**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Carbonfibre]

see these odds

next day after Fed bond market again saying nope, you will be cutting in July and fast.

market throwing fit

stock market cannot function without low interest rate

there is no way around it.

inflation not a problem what stock market is saying give us fed *******.

if regular middle class suffers we don't care

[Destor]

Hope springs eternal, it’s far more common for things to be overvalued than find them undervalued, etc etc

[camaleom]

NVDA baby /enough said

my long term account is looking pretty

[Carbonfibre]

balance sheet again

to infinity and beyond.

when they are forced to sell this rise in tech

yikesssssss

[Schnitzl]

Bit wary of these sudden moves, guess we'll have to wait until EOY to shake the fog off and start dripping into stonks again.

[RobParks2M]

I just can’t believe how low bonds are sitting right now… why tf are fed rates going up and we are still 50-75 points from previous rates…

[TugOfPeace]

Don't feel like trading this market anymore. It was a casino before, but now it's like a fake casino where people are trading with monopoly money. Will just sell 30-45 DTE calls on a few positions and fugettabouteet.

[mulletwarrior]

TODAY: SEC warns of significant risk of total loss to crypto bros: https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-al...investor-alert

Also TODAY: BTC up $1,200

[Carbonfibre]

TODAY: SEC warns of significant risk of total loss to crypto bros: https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-al...investor-alert

Also TODAY: BTC up $1,200

This probably goes back to whales owning big portion of BTC.

Bad news = good news type of scenario.

Plus Algorithms are running markets rampant in shorter duration more than ever.

Today I had laptop open was watching SP 500 futures.

At 3PM Yellen was in front of house talking again on some stupid shiit.

Opening statement she read different prepared statement to yesterday where market went on ****ter to downside today they made her read different statement "we have the tools to prevent contagion...we can use them again"

Second that was read by computers.


SPY went from $390 to $395 in under 1 minute.


No retail trader on planet earth can catch that.

When sp futures sell or buy.

This moves whole market so you can see same bump on every single stock at 3PM.

Thats how it goes these days market heavy rigged.








Long story short....




Only time retail had chance against big boys was 2021 when Fed was pumping anything under the sun.

Liquidity was as far eye can see.

Whales didn't care that everyone was winning since Fed was paying the whole ride up 2021.

Plus they knew that they were gonna get paid on way down.

Biggest issue is that retail doesn't know when to exist names that will never turn profit.



Here we are 2023.

Market screaming start cutting rates.

[2020Wellness]

Don't feel like trading this market anymore. It was a casino before, but now it's like a fake casino where people are trading with monopoly money. Will just sell 30-45 DTE calls on a few positions and fugettabouteet.

No need to trade. You should be in the business of accumulation. Just buy, always.

[TugOfPeace]

No need to trade. You should be in the business of accumulation. Just buy, always.

I have some pretty heavy bags. Not bags that I want to be in the business of accumulating more of lol. But I get what you're saying.

[RobParks2M]

It's easy to write off someone just saying they know nothing but, objectively, she knows exactly what is going on. Either because she is being nudged towards a situation or it is the best out of bad choices in the long run. Of course there are people who give 0 fuchs about anyone but I doubt most go to sleep at night thinking "how can I fuk up the world economy tomorrow"

This didn’t even age well 48 hours later. Thots?

[Schnitzl]

This didn’t even age well 48 hours later. Thots?

Thots haven't changed. I still think she knows every move she makes. Maybe you think you're smarter than her but I sure as hell don't. You don't get to have an academic career like this unless you're very smart. Especially economics where you have to have a great understanding of micro, macro, history, maths and pattern recognition.

Yellen attended Brown University, deepening her interest in economics and graduating with a B.A. in 1967. She then continued her studies at Yale University, earning her Ph.D. in 1971, the only woman among 24 Ph.D. graduates in Economics. Yellen taught economics as an Assistant Professor at Harvard University for five years, where she was well-regarded but not offered tenure. During her time at Yale and Harvard, Yellen began exploring more deeply how American companies should and could pay workers fairly. She also taught in LSE & Berkeley.

[bsmit107]

Thinking of dropping $2k in FRC and assuming I lost it but hoping I'll be able to buy used corvette in 2-3 years. lulz

[mulletwarrior]

I just can’t believe how low bonds are sitting right now… why tf are fed rates going up and we are still 50-75 points from previous rates…

Seems like this lends support to the “bank rescue programs are disguised QE”

QE is done to reduce long term rate without further lowering the fed rate.

[2020Wellness]

Thinking of dropping $2k in FRC and assuming I lost it but hoping I'll be able to buy used corvette in 2-3 years. lulz

The upside seems huge. Could be a 10-15x play.

