Overview of vaccine prospects for those curious: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...nzYroyuQ2i3FW8
Some promising appearing treatment data form a Gilead trial got leaked... I'd wait another week or so for more data on it to put out before judging it.
No major updates on treatment otherwise though I think it's becoming increasingly accepted that anticoagulation plays a role in therapy.
Regarding diagnostic testing, there is some promising data of a new test from Rutgers that is doing really well using saliva, and there was a small study showing greater sensitivity of throat washings compared to nasopharyngeal swabs. Still remains to be seen how antibody testing plays out.
Very worried about a surge in patients when the country opens back up. There are many places that still do not have adequate testing/PPE, which is a shame several months into this.
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Thread: COVID-19, let's put updates here
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04-17-2020, 05:09 AM #151
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04-17-2020, 10:08 AM #152
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New Study (4/15/2020) on viral shedding
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5
And this on chemosensory dysfunction
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...1002/alr.22579Last edited by boo99; 04-17-2020 at 11:30 PM.
NASM CPT
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04-19-2020, 06:16 AM #153
A chilling account of the failures of our initial COVID-19 testing. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/co...27oVPXO-jiEHsA Of note, I used to work in a genetics lab where I did a lot of PCR (likely >10,000 PCR reactions in total) as well as methods development; in my mind there is absolutely no excuse for this to have taken more than 1 week to find the cause of the problem and fix it once it was identified.
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04-19-2020, 12:17 PM #154
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Just a radio report over here and not data but.
Reportably Oxford University are nearing human trials for a vaccine they have "80%" faith in working. Potentially a few million vacinnes workable by September. But likely to take a few months longer for all the procedures to make legally available5 day full body crew
FMH Crew, Sandbagging Mike Tuscherer Wannabee
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04-19-2020, 02:51 PM #155
That would be amazing if true. Fingers crossed. The one good thing about having such a widespread pandemic is that it makes it much easier to test a vaccine as there is a much large sample size to test efficacy.
Here's a study indicating ACE inhibitors and ARBs in people with hypertension are indeed helpful; thus this supports the various recommendations in place not to stop them if you are currently on them. https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/...Gzarkb57uv3mQ4
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04-22-2020, 05:31 AM #156
More updates:
We now have an FDA approved at home test: https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/21/2...mpY9P_uQjyuk6Q Of note I am still weary of any testing at this time that is not independently validated. This test is a nasal swab only; I am VERY dubious of this having decent sensitivity.
Looks like there were a few deaths in Santa Clara much earlier than previously though, with testing showing 2 individuals who died in their home 2/6/2020 actually had COVID-19. This gives an indication this may have been in circulation quite a bit earlier than previously realized. https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19...YOZsNdE4hHAaFM
I had not seen this link previously but it has tabs covering projections, social distancing, testing, and more; definitely nice to look through. https://www.domo.com/covid19/daily-pulse/#overview
There are now NIH guidelines that will be updated as more evidence accumulates.
There are a handful of studies out there currently that are hot topics (HCQ/Azi increasing risk of death, high prevalence of antibodies in California, different strains in New York and California with New York being more severe); these are all awaiting peer review or have major flaws so I am not posting/discussing them.
At this point we still don't know how well immunity is conferred from having the virus, I'm still not convinced any of the antibody tests are truly accurate, and we've yet to find convincing evidence that any of the medications out there are effective, but there are hundreds of trials underway so we should continue to get more data on this in the coming weeks.
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04-23-2020, 04:17 AM #157
People who have access to a pulse oximeter (there are phone apps that can do this but I don't know how accurate they are) can use them to help determine if they need to go to a hospital. Otherwise, if somebody notices they are breathing more quickly or more deeply than usual it would probably be worth getting checked out. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/o...te9_DioMsDw5vI
I did not listen to this but I was told it was good: https://www.nejm.org/action/showMedi...5kaLQj0T7H4TYM
There seems to be an excess of deaths in many places not attributed to COVID-19. Some of these may be unknown COVID-19 but some are likely due to people delaying care for other medical conditions. https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...vUA-LFvBlnvDPY
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04-24-2020, 04:34 PM #158
Some hope that a vaccine could be effective: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...gQpYjCHyFzppk#
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04-25-2020, 12:14 PM #159
Really nice overview of the ventilator discussion regarding the different respiratory presentations seen with COVID-19: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...iKxR0uL_Lr2rGY
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04-27-2020, 04:18 PM #160
Lots of holes can likely be poked in this but that not withstanding it estimates the presentation of COVID-19 has a heritability of 50% (essentially meaning that 50% of the variability in clinical presentation is due to genetics): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...dFJVMSER3b4GAs
This is a long but nice article on the different responses between Seattle and New York to COVID-19 and how science/politics/public policy influenced this: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...CGYBqgox9o4eKs
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04-29-2020, 02:49 AM #161
A commentary on pseudoscience & COVID-19: https://www.nature.com/articles/d415...yaxusxWyI-hvmE
COVID-19 - A reminder to reason: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...pU1adb5CQ7_xrQ
Overview on vaccine development with good illustrations for teaching - https://www.nature.com/articles/d415...t9E2BcNDvufR5s
It will be really interesting to see what happens with case counts as the country reopens. Keep in mind given a 5-7 day incubation period and then another 7-10 days before illness gets really bad we won't start seeing the real impact of the change for a few weeks.
