**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[_zman]

RIP potential brokerage funding. Need a new roof. Ugh.

[Destor]

RIP potential brokerage funding. Need a new roof. Ugh.

Did it spring a leak?

[RobParks2M]

RIP potential brokerage funding. Need a new roof. Ugh.

Lulz it ain’t cheap. Even when I had to do mine I debated renting a trailer and just doing the dam thing myself.

[Destor]

Hawkish hold? Dot plot updated, forecast for rate cuts next year went down from 4 to 2

Still feels too optimistic based on how things are going

[RobParks2M]

Hawkish hold? Dot plot updated, forecast for rate cuts next year went down from 4 to 2

Still feels too optimistic based on how things are going

Everyone may be talking doom and gloom, but the numbers are still solid. Inflation is gonna pop again thanks to energy pricing, strong employment, and wage growth. They are going to have to keep inflation from rising meaningfully because as seen before the rebound can be worse than initial rise and once it starts spiraling stopping it takes a tremendous shock.

[Destor]

Everyone may be talking doom and gloom, but the numbers are still solid. Inflation is gonna pop again thanks to energy pricing, strong employment, and wage growth. They are going to have to keep inflation from rising meaningfully because as seen before the rebound can be worse than initial rise and once it starts spiraling stopping it takes a tremendous shock.

Definitely, that would be my view as well

[TugOfPeace]

so are stonks going up or down rest of the year?

[_zman]

Did it spring a leak?

Just a small, slow leak. Deteriorating. Apparently it's an '09 roof if I recall when i bought it in '11. Surprised it's already done in 14 years. Might get a 2nd opinion and do some minor repairs. I'd like to sell in a year or two and get to the mountains for my next home.

Lulz it ain’t cheap. Even when I had to do mine I debated renting a trailer and just doing the dam thing myself.

I did one with my Dad at 13. Must be mostly material cost, but I forget.

[imbeingcereal]

Everyone may be talking doom and gloom, but the numbers are still solid. Inflation is gonna pop again thanks to energy pricing, strong employment, and wage growth. They are going to have to keep inflation from rising meaningfully because as seen before the rebound can be worse than initial rise and once it starts spiraling stopping it takes a tremendous shock.

This is the same as my view:

1. Energy prices aren't going to decrease anytime soon

2. Labor will still be in short supply and will get worse slowly over time as the Boomers retire

3. Despite those headwinds, demand/excess speculation is starting to dry up. People are feeling the pinch and are starting to trade down/cutting back spending on frivolous items. Credit markets are tightening, which will put the kibosh on small business growth

There will be some push-and-pull between these forces, but unless there's a massive liquidity crisis via something like CRE, it makes sense the Fed will raise one more time (to crush demand for energy a bit) and then hold steady at a higher rate for a long time. The markets are stupid and still don't understand the Fed won't pivot until something materially breaks. My guess is we chop around in the low 4000s for a while. I just don't think unemployment will ever look bad because of the fundamental shortage of labor in numerous industries.

[RobParks2M]

Definitely, that would be my view as well

I'm just over here tryna speculate on where TLT hits rock bottom. I'm about to jump my holdings up from 20% of full position to about 50% in the next couple days if nothing dramatic happens.

https://en.macromicro.me/collections...ury-bonds-rate