**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[dankydank]

VIX daily RSI was 31 few days ago. Lowest it’s been in years. Next leg down coming

[Carbonfibre]

You should never ever be looking at RSI of VIX.

VIX is 30 day variance swap calculation of atm options on SP500.



SPX RSI sure.



Banks/fed everyone expecting lower print tmmrw for CPI. (if that is true) expect squeeze up.

This sell off atm via crypto shiiting again.

Market setting for bear trap atm for tmmrw.


Unless idiots again got cpi prediction wrong than market going 3700/3650.

[Destor]

I'm jealous of how much money the tech industry has to throw around. High bonuses and equity in that industry are so commonplace, you hardly ever see it in traditional engineering roles and when it is there, it's only for director and up roles

We might see something of a flip here, I think the compensation in tech may have been fed by the period of basically free money that we're coming out of

The next stretch might be that return to the old economy, everything is cyclical

[Abzu]

I think CPI comes in barely above expectations but if it comes in inline with expectation the effect could be slightly delayed, of course if it comes in low, the markets boom with the expectation of a Fed pivot in Dec.

[TugOfPeace]

BROS earnings this afternoon should be interesting. Already down 10% for the day, my puts are doing well but who knows.

[Carbonfibre]

crpyto leaking hard again

forcing selling in stock market



I think bear trap is developing hard atm unless they are levered to the moon in crypto and getting margin called to oblivion than who knows.


CPI should come below 8.0%.

[Abzu]

Looks like FB is setting up for a short term rally.

[Destor]

Food prices are going up here again, there's a potential big diesel shortage looming right now

[TugOfPeace]

Some of these earnings moves after hours are very odd. BROS announced and the share price has moved 20 cents.. it had huge implied move too, +/-15%.

[Carbonfibre]

Be careful looking at implied moves off stocks that have very little option volume / open interest.

You need liquidity.

All you doing is donating to premium sellers money.


Gonna get vol crushed to death here.

[TugOfPeace]

^^are you subscribed somewhere to be able to see volatility by date? hard to find that kind of data.

I think I will be fine, I had a small put position - judging by current stock price I am still ITM, and if CPI is bad tomorrow I'll close at profit. Otherwise, small price to pay to hedge against one of my larger positions. Couple quarters ago I had the same play and bros dropped something crazy like 40% after earnings, just wanted to hedge against that kind of move again

[RobParks2M]

Crypto r FUK

binance opened FTX books and ALREADY said no fukking thanks in 2 days is the rumor. $10b is the size of the FTX hole. This could have big impacts on the entire market if it is true lmao.

[imbeingcereal]

Speaking of housing.

That orange dot very lonely up there.

Misc main forum mortgage shiit talkers couldn't handle this stat.

I'm not saying housing isn't overpriced, but is this chart adjusted for inflation, money supply in circulation, etc.?

[Carbonfibre]

I'm not saying housing isn't overpriced, but is this chart adjusted for inflation, money supply in circulation, etc.?

Yes, notice the bottom label this is case-shiller index its normalized for inflation.

You can view the chart, here source actually.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kYEb

Point is that real estate will correct. To what extent next year its unclear. Who the hell knows. If job cuts continue and to what extent it will depend on fed.

Data outliers never work out.



As for simple comparison saw this few weeks back.

You can make something similar on own. Add more years in, not mine and too lazy to care.

[RobParks2M]

Ayyy Payo with solid results. Only concern is no profits… but small loss and 40% growth looks ok. They’ve raised guidance every single quarter since they went public.

My $7.50 CCs are likely safe at least. Hope I get a decent run up to sell more at a higher strike.

[TheUniBrah]

Speaking of housing.

That orange dot very lonely up there.

Misc main forum mortgage shiit talkers couldn't handle this stat.

Puts on REITs? Or does this not correlate 1:1 for commercial property?

[2020Wellness]

CPI comes in lower than expected, but still on the rise, and market futures explode to the upside. JFC.

Anyone wanna bet we're red or near it by the end of the day? These initial emotional reactions are so strong lately.

[Destor]

Bear
Market
Rally

Is this the one that goes to the previous ATH before we actually reach the true bottom?

[dankydank]

Month over month is up but year over year is down. So still going up just going down on a poverty metric

Food, gas, and rent going up. Things no one buys like used cars down

[MinisterOfLust]

I'm not holding my breath. This might a trap.

[Carbonfibre]

well I had SPY calls yesterday bought before close.


they set up nice bear trap with that sell off.


immediately dumped them on open.


fuel runs out for further up around 3950.

[TugOfPeace]

What is the next major catalyst? Always a chance a run like this continues for a while, is there anything that might end it sooner rather than later? Been waiting for SPY 400 to cash out on some things but am thinking now might be good enough

[Carbonfibre]

take guess what catalyst for market is?

it starts with Fed and ends with Fed.

Fed meeting next month

CPI data next month

these are the two super bowl events that happen twice month that cause dumps and pumps.

it tells you all you need to know what state of this pathetic market at the moment.




as for market running further today.

no.

actually hell no.

move is done.


from tmmrw and next week they will send flood of fed speakers to shove the market down or sideways.

because there is extremely dangerous thing called "inflation expectations"

you do not want this market running hot.

higher market goes the more inflation goes.

[mulletwarrior]

CPI comes in lower than expected, but still on the rise, and market futures explode to the upside. JFC.

Anyone wanna bet we're red or near it by the end of the day? These initial emotional reactions are so strong lately.

So hilarious. 0.4% m/m after what we have been experiencing is really bad. 7.7% y/y is terrible. JFL that rally because inflation not as bad as it could have been.

Its gonna be more hilarious in January 2023 when y/y is down to like 5% and the market goes nuts and declares victory (ignoring that 2 year inflation numbers are over 10%).

[RobParks2M]

Who has the fortitude to fade this rally with index puts expiring within a week??

[TugOfPeace]

Who has the fortitude to fade this rally with index puts expiring within a week??

I just bought puts on UPST @ $19. Edit: bought SPY puts as well for next Friday. Watch this be the one time where SPY breaks 400 and my puts expire worthless

[lntense]

CPI comes in lower than expected, but still on the rise, and market futures explode to the upside. JFC.

Anyone wanna bet we're red or near it by the end of the day? These initial emotional reactions are so strong lately.

I wouldn’t take that bet. Market got exactly what it wanted.


Maybe some feb puts. But waiting to see if spy breaks 390 and I’d like to get over that.

[RobParks2M]

I wouldn’t take that bet. Market got exactly what it wanted.


Maybe some feb puts. But waiting to see if spy breaks 390 and I’d like to get over that.

I have lots questions today.

Why is euro back over par?
What happens to the rally when hike comes as expected in December?
How far out should I buy more puts?

[Carbonfibre]

What? ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

CPI = down

results in
DXY = down which causes up in all other currencies
Yields = down

which means risk on in market is back hence why beat to shiit names can do 15-20 percent snap back rally upst / rivn / amc etc etc


its as simple as that.


fed fund rates immediately dropped

50BPS for Dec and 25 for Feb 23.




How you view stock market should always begin with the fed and end with the fed.

Fed makes decisions based on inflation and unemployment.

Market always wants to front run any hope of slow down or cut.

[RobParks2M]

This just seems like a huge overreaction today. Am I wrong? How does anyone see current market conditions being bullish? All the same people are getting absolutely fukking annihilated. Tech bros losing jobs, equity in their companies tanking, crypto is a widely failing asset, homes are getting smashed. These goobers getting wrecked on every level.


How is market not more freaked out about FTX failing? Seems like it should be a bigger concern.... And credit Suisse's problems became a non-story overnight.