**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Venom08]

AMZN gains hbnggggg. Targeting $120 for earnings next week

[Carbonfibre]

FYI we are back in 2021.

The Lucid rumors of buyout are from blog article and bloomberg terminal says the source is really really "uncooked rumor"



Welcome to 2023 where everything is squeeze mania again.

[Venom08]

FYI we are back in 2021.

The Lucid rumors of buyout are from blog article and bloomberg terminal says the source is really really "uncooked rumor"



Welcome to 2023 where everything is squeeze mania again.

GME and amc time again?

[Carbonfibre]

GME and amc time again?

oh you best believe I have my eye on those options flows atm running.

will examine later.

think lot of phuckery atm with GME since everyone getting same idea off LCID squeeze. might not be real.






atm LCID is getting halted down cause a phucking blog post is considered as buyout source.




edit:


Just to add this atm is not normal.

They are tripping over each other with FOMO to buy tesla calls at any price. (any of the meme names actually)

Market is running like Fed printer came back on.


Most of the meme call buying will be trap.

Good luck sorting that out when its flowing like river atm.

Hitting everything at any ask like Jerome next week is turning on QE again.


FOMO must be insane.

[RobParks2M]

oh you best believe I have my eye on those options flows atm running.

will examine later.

think lot of phuckery atm with GME since everyone getting same idea off LCID squeeze. might not be real.






atm LCID is getting halted down cause a phucking blog post is considered as buyout source.




edit:


Just to add this atm is not normal.

They are tripping over each other with FOMO to buy tesla calls at any price. (any of the meme names actually)

Market is running like Fed printer came back on.


Most of the meme call buying will be trap.

Good luck sorting that out when its flowing like river atm.

Hitting everything at any ask like Jerome next week is turning on QE again.


FOMO must be insane.

They are begging Powell for 75 bps again

[Carbonfibre]

They are begging Powell for 75 bps again

I promise you next Wednesday Jerome doing 25BPS.

Only thing he can use is angry words watching what is happening right now.

Absolute **** show from 2021 January.


This could be the greatest trap ever at this point can't tell shiit when there is feeding frenzy.


Options are flying so fast can't keep up.

[RobParks2M]

I promise you next Wednesday Jerome doing 25BPS.

Only thing he can use is angry words watching what is happening right now.

Absolute **** show from 2021 January.


This could be the greatest trap ever at this point can't tell shiit when there is feeding frenzy.


Options are flying so fast can't keep up.

I don’t think there is any reason he can’t just pick 50 and say he’s preventing overheating. Equity markets are hot. Labor markets still tight. Biggest inflation months from last year are dropping off and new sources of inflation are starting to pick up. I don’t think he’s too worried about dropping the hammer on higher rates initially when yields are staying down relatively. Perhaps instead he will focus on balance sheet runoff. Idk.

[Abzu]

No one is under the impression anyone here is giving trading advice. We are all just speculating and trying to make sense of the madness. Don't try to silence ppl unless your goal is for this corner of the dying gay indian bb forum to die completely.

I'm not trying to burn CF to the ground, I have found value in at least a few of his posts, I'm just making observations as we all are.

[Abzu]

that guy has mental illness.

nothing of any value has he has ever posted.

you would get better trading advice from leftcicle.

absorbs everything said in this forum and comes in later and says told you so or you're wrong.

if he is such genius he would be flexing his amazing gains or working at Citadel and not here on misc like incel.

he is forever on ignore and could give thiis shiit what he thinks.




now as for market

if anyone was 100 percent shot caller they wouldn't be on misc and everyone would be day trader.

market conditions can flip / mean reversion always wins

This is hysteria lol.



I posted this the last time CF was in a hysterical state, I think he was posting caskets at the time:

Lol, you guys get moved so easily, you still can't count out an end of year rally that could bleed into January.

The market was always going to fall after the pivot is announced without positive continuing guidance lol.

There's probably more "good news" that comes out to push this up before we completely fall off in 2023.



Yes.

Lol.

well than.

santa rally to end year

more like

12-19-2022

Yes.

That was in response to Tug of Peace asking if spy was due for a bounce, it bottomed same day.



01-03-2023

It's fun both ways my friend, TSLA bout to swing the other way =].

That was in response to SipNPiz rejoicing because TSLA was under 105, TSLA bottomed 01-06-2023 then rose 75% lol.






Yet I'm the mentally ill guy, who has never posted anything of value, who is worse than Lefticle lol, who absorbs what is said itt and then uses it to tell folks he told them so lol.

