🦇🦠🧪✡️ COVID-19 Hangout Thread 🔬🛸💊🦎 Episode IV: A New Hope

[Frank Drebin]

Can somebody explain why many in this thread have switched from CFR to IFR?

In my opinion, CFR is a more reliable metric but maybe somebody can persuade me. We can accurately measure CFR, whereas IFR is a estimate using asymptomatic.

If you don't get tested, you don't die.

CFR is not reliable as it is simply a ratio of those dead to those tested. Test and report lots, CFR goes down. Test and report little, CFR goes up.

Testing rates from country to country and even district to district have discrepancies. IFR gives a truer look at how deadly (or not) the virus is.

[GaloisTheory]

Can't be. Those numbers just can't be right. It would make my prediction from months ago almost spot on (months ago I projected at least 5x that of seasonal flue given as 0.1 so at least 0.5 and maybe as high as 1 but probably in between).

'ha

The IFR for seasonal flu is 0.05%. The 0.1% figure is of people who are symptomatic.

Can somebody explain why many in this thread have switched from CFR to IFR?

In my opinion, CFR is a more reliable metric but maybe somebody can persuade me. We can accurately measure CFR, whereas IFR is a estimate using asymptomatic.

They measure completely different things so I don't think it makes sense to talk about using one over the other. IFR is better for assessing the overall risk to a population. CFR is better for assessing the risk posed to vulnerable groups.

[Farley1324]

where covid isn't political and reporting can be trusted.

lol

[Anachron]

IFR for those under 49 (with and without comorbidities): .0106% or about one in 9400.

That's including with comorbidities.

What the heck.

[Farley1324]

CFR is not reliable as it is simply a ratio of those dead to those tested.

Those who tested positive

Simply getting a test doesn't make you part of CFR lol

[Frank Drebin]

lol

thats all you got. Do you accept or reject my calculations from the Government of Canada's website?

[Frank Drebin]

Those who tested positive

Simply getting a test doesn't make you part of CFR lol

Point stands. CFR is a useless statistic that depends largely on testing.

[Frank Drebin]

That's including with comorbidities.

What the heck.

72 deaths in 55,000 cases, for a CFR of .13%, or about 1 in 763.

That is CFR, the ratio of confirmed deaths to confirmed cases, for everyone under 49, including comorbidities.

[Farley1324]

thats all you got. Do you accept or reject my calculations from the Government of Canada's website?

You think Canada has 1.37 million cases despite the reported number right now being like 111k?

[Frank Drebin]

You think Canada has 1.37 million cases despite the reported number right now being like 111k?

Using your accepted IFR of .65% that you patted yourself on the back for, YEAH thats what 8800 deaths works out to.

(1,360,000*.0065) equals what now? This is basic math here.

[Destor]

Speaking of Canada, Alberta’s cases are picking up speed. Fukn hope we can squash this chit down again, we had been opening up pretty hard


I’m on a high-profile project that has strict C-19 controls and almost all of our work permits were pulled today because one person on the Client side has possible symptoms and has been quarantined for testing

[Frank Drebin]

Speaking of Canada, Alberta’s cases are picking up speed. Fukn hope we can squash this chit down again, we had been opening up pretty hard


I’m on a high-profile project that has strict C-19 controls and almost all of our work permits were pulled today because one person on the Client side has possible symptoms and has been quarantined for testing

My employer has strict c19 controls as well as including 100% mask use on site. I was apprehensive at first cause it frankly feels weird to cover your face but now it makes me more comfortable wearing one out in public. I don't wear it for my protection as the risk is basically NIL but I see the old folks wearing them and I figure its the least i can do.

[Destor]

My employer has strict c19 controls as well as including 100% mask use on site. I like it actually and it makes me more comfortable wearing one out in public. I don't wear it for me as the risk is basically NIL but I see the old folks wearing them and I figure its the least i can do.

Same man, being forced to wear them during work has also made me far more comfortable wearing them in general. It definitely ain’t a bad thing, our perspectives are much the same

I don’t fear the virus at all on a personal level but really don’t want to spread it and really do not want more lockdowns

[Farley1324]

Using your accepted IFR of .65% that you patted yourself on the back for, YEAH thats what 8800 deaths works out to.

(1,360,000*.0065) equals what now? This is basic math here.

I don't believe Canada has 1.37 million cases.

BTW:

" However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents the true point estimate. It is likely that, due to age and perhaps underlying comorbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease. Given issues with mortality recording, it is also likely that this represents an underestimate of the true IFR figure. More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policy-making on this front."

[Frank Drebin]

I don't believe Canada has 1.37 million cases.

BTW:

" However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents the true point estimate. It is likely that, due to age and perhaps underlying comorbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease. Given issues with mortality recording, it is also likely that this represents an underestimate of the true IFR figure. More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policy-making on this front."

The CFR for the <49 age group is .13%, or 1/763.









CFR






















Including comorbidities


Do you believe USA has 10m cases? cause....using that ratio we would have about 1.3 m cases.

[Anachron]

My employer has strict c19 controls as well as including 100% mask use on site. I was apprehensive at first cause it frankly feels weird to cover your face but now it makes me more comfortable wearing one out in public. I don't wear it for my protection as the risk is basically NIL but I see the old folks wearing them and I figure its the least i can do.

