When will the NASDAQ hit 16,057?

[gachase21]

Looking at time for recovery, when do you think the NASDAQ will hit its all time closing high set November 19, 2021??

Yes I know there was an intra day high of 16,212 on Nov 22nd 2021.

All time closing high 16,057.44
Today it closed 10,867.93
-5189.51 from all time high
-47.75% from all time high



When will be be back?


Poll incoming….


Will the infrastructure bill and inflation reduction act save us soon libs?

[Fishman15]

Looking at time for recovery, when do you think the NASDAQ will hit its all time closing high set November 19, 2021??

Yes I know there was an intra day high of 16,212 on Nov 22nd 2021.

All time closing high 16,057.44
Today it closed 10,867.93
-5189.51 from all time high
-47.75% from all time high



When will be be back?


Poll incoming….


Will the infrastructure bill and inflation reduction act save us soon libs?

Probably not in our lifetime with what the marxists are doing to the country. Really fcking with my early retirement plans. Thanks Paydo Joe...

[gachase21]

Probably not in our lifetime with what the marxists are doing to the country. Really fcking with my early retirement plans. Thanks Paydo Joe...

Will be interesting what average retirement age is moved to over the next three years, as well as the number of retirees returning to work force.

[frankdtank20]

It has to test 9600 first. And it will.

To answer your question OP, I'd say 2027. Ask me in a couple of years which quarter.

[JaundiceBiscuit]

Looking at time for recovery, when do you think the NASDAQ will hit its all time closing high set November 19, 2021??

Yes I know there was an intra day high of 16,212 on Nov 22nd 2021.

All time closing high 16,057.44
Today it closed 10,867.93
-5189.51 from all time high
-47.75% from all time high



When will be be back?


Poll incoming….


Will the infrastructure bill and inflation reduction act save us soon libs?

My guess would be early 2024 maybe even later.

Will be interesting what average retirement age is moved to over the next three years, as well as the number of retirees returning to work force.

What I am seeing with my father (65) and his old college buddies is that they are watching the world around them in horror. They see that their white sons are getting trashed in the media and leap frogged at work under the guise of diversity equity and inclusion. They see inflation running rampant, cars and houses becoming unaffordable for young families. My dad and his friends are delaying retirement not because they don’t have enough money but because they are making so much that they dont want to walk away from it and they dont know if their kids will ever make as much as them. They want to bank more to ensure a better future for their kids and grandkids to better safeguard them from our idiot politicians and their woke agenda.

[GeorgeFloyd]

took till 2012 to recover from .com bubble and this was a way more radical upswing. I am being very very optimistic and saying 2nd 2025. If either Trump or Desantis are elected I think it is much more likely to be up by 2025, if there are 2 democrat regimes in a row then it is over for the US economy frankly

[gachase21]

took till 2012 to recover from .com bubble and this was a way more radical upswing. I am being very very optimistic and saying 2nd 2025. If either Trump or Desantis are elected I think it is much more likely to be up by 2025, if there are 2 democrat regimes in a row then it is over for the US economy frankly

I actually meant to click second half - but clicked first half -but all the same optimism bet.


-post election year politicians juice system trying to hold a promise- it seems to be a March trend.

- Jerome Powell - and the others -works on self wealth preservation as he finalize the last year of his term

- All these 2 year bonds being purchased now, and over the next 6 months coming - begin to mature, and re-enter the securities system.

-The advantage will have on our strength compared to western Europe and Asia coming out of this - trade/currency advantage later.- excessive outsource cheap labor counteracting our internal wage pressure.

-deadlocked Congress the next two years

[JayJ350]

I think that depends upon how long the democrats are in power

[greenleaf]

No money printing, no new high

[miscallday12]

The economy in the modern world moves fast as fuq.

ATH came out of nowhere.

I would say more predicted the crash, but it def caught a bunch of ppl off guard.

IMO recovery is gonna come much faster than ppl are expecting.

[Procta]

gonna have be some major policy changes made in 2025 to start chipping away at

[Abzu]

Fed says 4.5 by year end, they say .75 in Nov and .50 in Dec but it will likely be .50 in Nov and .25 in Dec, in Oct markets bottom and turn higher until 2023 front running the news.

They say rate cuts starting in 2024 with 4 and continuing into 2025 with 4 more but the cuts likely begin in the 2nd half of 2023.