[thatsnarf]

rip

bought 175P next week tho

still got some shares left. sucks though.

hopefully it drops a bit next week and i'll just get them again.

bought more at 131 and 110 on the dip.

[Destor]

Tesla hasn’t bottomed yet, why would a company bottom as it’s posting record earnings? And record earnings were expected. Will the company post record earnings now after cutting prices by 15-20% globally?

The most violent rallies happen in bear markets. If I were looking to time this stuff, I’d be selling into this rally

[Abzu]

Tesla hasn’t bottomed yet, why would a company bottom as it’s posting record earnings? And record earnings were expected. Will the company post record earnings now after cutting prices by 15-20% globally?

The most violent rallies happen in bear markets

To be clear, I'm only talking about a temporary bottom, TSLA is going to fall violently this year.

[RobParks2M]

Tesla hasn’t bottomed yet, why would a company bottom as it’s posting record earnings? And record earnings were expected. Will the company post record earnings now after cutting prices by 15-20% globally?

The most violent rallies happen in bear markets. If I were looking to time this stuff, I’d be selling into this rally

To me, it’s a little concerning that the fed has put the market on notice that they were already planning rate cuts as they continue to ratchet rates up. I think they were trying to prevent spooking markets but instead they gave markets a reason to think current rates are just transitory LOL

Something I hadn’t thought much about was how long it takes for higher rates to impact earnings and actually show in the equity markets. I think I got ahead of myself and short dated puts may not have been wise.

[BuckNakedinBama]

I promise you next Wednesday Jerome doing 25BPS.

Only thing he can use is angry words watching what is happening right now.

Absolute **** show from 2021 January.


This could be the greatest trap ever at this point can't tell shiit when there is feeding frenzy.


Options are flying so fast can't keep up.

Bro didn't you just yesterday call me nuts for opening a big position in SQQQ late yesterday afternoon?


Sentiment has shifted FAR too much to the positive side with everyone thinking we're in the clear. That's simply not the case, far too many macro warning signs. Yes the market is not the economy, and yes the market is speculation, but it is tied to the economy to a certain point, just very elastically. People can't stay positive about long positions with deteriorating fundamentals.

[usersignup2]

Bro didn't you just yesterday call me nuts for opening a big position in SQQQ late yesterday afternoon?


Sentiment has shifted FAR too much to the positive side with everyone thinking we're in the clear. That's simply not the case, far too many macro warning signs. Yes the market is not the economy, and yes the market is speculation, but it is tied to the economy to a certain point, just very elastically. People can't stay positive about long positions with deteriorating fundamentals.

SQQQ is potentially the correct play BUT, there is no confirmation of a reversal in this rally.

FWIW I think QQQ 302.48 bottom of last gap is where you'll see it break, coincidentally timed with FOMC next week. BUT, I'm not going long until I see confirmation.

[imbeingcereal]

Feels like we're at a huge inflection point for the year. The rally to me makes no sense. We're already up what, 5%, on the broad indices? Tesla is up like 80% from the lows after they slashed prices to meet demand? Retail sales have been weak, Banks/Tech have been saying spending has been bad. The only major earnings release that has had positive guidance I can think of is Amex, but even there, they missed on top and bottom-line but are rallying based on guidance.

I'm no trader, but I feel like there must have been a gigantic short-covering or tax-loss harvesting rally from YE. I have a feeling Jerome is going to hike 25 bps and give commentary about "staying the course"; how "we still have a lot of work to do", and reiterate that rates will remain higher for longer, which will cause the market to sell-off. Big tech, like Apple, are also reporting next week and I have a feeling it'll be a weak quarter because smartphone and PC sales are down big. I wouldn't be shocked if we're below 4K again very quickly.

If we end up next week materially higher, feel free to quote me and tell me I'm wrong/an idiot. I'll be happy because I own tons of SPY, but I just don't see the logic of why we've moved up so much so fast. I think we're going to see the market come crashing back to reality when Powell reiterates we're not pivoting this fiscal year

[Carbonfibre]

Bro didn't you just yesterday call me nuts for opening a big position in SQQQ late yesterday afternoon?


Sentiment has shifted FAR too much to the positive side with everyone thinking we're in the clear. That's simply not the case, far too many macro warning signs. Yes the market is not the economy, and yes the market is speculation, but it is tied to the economy to a certain point, just very elastically. People can't stay positive about long positions with deteriorating fundamentals.

Than I followed it with just my opinion. (got be careful here...it doesn't matter what I think or anyone here but your own decision / what fit your trading system / risk etc)

What happened today after reviewing the tape now, I wouldn't fault you for taking chance that blow off top might be here or about to hit when FOMC happens with possibly very angry Jerome,

maybe the same Jerome that spoke at jackson hole Aug and told market to eat shiit and market sold 300 points in day or two.


