**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Venom08]

I would sell.

I haven't sold yet

[Lefticle]

nice warning shot here at end of day.


was saying yesterday something didn't look right (need follow through tmmrw) than **** is gonna get real


relentless bid made up of nothing but crap names upst / roku / wish / fubo is not rock solid market


tesla rug pull was crazy

Agreed. Sold a bunch of TWLO today.

[GreatReset1]

This is Biden's America now.. CarbonCuck loves Joe and is a huge Trudeau supporter as well..

Down we go!!

[Carbonfibre]

^^^^^

Joe wishes he can take credit for this. just like any president does.

this is Fed's market.

welcome back moron

imagine not playing the upside in 600 point rally since 2022 low


this next sell if it coming will be the dip buying opportunity of you life (this is going to hurt your ego but this sell might not even touch 2022 lows before buyers come in buying with both hands again)


just like they did since last October while they told you recession is coming.


you really must be one of the dumbest posters on misc


go stock up on ammo/food and hide in bunker because stock market = economy




since October 12 SP 500 +698 points.

there was one rotational sell of 200 points last week of Dec. which was bought hand over fist.

its due for sell you dumb phuck

which could be bought back again

[Abzu]

I don't plan on going to deep on this one but the president does influence the fed by telling his congress what he is willing to sign, he works the opposition to get that passed if necessary and then he signs it.

If the president wants to spend a lot of money, juice demand and throttle supply then the fed is going to have to raise rates, especially in this economic environment.

A lot of the spending that happened didn't need to happen and the spending that did need to happen, didn't have to happen now.



I will say it was the feds fault for not raising rates in 2021.

I think the fed did it on purpose with the backing of the WH to make Biden look good economically at the right times, expect to hear "comeback kid" in 2024.

As a special bonus, they get to break the back of your average American, increasing the demand for big government thereby blunting the creation of individuals. The demand for big government will only become greater when the fed starts cutting rates with inflation above 2%. You'll be getting UBI in the form of digital currency so I guess everything will be fine.

[Lefticle]

^^^^^

Calm down brother

[Carbonfibre]

Jerome Powell is life long republican if you want to go down that route.

What Fed president wants to be remember as fed chairman that crashed the stock market.

You think Jerome wants to be remembered as Paul Volcker?



Atm there is 3 ways this can go.


high growth = requires raising interest rates since inflation becomes sticky

low growth = the soft landing just keep interest rates steady and balance inflation expectations while supply/inflation fixes it self

recession = hard landing aka we broke something lets cut rates we screwed and time for more gov handouts as average folks about to lose house / jobs etc


Which path shall the fed take? not hard to figure out.

[Abzu]

JPow raised rates from DEC 2016 to DEC 2018 but decided not at all in 2021.

Why the fuk would he do that?

You would think he likes the D.

[Carbonfibre]

gee I wonder why

something something Bernanke and QE.

trick out of 08 was to just printer

Jerome realizes rates too low 16 they are going to be in trouble starts to raise bit


some new guy comes in says raise rates one more time you fired

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/inte...j-reports.html

bubble grows

something something 2020 blows it up

$4T out of thin air back stops everything under the sun

bubbles form everywhere in stock market

2022 bubbles blow up

2023 retail traders no care / go back to bubbles again because they expect Fed to back stop everything if shiit blows up

rinse repeat


they know that if rates go higher / us gov debt interest rates will start to be big problem.



game of chicken 101

[Abzu]

I guess it's just a coincidence that when you get major regime change for the first time in a long time in America, the fed decides to put some brakes on the economy and raise rates.

The only reason the fed could raise rates without the economy cratering was due to the President strengthening the underlying economy.

In 2017 there were 71 new ATHs in the DOW, this is while the fed is raising rates, the record is 70 in 1995, look at America now.

[Destor]

Tesla is finally being hit with a recall on FSD, I think this might open the door for people going after refunds or forcing hardware upgrades to get the functionality they bought — even if it’s not robotaxis.

[taf1968]

Biden is President.
Strengthening the economy.


Pick one.

[Venom08]

BABA broke below $100. Approaching my buy in.

[2020Wellness]

50 BPS rumblings are in the news. I'm sure it's just for the views and won't happen, but interesting to hear some feds are saying they would've been fine with 50 for the last hike and now recommend it for the next.

[Carbonfibre]

BABA broke below $100. Approaching my buy in.

not sure how much you follow 13F from hedge funds etc (q4 results were made available few days ago)

last quarter they all added china stocks via the china reopening play theme

hence why china names had that huge pop last few months

you could say they all unloaded here those names hence baba weakness.

now with that stupid balloon thing causing some tensions


would treat carefully that it gets second pop

[Venom08]

I believe my buy order will execute at around $98. It's for Jan 2024. I just watch the technicals, that's how I sold at the high around $120 after buying the low at $59. I do not see downside below $88. So I doubt I'll get in at the best price this time, but it's fine. I bought at $1.07 and sold at $5.30. Right now, my buy order on these same strikes is at $1.75. Just playing with house money.