They project GDP to be .2%, 1.2% 2023 and 1.7% 2024, GDP will be lower in 2023 but will rise in/to 2024.



If the Fed starts cutting rates in the 2nd half of 2023 then I would think we would be likely to break ATH within 3-4 quarters, this would coincide with the next presidential election lol.

[frankdtank20]

It has to test 9600 first. And it will.

To answer your question OP, I'd say 2027. Ask me in a couple of years which quarter.

Changed my mind since I wrote that. I think it will happen sooner than 2027.

[Bushmaster]

Looking at time for recovery, when do you think the NASDAQ will hit its all time closing high set November 19, 2021??

Yes I know there was an intra day high of 16,212 on Nov 22nd 2021.

All time closing high 16,057.44
Today it closed 10,867.93
-5189.51 from all time high
-47.75% from all time high



When will be be back?


Poll incoming….


Will the infrastructure bill and inflation reduction act save us soon libs?

Meh, who cares.... Biden won the election and that's all that matters.

Right libs?

[gachase21]

Mid February 2023 update:

Nasdaq is $11787 -$4270 from Nov 22nd 2021 high -26.6%

[gachase21]

If the Fed starts cutting rates in the 2nd half of 2023

This won’t happen for sure

[gachase21]

$11,492.30 today - we aren’t making good progress


$4,565.14 more to go to get pre-inflation even

[Azrairc]

I got about 50k in cash, good bet to buy in now?

[gachase21]

I got about 50k in cash, good bet to buy in now?

That depends- how long you plan to hold, would there be any reasons you to to access the cash, what the reminder of your portfolio looks like, etc.


If you are planning to hold 5 years, then fuk yea



Shorter? Treasuries are good for a short bit here….

[Azrairc]

That depends- how long you plan to hold, would there be any reasons you to to access the cash, what the reminder of your portfolio looks like, etc.


If you are planning to hold 5 years, then fuk yea



Shorter? Treasuries are good for a short bit here….

looking at 5 year plus. Don't have much of a portfolio lol. about 4k in a roth and a random 4k in DJI

was keeping the cash to buy a house but looks like it's out of the question. Still got a place rent free though.

So after I recently gave up on the house plan I just got the cash sitting. Figured I can just put my savings in something and throw in any extra cash I can. Maybe if 5 years I can afford a small house with cash outright, or got a downpayment ready to go.

Just looking at the a interest calculator 5-10% a year doesn't move the needle too much, even if I'm throwing in a couple k per month but it's better than nothing. Would be really great if I got lucky and with something (like a value NASDAQ MAY be) and perhaps hit 15% + over 5 years

Got 80k now but figured I need to siphon of 10k to cover car debt first, another 20k in emergency fund. Not sure if IT would be better to throw in the lot of it now and maintain my bills while keeping a smaller emergency fund and (there by adding a little less over time) until funds are replenished/debts are paid off

[gachase21]

looking at 5 year plus. Don't have much of a portfolio lol. about 4k in a roth and a random 4k in DJI

was keeping the cash to buy a house but looks like it's out of the question. Still got a place rent free though.

So after I recently gave up on the house plan I just got the cash sitting. Figured I can just put my savings in something and throw in any extra cash I can. Maybe if 5 years I can afford a small house with cash outright, or got a downpayment ready to go.

Just looking at the a interest calculator 5-10% a year doesn't move the needle too much, even if I'm throwing in a couple k per month but it's better than nothing. Would be really great if I got lucky and with something (like a value NASDAQ MAY be) and perhaps hit 15% + over 5 years

Got 80k now but figured I need to siphon of 10k to cover car debt first, another 20k in emergency fund. Not sure if IT would be better to throw in the lot of it now and maintain my bills while keeping a smaller emergency fund and (there by adding a little less over time) until funds are replenished/debts are paid off

Repeat of 2013 post….



Old related post for "normally what do"

For the kids ITT wondering “wut do?”