[semenreleaser]

The upside seems huge. Could be a 10-15x play.

I was day trading FRC earlier this week and made some nice gains, but was terrified holding for even like 10-15 minutes, lol.

[semenreleaser]

Thinking of dropping $2k in FRC and assuming I lost it but hoping I'll be able to buy used corvette in 2-3 years. lulz

Just don't put your life savings in like this guy!

[RobParks2M]

Thots haven't changed. I still think she knows every move she makes. Maybe you think you're smarter than her but I sure as hell don't. You don't get to have an academic career like this unless you're very smart. Especially economics where you have to have a great understanding of micro, macro, history, maths and pattern recognition.

Yellen attended Brown University, deepening her interest in economics and graduating with a B.A. in 1967. She then continued her studies at Yale University, earning her Ph.D. in 1971, the only woman among 24 Ph.D. graduates in Economics. Yellen taught economics as an Assistant Professor at Harvard University for five years, where she was well-regarded but not offered tenure. During her time at Yale and Harvard, Yellen began exploring more deeply how American companies should and could pay workers fairly. She also taught in LSE & Berkeley.

I’m not saying she is stupid. Just not in the loop apparently. She’s been getting walked over in terms of decision making.

[Carbonfibre]

there are other cracks appearing in euro banks.

CS isn't the only bank.

they are now talking about Deutsche Bank

so situation is extremely tense under the hood.

market is acting like retard.

somehow keeping it together.

default swaps are rising on all banks.

if things get worse by next week all central banks could get together and say we will guarantee every deposit again and up it goes on pure stupid.

[RobParks2M]

there are other cracks appearing in euro banks.

CS isn't the only bank.

they are now talking about Deutsche Bank

so situation is extremely tense under the hood.

market is acting like retard.

somehow keeping it together.

default swaps are rising on all banks.

if things get worse by next week all central banks could get together and say we will guarantee every deposit again and up it goes on pure stupid.

Bonds are looking ugly AF. Definitely appears they are getting pushed down likely in an effort to help banks which is highly irritating. Bonds, in theory, should still have rising interest rates. It makes no sense I’m getting better interest rate from my savings account than in bonds…

[_zman]

Thots haven't changed. I still think she knows every move she makes. Maybe you think you're smarter than her but I sure as hell don't. You don't get to have an academic career like this unless you're very smart. Especially economics where you have to have a great understanding of micro, macro, history, maths and pattern recognition.

Yellen attended Brown University, deepening her interest in economics and graduating with a B.A. in 1967. She then continued her studies at Yale University, earning her Ph.D. in 1971, the only woman among 24 Ph.D. graduates in Economics. Yellen taught economics as an Assistant Professor at Harvard University for five years, where she was well-regarded but not offered tenure. During her time at Yale and Harvard, Yellen began exploring more deeply how American companies should and could pay workers fairly. She also taught in LSE & Berkeley.

You can have all the credentials in the world in Economics, but smarty pants or not, economics, in my experience is highly opinion based still and a lot of it is theory. Not that long ago they thought globalization was the answer. And didn't even consider the repercussions, just their personal balance sheet. Not to mention these elites having no real world experience or can relate to the common person to better our lives, not their bank account. They're literally figuring this out as they go and do not have a lot of experience since it's only been in place 109 years.

They can say all the fancy terms they want and try to explain complex manipulations they partake in, but the fact they couldn't see this inflation train coming or stop it once it started tells a lot.

[mulletwarrior]

Thots haven't changed. I still think she knows every move she makes. Maybe you think you're smarter than her but I sure as hell don't. You don't get to have an academic career like this unless you're very smart. Especially economics where you have to have a great understanding of micro, macro, history, maths and pattern recognition.

Yellen attended Brown University, deepening her interest in economics and graduating with a B.A. in 1967. She then continued her studies at Yale University, earning her Ph.D. in 1971, the only woman among 24 Ph.D. graduates in Economics. Yellen taught economics as an Assistant Professor at Harvard University for five years, where she was well-regarded but not offered tenure. During her time at Yale and Harvard, Yellen began exploring more deeply how American companies should and could pay workers fairly. She also taught in LSE & Berkeley.

The things folks forget when talking about how smart/accomplished someone is: when you hit 70 your brain really starts deteriorating. Jay Powell is in the same boat. Plus, they don't care as much because they not going to be around much longer.

Listen to Biden or Trump now, and listen to them talking 30 yrs ago. Its pretty shocking.

Why we have these "aging dotards" running our country and financials system is beyond me.

Thinking of dropping $2k in FRC and assuming I lost it but hoping I'll be able to buy used corvette in 2-3 years. lulz

Ha I put up like $3k last year into a russian ETF. Actually had some siiiiick gainz (like 1,000% +). Then they decided to shut down the ETF and are in the process of liquidating because it is "the right thing to do". I'm expecting to recover pennies on the dollar.

there are other cracks appearing in euro banks.

