★Early bird fantasy football discussion 2018 ★

[TMaC828]

Lewis gonna eat into henry but he does have a shot at getting a ton of TDs and his explosiveness to bust a lomg one is there

Is murray an FA or did he get picked up anywhere?

Saints reached out for Murray to work out for them and he declined.

Don't blame him, he'd be the third string.

[yuja]

I've seen people here down on Ajayi, but I think he's going to be a legit RB1/2. Blount is gone, so he'll get goal-line and 4-min drill work, he's decent out of the backfield, and his competition are 40 YO Sproles coming off ACL reconstruction and Corey Clement, who was undrafted and is probably best in a backup role. If Ajayi stays healthy, he could end up as a 3-down back in one of the best offenses in the league.

There's also Smallwood and Pumphrey but I do agree that Ajayi could be a good value

or he could end up with 12-14 carries a games and just end up barely being a RB2

Saints reached out for Murray to work out for them and he declined.

Don't blame him, he'd be the third string.

Probably not going to get signed until season starts and injuries start happening

Dez too

[bullybreed]

There's also Smallwood and Pumphrey but I do agree that Ajayi could be a good value

or he could end up with 12-14 carries a games and just end up barely being a RB2





Probably not going to get signed until season starts and injuries start happening

Dez too

I drafted him as a flex this year in a draft I already did. Already have Bell and Howard as RB1 and 2. I'm okay with this right now, but see how it pans out as we get deeper into camp.



Where are we at on Marlon Mack this year? The rookies they drafted have a chance to bump him out?

[Tyler2106]

I think Henry might be undervalued. He's going to have the full work load now that Murray is gone.

Did you miss the part where the Titans picked up Dion Lewis? Lewis is more than capable of eating a lot of touches from Murray. I don't know how they're going to use this duo. Murray is a great runner himself, but Lewis isn't someone you sign and pay to be a change of pace back. I could see Lewis being the back between the 20s.

[yuja]

I drafted him as a flex this year in a draft I already did. Already have Bell and Howard as RB1 and 2. I'm okay with this right now, but see how it pans out as we get deeper into camp.


Where are we at on Marlon Mack this year? The rookies they drafted have a chance to bump him out?

I'm not a huge fan of Jordan Howard personally but yeah flexing Ajayi sounds great

Was never really wowed by Mack last year (3.58 YPC) but their line was chit and so was their offense in general. Even with Luck assumed to be coming back I don't think I want a piece of that backfield between Mack/Turbin/Wilkins

Did you miss the part where the Titans picked up Dion Lewis? Lewis is more than capable of eating a lot of touches from Murray. I don't know how they're going to use this duo. Murray is a great runner himself, but Lewis isn't someone you sign and pay to be a change of pace back. I could see Lewis being the back between the 20s.

from Henry*

I feel like it'd be a hot hand kind of situation but Henry would definitely have a ton of upside if something were to happen to Lewis

[Jayarbie]

There's also Smallwood and Pumphrey but I do agree that Ajayi could be a good value

or he could end up with 12-14 carries a games and just end up barely being a RB2

Pumphrey was cut last year and not activated even when Sproles went on IR. Smallwood is probably going to be cut as well. He did zero with the chances he had last year. Both were severely outplayed by UDFA Clement. They also have Matt Jones in camp plus a UDFA rookie competing with Smallwood/Pumphrey for the 4th RB spot, but it's likely to go to the better special teamer of the bunch.

[bullybreed]

I'm not a huge fan of Jordan Howard personally but yeah flexing Ajayi sounds great

Was never really wowed by Mack last year (3.58 YPC) but their line was chit and so was their offense in general. Even with Luck assumed to be coming back I don't think I want a piece of that backfield between Mack/Turbin/Wilkins




from Henry*

I feel like it'd be a hot hand kind of situation but Henry would definitely have a ton of upside if something were to happen to Lewis

You're not a fan of a durable back who has averaged 4.6 ypc his first 2 seasons and over 2400 yards with a banged up line and a below average offense? Who now has what should pan out to be a much, much more improved offense where defenses won't be able to just focus on run, run, pass each series. Where he more than likely won't see consistently stacked boxes with no threat of a downfield passing offense?