I’ll pretty much sill stick with my 2013 post

I'm going to make this list based on the assumption you will get kids and a wife at some point

FIRST OF ALL- PLAN YOUR MONTHLY BUDGET, AND LIVE BY IT(20% LESS THAN YOUR BRING HOME MONTHLY INCOME)

Then follow these steps, do not proceed to the next step until the previous step is complete

1. Acquire life insurance- 20 yrs or longer-term(not the whole life crap) you want it to last long enough until your youngest is 18, so if you don't have kids yet, maybe get a 30yr term now. You want to get it while your younger and health

2. Acquire long term disability insurance. This one is debatable, I personally would get it.

3. Save an emergency fund- enough liquidity for you to go 6 months without working if something happens

4. eliminate all debt(except in some cases home mortgage)- math will tell you some debt is ok, whatever- buy it or do without

5. start a Roth IRA or regular IRA depending on what you qualify for. If you qualify for a Roth, do it, once you make enough money, you will no longer qualify for it. Save 15% towards retirement

6. If you are living by the above budget(20% less than monthly bring home) you should start acquiring excess money monthly to either buy a house with or invest more aggressively. This is also the money you can start your own business with.

Since you are still single, you have the opportunity to be smart about your pick for a spouse. You can find someone you love of course, but there are plenty to choose from that are also financially conservative, and make money. Get their credit report before you get serious. I know love is love, but there are millions to choose from that keep their money in order.

Now I’d add if you have an employer matching 401(k) contributions do that first


If you aren’t market savvy stick with index fund etf’s

For the ira, I’d go with the above or a targeted retirement fund such as vanguard’s

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...-retirement/#/



As far as timing goes stick with dollar-cost averaging and disregard these swings.



Also never mix political beliefs with investing.

Also disregarded all the currency and economic doomsayer's here









I’d make sure you have step 3 filled - at least 3 months



Rereading your edit- you could put a portion of what would be your emergency in some treasuries/ also I wouldn’t count on these things getting you a 15% per year return, even though they are at a dip right now.

You might get a one time 15% shot- or not


You could put your a few years later house down payment money in some treasuries right now.


Reminder in market - instead of replenishing, your cash reserves with dollar cost averaging -purchase into the market with dollar cost averaging - maintain your cash reserve.


We may test 2022 bottoms again - I think S&P might , I got S&P dipping again - then finishing year 4300ish but who knows

[Azrairc]

Repeat of 2013 post….



Old related post for "normally what do"




Also disregarded all the currency and economic doomsayer's here









I’d make sure you have step 3 filled - at least 3 months

seems like it's geared toward more of retirement is it not?

started a budget of every dollar accounting at the beginning of this year and is quite depressing on how hard I have to tighten down to make a profit. That can be somewhat improved by upping income, taking additional jobs, etc.

anyways with my income I'm in a either or predicament. If I focus on retirements/roths/IRA I don't see a viable path to home ownership. Could always die before you have a chance to retire too, so homeownership (outright) seems like a better path. Like a small starter but actually forever home and than catching up on retirement instead of having a mortgage until I'm nearly 70

[gachase21]

seems like it's geared toward more of retirement is it not?

started a budget of every dollar accounting at the beginning of this year and is quite depressing on how hard I have to tighten down to make a profit. That can be somewhat improved by upping income, taking additional jobs, etc.

anyways with my income I'm in a either or predicament. If I focus on retirements/roths/IRA I don't see a viable path to home ownership. Could always die before you have a chance to retire too, so homeownership (outright) seems like a better path. Like a small starter but actually forever home and than catching up on retirement instead of having a mortgage until I'm nearly 70

Will this be a 1st time home purchase?

How long have you had the Roth?

Are you married filling joint or single?

[Azrairc]

Will this be a 1st time home purchase?

How long have you had the Roth?

Are you married filling joint or single?

1. IDK I own property that had a dilapidated house, so that may techniqually count as my "First house"

2. over 5 years

3. single, looking like I won't be getting married anytime soon out of fear

FYI stopped in Walterboro last time going through GA, seems like a cheap place I'd wouldn't mind eventually living in. Somewhere like that I'd be looking for a house eventually in the 150-200k range

[gachase21]

Here is what I got in my head for us Az

1. You can use up to 10k from a Roth tax and penalty free to purchase your 1st home

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/retir...home-purchase/

2. You can still max contribute last years Roth amount - and this year.

Deadline for Roth IRA contributions
You can make Roth IRA contributions up to the deadline for tax returns. If you have not exhausted the contribution limit by the end of the calendar year, you still have other three-and-half months from January 1 and April 15 to max out your contributions.

