Fantasy Football discussion 2022

[Jayarbie]

At 0-4 I am desperate and can't afford another loss. When Jonathan Taylor was ruled out yesterday that meant I needed to make a trade. I was able to pull off the following:

Taylor and Mclaurin for McCaffrey and Pittman. The guy I traded Taylor to already has Hines which is why I think he was OK with it. Don't feel great about it, but it at least gives me a chance of winning this week instead of a guaranteed 0-5. Thoughts?

I like it, TBH. You're taking on risk with McCaffrey, but the risk is all health related since he hasn't made it through the last two seasons and always seems to be nicked up. If he stays healthy, the upside of his volume means he basically has an RB1 floor when he's playing. Pittman is a beast. He's someone I targeted in drafts and got sniped at least twice a pick or two before I was going to take him. If they get better QB play (and Ryan can be better), he'll be an easy WR1, too. So, you took on some risk for a great upside, but that's what you have to do at 0-4 to try to turn it around. If it doesn't work out and McCaffrey gets hurt and the Colts offense completely goes in the tank, then oh well, at least you took a shot at it.

[Jayarbie]

My big decision this week is for a PPR flex spot between Bateman, Pickens, and Etienne. I've been using Bateman all season, but he's dinged up now and might be ruled out. Even if he's not, I feel like I should bench him anyway instead of playing hurt. I feel like Pickens and Etienne are both in good blow up spots this week. Pickett loves Pickens and will throw downfield more than Trubisky (and if there is a weakness on the Buffalo D, it's the corners due to injury). With Etienne, Robinson's recovery makes his production far more volatile that I was counting on, but he is still the more explosive of the two and he is going to have a blow up game at some point this year. Houston is the worst team in the league in terms of giving up fantasy points to RBs, so this looks like a good spot for it. I'm leaning towards Etienne here, but I'm open to suggestions. Other guys on my bench are Mooney, Pacheco, and Huntley, but I'm not really inclined to consider any of them.

[Murph0408]

My big decision this week is for a PPR flex spot between Bateman, Pickens, and Etienne. I've been using Bateman all season, but he's dinged up now and might be ruled out. Even if he's not, I feel like I should bench him anyway instead of playing hurt. I feel like Pickens and Etienne are both in good blow up spots this week. Pickett loves Pickens and will throw downfield more than Trubisky (and if there is a weakness on the Buffalo D, it's the corners due to injury). With Etienne, Robinson's recovery makes his production far more volatile that I was counting on, but he is still the more explosive of the two and he is going to have a blow up game at some point this year. Houston is the worst team in the league in terms of giving up fantasy points to RBs, so this looks like a good spot for it. I'm leaning towards Etienne here, but I'm open to suggestions. Other guys on my bench are Mooney, Pacheco, and Huntley, but I'm not really inclined to consider any of them.

first two weeks Pickens had 2-3 targets. last two weeks he's had 7-8 targets.

even before the QB switch he was creeping his way into Tomlin's gameplan. That trend might keep going in that direction. Pittsburgh will need to throw vs Buff.

[sandcar3]

I like it, TBH. You're taking on risk with McCaffrey, but the risk is all health related since he hasn't made it through the last two seasons and always seems to be nicked up. If he stays healthy, the upside of his volume means he basically has an RB1 floor when he's playing. Pittman is a beast. He's someone I targeted in drafts and got sniped at least twice a pick or two before I was going to take him. If they get better QB play (and Ryan can be better), he'll be an easy WR1, too. So, you took on some risk for a great upside, but that's what you have to do at 0-4 to try to turn it around. If it doesn't work out and McCaffrey gets hurt and the Colts offense completely goes in the tank, then oh well, at least you took a shot at it.

Appreciate the response, and making me feel better about this trade

My big decision this week is for a PPR flex spot between Bateman, Pickens, and Etienne. I've been using Bateman all season, but he's dinged up now and might be ruled out. Even if he's not, I feel like I should bench him anyway instead of playing hurt. I feel like Pickens and Etienne are both in good blow up spots this week. Pickett loves Pickens and will throw downfield more than Trubisky (and if there is a weakness on the Buffalo D, it's the corners due to injury). With Etienne, Robinson's recovery makes his production far more volatile that I was counting on, but he is still the more explosive of the two and he is going to have a blow up game at some point this year. Houston is the worst team in the league in terms of giving up fantasy points to RBs, so this looks like a good spot for it. I'm leaning towards Etienne here, but I'm open to suggestions. Other guys on my bench are Mooney, Pacheco, and Huntley, but I'm not really inclined to consider any of them.

Agree with everything you said, and I'd likely go Etienne just for the safer floor. Give Pickett to Pickens another week to see how they look.

