**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Destor]

Oil barely budged when OPEC announced the 2m barrel cut, I’m pretty skeptical that a 500k increase is causing this compared to demand destruction from China likely entering another phase of cratering its economy because Beijing has its first COVID death since May

[Carbonfibre]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

China buys shiitload of oil from Russia. Their imports from Russia has gone up 3x since war started.

https://financialpost.com/pmn/busine...lion-since-war


.................

its trying real hard to hold October low and year low.

targets down $70 and $65.

I am extremely confused why MBS would do something positive??? unless that this was the move.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...case-khashoggi

[2020Wellness]

For a forecaster, you’ve certainly done a phucking horrible job of forecasting from what I’ve seen.

The majority, as in almost all of, financial advisors and mutual fund managers don't beat the market in the long term. The stats are the stats.

[Venom08]

TLSA is in a waterfall
I'd like to see it in the $30s-50s

[Carbonfibre]

yeah tesla is phucked.

stair case to $140.

margin call for Elon to put up more tsla shares was rumored to be $160.


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WTI reversed it all after Saudi came out and said WSJ article is false on production hike.

It did make me go bertstare whole time why would Opec cartel play ball.


WSJ is legit as they come, pretty crazy that they phucked this up.

[Destor]

There’s talk of Tesla doing a $5-10b buyback some time next year and retail holders talking about that being a drop in the ocean compared to the valuation

I don’t have the heart to say it might be far more significant by the time it’s an actual possibility

[TugOfPeace]

Bought calls on Sofi for 12/16 expiration. Guarantee it breaks new lows now.

[Swaggod9k]

No posts today???

Crazy price action on clothing retailers BURL, ANF, AEO today..

Earnings on all of them reported today..

BURL earnings was chit...

VOO near a resistance level..

Vix low near support..

Volume drying up...


Short city baby?

Puts on BURL?

Thoughts boyos?

Fed still hawkish

WW 3 still raging...


*Rubs hands together***

[Carbonfibre]

No posts today???

Crazy price action on clothing retailers BURL, ANF, AEO today..

Earnings on all of them reported today..

BURL earnings was chit...

VOO near a resistance level..

Vix low near support..

Volume drying up...


Short city baby?

Puts on BURL?

Thoughts boyos?

Fed still hawkish

WW 3 still raging...


*Rubs hands together***

I don't see short yet.

Market is just drifting higher cause real fund managers are out to hamptons on vacation and you have bunch of interns just letting algos do grind up.

Very light volume.

From previous page. Still tracking this way.

Gonna have some kind of rejection 200DMA which should be lower than chart below (4050-60 whatever it is atm)

Unless something changes geo politics, they are probably setting up santa rally.


edit:

updated chart

tldr

there should be rejection at 4062 200DMA this week if it gets there. (X)

than they will use CPI/FOMC to pump. (Y)

4300 probably not realistic now as steam running out.

nvm about next year.

[Arem24]

why?

Keep in mind I’m 50% at cash.

So by moving to cash I mean 50% to Something Significantly above that.

I anticipate a fall in a significant market. And to average unit it.

TheFed will move in one direction tunitiltheydont.


Then they’ll rebalance and it’ll be reflexive.


But not to do anything drastic.

Why does everyone assume something extreme here.

[SipNPiz]

Thoughts on FLNG? I heard congress insiders are buying it, 8 employees and has 10x of course they know something we don’t, not much data on finviz to tell if a buy today is a good idea though.

[lunchbox12]

Keep in mind I’m 50% at cash.

So by moving to cash I mean 50% to Something Significantly above that.

I anticipate a fall in a significant market. And to average unit it.

TheFed will move in one direction tunitiltheydont.


Then they’ll rebalance and it’ll be reflexive.


But not to do anything drastic.

Why does everyone assume something extreme here.

Where should I put 120k right now? Very srs.

I am selling my condo and will be a rentcel for the next few years. I am currently balls deep in energy/pipelines and other blue chip dividend paying stocks. Thinking of dumping it all in to VYM. THoughs?

[Destor]

Don't even know where I'd put new money right now, there's a lot of beaten down growth stuff but still pretty wary about what the next few years hold and what interest rates will look like medium term

Would realistically probably put it into Suncor and just let the $5k+/year dividends flow in

[NestBrah]

Don't even know where I'd put new money right now, there's a lot of beaten down growth stuff but still pretty wary about what the next few years hold and what interest rates will look like medium term

Would realistically probably put it into Suncor and just let the $5k+/year dividends flow in

Crazy what's going on with the USD the last week. Absolute destruction. Looks like risk appetite is back. Wonder for how long....

