**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -IV-

[drewbagel423]

I think people are waiting for Friday's earnings before putting their money down. On the plus side the market has held up fine today without Apple doing much.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-in-march.html

Also March job #'s Thursday and PPI/CPI Thurs/Fri too.

http://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

EDIT:

Holy crap, how about this trade, quoted from someone I follow on Twitter.

"Google (GOOG) large spread trades a day before earnings with 1,150 January 2013 $575 puts sold at $33.10 to buy 1,150 January 2013 $635/$725 call spreads at $34.10, net $1 debit for a spread that could pay out $90. The trade would turn $115,000 into $10,350,000 if GOOG closes above $725 next January."

[NumberOneStunna]

Hoping market closes at lows of day, would be nice for some short positions tomorrow

[swingracex]

Took a loss on that aapl fiasco but it was house money from aapl last week so its good...time to reload the rest of it and pepper my angus for monday lol...also looking for small plays to close the week

[Misc_Lurker]

Anyone see Nokia's dip. dayum. 15%

[Valjean]

Also March job #'s Thursday and PPI/CPI Thurs/Fri too.

http://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

EDIT:

Holy crap, how about this trade, quoted from someone I follow on Twitter.

"Google (GOOG) large spread trades a day before earnings with 1,150 January 2013 $575 puts sold at $33.10 to buy 1,150 January 2013 $635/$725 call spreads at $34.10, net $1 debit for a spread that could pay out $90. The trade would turn $115,000 into $10,350,000 if GOOG closes above $725 next January."

Ehhh...it's a synthetic combo spread. I could make that trade cost $1 if I tried, but the risk is still as if one were buying loads of the stock on 1000x margin.

[johnnycash123]

Finally sprung for the quad mount and set it all up today. The loner on the right is a 22" touch screen. 8)

Holy **** thats cool as fuk

[NumberOneStunna]

I've been all over the netflix fluctuations. betcha it shoots back up to 115-118 range and dumps slowly.. been pretty damn consistent.

I can say with 90% certainty this will be the case. This stock is notorious for suckering short sellers and squeeze their balls extremely hard. I knew it was going down before right after April 1st, I just forgot about the epic $25 drop it would have. Same with Amazon. Seriously guys, if we bought the monthly 105s for NFLX back on April 1st, we would've made a killing. Now to wait for the next run-up for earnings.

I think people are waiting for Friday's earnings before putting their money down. On the plus side the market has held up fine today without Apple doing much.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-in-march.html

AAPL is being jerked around by hedge funds, it's best to let them have their fun. Today's drop in the morning was also options induced. Once the selling started, masses of calls were closed, causing even more selling.

Took a loss on that aapl fiasco but it was house money from aapl last week so its good...time to reload the rest of it and pepper my angus for monday lol...also looking for small plays to close the week

Markets a zero-sum game brah, win some lose some. Next week we win big . I'm gonna start dabbling in monthlys since there are no weeklys for next week. I have a feeling Google will get pumped like crazy, AAPL may get right on the gravvy train. I'm more or less taking my money to smaller names that move more slow, my work is extremely busy and I can't keep working until 9 or 10pm every single day.

Holy **** thats cool as fuk

[NumberOneStunna]

One last point. If you're interested in playing AAPL tomorrow, see if it can get past the 630 range. Watch the 630 calls very closely, if volume picks up on those as AAPL breaks 630 and holds, you could see a run to 640. A lot of puts are accumulating, closing those will fuel the fire just like the calls being closed yesterday and today added fuel to the drop.

[SameSongandDanc]

ind

[swingracex]

I'm more or less taking my money to smaller names that move more slow, my work is extremely busy and I can't keep working until 9 or 10pm every single day.

im looking for the same thing after aapl reports...
goog reports tomorrow i wonder what effect it might have on aapl's run up to earnings if any...

[MrSilverback]

im looking for the same thing after aapl reports...
goog reports tomorrow i wonder what effect it might have on aapl's run up to earnings if any...

I think GOOG might miss or at the very least by not as stellar as people think. There's more than double the volume going into end of the month puts vs. calls.

[auron990]

I think GOOG might miss or at the very least by not as stellar as people think. There's more than double the volume going into end of the month puts vs. calls.

What are you guys using to track real time options volume?

[adambomb]

Just now realizing this, so the activity/volume among the put and call options can help you determine where the stock price is heading/falling?

[drewbagel423]

I think GOOG might miss or at the very least by not as stellar as people think. There's more than double the volume going into end of the month puts vs. calls.

And right now there's about a 40 point move priced in. That'll take it to 600 or 680.

[snwdevl10]

What do you guys think are the best ways to be long nat gas right now? I have some CPN but looking for more opportunities.

Also, anyone plan on getting in on the ******** IPO action?

[meteoraln]

I don't see how can option volume predict movement on the stock. Call put parity locks the prices of calls, puts, and the underlying stock into an arbitrage free relationship. Any drastic movement in one of the three will imply that the other two will move in such a manner to reduce arbitrage opportunities. I generally regard jumps in option volume as the result of someone else's hedging operation.

[Barn01]

What do you guys think are the best ways to be long nat gas right now? I have some CPN but looking for more opportunities.

Also, anyone plan on getting in on the ******** IPO action?

I'd be more interested in oil than nat gas. Oil is deflating a little after a 20-30% run. Let it come down and then get back in. Natty gas is still a supply and demand problem area if you ask me and it will likely keep prices lower on the supply companies. Oil however is still in high demand and I don't see that changing any time soon.