CS isn't the only bank.

they are now talking about Deutsche Bank

so situation is extremely tense under the hood.

market is acting like retard.

somehow keeping it together.

default swaps are rising on all banks.

if things get worse by next week all central banks could get together and say we will guarantee every deposit again and up it goes on pure stupid.

Chit is mad. And if they guaranty everything, risk is on 100x and BTC will go to $100k. De-risking is the new form of QE.

[Carbonfibre]

Bonds are looking ugly AF. Definitely appears they are getting pushed down likely in an effort to help banks which is highly irritating. Bonds, in theory, should still have rising interest rates. It makes no sense I’m getting better interest rate from my savings account than in bonds…

Yeah at this rate SIBV management be like.

We could have survived where bonds are at atm LMAO.



Basically bond market is saying recession imminent.

Stock market especially tech Nasdaq be like buy NVDA at $270. I dare you its not low enough.


Everyone hiding in tech stocks.

Good luck with that..

Chit is mad. And if they guaranty everything, risk is on 100x and BTC will go to $100k. De-risking is the new form of QE.

There is stress in banks clearly.

Just seems market is waiting on bailout for everyone.

Cause addiction to QE.

https://www.investing.com/news/econo...eports-3039269

[Destor]

The things folks forget when talking about how smart/accomplished someone is: when you hit 70 your brain really starts deteriorating. Jay Powell is in the same boat. Plus, they don't care as much because they not going to be around much longer.

Listen to Biden or Trump now, and listen to them talking 30 yrs ago. Its pretty shocking.

Why we have these "aging dotards" running our country and financials system is beyond me.

No one person dictates anything in our countries, Powell is backed up by the Federal Open Market Committee and functions as the visible head who presents the results of their deliberations etc but does not dictate what happens. The President is backed up by who knows how many layers of very smart people who all push their individual buttons and advise those up the ladder.

Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. You don't even hear about 98% of the people behind the scenes, but they're there.

[mulletwarrior]

No one person dictates anything in our countries, Powell is backed up by the Federal Open Market Committee and functions as the visible head who presents the results of their deliberations etc but does not dictate what happens. The President is backed up by who knows how many layers of very smart people who all push their individual buttons and advise those up the ladder.

Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. You don't even hear about 98% of the people behind the scenes, but they're there.

Agree w this. But I'm also in an industry where that is pyramid structure where the top is comprised of ppl who spent years and years clawing their way to the top and they are no old AF. Generally, the ppl in the middle of the pyramid are running the day to day and the ppl at the top defer to them. But unfortunately when a person at the top decides to get involved and says something, you have to do what they say, no matter how unreasonable. The people at the top make the big picture calls, and there is no accountability, they can just do it based on their gut, and everyone in the middle has to run with it. Can confirm this is how all non-gov capm/financial firms are structured. I worked in gov a long time ago and am sure it is largely the same.

So Powell probably had inbox full of unread memos from diligent younger dudes like yourself whom he employs that ran a bunch of numbers in 2021 and told him in may of 2021 that inflation was skyrocketing and advising him to get in front of it ASAP. But Powell has the luxury of ignoring all the hard work of his mid management employees and just saying "nah, it is transitory" based on nothing at all.

Yellen probably had an unread memo of talking points from the other day, and she just said what she wanted. There is blowback so now she is reading the memos haha.

Democracy is fine. Just needs an age limit.

[401Delta]

No one person dictates anything in our countries, Powell is backed up by the Federal Open Market Committee and functions as the visible head who presents the results of their deliberations etc but does not dictate what happens. The President is backed up by who knows how many layers of very smart people who all push their individual buttons and advise those up the ladder.

Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. You don't even hear about 98% of the people behind the scenes, but they're there.

Powell has veto power and is the only vote that actually matters. I would imagine he receives regular briefs by those with influence.

[_zman]

No one person dictates anything in our countries, Powell is backed up by the Federal Open Market Committee and functions as the visible head who presents the results of their deliberations etc but does not dictate what happens. The President is backed up by who knows how many layers of very smart people who all push their individual buttons and advise those up the ladder.

Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. You don't even hear about 98% of the people behind the scenes, but they're there.

Can't keep track of all the lobbyists. They pull plenty of strings. Money in govt and profiting over your position is just disgusting.

[RobParks2M]

Slow weekend. Wtf up with that oil move today tho

[Destor]

Not sure if directly tied or what but there's news of Kurdistan halting oil exports after the International Chamber of Commerce ruled in Iraq's favor over Turkey

https://www.ft.com/content/b4837b44-...6-45a51612dad3