**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Carbonfibre]

lmaooooooo

market isn't going to all time high this year or next year.


you will be waiting for long time before you see SP at 4800.


never get fomo thinking ship has sailed.

always zoom out.

inflation still has far to go.




plus balance sheet need to drop down to 6T.

[2020Wellness]

Bruh, are y'all really out here trying to time the market with your 401Ks and stuff? I (maybe) understand doing that with your trading account, but I assume most on the misc are in their 30s or early 40s at the latest? You have so much time to ride out market cycles that it's more costly doing this buying/selling than just staying invested and not touching your 401K beyond rebalancing asset allocations.

Amen.

Going to cash in long term investments is a statistically losing strategy.

I DCA weekly with $1000.00 + 20% of total income and have no stress from the markets.

[Destor]

Yeah I see a rally but not sure how far it will go, feels like there will be a lot of selling pressure from people who want to bail out of certain things as prices move up

But it wouldn't be unusual historically to see the S&P at or near the high as interest rates move up, that has been the pattern in the past. Rates are going up because the economy is too strong, and you'd think that would be reflected in the valuations -- Q3 and Q4 here should theoretically be peak earnings before we start actually seeing significant impacts from the rate hikes. We can argue the market moves faster and is smarter these days and it will be different, but I'm more inclined to think things are never actually different and it'll be apparent when it's all said and done.

[RobParks2M]

Amen.

Going to cash in long term investments is a statistically losing strategy.

I DCA weekly with $1000.00 + 20% of total income and have no stress from the markets.

If your account has enough value to be hyped about it is worth protecting. Still adding to equity positions, but I'm not scared to have cash sitting in my account. I'd much rather have cash than buy bonds right now and guarantee I lose money every couple months as fed continues hiking borrow rates.


@carbon look at Starbucks balance sheet and cash flow. Looks pretty rough on an annual basis no?

[ghostfacedup]

yeah i stopped contributing to my 401K this year. gonna wait until March/April of next year to resume.

[2020Wellness]

If your account has enough value to be hyped about it is worth protecting. Still adding to equity positions, but I'm not scared to have cash sitting in my account. I'd much rather have cash than buy bonds right now and guarantee I lose money every couple months as fed continues hiking borrow rates.

@carbon look at Starbucks balance sheet and cash flow. Looks pretty rough on an annual basis no?

I definitely agree with you on keeping cash on the side. My personal allocations are 2/3 in long term investments and 1/3 cash on the side. So, actually a fair amount on the side. Right now I'm thinking about where to keep that cash. I mentioned this earlier, but it looks like M1 finance is coming out with a 4.5% savings account, which is looking attractive.

[Carbonfibre]

@carbon look at Starbucks balance sheet and cash flow. Looks pretty rough on an annual basis no?

will take look at tonight.









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job reports way too strong again

market didn't like that

time to tank this down to 4000 SP again lmao

[NestBrah]

will take look at tonight.









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job reports way too strong again

market didn't like that

time to tank this down to 4000 SP again lmao

Still reckon 4200-4300 by Xmas?

[Destor]

Still reckon 4200-4300 by Xmas?

One thing we can say for sure is that it is going up or down

[Carbonfibre]

Still reckon 4200-4300 by Xmas?

There is two big events left for this year.

CPI Dec 13th
FOMC Dec 14th.

Those two events are pricing in 160 point move in SP 500.

So depending on where spot price is going into said events add +/- 160.

Assuming today 4050 holds.....that gives you 4210 or 3900ish.


Atm buyers still in control as long they can keep SP 4000 holding.


If you saw that crayon chart above it was going to go either way reject 200DMA or keep pumping...lets see how today plays out.

[NestBrah]

There is two big events left for this year.

CPI Dec 13th
FOMC Dec 14th.

Those two events are pricing in 160 point move in SP 500.

So depending on where spot price is going into said events add +/- 160.

Assuming today 4050 holds.....that gives you 4210 or 3900ish.


Atm buyers still in control as long they can keep SP 4000 holding.


If you saw that crayon chart above it was going to go either way reject 200DMA or keep pumping...lets see how today plays out.

Yes looks like this could give Powell the incentive to do 0.75 points later this month.

