**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Venom08]

I want to see BABA retest $100 so I can enter my calls again. So far it's doing exactly what I want.

[BuckNakedinBama]

Market been rallying lately thinking JPOW is gonna cool it on the rates. Now as the meeting and announcement approaches everyone is remembering exactly what happened the last several times the market rallied into a JPOW meeting/announcement - he comes out and says higher rates for longer and the market sells off. A 25bps hike with some strong language but acknowledging improving inflation data would be the sweet spot, but I still see more downside risk than upside potential here.

[TugOfPeace]

Always gives a chance to sell more CCs. Usually rises after earnings and drops in the days to come.

Sold some April $7.5 calls. Hoping the Feb 6.5 calls I sold end up a few pennys ITM.

Isn't there another earnings report in March?

My cost basis is $8.50 or so and I'm a bit optimistic it might reach that by then

[MinisterOfLust]

SOFI to 10!

[RobParks2M]

Isn't there another earnings report in March?

My cost basis is $8.50 or so and I'm a bit optimistic it might reach that by then

Every 3 months tug. So late April or early May.

[TugOfPeace]

Every 3 months tug. So late April or early May.

Just looking at past earnings..

5/24/2021
8/12/2021
11/10/2021
3/1/2022
5/10/2022
8/2/2022
11/1/2022

Idk, seems possible to see another before April

Edit: I sold calls on my shares as well for April, a move this large will have pullback. Realized that I'd reach my cost basis if they end up ITM by expiry

[RobParks2M]

Just looking at past earnings..

5/24/2021
8/12/2021
11/10/2021
3/1/2022
5/10/2022
8/2/2022
11/1/2022

Idk, seems possible to see another before April

Edit: I sold calls on my shares as well for April, a move this large will have pullback. Realized that I'd reach my cost basis if they end up ITM by expiry

Fully covered myself too. Sold a few more Feb $6.5 for $64, some April $7.5 for between $42-54, and May $8 for $58. Feel good about where these sit. I think the play was selling all Feb $6.5 and having them expire with $5-10 value, but idk. This seems a little safer and easier to roll.

Looking to sell some $6 CSP as well just to cover my bases. We shall see.

[ujelly]

My son's buying stocks for a school project. Anything good right now that should do well?

[RobParks2M]

My son's buying stocks for a school project. Anything good right now that should do well?

What is the timeframe? Just trying to get the highest gain in the class? Lol

[reinsdorfsucks]

My son's buying stocks for a school project. Anything good right now that should do well?

For fun I would do $SPXU, but I'd wait to see what happens at the end of this week.

[dopamine72]

It'll take a few more bad days like this to erase all my gainz from last week

How you boyos think the market will react to the fed this week?

[SipNPiz]

I think the usual will happen, folks buy a lot of options expecting big movement but nothing will happen, what I want to happen is 50pts increase and the market crashes 😈

[ujelly]

What is the timeframe? Just trying to get the highest gain in the class? Lol

Till April. Yep, just the highest gains

[Destor]

I think the usual will happen, folks buy a lot of options expecting big movement but nothing will happen, what I want to happen is 50pts increase and the market crashes 😈

The market will hit a bottom when the rate cuts come, not the hikes. Mark my words!

Either that or the total opposite happens

[RobParks2M]

Till April. Yep, just the highest gains

Personally I like more traditional bank stocks with lesser exposure to mortgage/refi and M/A activity. I like JPM as a large cap bank and Sofi is my go to small cap/growth bank choice.

Amazon seems like a decent choice.

It’s hard to say with such a short timeframe lol.

[BuckNakedinBama]

The market seems springloaded AF right now. Gonna move bigly the second half of the week.

[dopamine72]

Why did schwab completely destroy their platform layout? It was fine before now my eyes are bleeding

The market seems springloaded AF right now. Gonna move bigly the second half of the week.

I'm getting this feeling too

[SipNPiz]

Over 100,000 tech layoffs this month, stay employed out there boys!

[MinisterOfLust]

Is it time to buy more China stocks?

[RobParks2M]

Over 100,000 tech layoffs this month, stay employed out there boys!

