★Early bird fantasy football discussion 2019★

[bullybreed]

$30, 12 team, 0.5ppr Auction - 5 spots open

https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...post1584564401

[dhawkeye1980]

Looks like Hawkeye was conservative with his projection. 110/1500/18

Dont know why you guys continue to doubt me

[yuja]

Dont know why you guys continue to doubt me

tempered expectations

[Tyler2106]

Melvin Gordon is not reporting to camp today.

I thought I saw somewhere that Gordon holding out doesn't help him like it did Bell. Reports are that the Chargers and Gordon aren't even close on making a deal.

[Jayarbie]

I thought I saw somewhere that Gordon holding out doesn't help him like it did Bell. Reports are that the Chargers and Gordon aren't even close on making a deal.

This is correct. Bell was a free agent not under contract at all (just forced to play either for the franchise tender or nothing). Gordon is currently under contract, so if he holds out for the year, his contract just tolls and he'sin the same situation until he decides he will play out the last year of it.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

I thought I saw somewhere that Gordon holding out doesn't help him like it did Bell. Reports are that the Chargers and Gordon aren't even close on making a deal.

Yeah Yuja mentioned it earlier. Something about the hold out year not counting towards Free Agency...not sure what that means but I imagine it would mean that basically this year never happened, and he'll be in the same spot in 2020 as right now.

I don't think he has any leverage. He has not been able to stay healthy resulting in only one 1000yd season, and last year was his first year going over 4.0YPC.

EDIT: Wizard Jay

[Fiz-iks]

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler expects Vance McDonald to have a "monster season" for the Steelers.
This is our first blurb on McDonald since the end of last season, and he's widely been viewed as one of the biggest offseason winners in the Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers have the fifth-most targets and third-most air yards available from 2018 following Antonio Brown and Jesse James' departures. McDonald already set new career bests with his 50-610-4 line on 72 targets in 2018, but he has a chance to build on that if he can become Big Ben's No. 2 option behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. McDonald is currently being drafted as the TE9 in fantasy.

I hate this kind of analysis where people draw a straight line between Brown leaving and adding those targets directly to McDonald. People need to realize there is a good chance that the Steelers don't run the same offence, they may not be able to throw the ball as much do to a change in personnel. Things aren't going to stay exactly the same when you lose one of the top WRs in the league.

[Fiz-iks]

This is correct. Bell was a free agent not under contract at all (just forced to play either for the franchise tender or nothing). Gordon is currently under contract, so if he holds out for the year, his contract just tolls and he'sin the same situation until he decides he will play out the last year of it.

I don't think that's correct. I know Chargers can still franchise tag him, but I think he's accrued enough time in the league to be a FA.

[Tyler2106]

Where is Lamar Miller going this draft? He's always an intriguing pick because of his workload and he's dropped weight to supposedly help him. I don't know if the Texans worked on their offensive line, as it was hot garbage last season, to allow him to find holes and be productive.

[bullybreed]

I hate this kind of analysis where people draw a straight line between Brown leaving and adding those targets directly to McDonald. People need to realize there is a good chance that the Steelers don't run the same offence, they may not be able to throw the ball as much do to a change in personnel. Things aren't going to stay exactly the same when you lose one of the top WRs in the league.

This ^

[yuja]

I don't think that's correct. I know Chargers can still franchise tag him, but I think he's accrued enough time in the league to be a FA.

franchise tag is over for this year. if he holds out the full year he won't accrue a season and will be a RFA next year (or so I read...too lazy to find exactly how many games they can hold out while still accruing a year)

I hate this kind of analysis where people draw a straight line between Brown leaving and adding those targets directly to McDonald. People need to realize there is a good chance that the Steelers don't run the same offence, they may not be able to throw the ball as much do to a change in personnel. Things aren't going to stay exactly the same when you lose one of the top WRs in the league.

They didn't suggest a straight add on of targets/yards of everyone that just left to Vance, but it does leave a lot of opportunity with one less TE there

Even a 20% improvement from last season (pushing it) would put him on ppl's radars since TE is so top heavy in terms of steady contributors

Will be interesting to see if Conner can shoulder a full workload...he couldn't last year

Where is Lamar Miller going this draft? He's always an intriguing pick because of his workload and he's dropped weight to supposedly help him. I don't know if the Texans worked on their offensive line, as it was hot garbage last season, to allow him to find holes and be productive.