[imbeingcereal]

How much more can the Fed seriously raise rates before servicing our growing debt will become a concern and will essentially require a hard stop on increasing rates? I wonder if this is why the market doubts rates will go much higher

[Carbonfibre]

How much more can the Fed seriously raise rates before servicing our growing debt will become a concern and will essentially require a hard stop on increasing rates? I wonder if this is why the market doubts rates will go much higher

worth looking into it. (not sure)

atm based on SOFR options (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)

you would get ass laugh off betting that fund rates will go above 5.5% .... it less than 1% chance

so its close to peak

what could very well happen

fed will say lets hold rates here for while at 5-5.25 for year plus

inflation will never get back to 2%

at 3%

they will do

[RobParks2M]

worth looking into it. (not sure)

atm based on SOFR options (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)

you would get ass laugh off betting that fund rates will go above 5.5% .... it less than 1% chance

so its close to peak

what could very well happen

fed will say lets hold rates here for while at 5-5.25 for year plus

inflation will never get back to 2%

at 3%

they will do

Seems reasonable. I’ve been waiting to try and time bond purchases for a mid term 5-20 year timeframe. I think we are getting close, I should start averaging in… but I’m trying to hold out for the March hike then buy a decent chunk of bond exposure. I think soon after it hits peak and they won’t lose much face value from there. I decided against maxing my Ibond purchase for the year due to expectation yield is gonna be trash H2.

Anyone know what typical buyout premium is for OG companies? buffet bought more OXY q4 and I’m interested to see how much more he buys before just taking the whole thing. Would they go as low as 20-40% premium over current price? I’ve currently only got $55CSP I just sold for June at $3.25

[Venom08]

How much more can the Fed seriously raise rates before servicing our growing debt will become a concern and will essentially require a hard stop on increasing rates? I wonder if this is why the market doubts rates will go much higher

No, the market is forward looking and anticipating a continued rise in interest rates. It's been that way for years now. The days of low rates are behind us for the next decade or so.

[RobParks2M]

No, the market is forward looking and anticipating a continued rise in interest rates. It's been that way for years now. The days of low rates are behind us for the next decade or so.

I don’t think our economy can handle 4.5-5% rates long term. I figure a couple years and we will be back to 3-4%

[Carbonfibre]

Have screenshot somewhere will post later

Expected Dec 2024 is 3.75%.

Very hard to predict considering they have hard time predicting inflation numbers month ahead let alone 2 years from now.

Notice how everything is getting revised few months after.

Not just CPI but PPI yesterday and NFP etc.

Aside was reading article last night on bloomberg.

This 3 months stretch is one of the biggest (record) buying in tech sector ever recorded. So much so that they ran over hedge funds that were shorting tech names forcing them to cover at records never seen before.

Investors made up their mind last year after nothing but stair stepping down all 2022 they were gonna buy dip last October no matter what.


2015/2016 ignore. those two lines...at that time money amount in market can't come even close to this now




atm every single dip is being bought like crazy.

can't even get 2-3 day sell off.


yesterday bit of rug pulling thought we finally going to see some selling to buy dip.

no follow through.

[SipNPiz]

I get all excited when I see red futures and red open but the dips always get bought, so lame

[Carbonfibre]

I get all excited when I see red futures and red open but the dips always get bought, so lame

you and me both

I mean great long portfolio doing good don't mind



however stumped why dip buying is this strong for such long stretch atm

like QE started again


every single time feels like sell is close

some pull back

they go / buy dip with both hands


the longer market spends here

chances of testing the SP 500 200 daily moving average get smaller.

that support just gets bigger.

[Carbonfibre]

Have you seen chart of lockhead martin / raytheon last few years or seen their earnings reports?

War is good for profits.

Without ever sending single US soldier into battlefield they return investment is some stupid ratio like 10x to cost. Unlike Iraq/Afghanistan where you sent soldiers to die for nothing.

US Defense which is bigger than any of the political parties left/right has orders till year 4050+ thanks to this war.

Now as for the average Joe that doesn't have stem degree well tough luck. Liberal arts / history isn't going to trickle down to you.



Canada here spent 8 years thinking well do we need F-35 fighter planes. Its too expensive lets upgrade older f-18.

Didn't take long to go phuck it.

They ordered 80+ F-35 last month cause its important to defend polar bears.



Spend a little time looking at cost benefit analysis you will be surprised what you find.

[_zman]

I just never know what Skunk Works is working on. But most likely, it'll be well-funded.

[RobParks2M]

entire market halted today!!!!

Up or down?!?

To the moon?

These hedgies have become too powerful! Take them down! Buy buy buy!

[MinisterOfLust]

entire market halted today!!!!

Bleak day

[Venom08]

Bought back in to my BABA calls at $1.79. earnings on Thursday.

[2020Wellness]

Bleak day

Bad news from Home Depot and Walmart + gossip of the Fed getting more aggressive with their hikes = great news for us long term DCA'n guys.