If he improves his pass catching, which he apparently is working on a lot this summer he will be a stud.

[Tyler2106]

from Henry*

Yes. My bad.

[yuja]

You're not a fan of a durable back who has averaged 4.6 ypc his first 2 seasons and over 2400 yards with a banged up line and a below average offense? Who now has what should pan out to be a much, much more improved offense where defenses won't be able to just focus on run, run, pass each series. Where he more than likely won't see consistently stacked boxes with no threat of a downfield passing offense?

If he improves his pass catching, which he apparently is working on a lot this summer he will be a stud.

I don't see much improvement in that line, the offense hasn't proven that it's "much much more improved", and I think Cohen eats into his touches more this year than last year.

He is already being priced as a stud RB (ranked 33 on yahoo, RB15). Probably the last set and forget RB before you get into the murky RBBCs and unproven rooks

At the end of the day, in fantasy you can have feelings about specific players and not want them on your team and that's just how it going to be. Could be a big mistake but at the end of the day how am I supposed to rosterbate to a bunch of players I don't like? /s

[bullybreed]

I don't see much improvement in that line, the offense hasn't proven that it's "much much more improved", and I think Cohen eats into his touches more this year than last year.

He is already being priced as a stud RB (ranked 33 on yahoo, RB15). Probably the last set and forget RB before you get into the murky RBBCs and unproven rooks

At the end of the day, in fantasy you can have feelings about specific players and not want them on your team and that's just how it going to be. Could be a big mistake but at the end of the day how am I supposed to rosterbate to a bunch of players I don't like? /s

I think Cohen goes the opposite way this year personally. He's going to come out of the backfield less and/or they will be on the field together.
I know the offense hasn't proven anything and that's why I said "should".

What he has done so far isn't his ceiling in any way shape or form. Again, look at the offenses he was in his first 2 years and what he actually did with that. To me this year, he's an RB2 with RB1 upside if the offense goes the way I think it should/will.

[yuja]

I think Cohen goes the opposite way this year personally. He's going to come out of the backfield less and/or they will be on the field together.
I know the offense hasn't proven anything and that's why I said "should".

What he has done so far isn't his ceiling in any way shape or form. Again, look at the offenses he was in his first 2 years and what he actually did with that. To me this year, he's an RB2 with RB1 upside if the offense goes the way I think it should/will.

I agree with your assessment of RB2 with RB1 upside (although I would say he's a low end RB1). I'm just not a fan because I play mostly PPR and he doesn't catch passes. Nothing against him as a runner or taking away from what he's done in his 2 years.

[bullybreed]

I agree with your assessment of RB2 with RB1 upside (although I would say he's a low end RB1). I'm just not a fan because I play mostly PPR and he doesn't catch passes. Nothing against him as a runner or taking away from what he's done in his 2 years.

I get that. I hope he will be more involved in the pass game this year. Although I guess that could go completely the other way because of everything Mitch will be able to throw to but they will need him to be able to catch better out of the backfield regardless.

[Tyler2106]

I get that. I hope he will be more involved in the pass game this year. Although I guess that could go completely the other way because of everything Mitch will be able to throw to but they will need him to be able to catch better out of the backfield regardless.

Since you're a Bears fan, what are they saying as far as the workload this season? RBBC? Hot hand? Cohen change of pace back? Probably too early to tell, but didn't know if you've heard.

[chroneos]

Pertinent to the Henry Vs. Lewis talk.



Originally I was higher on Lewis than Henry but this video is making me rethink that. I actually think they may both be viable starts this year.

[bullybreed]

Since you're a Bears fan, what are they saying as far as the workload this season? RBBC? Hot hand? Cohen change of pace back? Probably too early to tell, but didn't know if you've heard.

- Cohen has been lining up all over the field in OTAs etc. I actually think he comes out of the backfield less this year and they use him more as a receiver.
- Howard has been working all off season on his receiving.
- Howard will definitely get the early work, but I don't think he'll be coming off the field much this year.
- I heard something early on in Nagy's coaching when he was first starting with the team that their RBs would be used depending on game situation, but I don't know how much merit that will hold.