Would move S&P 500 straight down to 3700-ish, I assume.

[Carbonfibre]

Yes looks like this could give Powell the incentive to do 0.75 points later this month.

Would move S&P 500 straight down to 3700-ish, I assume.

No chance imo.

We would drill hard if Jpow flipped and did 75bps.

These job numbers didn't do much to fund rate.

70+ percent still 50bps for Dec fomc.

[Destor]

Yeah they don't need to do 0.75 next meeting, they can do 0.50 and then hammer away with 0.25s again and again and again as they wait to see lagged impacts of hiking so far

I think rates will end up being higher for much longer than most people figure, the economy currently appears capable of supporting it

[NestBrah]

Yeah they don't need to do 0.75 next meeting, they can do 0.50 and then hammer away with 0.25s again and again and again as they wait to see lagged impacts of hiking so far

I think rates will end up being higher for much longer than most people figure, the economy currently appears capable of supporting it

Will be good for the USD I guess, ECB/BoE etc won't be able to keep up without killing their own economies

[_zman]

Finally got another opportunity with private equity. So happy to invest money outside of this market.

[Carbonfibre]

yeahhhhh

every dildo indicator / chart pattern isn't going to stop them from buying every dip.

they just bought the whole jobs report drop back.



now that SP has cleared 200DMA.

they will use that as support and buy on any test of it.

hence why it reclaimed 4050 today and gonna close strong.



unless CPI in two weeks is worst ever this is going up.



personally would not be chasing. this is way too high.

[NestBrah]

yeahhhhh

every dildo indicator / chart pattern isn't going to stop them from buying every dip.

they just bought the whole jobs report drop back.



now that SP has cleared 200DMA.

they will use that as support and buy on any test of it.

hence why it reclaimed 4050 today and gonna close strong.



unless CPI in two weeks is worst ever this is going up.



personally would not be chasing. this is way too high.

So your advice is to stay cash and wait for a big dip Q1 of next year before re-entering?

[lntense]

No chance imo.

We would drill hard if Jpow flipped and did 75bps.

These job numbers didn't do much to fund rate.

70+ percent still 50bps for Dec fomc.

This.


Powell won’t do 75 in dec. It’s likely 50 then another 50 in feb.


The jobs data is also questionable it’s diverging from other indicators. Last time was I think when Obama was going for his second term.

And household surveys indicates the numbers today weren’t accurate.



Who knows honestly. I just know we rallying

[Carbonfibre]

So your advice is to stay cash and wait for a big dip Q1 of next year before re-entering?

Everything says that market is over due for sell off even the smallest sell off down to 3900-3950 but atm it just won't.

With CPI/Fomc coming up its 100 percent toss up what happens.

Like what if CPI is really good and market goes up 150-200 points and SP is 4200-4300....JPow could go full nuclear next day at FOMC and we get last fomc where he told market to phuck off and market dumped 150 points.

Since August the market is doing insane moves when it comes to CPI / FOMC or any time Jpow holds press conference.

I think I repeated this for last 3 plus months, market has turned these 2 events into superbowl and casino. You just cannot as trader ignore these events. (unless you trading 1 year and over time frame)



Like I said earlier, have no skin in the game (via options) too much of tax hit to play, its end of year, so waiting for next year. Doing nothing but watching.

There is always money to be made and lost in market. It will be there tmmrw next week, next month, years etc. (I agree with that poster above not sure why anyone would be playing with 401K like that in/out...legit impossible to time bottom and tops)


Just look how big these moves off these events have become.

[RobParks2M]

I’m bought sbux puts for April. Time will tell how fukt I get.

IV 30 seemed solid for a longer term hedge.

[Bavaria]

I think rates will end up being higher for much longer than most people figure, the economy currently appears capable of supporting it

I subscribe to this thesis as well. Bought into Wheaton Precious Metals a few months ago, been bag holding so far. Ivanhoe mines as well. If history repeats itself, gold should do well in a stable rate + inflationary environment.

Haven't sold a single share of my O&G stonks. Been starting new positions + adding on down drafts.

[RobParks2M]

I subscribe to this thesis as well. Bought into Wheaton Precious Metals a few months ago, been bag holding so far. Ivanhoe mines as well. If history repeats itself, gold should do well in a stable rate + inflationary environment.