Also trying to work out what to do and absolutely no idea. I'm 90% cash, 10% equities.

[lunchbox12]

Don't even know where I'd put new money right now, there's a lot of beaten down growth stuff but still pretty wary about what the next few years hold and what interest rates will look like medium term

Would realistically probably put it into Suncor and just let the $5k+/year dividends flow in

Fuark may just average in to more energy and pipelines over the next few years. No not want tech no matter how beaten down.

[RobParks2M]

Fuark may just average in to more energy and pipelines over the next few years. No not want tech no matter how beaten down.

Energy is tough to decipher what will happen. South America is starting to hit the MainStage in terms of production. Guyana has a fukton of oil. Other countries in SA do too if they can get their heads out of their arse and put together plans to utilize said resources. It’s hard to imagine right now as we get all these discoveries that we will have a crude short fall. I think the real crux of our situation is refining capacity because greenies will never let another refinery open on American soil.

[2020Wellness]

Where should I put 120k right now? Very srs.

I am selling my condo and will be a rentcel for the next few years. I am currently balls deep in energy/pipelines and other blue chip dividend paying stocks. Thinking of dumping it all in to VYM. THoughs?

That's quite the dividend yield if you go into Altria. Nearly 9%.

[EliteEcto]

Watching TSUKA on Dextools. Looking solid like it will break the $130M range. Trade type: mid-long term. for more charts twtr @btc_sol

[lunchbox12]

That's quite the dividend yield if you go into Altria. Nearly 9%.

Thanks. Agreed. Already long a big chunk of Altria though

[2020Wellness]

Thanks. Agreed. Already long a big chunk of Altria though

I have 80k sitting around and am in a similar position to yourself. I've been eyeing Altria, but also just saw M1 Finance is coming out with a 4.5% savings account in 2023, which looks appealing too.

[RobParks2M]

I have 80k sitting around and am in a similar position to yourself. I've been eyeing Altria, but also just saw M1 Finance is coming out with a 4.5% savings account in 2023, which looks appealing too.

I haven't actually looked at historical patterns or done any analysis, but flying from the seat of my pants it seems like dividend companies are potentially at higher risk of being forced to lower/eliminate dividends as they have the proven businesses with higher input costs and each dollar being worth 4-6% of interest in short term bonds seems more appealing than paying a 2-3% dividend to shareholders. Again I could be totally wrong.

[Abzu]

Charles Payne and Art Laffer just had a great conversation on the China problem.

[SouthDakotaBrah]

Merck absolutely crushing it, up 44% in the past year

Large cap healthcare is GOAT for defensive exposure (srs)

[AriesTH]

Charles Payne and Art Laffer just had a great conversation on the China problem.

Link? where was this? Love listening to Art Laffer

[Abzu]

Link? where was this? Love listening to Art Laffer

I saw it on Fox Business this morning but if I can find it later, I'll post a link.

[Bingo559]

The Ray Dalio portfolio.

So he recommends only 30% stocks.

40% LT bonds, 15% ST bonds, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% commodities.

I'm surprised as this is more conservative than a 60/40. Is he some sort of mega BEAR?

[RobParks2M]

The Ray Dalio portfolio.

So he recommends only 30% stocks.

40% LT bonds, 15% ST bonds, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% commodities.

I'm surprised as this is more conservative than a 60/40. Is he some sort of mega BEAR?

Bonds are about to start performing far above historical performance. Once fed decides that hikes are no longer necessary it is time to go all in on bonds.

[Carbonfibre]

in case you need to know


-China lock downs again

-Apple has problem with production with said lock downs

-hence move down across market

-SP 3910ish has to hold for buyers

-also problems with that rail strike looming (hurts transport of goods etc)


otherwise nothing but chop fest till CPI and FOMC in 2 weeks

[SipNPiz]

My SNAX is doing well, I bought it because it was cheap, does that make me an optimus lol

[Destor]

in case you need to know


-China lock downs again

-Apple has problem with production with said lock downs

-hence move down across market

-SP 3910ish has to hold for buyers

-also problems with that rail strike looming (hurts transport of goods etc)


otherwise nothing but chop fest till CPI and FOMC in 2 weeks

Non-farm labour report is this week too unless I caught one of CNBC's old video uploads