UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski discussion thread

[ispy]

Saturday, February 11
Early Prelims: 06:00 PM ET | Prelims: 08:00 PM EST | Main: 10:00 PM EST

https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-284
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter.../93764-ufc-284
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_284

Main card (ESPN+):

Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (Lightweight)
Yair Rodríguez vs. Josh Emmett (Featherweight)
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight)
Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter (Heavyweight)
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield (Light Heavyweight)

Preliminary card (ESPN / ESPN+):

Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight)
Joshua Culibao vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan (Featherweight)
Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (Flyweight)
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Francisco Prado (Lightweight)

Early preliminary card (ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass):

Jack Jenkins vs. Don Shainis (Featherweight)
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Elise Reed (Women's Strawweight)
Shane Young vs. Blake Bilder (Featherweight)
Zubaira Tukhugov vs. Elves Brenner (Lightweight)

[ninetynine8]

LETS GO ALEX AUSSIE OI OI FUK YE


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[PrimarisIn]

Dana said reportedly ppv pre buys are on track to beat Conor's records





Les gooo!!

[Barteh]

Dana said reportedly ppv pre buys are on track to beat Conor's records





Les gooo!!

Lmao Dana is so full of chit. Still a nice card though.

[akmerle]

Islam runs through Alex like a hot knife through butter. Islam is MASSIVE for 155, and Alex is small for 145. The size / weight discrepancy gives Islam too many advantages given the two fighter's styles.

Alex does not have power for 145, let alone at 155, and his reach will not enable him to get close enough to use any possible technical striking advantage. I honestly dont think Alex has much a striking advantage anyhow given how clean Islam stays, and Islam has better kicks.

So if Alex has to overextend to get into range, that will set up Islam to promptly take him down. If Alex somehow gets in close, then Islam clinches him up to trip / drag him down, or bullies him against the fence where the same thing happens.

Once grounded Islam will easily be able to control him with the simply irresistible Khabib / Dhagistani top game. Dynamic / explosive / powerful escapes to scramble that Alex can normally do will not work on Islam. Alex is not a threat from his back, so I think Islam finishes him however is most convenient.

I'm calling Round 2, Islam chokes Alex out cold (he is a warrior, and will not tap) via RNC after Alex tries to scramble out of G&P.

[PrimarisIn]

Islam runs through Alex like a hot knife through butter. Islam is MASSIVE for 155, and Alex is small for 145. The size / weight discrepancy gives Islam too many advantages given the two fighter's styles.

Alex does not have power for 145, let alone at 155, and his reach will not enable him to get close enough to use any possible technical striking advantage. I honestly dont think Alex has much a striking advantage anyhow given how clean Islam stays, and Islam has better kicks.

So if Alex has to overextend to get into range, that will set up Islam to promptly take him down. If Alex somehow gets in close, then Islam clinches him up to trip / drag him down, or bullies him against the fence where the same thing happens.

Once grounded Islam will easily be able to control him with the simply irresistible Khabib / Dhagistani top game. Dynamic / explosive / powerful escapes to scramble that Alex can normally do will not work on Islam. Alex is not a threat from his back, so I think Islam finishes him however is most convenient.

I'm calling Round 2, Islam chokes Alex out cold (he is a warrior, and will not tap) via RNC after Alex tries to scramble out of G&P.

Good analysis but something tells me Alex can pull off the upset even with facing the overwhelming odds.

The dude has been very zen and is on a 22 fight win streak.

[akmerle]

Good analysis but something tells me Alex can pull off the upset even with facing the overwhelming odds.

The dude has been very zen and is on a 22 fight win streak.

Very true, but so was Olivera while going 11-0 with actually finishing guys, and we all saw how that worked out.

I like Alex a lot, and really respect how he has cleaned out his division, but I fail to see a realistic path for him to finish Islam. Nor do I see a way he is able to last 5 Rounds, let alone win enough of those rounds to get the decision.

But hey, thats why they lock them in the cage and let them figure it out. Crazier things have certainly happened!

[achtungpanzer]

Let's fukkin go boyos. I am rooting for Volk but can't help but think that Makhachev is going to win. I hope I'm wrong

[ninetynine8]

Islam runs through Alex like a hot knife through butter. Islam is MASSIVE for 155, and Alex is small for 145. The size / weight discrepancy gives Islam too many advantages given the two fighter's styles.

Alex does not have power for 145, let alone at 155, and his reach will not enable him to get close enough to use any possible technical striking advantage. I honestly dont think Alex has much a striking advantage anyhow given how clean Islam stays, and Islam has better kicks.

So if Alex has to overextend to get into range, that will set up Islam to promptly take him down. If Alex somehow gets in close, then Islam clinches him up to trip / drag him down, or bullies him against the fence where the same thing happens.