Lamar is 80 on yahoo right now...coincidentally ranked next to the QB Lamar lol

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Where is Lamar Miller going this draft? He's always an intriguing pick because of his workload and he's dropped weight to supposedly help him. I don't know if the Texans worked on their offensive line, as it was hot garbage last season, to allow him to find holes and be productive.

In the toilet, 3 years in a row I've tried to get behind him. I'm done now.

[Jayarbie]

I don't think that's correct. I know Chargers can still franchise tag him, but I think he's accrued enough time in the league to be a FA.

He'll be a FA (subject to franchise tag rules, etc) when his contract expires, but if you have a year left and you hold out while under contract, that hold out year tolls (i.e. doesn't count) and the next year, you're still under contract to play for the terms of the final year of the contract when you would be a FA if you had played the last year.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

He'll be a FA (subject to franchise tag rules, etc) when his contract expires, but if you have a year left and you hold out while under contract, that hold out year tolls (i.e. doesn't count) and the next year, you're still under contract to play for the terms of the final year of the contract when you would be a FA if you had played the last year.

This is my understanding as well. Bell was able to hold out because technically his contract expired. Gordon is still on his rookie deal, and has obligation to play out the last year for it to count. If he plays out this season, and threatens to sit next year when/if they tag him, then he'd be in a better position.

[Jayarbie]

franchise tag is over for this year. if he holds out the full year he won't accrue a season and will be a RFA next year (or so I read...too lazy to find exactly how many games they can hold out while still accruing a year)

He's not an RFA now, he's under contract for a year for $5.6m. If he holds out this year, then the contract tolls and he has to play next year for the $5.6m. He can hold out forever if he wants, but when he decides to return, he has to play out his contract year (unless the Chargers agree to a new deal, of course).

They didn't suggest a straight add on of targets/yards of everyone that just left to Vance, but it does leave a lot of opportunity with one less TE there

Even a 20% improvement from last season (pushing it) would put him on ppl's radars since TE is so top heavy in terms of steady contributors

Will be interesting to see if Conner can shoulder a full workload...he couldn't last year

A 20% improvement would put him in the range of Heath Miller's average production, which is exactly what I said would be his potential, so I agree with that. I don't think 60-700-5 really qualifies as a "monster" season, though.

Lamar is 80 on yahoo right now...coincidentally ranked next to the QB Lamar lol

This is supposedly the year that D'Onta Freeman also miraculously stays healthy and productive, too.

[yuja]

He's not an RFA now, he's under contract for a year for $5.6m. If he holds out this year, then the contract tolls and he has to play next year for the $5.6m. He can hold out forever if he wants, but when he decides to return, he has to play out his contract year (unless the Chargers agree to a new deal, of course).


A 20% improvement would put him in the range of Heath Miller's average production, which is exactly what I said would be his potential, so I agree with that. I don't think 60-700-5 really qualifies as a "monster" season, though.

This is supposedly the year that D'Onta Freeman also miraculously stays healthy and productive, too.

Ah, gotcha on the Melvin thing. Do you know how long he can hold out before he has to report to get the year counted? iirc it was like 8 games...will need to look up who else held out that long and finally reported

yea 60/700/5 is definitely not a "monster" season by any means but that's probably good enough for top 6 TE production (according to last years stats)

Houston has been a RB purgatory ever since Arian Foster left. RIP Arian

[Fiz-iks]

Ah, gotcha on the Melvin thing. Do you know how long he can hold out before he has to report to get the year counted? iirc it was like 8 games...will need to look up who else held out that long and finally reported

yea 60/700/5 is definitely not a "monster" season by any means but that's probably good enough for top 6 TE production (according to last years stats)

Houston has been a RB purgatory ever since Arian Foster left. RIP Arian

The Chargers would likely have Gordon's contract tolled for a full year under the extension provisions in paragraph 16 of the standard NFL player contract thanks to an arbitration decision relating to Joey Galloway's 101-day holdout in 1999. This would mean Gordon's deal wouldn't expire until after the 2020 season instead of the 2019 season.

