝕖𝕞𝕖𝕤 𝕀 𝕡𝕠𝕤𝕥
🄸 🅃🄴🄻🄻 🄸🅃 🄻🄸🄺🄴 🄸🅃 🄸🅂, 🄸🄵 🅈🄾🅄 🅆🄰🄽🅃 🅂🄼🄾🄺🄴 🄱🄻🄾🅆🄽 🅄🄿 🅈🄾🅄🅁 🄰🅂🅂 🄾🅁 🅂🄾🄼🄴🅃🄷🄸🄽🄶 🅂🅄🄶🄰🅁 🄲🄾🄰🅃🄴🄳. 🄸 🅂🅄🄶🄶🄴🅂🅃 🅈🄾🅄 🄶🄴🅃 🄰 🄷🄾🄾🄺🄴🅁 🄰🄽🄳 🄰 🄿🄾🅆🄳🄴🅁🄴🄳 🄳🄾🄽🅄🅃
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04-06-2020, 12:26 PM #681
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04-06-2020, 12:28 PM #682
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04-06-2020, 04:17 PM #683
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04-06-2020, 11:14 PM #684
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Current research has now estimated a CFR of .66%. This is down from 3.4%, 2% and 1% of previous studies.
Study
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327
Media coverage
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/healt...ate/index.html
https://thehill.com/changing-america...ate-lower-than
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04-07-2020, 03:49 AM #685The study found that it could take weeks for people to recover from coronavirus, which could magnify potential health care shortages: The longer it takes for people to get better, the longer they may need precious hospital space and resources.
The average time from onset of symptoms to hospital discharge was about 25 days, researchers found, although patients might not have been hospitalized during the early days of their illness. Among those who succumbed to the virus, death came about 18 days after people started showing symptoms."it's likely one of us will have to spend some days alone"
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04-07-2020, 05:56 AM #686
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Reported CFR's are what started the hysterical meltdowns so I do believe it is important. Only recently has the CFR been placed this low and is based on estimates of asymptomatic cases (which is still likely to go up). As stated by professions, cfr is most likely to decrease as more people are tested and estimates of infected are increased.
As far as I know, yes, the real concern is the impact on the health care system. How much of who we can care for is also largely impacted by lock downs across the nation. Studies show that infection rates skyrocket with chronic under staffing in hospitals and care diminishes. Information still coming out though and I still believe the over reaction is still hurting more than helping.Last edited by acrawlingchaos; 04-07-2020 at 06:19 AM.
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04-07-2020, 06:20 AM #687
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So only 6-7 times deadlier than seasonal flu.
Could be worse, that's for sure.
Of course, there's also no telling how many covid deaths have not been attributed to covid. When we look back in the future and use the modeling estimates we use for the flu that result in death numbers FAR higher than actual positive tests, it may look even different...
Example:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
"An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone.
We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]
A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway"
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04-07-2020, 06:34 AM #688
I think that the mortality of the virus will be below 1%, likely by a significant amount when it’s all over and they can get a better idea of the spread. I believe that anyone in an urban area who isn’t taking the most extreme measures will likely be infected whether they realize it or not. The death toll won’t take into account all of the deaths from other causes that could have been prevented without the pandemic. As mentioned above when the healthcare system is put under a burden like this, it negatively impacts the care across the board. Physical trauma, and other diseases/conditions might also result in death as the level of care is impacted by the virus response. Severe burns have a high mortality risk from secondary infection for example, don’t want to have a bunch of compromised skin while in a hospital with limited/reused PPE for example. Not going to get the best emergency treatment if everyone is scrambling to save people crashing from covid.
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04-07-2020, 06:44 AM #689
Ideally an educated and rational society would work together to slow the transmission of this disease, recommendations would be put forth and each individual would work those into thier lives with no use of force necessary. I wish there was a more Libertarian answer but these are the times when collectivist action results in the greatest gain for each individual in the society. 'Don't spread an illness' seems like an universal prerogative. I see "Life" as our first and most important right. Collectivist action to protect that right seems almost... Libertarian.
I'm much more discontented by the way the government is handling the economic downfall especially when it comes to huge loans, bailouts and such. I believe money needs to be spent to save the 70-80% of people that live paycheck to paycheck. And, I feel it's reasonable to assume small businesses do not have the resources to deal with 2-3 months of lost revenue. But, I'm not really shedding tears for the companies that are yielding billions in revenue. A company should be self-sufficient when their cash-flow rivals the size of a small country's tax income, not reliant on their lobbying infrastructure to secure bailouts."it's likely one of us will have to spend some days alone"
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04-07-2020, 07:11 AM #690
Does anyone have any relevant data on the drug combination that the president references daily?
I am not trying to debate anything other( no politics) than if it works or not.
Thanks in advance.There is an unspoken thing, we are iron brothers and sisters, we are to support each other and...It is our duty to support our brothers and sisters in the iron game!
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