***Official MLB 2016 SEASON THREAD****

[Worakls]

a lot

the NL has a higher team OPS this year than the AL BTW


in 2015, AL had a higher avg team ops by .17 points. It ain't that much of a difference

[broboma2012]

the NL has a higher team OPS this year than the AL BTW


in 2015, AL had a higher avg team ops by .17 points. It ain't that much of a difference

4/5 top offenses in baseball last year were in the al

4/5 bottom offenses in baseball last year were in the nl

[heyquikquestion]

Aledmys Diaz is the worst defensive shortstop I've seen in a long time, and I used to watch Starlin Castro on a daily basis.

[tonyparker69]

4/5 top offenses in baseball last year were in the al

4/5 bottom offenses in baseball last year were in the nl

gotta account for parks

jays were first, but the 2nd and 3rd offenses were actually the giants and dodgers

but the 4th thru 10th offenses were all AL teams

[piplip]

How many bandwagon fans are the Mariners going to have? Going to be like the Seahawks circa 2012??

FML.

[chlaxman]

anyone have any legit analysis on just how much the nl boosts pitcher's stats?

http://www.thescore.com/news/974878

[chlaxman]

gotta account for parks

jays were first, but the 2nd and 3rd offenses were actually the giants and dodgers

but the 4th thru 10th offenses were all AL teams

Well accounting for parks actually again helps NL pitchers. They're more pitcher friendly overall.

[criminal_manne]

nice to see josh tomlin returning to the 'real' josh tomlin

He actually settled down and earned a quality start and the Indians won, lol at you.

[criminal_manne]

Aledmys Diaz is the worst defensive shortstop I've seen in a long time, and I used to watch Starlin Castro on a daily basis.

Do yourself and favor and watch some Fransico Lindor highlights. He the best SS in the game right now defensively and most likely overall ( can be bothered to look it up be he's easily the best).

[Poppingtags]

Do yourself and favor and watch some Fransico Lindor highlights. He the best SS in the game right now defensively and most likely overall ( can be bothered to look it up be he's easily the best).

False. Manny Machado is the best shortstop in the game

[broboma2012]

He actually settled down and earned a quality start and the Indians won, lol at you.

Twins













Lol

[broboma2012]

http://www.thescore.com/news/974878

So fairly significant.


Also, on park factors... Tony you seem to use a year by year sample on this. I don't feel this is a great way to get the most accurate information on a how much a park can affect numbers.

@chlaxman, what would you say is a good sample to accurately determine park factors?

[criminal_manne]

Twins













Lol

Ironic considering you were bragging about Sales start against the AL East last place

Yankees






May 25th don't forget the date.









Indians bakin

[broboma2012]

Ironic considering you were bragging about Sales start against the AL East last place

Yankees






May 25th don't forget the date.









Indians bakin

Who have nearly twice the wins as the twins and have scored 11 more runs. Sale also gave up 6 base runners over 9, while you're bragging about a 'quality start'.














May 25









Indians in third place at best

[criminal_manne]

Who have nearly twice the wins as the twins and have scored 11 more runs. Sale also gave up 6 base runners over 9, while you're bragging about a 'quality start'.














May 25









Indians in third place at best

Except I was responding to your chit post that back fired.








Take your L

[chlaxman]

So fairly significant.


Also, on park factors... Tony you seem to use a year by year sample on this. I don't feel this is a great way to get the most accurate information on a how much a park can affect numbers.

@chlaxman, what would you say is a good sample to accurately determine park factors?

I'd say at least 3 years. And that's 3 years of consistent data. If park dimensions or something changes gotta throw out old odata. If you're seeing year to year variance confidence goes down.

[broboma2012]

Except I was responding to your chit post that back fired.








Take your L

except you are bragging about a quality start against the worst team in the american league. just lol.


continue to watch tomlin's era climb with each start as he show you who he 'really' is.

[broboma2012]

I'd say at least 3 years. And that's 3 years of consistent data. If park dimensions or something changes gotta throw out old odata. If you're seeing year to year variance confidence goes down.

how about a huge variance in lineups put out by a team? i think that people cite park factors with far too much confidence. do you buy into park factors for things like walks? tony was talking about that a while ago, and I am pretty sketical

[broboma2012]

interesting article on sale bring the most valuable pitcher in the al by far

Sale, 27, has the best WAR (24.7) of any AL pitcher since the start of the 2012 season, too, again outpacing higher-paid counterparts. Hernández, who makes $26 million, has 21.6 WAR, and Price ($30 million) has 19.9.