If you're in a PPR league, obviously Howard isn't at the top of your draft list. But I think he improves in that area this year and I got him in the 3rd round in my first draft this year which I'm okay with. He caught 29 balls last year and the offense hardly threw the ball. For comparison a guy like Hunt who is going in the end of the first round this year, only caught 53 balls. Howard dropped statistically 6 catchable balls last year. If he cleans that up and and now is in an offense that will be passing more, I think he can catch 45-50 balls this year.

- Zeke only caught 32 passes his first season. 26 missing 6 games his 2nd season. At that rate last year for a full 16 games he only ends up with about 35 catches.

[Murph0408]

on Henry/Lewis

-titans are conservative. they always are. mariota isn't going to suddenly start throwing the ball all over the field.
-strong OL
-Henry was a beast in the playoffs averaging 5.3/carry
-Lewis is a 5'8 scatback while Henry is 6'3 245. who do you think gets the goal line carries really.

long story short even if he's only doing the first two downs Henry is a strong RB2 choice in my opinion.

[Jayarbie]

on Henry/Lewis

-titans are conservative. they always are. mariota isn't going to suddenly start throwing the ball all over the field.
-strong OL
-Henry was a beast in the playoffs averaging 5.3/carry
-Lewis is a 5'8 scatback while Henry is 6'3 245. who do you think gets the goal line carries really.

long story short even if he's only doing the first two downs Henry is a strong RB2 choice in my opinion.

Yeah, I'd consider Henry an RB2 in all formats and Lewis an RB2/flex in PPR and handcuff/bench stash in standard. If Lewis gets hurt, Henry would be a solid RB1.

[Tyler2106]

Let's talk A-aron Rodgers. Is he going to end the season QB1? He's going to get a HUGE contract and lost his #1 WR. He still has good WRs. Is he worth a 2nd - 3rd round pick?

[Murph0408]

Let's talk A-aron Rodgers. Is he going to end the season QB1? He's going to get a HUGE contract and lost his #1 WR. He still has good WRs. Is he worth a 2nd - 3rd round pick?

i've never had him because i still believe taking a QB early hurts you too much. you need a solid overall team before you take a QB and he goes at least 2 rounds too early for me.

all that said, there is no reason to believe he won't be tremendous. jordy is no longer good enough to say his departure hurts aaron. i think devante adams will be god-like this year and rodgers ends the season at or near QB1.

[bullybreed]

i've never had him because i still believe taking a QB early hurts you too much. you need a solid overall team before you take a QB and he goes at least 2 rounds too early for me.

all that said, there is no reason to believe he won't be tremendous. jordy is no longer good enough to say his departure hurts aaron. i think devante adams will be god-like this year and rodgers ends the season at or near QB1.

I feel this is true with the exception of Rodgers and Brady. I took Rodgers early last year, and grabbed Nelson in the very next round. Rodgers gets hurt and Nelson disappears. I lost them both at once, and I still made it to the championship round. Ultimately lost because I got Gurley'ed, but still got there. If you draft well enough after (and gets some luck along the way) you can still put together a good team taking a qb early depending how the rest of the draft falls.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Let's talk A-aron Rodgers. Is he going to end the season QB1? He's going to get a HUGE contract and lost his #1 WR. He still has good WRs. Is he worth a 2nd - 3rd round pick?

He will still dominate and be in the top 3 for QB points. He has been unstoppable no matter who he throws the ball too. Honestly looking back at my drafts and how often my 3rd rounder ends up tanking or getting hurt, I'd take Rodgers in the 3rd for a "set and forget" at QB.

[bullybreed]

He will still dominate and be in the top 3 for QB points. He has been unstoppable no matter who he throws the ball too. Honestly looking back at my drafts and how often my 3rd rounder ends up tanking or getting hurt, I'd take Rodgers in the 3rd for a "set and forget" at QB.

One thing too we have to remember is he's now 34. Has had 2 clavicle fractures in the last what 4 seasons? He's great at escaping but sometimes holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary hits. I didn't take a shot at him this year and I very well could have early in the 3rd round, he was still there. Opted for Watson in the 5th instead.