You can use the additional three-and-half months to max out your Roth IRA contributions if you did not get around to making contributions in the tax year, or if you received a windfall early in the next year before the tax deadline.

https://meetbeagle.com/resources/pos...a-contribution

https://www.investopedia.com/can-you...-taxes-4770667

So what you could do…

-Put up to 13k of that 50k in your Roth - max last year and this year minus what you may have already contributed. - go balls deep with all that 13 in stocks

Keep 12 k of that 50k as a cash reserve emergency fund.

Put 10k of that 50 k in us treasuries for the remaining cash emergency fund.

Use the remaining 15k as open market investment speculative money (I.e buying Nasdaq or S&P 500 index)


When you get ready for house take from 10k from Roth and treasuries first - then remaining open market if you past into the long term capital gains threshold.

If you got lucky enough at work end market - leave all in Roth.

And yes- max income everyway possible.

[gachase21]

1. IDK I own property that had a dilapidated house, so that may techniqually count as my "First house"

2. over 5 years

3. single, looking like I won't be getting married anytime soon out of fear

FYI stopped in Walterboro last time going through GA, seems like a cheap place I'd wouldn't mind eventually living in. Somewhere like that I'd be looking for a house eventually in the 150-200k range

Most likely not if it’s not a “principe home”

First-time homebuyer. Generally, you are a first-time homebuyer if you had no present interest in a main home during the 2-year period ending on the date of acquisition of the home which the distribution is being used to buy, build, or rebuild. If you are married, your spouse must also meet this no-ownership requirement.

Page 27

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p590b.pdf




Edit: GA?

https://www.dca.ga.gov/safe-affordab...eam/homebuyers

[Abzu]

Fed says 4.5 by year end, they say .75 in Nov and .50 in Dec but it will likely be .50 in Nov and .25 in Dec, in Oct markets bottom and turn higher until 2023 front running the news.

They say rate cuts starting in 2024 with 4 and continuing into 2025 with 4 more but the cuts likely begin in the 2nd half of 2023.

They project GDP to be .2%, 1.2% 2023 and 1.7% 2024, GDP will be lower in 2023 but will rise in/to 2024.



If the Fed starts cutting rates in the 2nd half of 2023 then I would think we would be likely to break ATH within 3-4 quarters, this would coincide with the next presidential election lol.

Lol.

5 months later and I still believe all of this.

I was wrong about the Fed moving to .50 rate hikes in Nov and .25 in Dec, they didn't begin .50 until Dec, the didn't begin .25 until Jan so It turns out I was off by 1 meeting lol, I'd say that's pretty good.



SPY bottomed in OCT around 348 btw.

This won’t happen for sure

Why do you think there is a 100% chance the Fed won't cut rates 2nd half of 2023?

[gachase21]

Lol.

5 months later and I still believe all of this.

I was wrong about the Fed moving to .50 rate hikes in Nov and .25 in Dec, they didn't begin .50 until Dec, the didn't begin .25 until Jan so It turns out I was off by 1 meeting lol, I'd say that's pretty good.



SPY bottomed in OCT around 348 btw.



Why do you think there is a 100% chance the Fed won't cut rates 2nd half of 2023?

This was my prediction on r/p discord October 6th 2022






I’ve been right until now - I’m about to be wrong in march.

The Fed has been reiterating every meeting until their blue in the face. Yes, we are going to raise them and yes, we are going to hold them for a considerable amount of time.

And then reporters keep asking for some little semblance, wink nod, or something that “yeah, but that actually won’t happen”

Based on the feds history, people just don’t believe it.

The feds going to maintain - at a minimum - make sure it holds for a while.

The Fed is going to prove to the doubters they will hold just to make a damn point
Lol -

First possible rate cut is spring 2024 IMO


The Fed will have ammo with the still strong labor market as well - and US is position much better than the rest of the world on the re-emerge boom.

There is also large sections of remaining consumers, and businesses- with strong balance sheets that can carry inflation a tad bit longer. Especially ones that locked in low interest long term debt prior to hikes.


A large degree of separation between the “haves” and “have nots” at the haves can carry inflation.

[gachase21]

One more thing AZ- when I have saved buy treasuries this is what I mean


https://www.treasurydirect.gov/


You probably should just put 10k of the treasury amount. I was talking about in this.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/

[gachase21]

Around 13570 today, made up some ground- still a long way to go.

A chunk of the gain has been in nvidia and Tesla


Just barley passed the number it was the day Biden took office.....