Squeeze developed from Tesla options and than started slipping into LCID (off blog post rumor) than got meme stocks going made it feel like 2021 all over again.



Just to give perspective what is on deck next week

FOMC (feb 1)

Apple/Google/AMZN (legit like 20% of all SP 500) (feb 2)

NFP (feb 3)



you could legit lose 300 points or gain 300 points on the SP 500 in one day.

there is nobody here that can tell you with 100 percent certain which direction it will go

nobody knows how algos are set.

so when you say big SQQQ position made me do double take thats all.

[RobParks2M]

Random musing: why is there 24% SI on BROS???

Brcc: 8% SI for comparison

Sbux: 1.33%

[Elias373]

Tesla hasn’t bottomed yet, why would a company bottom as it’s posting record earnings? And record earnings were expected. Will the company post record earnings now after cutting prices by 15-20% globally?

The most violent rallies happen in bear markets. If I were looking to time this stuff, I’d be selling into this rally

cope

[Carbonfibre]

Random musing: why is there 24% SI on BROS???

Brcc: 8% SI for comparison

Sbux: 1.33%

Bros float 39 million shares with market cap of 6B
vs
Sbux float 1.15B shares with market cap of 125B

They are not even in the same ball park. Its like comparing McDonalds with mom and pop store around corner.

Sbux makes almost 1B per quarter net income vs Bros losing money last quarter was -2 million loss.


Bros has long way to go / to become anything.


They are lifting things that have no hope in hell if fed says higher for longer next week...... maybe under the hood financial conditions have gotten easier again and we about to get another bull cycle.

All these names below are gonna have problem financing debt if fed says something different next week than what market is doing atm.

Look at the YTD so far.




My short term trading is now ES futures / SPX only.


Whales had massive fight over ESH 4100 (This is SP500 4100) like big boy fight. Sellers prevented going over that critical level. If sellers get run over next week.

Shiit is gonna get real weird, it will be very wrong and Fed is pure garbage if they let it happen.

Next week is all down to fomc and apple / google / amazon with NFP to round it all up Friday.



How it stands atm.

They are give the wealthy the biggest free pass ever.

Biden will be parading up and down that they did it.

[Destor]

To me, it’s a little concerning that the fed has put the market on notice that they were already planning rate cuts as they continue to ratchet rates up. I think they were trying to prevent spooking markets but instead they gave markets a reason to think current rates are just transitory LOL

Something I hadn’t thought much about was how long it takes for higher rates to impact earnings and actually show in the equity markets. I think I got ahead of myself and short dated puts may not have been wise.

The market is still really ignoring their guidance though and dot plot, market is currently pricing in cuts far ahead of what the latest dot plot indicated. The Fed never gained back their credibility I think.

cope

Did you scope out the Q4 earnings call? I listened to the full call during my drive yesterday and all I can think is that things are about to become much worse. Tesla will likely perform better than the other automakers, but margins are likely about to compress pretty hard.

[Carbonfibre]

The market is still really ignoring their guidance though and dot plot, market is currently pricing in cuts far ahead of what the latest dot plot indicated. The Fed never gained back their credibility I think.



Did you scope out the Q4 earnings call? I listened to the full call during my drive yesterday and all I can think is that things are about to become much worse. Tesla will likely perform better than the other automakers, but margins are likely about to compress pretty hard.

Don't waste time replying. PLTR last time I checked still single digits and only meme squeeze will get him back to break even.





Every single move in Tesla is tied to options.

$250B market cap just changed hands in two weeks.


Elevator up / Elevator down.

Anyone here that tells you Tesla movements are tied to fundamentals doesn't know shiit.

If earnings mattered...they added $300 ish million of FSD revenue to automotive sale that was the metric that made them beat wall street estimates....eps was heavily revised down for Tesla earnings since Nov so they could beat it.

Conference call Elon again repeated FSD will be safer than any human driver, while SEC announced investigation yesterday.

Same line on repeat since 2016 when they staged video of tesla driving itself. This is the same reach as Theranos / Nikola rolling truck down the hill.

You can see just how emotional people get over Tesla stock .. its cult (big whales know this) its essentially equates to right / left in america today.


Only people that are winning in Tesla use options to play it. (risk is crazy but pro funds are pro funds for reason)

Funds 100 percent know this. Hence why Tesla has erratic movement. They accumulate force squeeze than leave retail bag holding.

Next week retail is packed into Tesla $190 and $200 Calls... if those funds hit take profit button retail will just watch premium burn.