Seattle lost a grievance attempting to get Galloway's contact extended for an additional year under paragraph 16 because he held out for the first nine weeks of the 1999 season. The arbitrator didn't give a clear standard for how many missed weeks are necessary to trigger tolling.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/a...m-their-teams/

[Jayarbie]

Ah, gotcha on the Melvin thing. Do you know how long he can hold out before he has to report to get the year counted? iirc it was like 8 games...will need to look up who else held out that long and finally reported

yea 60/700/5 is definitely not a "monster" season by any means but that's probably good enough for top 6 TE production (according to last years stats)

Houston has been a RB purgatory ever since Arian Foster left. RIP Arian

I'm not sure if it's 6 games or 8 or 10. I'd have to look that up, too, but someone else will if it becomes relevant.

As for McDonald, he certainly could end up a mid-range fantasy starter, but I'm going to temper any claims of a "monster" year or dhawk's autistic predictions. Of course, there is this, too, on the same site:

The Athletic's Mark Kaboly expects Steelers TE Xavier Grimble's snaps to "at least triple" in 2019.
With Jesse James out of the picture, Grimble is in the driver's seat for the No. 2 tight end job behind Vance McDonald. Grimble played just over 16% of the downs a season ago but could be looking at much more after James was in on 50% of the plays in 2018. Many have high hopes for McDonald as a breakout candidate because of James' absence, but it could simply be Grimble stepping into that role. McDonald should still see more targets with Antonio Brown gone.

Xavier Grimble is much more adept in the passing game than James ever was (James was more or less a terrific blocking TE who could catch jump balls because he is 6'7"). If the snap split between the top 2 TEs is like it was, then Grimble will likely get a bigger share of the routes than James did.

Anyway, I don't wnat to dissuade anyone from drafting McDonald. He's a good player, just don't expect elite numbers from him.

[Blasting]

I hate this kind of analysis where people draw a straight line between Brown leaving and adding those targets directly to McDonald. People need to realize there is a good chance that the Steelers don't run the same offence, they may not be able to throw the ball as much do to a change in personnel. Things aren't going to stay exactly the same when you lose one of the top WRs in the league.

This. Not to mention that McDonald isn’t a great player. He’s athletic but as a 49ers fan and someone who has watched him in Pittsburgh, his hands are shaky at best. He’s just not a reliable receiver or blocker. He’ll make some highlight plays every once in a while though and get some recognition.

[dhawkeye1980]

He's not an RFA now, he's under contract for a year for $5.6m. If he holds out this year, then the contract tolls and he has to play next year for the $5.6m. He can hold out forever if he wants, but when he decides to return, he has to play out his contract year (unless the Chargers agree to a new deal, of course).


A 20% improvement would put him in the range of Heath Miller's average production, which is exactly what I said would be his potential, so I agree with that. I don't think 60-700-5 really qualifies as a "monster" season, though.

This is supposedly the year that D'Onta Freeman also miraculously stays healthy and productive, too.

Vance had 50-600-4 line last year with heavy competition. Way less competition this year

[Tyler2106]

Let's talk about the SF RB situation. Any of those RBs worth drafting?

Same with the Philly RBs. A bunch of people in line for carries. Their new rookie looks promising, but a lot of mouths to feed.

[Jayarbie]

Let's talk about the SF RB situation. Any of those RBs worth drafting?

Same with the Philly RBs. A bunch of people in line for carries. Their new rookie looks promising, but a lot of mouths to feed.

Anyone is worth drafting if they fall far enough. In Philly, I'd want Sanders. by the end of the season, I think he'll be the best bet, but I would not draft him before maybe the 8th or 9th round. Jordan Howard will be useful in the early part of the season, but I generally don't draft guys who I think will be phased out eventually. I know a lot less about SF, but my gut feeling is that Coleman is going to be the most valuable because they just signed him this year, but McKinnon is actually the most talented if he gets a shot at being the main guy. Breida seems like a guy who needs injuries to be relevant.

[yuja]

Let's talk about the SF RB situation. Any of those RBs worth drafting?

Same with the Philly RBs. A bunch of people in line for carries. Their new rookie looks promising, but a lot of mouths to feed.

Coleman in SF should get first jabs at taking the starting spot

Don't really want a philly back unless they drop late, as a stash

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Let's talk about the SF RB situation. Any of those RBs worth drafting?

Same with the Philly RBs. A bunch of people in line for carries. Their new rookie looks promising, but a lot of mouths to feed.

Sanders in Philly would be the only one I'd draft based off potential. Howard will start, but I see him fading midway into the season. Sanders will be lead back eventually IMO. I don't think I'd touch the SF backfield.

[bullybreed]

Sanders in Philly would be the only one I'd draft based off potential. Howard will start, but I see him fading midway into the season. Sanders will be lead back eventually IMO. I don't think I'd touch the SF backfield.