Markets pumped today particularly towards the end. I have to imagine the meeting info got leaked somewhere and markets got bought.

[TugOfPeace]

Doesn't make any sense, but if things somehow point to upside I guess I'll finally average down and hedge with puts. Fukking weird though

[imbeingcereal]

Over 100,000 tech layoffs this month, stay employed out there boys!

Anyone else have a bad feeling about H2 of this year because of this? I know the argument against this is that these layoffs are small in the grand scheme of things. But from what I can tell, earnings have been mediocre, guidance has been soft to revised downward, and companies keep cutting costs/pulling back investment. Sometimes this is a death spiral where people spend less, lay off workers to save cash, these laid off folks cut back their spending, which leads to even less spending and more layoffs, etc. I just have a feeling we're going to see a pretty bad sell off again when all this lack of spending starts filtering through the economy.

I do think the Fed will pivot, maybe in Q4 of 2023, but if that happens, it'll be because sentiment is at rock bottom. That can't be good for our investments in the interim...

[RobParks2M]

Anyone else have a bad feeling about H2 of this year because of this? I know the argument against this is that these layoffs are small in the grand scheme of things. But from what I can tell, earnings have been mediocre, guidance has been soft to revised downward, and companies keep cutting costs/pulling back investment. Sometimes this is a death spiral where people spend less, lay off workers to save cash, these laid off folks cut back their spending, which leads to even less spending and more layoffs, etc. I just have a feeling we're going to see a pretty bad sell off again when all this lack of spending starts filtering through the economy.

I do think the Fed will pivot, maybe in Q4 of 2023, but if that happens, it'll be because sentiment is at rock bottom. That can't be good for our investments in the interim...

Joe said high unemployment is good for the economy and it’s going to be good for everyone! He wouldn’t lie right?

I’m also loling hard at the concept of paying my debts off ASAP Dave Ramsey style. Currently all the cash I’ve got is earning more in a dam Sofi savings account than I’d save paying a <3% home, 3.5% vehicle, or 3.3-3.5%student loan (I do have 5% loans too, but they are all paused till August anyway ayy fuking lmao). I’ve got a pretty decent cash cushion just because I’ve got the money for both the student loans and the car in the bank/Ibonds.

It is a little scary that before I started the hospital overnight gig my savings rate from work income had gone down a LOT in the last year even though I’ve cut a lot of expenses out from my discretionary budget. Cost of living is a beast. I should try to calculate the change I’ve experienced from what my expenses were via what they are now.

[2020Wellness]

Over 100,000 tech layoffs this month, stay employed out there boys!

Just lol @ having a boss as a grown man.

[2020Wellness]

I do think the Fed will pivot, maybe in Q4 of 2023, but if that happens, it'll be because sentiment is at rock bottom. That can't be good for our investments in the interim...

It's an excellent scenario when you're a net buyer of stocks, which I'm guessing most of us are in here.

[BuckNakedinBama]

[mulletwarrior]

Michael Burry ominous "Sell" tweet from yesterday.



But looks like he deleted all of his tweets today lol

https://twitter.com/michaeljburry

[Destor]

That's Burry's modus operandi, he has deleted/deactivated his account many times iirc as well

[TugOfPeace]

Michael Burry ominous "Sell" tweet from yesterday.

But looks like he deleted all of his tweets today lol

https://twitter.com/michaeljburry

Hopefully we see rugpull tomorrow

[imbeingcereal]

It's an excellent scenario when you're a net buyer of stocks, which I'm guessing most of us are in here.

I'm a DCAer at heart, but it's scary considering that if I were to lose my job, I can't invest when times are bad (aka when I want to get in) and I have a feeling things are going to get worse before they get better. Obviously, I can't let this fear dictate my life, but it just seems crazy to me that we're above 4K on the S&P yet everyday you see headlines of megacorps cutting jobs.

If Powell continues to be super hawkish, I think we could see some stagflation-like scenarios. Not saying it's going to be quite as bad as it was in the 70s, but I don't really see inflation in most items we care about (food, housing, energy, etc.) going down anytime soon, but unemployment could tick way higher if we keep hiking up rates.