Once grounded Islam will easily be able to control him with the simply irresistible Khabib / Dhagistani top game. Dynamic / explosive / powerful escapes to scramble that Alex can normally do will not work on Islam. Alex is not a threat from his back, so I think Islam finishes him however is most convenient.

I'm calling Round 2, Islam chokes Alex out cold (he is a warrior, and will not tap) via RNC after Alex tries to scramble out of G&P.

saying someone doesn't have power at x weight isn't a good argument because he could also have newfound strength by moving up in weight. Many such examples

[akmerle]

saying someone doesn't have power at x weight isn't a good argument because he could also have newfound strength by moving up in weight. Many such examples

I see your point, but that is not the case for the vast majority of fighters. In nearly all cases it is a function of a fighter cutting extreme amounts of weight, and fighting outside of a more natural weight class for them. That is NOT the case for 5'5" Alex who is small by even Featherweight standards.

[Lastro]

Islam chokes Alex out cold (he is a warrior, and will not tap) via RNC after Alex tries to scramble out of G&P.

thats what i think as well. volk got caught in 2 deep sub attempts against ortega off the scramble. if that was against islam, who probably has 3x the squeeze of ortega, he would have beem choked out

[Schnitzl]

I'm rooting for Alex but every piece of common sense says Islam by RNC round 1 or 2. They are just built different there in the mountains.

Also have

Emmett by decision
JDM by KO
Menifield
Pedro by vicious KO
Melsik by TKO
Kleydson SUB
Tukhugov

[iloveus]

Dana said reportedly ppv pre buys are on track to beat Conor's records

Didn't UFC raise the PPV price to like $100?

Then you have to pay for ESPN+ or UFC Fight Pass on top of it.

Idk man...

[ninetynine8]

I see your point, but that is not the case for the vast majority of fighters. In nearly all cases it is a function of a fighter cutting extreme amounts of weight, and fighting outside of a more natural weight class for them. That is NOT the case for 5'5" Alex who is small by even Featherweight standards.

alex isn't small for his weightclass, he's short which is a big diff. It's not like he's fighting anyone taller than he's used to. He even has a longer reach btw

[ispy]

volkanovski used to play rugby, and was close to 200lbs back in those days: https://talksport.com/sport/rugby-le...eague-ufc-273/


on a side note: yair still has plenty of time to pull out of his fight

[blazenbb]

volkanovski used to play rugby, and was close to 200lbs back in those days: https://talksport.com/sport/rugby-le...eague-ufc-273/

Lmao at them saying he was 200. Just like the rock being 6’5”

[CanardMedic]

Excited but also not really.
Volk has cleaned up his division and made Max look average in the last fight, he made Zombie like he didn't belong with him in the cage. The dude is the perfect fighter at 145 lbs or under.

I don't see Volk winning, not by a tko, decision nor a submission. The dude is simply too small compared to Islam. He will not stop the take down and will not get back up.
GnP for 5 rounds by Islam.

[adamsz]

don't see volk lasting more than 2 rounds considering Ortega damn near submitted him, and Ortega is an absolute twink compared to Islam

[superman704]

Brutal if true

[Schnitzl]

Damn, I'm looking up stats on Craig Jones (Volk's jits coach) and he has a career 46% submissions from heel & footlocks. 30% inside heel hook. Volk showed this in open workouts as well, maybe an omen of things to come?

https://www.bjjheroes.com/bjj-fighters/jones

What's the betting line on Volk getting it done via. heel hook? Might be good to throw a tenner on it to win $5000 or something lol. Who the fook knows nomsayan?

[Gringo12]

My mate in rl is fighting on this card (jack della)

Islam is gonna destroy volk. Will be surprised if it goes passed the first one. Islam is huge, a world class grappler and to make things worse, he's south paw. That takes out volks leg kicks which are some of his best weapons, and he'll have to overextend to land his right. Everything points to a take down.

Volks never fought a south paw, he's never fought a grappler even close to Islam's level , and his win streak in fw is basically an old aldo and Holloway 3 times. He also doesn't have ko power, he's not out striking Islam for 3 rounds.

Anything outside of a perfectly timed knee or a lucky shot, this fights a wash


Islam
Emmett
Della

[ninetynine8]

idk man i think ppl are underestimating volk, i think he'll put on the size better than most people do going up. Just seems like his bulldog frame will work well against islam

[akmerle]

Damn, I'm looking up stats on Craig Jones (Volk's jits coach) and he has a career 46% submissions from heel & footlocks. 30% inside heel hook. Volk showed this in open workouts as well, maybe an omen of things to come?

https://www.bjjheroes.com/bjj-fighters/jones

What's the betting line on Volk getting it done via. heel hook? Might be good to throw a tenner on it to win $5000 or something lol. Who the fook knows nomsayan?