Agree on Philly, but I'm all over Coleman if I can get him late. He's a Shanahan guy, and they went out and got him.

[christians1993]

Sanders in Philly would be the only one I'd draft based off potential. Howard will start, but I see him fading midway into the season. Sanders will be lead back eventually IMO. I don't think I'd touch the SF backfield.

I've read reports that Sanders has had difficulty in Pass protection and learning the playbook. I also think it is a little concerning that they brought back Grandpa Darren Sproles, I think they will want to bring Sanders along slowly. Combine this with the fact that Howard will probably get most or all of the goal line work, Sanders is someone I would stay away from tbh, unless you have a deep deep bench or it's a dynasty league.

[Fiz-iks]

Agree on Philly, but I'm all over Coleman if I can get him late. He's a Shanahan guy, and they went out and got him.

Hang on, last year everyone said that McKinnon was the guy because they paid him. None of the three can handle a full workload. It's like they have three clones of one player and will just play them based upon who is healthy.

[christians1993]

What is everyone's opinion/strategy on the wasteland position that is Tight End. The consensus top tier is comprised of Kelce/Kittle/Ertz, who are all ranked mid 2nd round to early 3rd round in Yahoo.


Then you have that 2nd tier that consists of OJ Howard, Engram, Henry, Ebron, Jared Cook, and Njoku, all of which figure to go somewhere between round 5 and round 8.

After that it's kinda just a bunch of guys that are weekly dart throws tbh. Some guys in the 3rd tier or lower of tight ends I like are Austin Hooper and Vance MacDonald. I think they could provide good value for their ADP if you miss out on the top guys


Man, what a dumpster fire overall. In mock drafts, I have been tempted to take one of Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz just because they are the only ones that will be somewhat of a sure thing. I just can't justify spending a 6th or a 7th round pick on someone like Eric Ebron, lmfao what.


What are your guy's strategies for TE this season

[Jayarbie]

What is everyone's opinion/strategy on the wasteland position that is Tight End. The consensus top tier is comprised of Kelce/Kittle/Ertz, who are all ranked mid 2nd round to early 3rd round in Yahoo.


Then you have that 2nd tier that consists of OJ Howard, Engram, Henry, Ebron, Jared Cook, and Njoku, all of which figure to go somewhere between round 5 and round 8.

After that it's kinda just a bunch of guys that are weekly dart throws tbh. Some guys in the 3rd tier or lower of tight ends I like are Austin Hooper and Vance MacDonald. I think they could provide good value for their ADP if you miss out on the top guys


Man, what a dumpster fire overall. In mock drafts, I have been tempted to take one of Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz just because they are the only ones that will be somewhat of a sure thing. I just can't justify spending a 6th or a 7th round pick on someone like Eric Ebron, lmfao what.


What are your guy's strategies for TE this season

I agree with everything you're saying. I can't see myself taking a TE before the 3rd this year, but Kelce and Ertz are worth that investment IMO. If I don't get them, then I'll just wait on a value pick. I think Engram might be a good late-mid round option. The Giants are going to be behind and throwing a lot and their WRs suck, so he's a good candidate for a lot of garbage time production.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

What is everyone's opinion/strategy on the wasteland position that is Tight End. The consensus top tier is comprised of Kelce/Kittle/Ertz, who are all ranked mid 2nd round to early 3rd round in Yahoo.


Then you have that 2nd tier that consists of OJ Howard, Engram, Henry, Ebron, Jared Cook, and Njoku, all of which figure to go somewhere between round 5 and round 8.

After that it's kinda just a bunch of guys that are weekly dart throws tbh. Some guys in the 3rd tier or lower of tight ends I like are Austin Hooper and Vance MacDonald. I think they could provide good value for their ADP if you miss out on the top guys


Man, what a dumpster fire overall. In mock drafts, I have been tempted to take one of Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz just because they are the only ones that will be somewhat of a sure thing. I just can't justify spending a 6th or a 7th round pick on someone like Eric Ebron, lmfao what.


What are your guy's strategies for TE this season

Last year I drafted Ertz early in two leagues, and played TE roulette in another. I really enjoyed having a set and forget TE every week, especially someone like Ertz or Kelce who puts up WR numbers. It's easier to find a WR later than a TE.

I will say I like Kelce more than Ertz this year with Dallas Goedert looking promising.