FB is going to be a day traders dream when it IPO's, I'm not sure I'd be going long in it because there's so much hype around it. However if you're good with options then I'm sure there will be lots of money to be made (and lost)

[Barn01]

I don't see how can option volume predict movement on the stock. Call put parity locks the prices of calls, puts, and the underlying stock into an arbitrage free relationship. Any drastic movement in one of the three will imply that the other two will move in such a manner to reduce arbitrage opportunities. I generally regard jumps in option volume as the result of someone else's hedging operation.

Not really volume but there does seem to be some correlation to the max pain value as an option nears expiration on the higher volume traded stocks.

[NumberOneStunna]

I got in on 50 NFLX Apr.21st 105 calls, when NFLX dipped to below 100. Average cost is about 1.25. Looking for rebound and I'm out.

[cake123]

Can someone explain to me why prices fall when companies have record quarters or profits or earnings etc?

[NumberOneStunna]

I think GOOG might miss or at the very least by not as stellar as people think. There's more than double the volume going into end of the month puts vs. calls.

I have a bad feeling about Google as well. I wouldn't touch the stock nor the options. The premiums are way too expensive and doesn't look like there's nice risk/reward for holding through earnings unless you're writing options. Their expectations were lowered from last earnings collapse so they very well could beat, but they've still got a lot of gray area in some of their revenue generating areas. I'd much rather wait until tomorrow and pick off some major scalps, I sense a few 2-3 baggers.

And right now there's about a 40 point move priced in. That'll take it to 600 or 680.

That's exactly why I wouldn't touch it, most likely won't hit either. Especially since the stock has run-up quite a bit from the mid 620s.

I don't see how can option volume predict movement on the stock. Call put parity locks the prices of calls, puts, and the underlying stock into an arbitrage free relationship. Any drastic movement in one of the three will imply that the other two will move in such a manner to reduce arbitrage opportunities. I generally regard jumps in option volume as the result of someone else's hedging operation.

I use to think about put-call parity and although it plays in the option pricing, it doesn't hold most of the time. There are a few computer traders that scan and trade these kinds of plays and make a killing. A lot of options are traded now a days to profit from the underlying instead of being used as hedging instruments, which I think is kind of bad for those that want to hedge because it makes it a lot more expensive.

I'd be more interested in oil than nat gas. Oil is deflating a little after a 20-30% run. Let it come down and then get back in. Natty gas is still a supply and demand problem area if you ask me and it will likely keep prices lower on the supply companies. Oil however is still in high demand and I don't see that changing any time soon.

FB is going to be a day traders dream when it IPO's, I'm not sure I'd be going long in it because there's so much hype around it. However if you're good with options then I'm sure there will be lots of money to be made (and lost)

I'm patiently waiting for ********. It'll have some nice volatility when it comes out....JUICY!!!!!

[snwdevl10]

I'd be more interested in oil than nat gas. Oil is deflating a little after a 20-30% run. Let it come down and then get back in. Natty gas is still a supply and demand problem area if you ask me and it will likely keep prices lower on the supply companies. Oil however is still in high demand and I don't see that changing any time soon.

FB is going to be a day traders dream when it IPO's, I'm not sure I'd be going long in it because there's so much hype around it. However if you're good with options then I'm sure there will be lots of money to be made (and lost)

Even long term? I'm still a newb so mostly looking at buy and hold

[NumberOneStunna]

I got in on 50 NFLX Apr.21st 105 calls, when NFLX dipped to below 100. Average cost is about 1.25. Looking for rebound and I'm out.

Almost time to get out, 30 more cents then I've gotta work my actual job

[NumberOneStunna]

Almost time to get out, 30 more cents then I've gotta work my actual job

Out my friends, see you guys later when I'm done with meetings.

[meteoraln]

Can someone explain to me why prices fall when companies have record quarters or profits or earnings etc?

The best reason is liquidity. If you hold 1 million shares of a stock, and the stock has an average daily volume of 50,000, you can't get out of your position without moving the market. Moving the market means that your position is big enough where every time you try to sell off a piece, the price drops because you are significantly affecting supply and demand. So how do you sell your 1 million shares?

You can
1) Sell your position very very slowly. With an average daily volume of 50,000, you might be able to get away with selling 5000 share chunks each day without noticeably moving the market. With 1 million shares to go, this could take you 200 business days, or almost a whole year to fully sell your 1 million. With that much time, you're unlikely to be able to predict your selling price. If you sell at higher chunks, you will surely push the price down faster.
2) You can wait for an event that has a large increase in volume. Earnings day is one of those days. Analyst upgrades are another. On positive news, you are given an opportunity to sell to the new buyers that come in. That way, the price will not drop as hard while you dump your position Hence, the spike in volume allows you to liquidate. If you have more to sell than the number of new buyers, you can still move the market downwards. You have decide whether it's better to push the price down 5%, or sell less and hope for another positive event. Once again, holding onto your position to wait for a better price leaves you open to risk. Depending on your situation, this may not be acceptable, especially if you need to liquidate ASAP.

[cake123]

text

Thanks for the response. Will rep off rc

[miabullitt]

Can someone explain to me why prices fall when companies have record quarters or profits or earnings etc?

buy the rumor, sell the news.

[gouscfootball]

Almost time to get out, 30 more cents then I've gotta work my actual job

Dude, why do you even have an actual job? Every trade you make is right on, just trade full time...You're making 10K a day, literally just trading. Fuark..

[meteoraln]

Took a loss on that aapl fiasco but it was house money from aapl last week so its good...time to reload the rest of it and pepper my angus for monday lol...also looking for small plays to close the week

Don't think of profits as "house money". This is a sure way to go broke. Playing with "house money" makes you yield to riskier temptations that you normally wouldn't with "your money".

[swingracex]

Don't think of profits as "house money". This is a sure way to go broke. Playing with "house money" makes you yield to riskier temptations that you normally wouldn't with "your money".

Good point...very good point...reps on rc