The modern sport bjj leg lock game does not translate well at all to MMA. From the entries all the way to the finish, you are VERY open to strikes.

It would be hilarious tho to see Alex sit to guard and butt scoot, lol.

[Gainzzz]

Islam runs through Alex like a hot knife through butter. Islam is MASSIVE for 155, and Alex is small for 145. The size / weight discrepancy gives Islam too many advantages given the two fighter's styles.

Alex does not have power for 145, let alone at 155, and his reach will not enable him to get close enough to use any possible technical striking advantage. I honestly dont think Alex has much a striking advantage anyhow given how clean Islam stays, and Islam has better kicks.

So if Alex has to overextend to get into range, that will set up Islam to promptly take him down. If Alex somehow gets in close, then Islam clinches him up to trip / drag him down, or bullies him against the fence where the same thing happens.

Once grounded Islam will easily be able to control him with the simply irresistible Khabib / Dhagistani top game. Dynamic / explosive / powerful escapes to scramble that Alex can normally do will not work on Islam. Alex is not a threat from his back, so I think Islam finishes him however is most convenient.

I'm calling Round 2, Islam chokes Alex out cold (he is a warrior, and will not tap) via RNC after Alex tries to scramble out of G&P.

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. I don't think Volk has a chance outside of a fluke accident. The size is just too much. It's either going to be a 5 round beatdown with Volk surviving on pure heart and toughness or a submission after Volk gets smothered for several minutes.

Other picks:

Yair - more polished striker but Emmett definitely has high level striking of his own and serious power
Brown - going with my gut and picking Brown. Even if Jack wins I'm still not buying the hype, I think the top guys would toss his salad, wait wut


The card isn't really that good in all honesty. Not many fights I'm interested in. Shame it lost Whittaker/Costa.

[bjl0v3s]

Just put down $1k on Volk and see if he can pull an upset. Wish me luck bois 😉

[ispy]

ceremonial weigh-ins


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF_WZxQPqwk

[Cartiac]

Islam runs through Alex like a hot knife through butter. Islam is MASSIVE for 155, and Alex is small for 145. The size / weight discrepancy gives Islam too many advantages given the two fighter's styles.

Alex does not have power for 145, let alone at 155, and his reach will not enable him to get close enough to use any possible technical striking advantage. I honestly dont think Alex has much a striking advantage anyhow given how clean Islam stays, and Islam has better kicks.

So if Alex has to overextend to get into range, that will set up Islam to promptly take him down. If Alex somehow gets in close, then Islam clinches him up to trip / drag him down, or bullies him against the fence where the same thing happens.

Once grounded Islam will easily be able to control him with the simply irresistible Khabib / Dhagistani top game. Dynamic / explosive / powerful escapes to scramble that Alex can normally do will not work on Islam. Alex is not a threat from his back, so I think Islam finishes him however is most convenient.

I'm calling Round 2, Islam chokes Alex out cold (he is a warrior, and will not tap) via RNC after Alex tries to scramble out of G&P.

That is pretty much it right there. You have to respect Volk for wanting this challenge. He is a great fighter and anything can happen, but it is really hard to see how he gets the better of Islam, other than maybe some luckh elbow shot in a scramble. A very short, high volume, low power striker stepping up in weight class seems like the perfect gift for Islam who is the hardest fighter to touch in UFC history.

He also uses fighters' years of wrestling TDD training against them using more judo than wrestling so while his opponents are worried about defending leg attacks as you typically do against wrestlers, Islam actually wants an upper body clinch to execute up his takedowns from a safe position. If you underhook Islam (is Alex even tall enough to effectively underhook Islam?) trying to establish body control to protect from leg attacks, you've played right into his judo and he will use it against you as the leverage point to put you down. Of course if you don't underhook he will quickly drop and wrap you up in a double leg.

To really establish himself in this moment Islam can't just drop and choke like he did against Charles. Volk challenging Islam is insulting. Volk would not have challenged Khabib like this. Islam needs to send a message and throw this little guy around, break him down, make him bleed, and beat him into the mat until he quits or the ref pulls him off so opponents stop seeing him as a scared, mini Khabib and start fearing him.

[TheDeeJ]

Volk challenging Islam is insulting. Volk would not have challenged Khabib like this. Islam needs to send a message and throw this little guy around, break him down, make him bleed, and beat him into the mat until he quits or the ref pulls him off so opponents stop seeing him as a scared, mini Khabib and start fearing him.

To be fair he was going to fight Olivera as well if he had won. The guy just wants the next challenge.

[thatsnarf]

gonna throw 100 on volk. he winning this. double that up and more

[BalkanPrince]

It's one of those main events where u cannot even imagine one losing. They are both that good and talented. Islam will probably take it but man will it be a war with a monster like Volk.