[tripod29]

At 0-4 I am desperate and can't afford another loss. When Jonathan Taylor was ruled out yesterday that meant I needed to make a trade. I was able to pull off the following:

Taylor and Mclaurin for McCaffrey and Pittman. The guy I traded Taylor to already has Hines which is why I think he was OK with it. Don't feel great about it, but it at least gives me a chance of winning this week instead of a guaranteed 0-5. Thoughts?

All things considered, this isn't a bad deal for you at all.

[Jayarbie]

first two weeks Pickens had 2-3 targets. last two weeks he's had 7-8 targets.

even before the QB switch he was creeping his way into Tomlin's gameplan. That trend might keep going in that direction. Pittsburgh will need to throw vs Buff.

Appreciate the response, and making me feel better about this trade



Agree with everything you said, and I'd likely go Etienne just for the safer floor. Give Pickett to Pickens another week to see how they look.

Thanks, guys (both on spread).

[Jayarbie]

first two weeks Pickens had 2-3 targets. last two weeks he's had 7-8 targets.

even before the QB switch he was creeping his way into Tomlin's gameplan. That trend might keep going in that direction. Pittsburgh will need to throw vs Buff.

Yeah, after the second game, they said they need to get him more involved, and then right at the start of the next game, he made that sick one handed grab, and I think Tomlin decided he was right about that, but Trubisky still couldn't get him the ball effectively (it was a better last week, though, after Pickett came in). I think there is a good chance Pickens will be a full time starter by the end of the season, but for this week, I'm still worried about the volatility.

[dyee4613]

My big decision this week is for a PPR flex spot between Bateman, Pickens, and Etienne. I've been using Bateman all season, but he's dinged up now and might be ruled out. Even if he's not, I feel like I should bench him anyway instead of playing hurt. I feel like Pickens and Etienne are both in good blow up spots this week. Pickett loves Pickens and will throw downfield more than Trubisky (and if there is a weakness on the Buffalo D, it's the corners due to injury). With Etienne, Robinson's recovery makes his production far more volatile that I was counting on, but he is still the more explosive of the two and he is going to have a blow up game at some point this year. Houston is the worst team in the league in terms of giving up fantasy points to RBs, so this looks like a good spot for it. I'm leaning towards Etienne here, but I'm open to suggestions. Other guys on my bench are Mooney, Pacheco, and Huntley, but I'm not really inclined to consider any of them.

Pickens, IMO. Steelers will be blown out and I think they're realizing Dionte is not that dude.

[Jayarbie]

Pickens, IMO. Steelers will be blown out and I think they're realizing Dionte is not that dude.

Diontae may or may not be that dude, but his role is different anyway. Diontae is a possession receiver (who drops the ball too much, LOL). Claypool is supposed to be the downfield target, and he's more directly who Pickens is competing for targets with, but Claypool is even less "that dude" than Diontae, and Pickett is more likely to look downfield than Trubisky, so all signs are pointing up for Pickens, but regardless, it's tough to trust a rookie with a rookie QB. Anyway, thanks. I have some thinking to do about this one.

[2010JW]

Should I trade my J. Herbert for Deandre Swift? for that team, my main starter is Jalen Hurts

[SoutheastBeast1]

Pickens, IMO. Steelers will be blown out and I think they're realizing Dionte is not that dude.

Not sure how you've drawn this conclusion. He's been amazing for years with a garbage QB. Sure it's been a rocky start this year, but it's because this team has it's head up it's ass rather than anything to do with him.

What exactly has Pickens done that's better? 11 receptions on 20 targets isn't very good. Yeah he's hit some home run balls that have propped him up and caught people's attention because of the highlight reel but that's about it. Johnson 23 receptions on 37 targets still seems far superior to me.

The problem is the offense does not move this ball. Najee Harris hasn't been getting jack sh*t either this year. Is Harris also "not that dude"??


Aside from the fact Johnson's TDs are down he looks fine. No one is getting into the end zone for Pitt. Pickens included. And Johnson is far more likely than Pickens to find it.

[SoutheastBeast1]

If anyone is a threat to steal end zone grabs from Johnson its Friermuth btw.

[Jayarbie]

Not sure how you've drawn this conclusion. He's been amazing for years with a garbage QB. Sure it's been a rocky start this year, but it's because this team has it's head up it's ass rather than anything to do with him.

What exactly has Pickens done that's better? 11 receptions on 20 targets isn't very good. Yeah he's hit some home run balls that have propped him up and caught people's attention because of the highlight reel but that's about it. Johnson 23 receptions on 37 targets still seems far superior to me.

The problem is the offense does not move this ball. Najee Harris hasn't been getting jack sh*t either this year. Is Harris also "not that dude"??


Aside from the fact Johnson's TDs are down he looks fine. No one is getting into the end zone for Pitt. Pickens included. And Johnson is far more likely than Pickens to find it.

Johnson has had the dropsies since he came into the league.

