**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[camaleom]

market going retard LOL

[hardestgainer]

today broke the all time record for amount of calls bought.

Lol oh lawd, I’ll go ahead and grab a few puts

[camaleom]

amz earning yikes...

the cash cow aws is slowing down

[Venom08]

AMZN and AAPL down 4% post reports. Ugh. I wanted $120 on AMZN to get out of my calls.

[Carbonfibre]

Conference call can still save them but.........


When you see this today.

You have to quickly realize whole lot of chase went on.

They ain't going to pay everyone for chasing....


In morning couldn't even keep up people were tripping over themselves buying shiit above ask.


arkk / upst / tesla


there was phucking 410K volume on Tesla $200 calls expiring tmmrw.

[MarioMiami305]

LOL @ these stupid assed investors

Our economy cannot sustain a 5% fed funds rate.

Once they lower this inflation will go to new highs.

[NestBrah]

Conference call can still save them but.........


When you see this today.

You have to quickly realize whole lot of chase went on.

They ain't going to pay everyone for chasing....


In morning couldn't even keep up people were tripping over themselves buying shiit above ask.


arkk / upst / tesla


there was phucking 410K volume on Tesla $200 calls expiring tmmrw.

After hours not so bad. Google and Amazon still way up for the day despite terrible earnings. Don't think buyers will fall away too quickly. The bull run could continue.

[Carbonfibre]

Conference call Tim Cook said China is back baby..

Said iPhone sales for this current quarter will pick up again.

That brought apple from red to green.

[Destor]

Back to red tho? I stopped listening to Apple’s call after 30mins

It’s clear why the market refuses to believe the Fed brahs. Listening to the reactions to these big tech misses, it’s all 2nd half 2nd half 2nd half. They very desperately want to believe things will be getting better in the second half.

How can that happen? We’ve barely started getting the first whiffs or impacts from the hikes to date. Even if the cut now, which they won’t, it would be a two quarter lag or more again.

If it’s China reopening, that would be inflationary.

[Carbonfibre]

Back to red tho? I stopped listening to Apple’s call after 30mins

It’s clear why the market refuses to believe the Fed brahs. Listening to the reactions to these big tech misses, it’s all 2nd half 2nd half 2nd half. They very desperately want to believe things will be getting better in the second half.

How can that happen? We’ve barely started getting the first whiffs or impacts from the hikes to date. Even if the cut now, which they won’t, it would be a two quarter lag or more again.

If it’s China reopening, that would be inflationary.

They are all projecting no growth this year (flat) / if this was any other time they would all be down double digits.

Last year we saw what they did with Meta and Netflix / it was massacre.

This time Meta doing buyback is only thing that anyone seems to care about.

As for Apple...they don't give guidance ever, so when Cook says its okay iPhone sales are going to take off / algorithms fired off and it got apple close to flat.


Why market is buying this up since yesterday fed green light, I dunno.

Only thing that can explain it is those two photos above.

Unreal call chasing we have never seen before.

Which very well could be investors afraid of missing the bottom.

[BuckNakedinBama]

I got tan TF over with my SQQQ. Added some this afternoon. Lol@me if the rally continues. Got 80k in it now, gonna ride. If I lose it all, oh well.

[imbeingcereal]

They are all projecting no growth this year (flat) / if this was any other time they would all be down double digits.

Last year we saw what they did with Meta and Netflix / it was massacre.

This time Meta doing buyback is only thing that anyone seems to care about.

As for Apple...they don't give guidance ever, so when Cook says its okay iPhone sales are going to take off / algorithms fired off and it got apple close to flat.


Why market is buying this up since yesterday fed green light, I dunno.

Only thing that can explain it is those two photos above.

Unreal call chasing we have never seen before.

Which very well could be investors afraid of missing the bottom.

I'm a $QCOM investor and they too are insisting things will be good by H2 2023. Everyone so far is basically saying H1 2023 will be a "challenging macro environment" but that they'll "expect to emerge better than ever in H2 2023". I guess what I'm trying to figure out is what are some indicators that this recovery won't happen or how credible are Management with these projections? I feel like we're only now starting to feel the impacts of rate hikes and people cutting back spending due to inflation/economic uncertainty.

To me, this whole market is so risky right now. We're up almost 10% in 1 month, which is more than a typical yearly gain on the S&P 500 and it seems like everything hinges on this idea that the Fed isn't credible and will have to pivot this year. I'm just not convinced this will happen unless energy prices actually stay down. Energy is in a potentially short-term lull, but with China re-opening and summer travel season coming up, I don't know if that's a safe bet and the increase in energy prices will mess up CPI numbers again. This is also what J-Pow hinted at, but the market seems to be ignoring it for now...

[Lefticle]

I'm a $QCOM investor and they too are insisting things will be good by H2 2023. Everyone so far is basically saying H1 2023 will be a "challenging macro environment" but that they'll "expect to emerge better than ever in H2 2023". I guess what I'm trying to figure out is what are some indicators that this recovery won't happen or how credible are Management with these projections? I feel like we're only now starting to feel the impacts of rate hikes and people cutting back spending due to inflation/economic uncertainty.

To me, this whole market is so risky right now. We're up almost 10% in 1 month, which is more than a typical yearly gain on the S&P 500 and it seems like everything hinges on this idea that the Fed isn't credible and will have to pivot this year. I'm just not convinced this will happen unless energy prices actually stay down. Energy is in a potentially short-term lull, but with China re-opening and summer travel season coming up, I don't know if that's a safe bet and the increase in energy prices will mess up CPI numbers again. This is also what J-Pow hinted at, but the market seems to be ignoring it for now...