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04-29-2020, 11:16 AM #162
Some thought that being at a higher altitude typically may help protect you from COVID-19 severity: https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...GPI-wlI4KZbxwA
Lots of press about this drug currently; this study indicates it is likely not a miracle drug (but it still could be helpful when given earlier): https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...mTznUX5PRM6lL8
An article describing some aspects of doing an antibody survey for COVID-19: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...-DsuSu-rZaRkU8
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04-30-2020, 01:19 PM #163
Some more articles that people may find interesting:
What the coronavirus crisis reveals about american medicine: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...L7VRY6xS4IUgBw
More indication that people who are "reinfected" actually just test positive from dead virus particles: https://www.newsweek.com/south-korea...gUS6rHlp8WJhBs
In this study every patient developed IgG antibodies giving more hope for feasibility of antibody tests: https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...WLKs09xyjR8HC4
5 questions that scientists and doctors are racing to answer (I don't feel these are the most important questions but it is what it is): https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...rc=nl_daily202
Nice looking page on how coronavirus mutates & spreads: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...A6BHfphVzp0tJM
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04-30-2020, 05:03 PM #164
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05-01-2020, 06:46 AM #165
I'm skeptical it is accurate. Personally for anyone else seeing this I'd wait at least a few more weeks to get more reliable data if these antibody tests are reliable.
Nice quick read showing COVID-19 is much worse than the typical flu: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...G-iq6QKlvMFo4M
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05-01-2020, 08:46 AM #166
it actually the most accurate test we have thus far. its an immunoglobulin serology test taking up to 5 days to process. they had a 99% positive outcome for accuracy in results. its not the bs finger prick lol, its testing multiple markers for antibodies. ill get even more as well. I was also very very sick in early march. nothing ive ever experienced before in my life....
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05-01-2020, 09:10 AM #167
Even if it is the most accurate we don't know for sure it is accurate. I have not seen any independent data for any of the many tests in production to prove that a positive result is not simply due to cross-reactivity with the common strains of coronavirus. So you may have antibodies but without that data it's possible the antibodies are not for COVID-19. Additionally, we don't know yet if the COVID-19 antibodies are neutralizing and if so at what level immunity is conferred. Assuming the test has a high sensitivity then you can feel confident you haven't had COVID-19 if you don't have any antibodies (though I don't know the true sensitivity) but if you do have antibodies that is pretty much impossible to interpret at this time.
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05-01-2020, 12:52 PM #168
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Released yesterday
Part 1: The Future of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned from Pandemic Influenza
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/def...oint-part1.pdfNASM CPT
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05-01-2020, 09:01 PM #169
thoughts???
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bXWGxhd7ic
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05-02-2020, 02:23 AM #170
I'm sorry, I don't have time to watch that video. I watch all youtube videos at 2x speed but even then it would be 27 minutes. Is there a specific part you are curious about or a general message the video put forth that you are questioning?
For you and everyone, here is a link where independent data of the various tests out there is going to be compared: https://finddx.shinyapps.io/COVID19DxData/
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05-05-2020, 02:49 AM #171
Apparently COVID-19 may have been in circulation in France in late December, a month earlier than previously thought: https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...cQ4tg8#fig0003
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05-10-2020, 03:22 AM #172
It has been several days, let's do another update.
- It has been very hard to stay on top of all of the literature. Additionally, tons of things are being put out there as pre-prints and it's unclear how much they can be trusted. Several papers have had to be retracted: https://retractionwatch.com/2020/05/...92sSz76M0Tzj48 In a sense we are all having to use a "new type" of scientific process for assimilating/sharing information. It'll be interesting to see if any changes to peer review and scientific dissemination come from this, particularly when the next pandemic inevitably hits in the future.
- Here is a large analysis indicating that when the public wears face masks it does indeed make a big difference: https://rs-delve.github.io/reports/2...dQV4fpujbWWE0s
- An article on the possible dangers of a vaccine that is not thoroughly tested for safety: https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...l6Le3M0nxlRgd0
- Nice graph here showing the time course of likely effectiveness of various diagnostic tests: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...MBmMw9zCS4h1yo
Bigger picture: with the country reopening now to some degree in many places we are without question going to start seeing an increase in cases. I really hope everyone tries to do things as responsibly as possible (wear a mask, socially distance, try to avoid touching things, minimize time going out in public). Still no research to indicate any great treatments unfortunately. We are starting to see a lot of "weird" clinical presentations that may be attributed to COVID-19 but no overwhelmingly large changes to indicate big changes in the overall pathology. Still lots to learn at this point.
