The next United Kingdom General Election

[CardiMuscles]

The election this year in the United Kingdom will be subject to redistricting, caused by the Government passing a law stating that save for five constituencies (Orkney and Shetland, the Western Isles, Anglesey and two seats for the Isle of Wight) every constituency in the country cannot be 5% larger or smaller than the average UK electorate. As a result of this, Professors Michael Thrasher, Collin Rallings, David Denver and Mr. Nicholas Whyte have produced a calculation of how 2019 would have turned out on the new boundaries.

This calculation states that the Conservatives would have won 372 seats out of a 650 seat Parliament, Labour would have won 201, the SNP 48, the Liberal Democrats 8, Plaid Cymru 2, the Greens 1 and the various parties in Northern Ireland would have won the province's 18 seats. This means that the Conservatives start out with a majority of 94 and that to overturn that completely, and get a majority of their own, Labour need to win an extra 125 seats (the only party ever to do so was Blair's Labour in 1997 when they won an extra 178 seats) and in order to do that they need to lead the Conservatives when all the votes are counted by 14% (bigger than the largest ever Labour lead at an election, again 1997)

[benedetto27]

July 4th is the day boyos. Time to vooot!

Lessgo Reform!

[dakensta]

July 4th is the day boyos. Time to vooot!

Lessgo Reform!

FFS, you can't vote for Farage to be PM, or Reform to be the ruling party.
1. He isn't a Member of Parliament, and never has been.
2. Voters don't decide who the PM is.
3. Voters don't decide who the ruling party is.

ALL a UK voter can vote for in a general election is who they want to represent them in Parliament.
Farage has never even managed to get enough people in a single constituency to make him their MP, and he's tried many times. He's simply not popular, because he's a self-serving loudmouth POS who only real interest is enriching himself while making the appropriate noises to rile up the uneducated. Which possibly explains why he's popular in the US.

[isingmodel]

July 4th is the day boyos. Time to vooot!

Lessgo Reform!

Reform are not a serious party brah

[Ronnie87]

FFS, you can't vote for Farage to be PM, or Reform to be the ruling party.
1. He isn't a Member of Parliament, and never has been.
2. Voters don't decide who the PM is.
3. Voters don't decide who the ruling party is.

ALL a UK voter can vote for in a general election is who they want to represent them in Parliament.
Farage has never even managed to get enough people in a single constituency to make him their MP, and he's tried many times. He's simply not popular, because he's a self-serving loudmouth POS who only real interest is enriching himself while making the appropriate noises to rile up the uneducated. Which possibly explains why he's popular in the US.

UKIP got nearly 4 million votes in 2015, it's just hard to get elected as an MP with our first past the post system.

[PimpinisEasy]

Lol at all these north Americans supporting reform.

This is the UK it will be labour or conservative... Labour are heavy favourites.

[Trillhouse]

Reform? lmao you racists would be better off voting BNP or National Action

https://www.tiktok.com/@questionguy/...83701556546822

[benedetto27]

Feels good being both English descent and also able to vote in the election as a Canadian.

I srs can’t wait to see the Tories get slaughtered and for Reform to deport all the immigrants in 5 years.

Ahhh I’m gonna vooot!!!

[dakensta]

Feels good being both English descent and also able to vote in the election as a Canadian.

I srs can’t wait to see the Tories get slaughtered and for Reform to deport all the immigrants in 5 years.

Ahhh I’m gonna vooot!!!

You need brush up on your UK politics. The Tories are the ones planning on giving illegal immigrants a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Reform are just a bunch of defunct Brexiteers, who now have no relevance because Brexit is over and done with, craving attention.

[CardiMuscles]

And point to a Labour lead of between 16% and 23%. This indidcates a national swing of 14% to 17.5% since 2019 which on its own would see a Labour majority of between 24 and 134, however it could be even worse for the Conservatives as both the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK are up on the last election leading to suggestions that Labour could gain an extra 2% points of swing because of tactical voting (which would take the majority up to 212)

https://e3.365dm.com/24/01/1600x900/...20240115091407

(Sky News Swingometer showing the swing needed for a Labour majority. Labour poll leads of greater than 16% gets them a majority of 26)

[PimpinisEasy]

Feels good being both English descent and also able to vote in the election as a Canadian.

I srs can’t wait to see the Tories get slaughtered and for Reform to deport all the immigrants in 5 years.

Ahhh I’m gonna vooot!!!

You are an immigrant yourself - maybe you should be deported.

[benedetto27]

/our Nige/ in in Lads!!! 2016 vibes are stronger than ever!!1 Top Kek!

You are an immigrant yourself - maybe you should be deported.

[PimpinisEasy]

/our Nige/ in in Lads!!! 2016 vibes are stronger than ever!!1 Top Kek!

Nige is an idiot. Fronts like he is pro-UK, but nin reality is more interested in maintaining our vassal state status to the US and increasingly Israel.

[freeheeler]

Rishi,your typical useless Indian cnut. How hard is it to beat the British Labour Party?

Rishi is just a useless POS. He’s been weak in allowing human scum from Eastern Europe and Africa infest the country and paying $10m a day on free hotels and food and education for filth that contributes nothing to the country

All they have to do is use the Royal Navy to block the scum from crossing the channel and turn them back to socialist France

[CardiMuscles]

A new poll where every constituency result has been calculated based on the poll suggests that Labour will win 422 seats (three more than Blair did in 1997) and that the Conservatives will be reduced to just 140 seats (25 lower than in 1997)

[freeheeler]

If it was, would you be happy to send illegal immigrants there against their will?

If that’s where they are from then yes. If they are illegal then they should be sent straight back there

[PimpinisEasy]

If that’s where they are from then yes. If they are illegal then they should be sent straight back there

It's a misconception - immigration benefits the UK.

[ColdandChilly]

You need brush up on your UK politics. The Tories are the ones planning on giving illegal immigrants a one way ticket to Rwanda.
Reform are just a bunch of defunct Brexiteers, who now have no relevance because Brexit is over and done with, craving attention.

Sure they are. The party who has won time and time again since 2010 and presides over massive immigration increases. And they're running an Indian who forced out the most handline immigration restrictionist in his cabinet (ironically also Indian lol.)

The Tories have never been serious about immigration.

[ColdandChilly]

It's a misconception - immigration benefits the UK.

It does not. That's why it's so unpopular. London was 100x nicer 50 years ago.

[CardiMuscles]

In the first televised debate of the campaign the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition faced off against each other and YouGov, a polling company in the UK, organised a snap poll of those who watched the debate (1,657) who judged the debate as follows:

I believe that the Prime Minister won the debate 46%
I believe that the Leader of the Opposition won the debate 45%
Neither of them won the debate 9%

and when those 9% were forced to make a choice, Sunak gained 5% and Starmer gained 4%, allowing the conclusion to be made that it was in effect a draw.