[WHChampion]

This year has been brutal if you didn't get one of the top 6-7 QBs. Dak and Lance injuries. Rodgers and Brady slow starts. Russ and Stafford have just been awful.

Used to see only 0-1 QBs gone before round 5 but I think that's going to change next year.

[Jayarbie]

This year has been brutal if you didn't get one of the top 6-7 QBs. Dak and Lance injuries. Rodgers and Brady slow starts. Russ and Stafford have just been awful.

Used to see only 0-1 QBs gone before round 5 but I think that's going to change next year.

In 2 of my 3 drafts, I made a conscious decision to take a QB way earlier than I typically do and took Allen in the 3rd and Hurts in the 5th. So glad I did.

In the other, I took Lance in the 10th, which I thought was a steal, and Tua in the 14th or 15th or something as a backup. I made the fortuitous call to bench Lance for Tua the week Lance got hurt and Tua torched the Ratbirds, but then a week later, I'm searching for answers again with Lawrence as a stop gap. I'm hoping Tua comes back (as much for just hoping there's no lasting brain damage that forces him to retire) and I can rotate Tua and Lawrence effectively enough to stay on top.

Two teams are 3-1 and the other 4-0, so it's working fine so far.

[SoutheastBeast1]

This year has been brutal if you didn't get one of the top 6-7 QBs. Dak and Lance injuries. Rodgers and Brady slow starts. Russ and Stafford have just been awful.

Used to see only 0-1 QBs gone before round 5 but I think that's going to change next year.

Nah

The flip side is you got guys like Jeff Goff on the waiver wire throwing up top 5 numbers

[SoutheastBeast1]

While on the subject of Johnson, pick 2 to start out of these 3:

Diontae Johnson - @BUF
Allan Lazard - NYG
Josh Reynolds (let's assume St. Brown is inactive as well; Chark is already out) - @NE

[WHChampion]

Nah

The flip side is you got guys like Jeff Goff on the waiver wire throwing up top 5 numbers

Goff has been fine but Wentz was also putting up good numbers until he didn't. So many of those round 4-6 guys bust that it doesn't seem like a bad idea to grab a QB with overall QB1 upside.

[SoutheastBeast1]

Also if Montgomery sits, which 2 do you start out of these 3?

Herbert
CEH
Singletary

[tripod29]

Mostert or Gallup at flex in a full ppr?

Also if Montgomery sits, which 2 do you start out of these 3?

Herbert
CEH
Singletary

Herbert for sure.....and singletary

[dyee4613]

Mostert or Gallup at flex in a full ppr?






Herbert for sure.....and singletary

Mosert. Gallup has Cooper rush and hasn't done anything yet.

Also if Montgomery sits, which 2 do you start out of these 3?

Herbert
CEH
Singletary

Herbert/CEH. I think they're both much better options than singletary.

While on the subject of Johnson, pick 2 to start out of these 3:

Diontae Johnson - @BUF
Allan Lazard - NYG
Josh Reynolds (let's assume St. Brown is inactive as well; Chark is already out) - @NE

I think Lazard is the safest choice. I don't think the Pats game will be a shootout but I'd still probably go Reynolds.

[dyee4613]

Not sure how you've drawn this conclusion. He's been amazing for years with a garbage QB. Sure it's been a rocky start this year, but it's because this team has it's head up it's ass rather than anything to do with him.

What exactly has Pickens done that's better? 11 receptions on 20 targets isn't very good. Yeah he's hit some home run balls that have propped him up and caught people's attention because of the highlight reel but that's about it. Johnson 23 receptions on 37 targets still seems far superior to me.

The problem is the offense does not move this ball. Najee Harris hasn't been getting jack sh*t either this year. Is Harris also "not that dude"??


Aside from the fact Johnson's TDs are down he looks fine. No one is getting into the end zone for Pitt. Pickens included. And Johnson is far more likely than Pickens to find it.

Diontae Johnson gets a ton of targets. He's simply not good with them. I'll use 2021 as an example.

1) Johnson has garbage hands. His career catch rate is 62.7% career. This is really bad for how he is used. His average depth per catch is 8.5 yards. This is comparable to the 70%+ group. Godwin, Renfroe, Beasley, Waddle are all around 6-7 in average depth which is why they are at 70% catch %. Inversely, Johnson is comparable to McLaurin and DK at the back but they're both in the 12%+ for average depth. This means Johnson gets a lot of easier catch opportunities and just doesn't catch them.

https://cdn.rotoballer.com/2022/02/e...bfc3bde288.png

If your memory of Diontae Johnson’s season involves lots of really short tosses on shallow drags bouncing off his hands or chest, you aren’t imagining things. Johnson dropped a whopping 14 passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage, per Sports Info Solutions. He dropped 16 overall to lead the league in this unofficial stat.

Note - He led in 2020, too.

2) Johnson is not particularly effective with those catches.