This is exactly why I trimmed some of my positions today. Currently sitting on more cash now than in the past 18 months.

[RobParks2M]

Its very important that people understand that squeeze had huge part to do with this move.

Going up over joy that UPST is back is like believing in unicorns.


I will post YTD so far and when you see it whats leading is well 2021 again.



Jerome shiit the bed yesterday like badly.

People need to be realistic or they going to be bag holding again.

To the surprise of apparently no one. I really thought the writing was on the wall and clear as fuking day what needed to happen. BUT just like everyone with half a brain saying start hiking rates inflation is out of control and fed kept murmuring something something transitory Powell decided to keep doing dumb shyt and here we are. The sad part is just one more 50 bp hike really could have saved a lot of headaches for the rest of the year. 50 meant that they could threaten another 50 or do 25 next meeting to get to their target or they could even hold rates for a meeting or 2. Switching to 25 is essentially the fed deciding they’ve done enough and one more 25 bp hike before holding.

[Carbonfibre]

I'm a $QCOM investor and they too are insisting things will be good by H2 2023. Everyone so far is basically saying H1 2023 will be a "challenging macro environment" but that they'll "expect to emerge better than ever in H2 2023". I guess what I'm trying to figure out is what are some indicators that this recovery won't happen or how credible are Management with these projections? I feel like we're only now starting to feel the impacts of rate hikes and people cutting back spending due to inflation/economic uncertainty.

To me, this whole market is so risky right now. We're up almost 10% in 1 month, which is more than a typical yearly gain on the S&P 500 and it seems like everything hinges on this idea that the Fed isn't credible and will have to pivot this year. I'm just not convinced this will happen unless energy prices actually stay down. Energy is in a potentially short-term lull, but with China re-opening and summer travel season coming up, I don't know if that's a safe bet and the increase in energy prices will mess up CPI numbers again. This is also what J-Pow hinted at, but the market seems to be ignoring it for now...

Any company whatever they say now / can't predict what environment will look like q3/q4.

So they get help from analyst that start revising down and by magic they never miss.

Here is amazon going forward.

Notice something

Single digit growth till end of Q3 and than suddenly like magic back to double digit growth.





Right now is peak fomo, I have never seen something like this not even during GME meme era.

Everyone is on the same camp that its over.

Buy anything / QT has ended.

[2020Wellness]

Dayum at that payroll report! 517,000 rise versus 187,000 expected. If that doesn't tell people the fed will keep raising rates, I don't know what will.

[camaleom]

Dayum at that payroll report! 517,000 rise versus 187,000 expected. If that doesn't tell people the fed will keep raising rates, I don't know what will.

alll the companies that couldn't find people 6-12months ago are having a ball picking up the recent people that has been layoff

I have been saying that for awhile but the headlines make people forget where we were just a few months ago.

[Carbonfibre]

that miss is so crazy it doesn't even make sense


they were expecting 190K



who is doing these reports Jerome's dog pushing buttons

[camaleom]

that miss is so crazy it doesn't even make sense


they were expecting 190K



who is doing these reports Jerome's dog pushing buttons

the great part is that if you drive around town ALL the stores have "hiring" signs (at least here in NC)

[2020Wellness]

the great part is that if you drive around town ALL the stores have "hiring" signs (at least here in NC)

Same here in MN. They'll say, we're hiring, then list out all the different positions that are open. Basically every position the store needs, lol.

[reinsdorfsucks]

I think that payroll number is a manipulation of seasonal adjustments.

[Destor]

I think that payroll number is a manipulation of seasonal adjustments.

All of that should be considered in forecasts

The Fed is overly optimistic, and the market isn’t believing even the optimistic projections

[NestBrah]

Thoughts on holding META?

I'm nearing breakeven after being negative all year. Wondering whether to sell into this rally, considering the economic uncertainty right now.

[thatsnarf]

Thoughts on holding META?

I'm nearing breakeven after being negative all year. Wondering whether to sell into this rally, considering the economic uncertainty right now.

i'd get rid of the bag. no question about it. you can always scale back in later. fuk that.

[Carbonfibre]

if you want to get rid of something just sell CC's.

might as well take advantage of peak crazy fomo. META IV should be high atm.





apple is right now holding whole market up.



apple > market

[phaginator]

Thoughts on holding META?

I'm nearing breakeven after being negative all year. Wondering whether to sell into this rally, considering the economic uncertainty right now.

Put a trailing stop on it.

[Abzu]

Terminal fed funds rate will be 5.25-5.50 to 5.50-5.75, the fed will then pause, rate cuts follow and continue into 2024.

I still haven't seen anyone post the catalyst to get this market moving down.

I don't think most of you guys are going to make it this year but that's ok.

So... are we still expecting the Fed to pause in May or the terminal rate to be 4.75-5.00?



I'm always the first one to get it my misca, that's how you lead by example.



Lol.

[reinsdorfsucks]

So... are we still expecting the Fed to pause in May or the terminal rate to be 4.75-5.00?



I'm always the first one to get it my misca, that's how you lead by example.



Lol.

Yes the soft landing has been a success and the markets are loving it!

[RobParks2M]

that miss is so crazy it doesn't even make sense


they were expecting 190K



who is doing these reports Jerome's dog pushing buttons

Incompetence.

[camaleom]

when market conditions change I want to see those companies that layoff people... if 6 months ago they were paying premium for talent then in another year they will be paying double of that...