Haven't sold a single share of my O&G stonks. Been starting new positions + adding on down drafts.

I'm holding oil positions as well wondering how it'll look come summer. OPEC won't raise production and I think many OPEC countries are keeping oil investments at a minimum. Gold only does well when interest rates are low tbh I don't think gold holds value as well when paper earns 4-5% interest.

I think Powell is gonna drop the fkn hammer on markets and go with one last 0.75 hike to end the year. He's laser focused on keeping wages from rising to the moon and this is the only way to avoid the mistakes of the early 80s and giving up too soon. Gotta just crush inflation and when you think its done stomp on it just one more time. I was optimistic that inflation was going to be dropping off rapidly thanks to cooling demand for homes and oil stabilizing, but wages could force them to continue smaller hikes through the first 3-6 months of the year instead of hiking for potentially the last time in December. Either way I think I'll be buying 1 of 3 tranches of bonds after the December hike something like the 2 year T-bond or perhaps 5 year. In the next 6 months I think everyone, businesses included, are going to realize collecting 5% gain on interest is a better return than anything else in the market. Why buy a dividend company if they offer less than 5%?

[Venom08]

SPY resistance TL is still in effect. Next we have to close below $391 to really get the sell off going. I have puts and am targeting either a double bottom at $350 or $305 into Q1

[lntense]

I'm holding oil positions as well wondering how it'll look come summer. OPEC won't raise production and I think many OPEC countries are keeping oil investments at a minimum. Gold only does well when interest rates are low tbh I don't think gold holds value as well when paper earns 4-5% interest.

I think Powell is gonna drop the fkn hammer on markets and go with one last 0.75 hike to end the year. He's laser focused on keeping wages from rising to the moon and this is the only way to avoid the mistakes of the early 80s and giving up too soon. Gotta just crush inflation and when you think its done stomp on it just one more time. I was optimistic that inflation was going to be dropping off rapidly thanks to cooling demand for homes and oil stabilizing, but wages could force them to continue smaller hikes through the first 3-6 months of the year instead of hiking for potentially the last time in December. Either way I think I'll be buying 1 of 3 tranches of bonds after the December hike something like the 2 year T-bond or perhaps 5 year. In the next 6 months I think everyone, businesses included, are going to realize collecting 5% gain on interest is a better return than anything else in the market. Why buy a dividend company if they offer less than 5%?

Did you watch his last speech? He came off very soft landing ish. Polar opposite of Jackson hole Powell.

I think we get 50 this time based on where the target rate is at. Waiting on cpi for if we get more rallying or not.

Until then not holding much overnight.

[lntense]

In for the bounce tomorrow. Would have held tesla puts until tomorrow but I’m thinking things may gap up overnight.

[lntense]

SPY resistance TL is still in effect. Next we have to close below $391 to really get the sell off going. I have puts and am targeting either a double bottom at $350 or $305 into Q1

How far out is the exp? Dec could be a rough ride for you if cpi is even slightly cooler.

We’re likely going to rally into Jan then death. It’s all in Powells hands. Most things at support/resistance.


Institutions don’t want to be sitting on this much cash going into the end of the year imo. Need to fluff some numbers

[RobParks2M]

Did you watch his last speech? He came off very soft landing ish. Polar opposite of Jackson hole Powell.

I think we get 50 this time based on where the target rate is at. Waiting on cpi for if we get more rallying or not.

Until then not holding much overnight.

I did not. Just hoping he wipes out the longs. I think over 400 he’s going to agree. He just doesn’t want new lows too soon I imagine.

[lntense]

well I couldn't have been more wrong for today. Guess chop into cpi it is.




At least we can be at a level for a good move up now after this selling once we hopefully get a expected or better cpi number.

[dankydank]

Got bunch of BAC puts in November deep otm. Now itm. Don’t know to hold or sell. Still got 3 weeks left on it. Daily RSI back to 30 again. If it gets back to 29 I’m up 700%

[RobParks2M]

well I couldn't have been more wrong for today. Guess chop into cpi it is.




At least we can be at a level for a good move up now after this selling once we hopefully get a expected or better cpi number.

What do you consider “good” lmao.