In March 2013, the White Sox signed Sale to a five-year, $32.5 million deal with options for 2018 and 2019. At that point, he had two seasons of relief work and one as a starter to his name. Sale, 27, has a $13.5 million team option for 2019, his age-30 season, which is far less than Hernández and Price are making in their age-30 seasons this year.

probably the best contract in baseball

[tonyparker69]

So fairly significant.


Also, on park factors... Tony you seem to use a year by year sample on this. I don't feel this is a great way to get the most accurate information on a how much a park can affect numbers.

@chlaxman, what would you say is a good sample to accurately determine park factors?

Agree, I only mentioned it because I thought we were talking about just last year's offense, though I'm going off fangraphs, whose Park factor calculation is multi year and so I trust that a bit more than espn, which uses 1 year samples (which can obviously vary wildly when you go from bad team to elite team in a year)

Stuff like walks and strikeouts is interesting because they require actual research instead of "short right field porch" to explain. I don't think anyone's figured out why people walk so much at the cell, but I know fangraphs did an article on why strikeouts are so low at comerica Park, should be able to find on Google

Tbh I don't really like stats like era- and whatever, other than just for arguments sake. I don't think you can truly compare parks, some for the reason you mentioned above with lineup variance as well as a few other reasons, and I sure don't think you can compare different eras like that (like people using fip- to prove Kershaw is better than Koufax or whatever), but it's the best that us average people have access to lol

[chlaxman]

how about a huge variance in lineups put out by a team? i think that people cite park factors with far too much confidence. do you buy into park factors for things like walks? tony was talking about that a while ago, and I am pretty sketical

Lineup will affect it. I'm not sure the exact analysis that goes into the adjustments but I know they include regression. Any change that will increase the variance will lower confidence.

I'm skeptical that parks directly influence walks but I'd bet it to can change pitching approaches, influencing walks. I mean in a park that cuts down on HR and doubles (Angels) a walk would be more detrimental than other places.

[chlaxman]

interesting article on sale bring the most valuable pitcher in the al by far




probably the best contract in baseball

Outside of rookie contracts absolutely

[broboma2012]

Lineup will affect it. I'm not sure the exact analysis that goes into the adjustments but I know they include regression. Any change that will increase the variance will lower confidence.

I'm skeptical that parks directly influence walks but I'd bet it to can change pitching approaches, influencing walks. I mean in a park that cuts down on HR and doubles (Angels) a walk would be more detrimental than other places.

that is actually a pretty good guess.

[x-trainer ben]

This Chris Sale guy is pretty good.

[tonyparker69]

Estrada vs Colby Lewis today

In b4 we make Lewis look like Kershaw again

I think tulo is using a lighter bat now. Sure looked good yesterday, hopefully it's what he needs to start catching up to the heat again. Though I think he has vision issues too, he's been taking meatballs strike 1, swinging at something way outside of the zone strike 2 then arguing strike 3 right down the middle all season long. Even with age, somebody like tulo doesn't turn to sh*t like that without there being something else wrong

Lineup will affect it. I'm not sure the exact analysis that goes into the adjustments but I know they include regression. Any change that will increase the variance will lower confidence.

I'm skeptical that parks directly influence walks but I'd bet it to can change pitching approaches, influencing walks. I mean in a park that cuts down on HR and doubles (Angels) a walk would be more detrimental than other places.

What's weird is Chicago's Park. The cell allows a ton of Homers (though not many triples and doubles I believe) but is by far the leader in walks and has been for a long time now

Outside of rookie contracts absolutely

Right. Goldy and Bumgarner as well.

[broboma2012]

Outside of rookie contracts absolutely

that's why i don't think it is as simple just tot trade sale to retool (as many people suggested). the chances of the sox getting that type of value in return is pretty rare

[chlaxman]

Estrada vs Colby Lewis today

In b4 we make Lewis look like Kershaw again



What's weird is Chicago's Park. The cell allows a ton of Homers (though not many triples and doubles I believe) but is by far the leader in walks and has been for a long time now



Right. Goldy and Bumgarner as well.

Chicago also has the wind.

[tonyparker69]

Chicago also has the wind.

It's more than that. Wrigley is also Chicago but as far as I know, it doesnt allow nearly as many Homers as the cell does

[chlaxman]

that's why i don't think it is as simple just tot trade sale to retool (as many people suggested). the chances of the sox getting that type of value in return is pretty rare

IMO people underrate the really great players. Sale's a 7-8 win guy, right? You'd be lucky to get 6 WAR a year in return from 2 guys. And you'd be taking on prospect risk. I'd demand 9 a year mostly from fielding to consider it.

[chlaxman]

It's more than that. Wrigley is also Chicago but as far as I know, it doesnt allow nearly as many Homers as the cell does

Oh yeah I get that. I just mean those adjustments are averages and the wind will render those averages meaningless on a day to day and series to series basis.