[Tyler2106]

I feel this is true with the exception of Rodgers and Brady. I took Rodgers early last year, and grabbed Nelson in the very next round. Rodgers gets hurt and Nelson disappears. I lost them both at once, and I still made it to the championship round. Ultimately lost because I got Gurley'ed, but still got there. If you draft well enough after (and gets some luck along the way) you can still put together a good team taking a qb early depending how the rest of the draft falls.

I don't think taking a QB early hurts you too much. I took Brady in the 3rd last season and it paid off well. I think when you take a QB early though your other need to be really good because there is still good RB/WR talent in the 3rd round that you could take. I went DJ ->Gronk -> Brady last season. Had DJ not gotten hurt I think I would have been pretty well off.

[Tyler2106]

One thing too we have to remember is he's now 34. Has had 2 clavicle fractures in the last what 4 seasons? He's great at escaping but sometimes holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary hits. I didn't take a shot at him this year and I very well could have early in the 3rd round, he was still there. Opted for Watson in the 5th instead.

I'm not sure I'd let age scare you about Rodgers. Brady has proven you can beat father time and Rodgers seems like he's still got a lot in the tank. The 2 clavicle fractures though is what should worry you. They say once your break them you're more susceptible to breaking them again.

[kids.got.soul]

Let's talk A-aron Rodgers. Is he going to end the season QB1? He's going to get a HUGE contract and lost his #1 WR. He still has good WRs. Is he worth a 2nd - 3rd round pick?

Definitely. Adams is the obvious beneficiary of that offense's makeup this year but Cobb is going to be a great value too if his ADP stays near where it is right now.

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

I'm not sure I'd let age scare you about Rodgers. Brady has proven you can beat father time and Rodgers seems like he's still got a lot in the tank. The 2 clavicle fractures though is what should worry you. They say once your break them you're more susceptible to breaking them again.

The only counter argument I'd throw out is that Rodger's dominance is highly dependent on his physical ability. His arm strength, athleticism, and running ability contribute drastically to his game. Brady is the complete opposite. He is a great QB due the offense he runs, and intelligence. He does not need arm strength or agility to do well.

Rodger is a smart QB, but not sure we'd see the same success if his physical ability is limited.

EDIT: To be clear, not at all saying he is going to regress. Just making a general statement.

[bullybreed]

I'm not sure I'd let age scare you about Rodgers. Brady has proven you can beat father time and Rodgers seems like he's still got a lot in the tank. The 2 clavicle fractures though is what should worry you. They say once your break them you're more susceptible to breaking them again.

The clavicle fractures is exactly what I mean. I'm not worried about his ability to play the game at a high level at his age, I'm worried about his durability as he gets older.

[yuja]

One thing too we have to remember is he's now 34. Has had 2 clavicle fractures in the last what 4 seasons? He's great at escaping but sometimes holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary hits. I didn't take a shot at him this year and I very well could have early in the 3rd round, he was still there. Opted for Watson in the 5th instead.

You're not worried about a Watson regression?

I know I usually end up in at least one misc league with other people but I'm liking guys like Rivers/Ryan so far this year at their price points. Also Wentz if he can get healthy

fading Watson/Jimmy G

[JUGGERNAUT1333]

Cowboys entire offense minus Zeke is basically undraftable IMO. I think Dak will have a better football season, but will not translate to fantasy. Doubt any WR breaks 700yds or 6TDs.

OK undraftable is a stretch, but still..

[Tyler2106]

You're not worried about a Watson regression?

I know I usually end up in at least one misc league with other people but I'm liking guys like Rivers/Ryan so far this year at their price points. Also Wentz if he can get healthy

fading Watson/Jimmy G

Why are you fading on Watson and Jimmy G?

Cowboys entire offense minus Zeke is basically undraftable IMO. I think Dak will have a better football season, but will not translate to fantasy. Doubt any WR breaks 700yds or 6TDs.

OK undraftable is a stretch, but still..

Are the Cowboys even going to be good this year? I haven't paid attention to what they did this off season and seeing regression from Dak last year makes me think he'll be the same this year.