Honestly for sanity sake just don't bother.





Lcid is legit burning cash around $3B per year and no profit hope delivering about 1000 cars per year.

Up 160% YTD due to some random blog post.




Next week Jerome just needs to give green light to market and casino is back.

[Destor]

Did you listen to the call Carbon?

Not to poke fun at someone when public speaking, but I think Elon's stress and subconscious acknowledgment of reality came to the surface when he stuttered hard like 6x trying to say "safety statistics" as it relates to the FSD Beta wide release.

[Carbonfibre]

Did you listen to the call Carbon?

Not to poke fun at someone when public speaking, but I think Elon's stress subconscious acknowledgment of reality came to the surface when he stuttered hard like 6x trying to say "safety statistics" as it relates to the FSD Beta wide release.

Waste of time.

I read some quotes after on bloomberg / wsj / cnbc.

Straight up fraud claims.

Elon 100 percent knows FSD is like 5 years away from being 5 years away.

However it doesn't matter since he needs to pump stock so he can sell again due to twitter debt.


Tesla on fundamental basis is worth $60-70 per share after that last earnings report.

[RobParks2M]

Bros float 39 million shares with market cap of 6B
vs
Sbux float 1.15B shares with market cap of 125B

They are not even in the same ball park. Its like comparing McDonalds with mom and pop store around corner.

Sbux makes almost 1B per quarter net income vs Bros losing money last quarter was -2 million loss.


Bros has long way to go / to become anything.


They are lifting things that have no hope in hell if fed says higher for longer next week...... maybe under the hood financial conditions have gotten easier again and we about to get another bull cycle.

All these names below are gonna have problem financing debt if fed says something different next week than what market is doing atm.

Look at the YTD so far.




My short term trading is now ES futures / SPX only.


Whales had massive fight over ESH 4100 (This is SP500 4100) like big boy fight. Sellers prevented going over that critical level. If sellers get run over next week.

Shiit is gonna get real weird, it will be very wrong and Fed is pure garbage if they let it happen.

Next week is all down to fomc and apple / google / amazon with NFP to round it all up Friday.



How it stands atm.

They are give the wealthy the biggest free pass ever.

Biden will be parading up and down that they did it.

I didn’t look super close but I thought they (bros) were growing quite substantially. And if Sbux can be super profitable why can’t they?? That was my thought particularly when they don’t bother paying a dividend-their income is probably used in a more optimized why that in theory should lead to greater share price gains.

My thought is we get a black swan from markets repricing fed moves for the rest of the year.

[Carbonfibre]

I didn’t look super close but I thought they (bros) were growing quite substantially. And if Sbux can be super profitable why can’t they?? That was my thought particularly when they don’t bother paying a dividend-their income is probably used in a more optimized why that in theory should lead to greater share price gains.

My thought is we get a black swan from markets repricing fed moves for the rest of the year.

Oh yeah anyone investing in Bros is looking for growth to continue, you can easily tell though why short interest would be high cause someone believes that they will not go vertical. Very normal for that SI.


CNBC last time think was saying Bros was around 500ish locations and only in 10 states I think.

vs

Starbucks with 30K+ locations and in every country basically.



This is like comparing tesla vs shiit lucid.



starbucks does have SI but when float is 1.15B shares you can't tell.



this chart is bull**** there is no doubt about it.

$120 if they don't step in than I dunno, market gone whack again.

$10 off all time high.

just might be timing issue for you with puts.





on your last point.

market should sell off after Jpow next week, if it doesn't and we get another squeeze than yikes.

[Bingo559]

for all you BROS bagholders like myself, i was looking to see if they opened any new locations in SoCal.

It looks like they are opening about 5 new locations. none in the heart of LA, but in the inland empire, which is about an hour east.

didn't say any opening dates but should be coming soon

[RobParks2M]

SOFI always moons right before market is poised to sell off

Always gives a chance to sell more CCs. Usually rises after earnings and drops in the days to come.

Sold some April $7.5 calls. Hoping the Feb 6.5 calls I sold end up a few pennys ITM.

[Venom08]

I want to see BABA retest $100 so I can enter my calls again. So far it's doing exactly what I want.

[BuckNakedinBama]

Market been rallying lately thinking JPOW is gonna cool it on the rates. Now as the meeting and announcement approaches everyone is remembering exactly what happened the last several times the market rallied into a JPOW meeting/announcement - he comes out and says higher rates for longer and the market sells off. A 25bps hike with some strong language but acknowledging improving inflation data would be the sweet spot, but I still see more downside risk than upside potential here.