Diontae Johnson was targeted 169 times in 2021, only Cooper Kupp was targeted more. Yet, while he ranked 2nd in targets, he ranked 10th in yards and tied for 16th in touchdowns. His catch rate of 63.3% was not impressive, ranking 138th out of all qualified players, and 30th out of the 49 wide receivers that caught at least 50 passes last season.

Making that catch rate number worse is his yards per reception, 10.9, which ranked 38th out of those same 49 receivers. That led to a 43rd place finish out of those 49 receivers in yards per target. Diontae Johnson’s efficiency as a receiver was not Pro Bowl level, he caught fewer of his targets for fewer yards than most of his peers. It’s pretty easy to argue the only special thing about his season was how much Ben Roethlisberger threw him the ball.

So...yeah, why is he good?

Diontae may or may not be that dude, but his role is different anyway. Diontae is a possession receiver (who drops the ball too much, LOL). Claypool is supposed to be the downfield target, and he's more directly who Pickens is competing for targets with, but Claypool is even less "that dude" than Diontae, and Pickett is more likely to look downfield than Trubisky, so all signs are pointing up for Pickens, but regardless, it's tough to trust a rookie with a rookie QB. Anyway, thanks. I have some thinking to do about this one.

Steelers run 3 WR sets at 75% which is very high in the NFL. This would directly cannibalize Diontae's targets.

[Bigbuster1]

Standard scoring

Not sure who to start

Hunt or Herbert. Looks like Montgomery is playing

[tripod29]

Standard scoring

Not sure who to start

Hunt or Herbert. Looks like Montgomery is playing

Hunt if Mont. plays. Chargers run D is trash.

[Murph0408]

Amon'ra at 1pm and he's highly questionable. If he's out who's my WR2?

Pickens
London

love both these dudes going forward but hate to have to count on them so early. I'm leaning London because he has the targets in the bank, especially with Pitts out.

edit/nvm Amon's playing

[SoutheastBeast1]

While on the subject of Johnson, pick 2 to start out of these 3:

Diontae Johnson - @BUF
Allan Lazard - NYG
Josh Reynolds (let's assume St. Brown is inactive as well; Chark is already out) - @NE

Also if Montgomery sits, which 2 do you start out of these 3?

Herbert
CEH
Singletary

St. Brown and Montgomery both being active ended up making my choices for me.

Went with Lazard and Johnson at WR, and CEH and Singletary at RB. So far Lazard did well enough thanks to the TD grab. F*cking Rodgers getting passes deflected that were meant for him 4th and goal at the end of the game like a ph aggot. Could have had a 2 TD day from Lazard. Stop throwing side armed you retard.

[Jayarbie]

Diontae Johnson gets a ton of targets. He's simply not good with them. I'll use 2021 as an example.

1) Johnson has garbage hands. His career catch rate is 62.7% career. This is really bad for how he is used. His average depth per catch is 8.5 yards. This is comparable to the 70%+ group. Godwin, Renfroe, Beasley, Waddle are all around 6-7 in average depth which is why they are at 70% catch %. Inversely, Johnson is comparable to McLaurin and DK at the back but they're both in the 12%+ for average depth. This means Johnson gets a lot of easier catch opportunities and just doesn't catch them.

https://cdn.rotoballer.com/2022/02/e...bfc3bde288.png



Note - He led in 2020, too.

2) Johnson is not particularly effective with those catches.


So...yeah, why is he good?



Steelers run 3 WR sets at 75% which is very high in the NFL. This would directly cannibalize Diontae's targets.

I watch pretty much every second of every Steelers game. Johnson is infuriating because he does everything great except catch easy balls. He runs great routes, he gets open, he makes acrobatic toe-drag catches on the boundary, but if you throw him a 5 yard hook where he's wide open, it'll go right through his hands for an interception. It happens like once or twice a game, and it's a killer. If he could only fukking catch the ones that hit him right in the hands, he'd be a perennial all-pro.

[WHChampion]

Matt Rhule fired and Baker with an ankle sprain. DJM might not be a total bust after all.

[SoutheastBeast1]

Not gonna lie, getting tougher each week not to bench Diontae Johnson. I already had to bench DJ Moore in this god damn league. Giving Johnson every chance to avoid benching both of the WR I drafted to start. Luckily I keep winning each week but right now my team feels like I'm desperately trying to hit all the right buttons to stay afloat. Aside from Cook and Hurts, not one person on my team is an automatic start any more fml.

Reynolds is on a bye next week so Johnson will probably get another week to redeem himself, granted it will be against TB. Better show up or might find himself next to DJ.

[sfgiants13]

Despite Breece getting 2 TDs voltured I have a small chance. CEH needs 28 which considering his usage isn’t likely. 2 injuries this week and Swift/Thomas out and I still had a chance. My team needs to get healthy badly.