Same man, being forced to wear them during work has also made me far more comfortable wearing them in general. It definitely ain’t a bad thing, our perspectives are much the same

I don’t fear the virus at all on a personal level but really don’t want to spread it and really do not want more lockdowns

Add one more to this bunch.

[Farley1324]

So it's only a few times deadlier to sub 49 than seasonal flu is to the whole population, in canada? Yeah that could be

Except I still don't believe canada has had almost 1.4 million cases

[Blasting]

Lol at these nerds still arguing over death rates.

[Destor]

Man India’s fukn curve



That’s gotta be like something right out of an epidemiology textbook

[PimpMasterC]

SARS2 damages not only the lungs, but the kidneys, liver, heart, brain and nervous system, skin and gastrointestinal tract, virtually every major system in the human body. It causes the blood to clot, the heart to lose healthy rhythm, the kidneys to shed blood and protein and the skin to erupt in rashes/swollen, purple "COVID" toes.
It causes headaches, dizziness, muscle aches, stomach pain and other symptoms along with classic respiratory symptoms like coughing and fever.
These clots can cause lethal strokes, cardiac arrest or can lodge in the lungs or legs. They clog the kidneys and interfere with dialysis treatments.
The virus gains entry into the body though ACE2 receptors. Cells lining the blood vessels, in the kidneys, the liver ducts, the pancreas, in the intestinal tract and lining the respiratory tract all are covered with ACE2 receptors.
>Damage to the pancreas can worsen diabetes
>SARS2 infection also activates the immune system. This includes the production of inflammatory proteins called cytokines. This inflammation can damage cells and organs and the so-called cytokine storm is one of the causes of severe symptoms.
>Blood clotting effects appear to be caused by several different mechanisms: direct damage of the cells lining the blood vessels and interference with the various clotting mechanisms in the blood itself. Low blood oxygen caused by pneumonia can make the blood more likely to clot.
>In the immune system, SARS2 can also deplete the T-cells the body usually deploys to fight off viral infections.
>Doctors need to treat all of these effects when coronavirus patients show up in the hospital.
archive.is/3hKzk

[PimpMasterC]

Potential Male Sterility

>Coronavirus can damage men's fertility by triggering changes to sperm-making cells in the testicles
>Researchers examined the testicular tissue of 2 men who died of coronavirus
>Ten of the 12 were positive for coronavirus in their lungs, but only one had virus in his testes.
>Although there were no signs of virus in the other's testes, cells involved in sperm production showed signs of damage and swelling that could impair fertility
>The most disturbing changes they found in men who were covid-positive were to the seminiferous tubules, small structures in the testes that produce and maintain sperm. Cells had 'ballooning' change, meaning they'd be come stretched and deformed.
>Although patients had normal spage while they were sick with coronavirus, the scientists are concerned that the damage to the seminiferous could lead to 'eventual reduced or even absent [sperm production] in patients who have recovered from COVID-19
>Because some cells in the testes have the same ACE2 receptors that allow the virus to attack lung cells, men have been warned not to donate sperm
>Men who had COVID-19 also had lower counts of Leydig cells, which pump out hormones needed in sperm production.
>And inflammation was seen throughout the testes
archive.is/lR8Lu

SARS-CoV-2 and the male reproductive system
>There is the theoretical possibility that testicular damage and subsequent infertility may result following SARS2 infection, and also the possibility of sexual transmission, as SARS-CoV-2 has been identified in the semen of infected patients
http://archive.is/ftKXB

SARS-CoV-2 Could Impact Male Fertility
>A first hypothesis is that the virus could enter the testicle and lead to alterations in testicular functionality
>A second hypothesis is that the binding of the virus to the ACE2 receptor, could cause an excess of ACE2 and give rise to a typical inflammatory response
http://archive.is/Ley3e

[resoog]

Not having the gym open is like not having a loved one for support. I need my strength

[PimpMasterC]

The fire rises! Usa might break new records today. Just poured myself a drink of rum to celebrate hitting 15 million worldwide and 4 million is murica. Waiting patiently to see if any records are beat today, it´s like waiting for the new years eve countdown. Cheers, we have come a long way

[HMFIC_BROWSIN]

Msnbc CEO: "hey, which azzhole put all these dr. trumpers on the interview list?!?"

[WeDoPullups]

The fire rises! Usa might break new records today. Just poured myself a drink of rum to celebrate hitting 15 million worldwide and 4 million is murica. Waiting patiently to see if any records are beat today, it´s like waiting for the new years eve countdown. Cheers, we have come a long way

You look exactly like I thought you'd look. Holy ****.

FYI, nobody reads your fear mongering bull****.

Why this thread is still stickied is baffling.

[WeDoPullups]

[PimpMasterC]

Lol this dude is clueless^^ Get up outta here, and take your micropenis with you

[Clide Whit]

Saw a midget today at my job reaching to turn a doorknob.

Only positive thing about wearing a mask was being able to laugh right in front of him and nobody being able to notice.

[Tears]

Saw a midget today at my job reaching to turn a doorknob.

Only positive thing about wearing a mask was being able to laugh right in front of him and nobody being able to notice.

****ing lol

[HMFIC_BROWSIN]

Masks are annoying af.

I'm getting tired of having to move it off my mouth every time I need to cough...