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05-11-2020, 02:27 AM #173
Just found this: here's a link attempting to calculate the effective Rnaught in each state; it will be interesting to follow as things open up more: https://rt.live/?fbclid=IwAR16aBcs6L...VVLYbM5VSRyyVE
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05-18-2020, 12:20 AM #174
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I was against wearing a mask from the beginning and have refused to and I’m happy someone from the medical community has chimed in
https://www.technocracy.news/blayloc...o-the-healthy/NASM CPT
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RIP my friend D4K
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05-18-2020, 02:11 AM #175
This specific article has been discussed in physician groups; almost all of us very strongly disagree with this. I posted this above but a nice analysis showing face masks do work from a public health standpoint: https://rs-delve.github.io/reports/2...dQV4fpujbWWE0s
To address some of the specific points in that article:
- most people are not going to wear an N95 mask all day long; most people will be wearing surgical masks or cloth masks. That said, may people can wear N95s all day long and not suffer hypercapnia. Lots of physicians in other parts of the world who work on tuberculosis wards do this regularly
- rebreathing the virus is not going to cause you to become more sick. That's just so incredibly dumb that I have a hard time believing anything else he says. He is a neurosurgeon with clearly poor understanding of infectious disease. If the virus is already inside you, replicating significantly, and you are coughing, the simple act of coughing is going to cause some of the virus to go up into your nasal passages as coughing is going to aerosolize the virus to some degree and not all of that will be expelled from the body. The simple act of breathing is not going to expel a significant amount of the virus.
Here's a ******** post from Jennifer Kasten, a prominent physician-scientist who has worked hard to dispel many of these myths that I'll copy/paste below: https://www.********.com/jenniferkas...048?__tn__=K-R
Spoiler!
My recommendation to everyone; practice wearing a mask in your own home so you can get used to it such that you are not touching your face a lot to adjust the mask, and then wear one when you go out in public, particularly if you will be going to public places (ie, the grocery store).
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05-18-2020, 09:30 AM #176
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^^Thank you for all the links above
Always valuable to read other input on the masks
My biggest concern as a personal trainer is reopening our gyms and I know they will try and enforce masks which is gong to get into many heated arguments.
No one I know or train who lifts/bodybuilds or powerlifts will put on a mask. Ain’t gonna happen. It would and will totally screw up the workout.
The clients, my friends who powerlift and myself will not ever wear masks while lifting. Breathing would be compromised and so will the workout. I can’t imagine anyone doing Tabata without passing out with a mask on which a lot of my clients love.NASM CPT
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05-18-2020, 11:15 AM #177
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05-18-2020, 12:06 PM #178
Yeah, that's much trickier. As I've said before I'm not really commenting on policy issues in this thread, just the scientific aspects of things. Wearing masks will help protect everyone in general but if it makes exercise less safe (or increases the risk of self-innoculation due to needing to adjust the mask frequently with likely facial contortions due to lifting), then you may be able to make an effective argument in gym settings they could do more harm than good.
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05-18-2020, 12:58 PM #179There is confusion about why initially masks were NOT recommended, but now they are. In early March the world experienced a catastrophic shortage in Personal Protective Equipment, most of which was made in China. Frontline health care workers were barebacking it, despite caring for patients suffering from a lethal infectious disease. Many became infected, and some died. Hospitals rationed equipment like it was the elixir of life. We came up with clever ways to reuse and sterilize masks. We all remembered fondly the days when we just *threw the extra gloves which come out of the box all glommed together away* like we were glove billionaires or something.
Against that backdrop the public was advised not to wear masks. That was not because masks weren’t safe, effective, or a great idea. It was because masks were RATIONED where they were needed most.
World Health Organization:
"There is currently no evidence that wearing a mask (whether medical or other types) by healthy persons in the wider community setting, including universal community masking, can prevent them from infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19."
By contrast, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States has recently recommended everyone wear a (cloth) mask. However, this is to prevent infected people passing on the infection, not to prevent the wearer getting infected.
So, you can see why there is confusion over the necessity/advantages of mask use.Last edited by CommitmentRulz; 05-18-2020 at 01:10 PM.
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05-18-2020, 02:35 PM #180
I agree with you. I think they actually stated it for the reason that she listed (to help prevent hoarding as healthcare workers were in more dire need), but nonetheless they said it, stupidly I might add, and at one point the CDC even suggested cloth masks would be effective for healthcare workers, which I'm still very irritated about. There was never any valid reason to think masks wouldn't be helpful for this coronavirus when we used them in hospital settings for the common coronaviruses we see all the time.
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