**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[Carbonfibre]

since Lefticle clown got banned

deleted the last thread so....


Here’s a link to Part XIV:https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=180098003
Here’s a link to Part XIII: https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=179683203
Here’s a link to Part XII: https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=179120591
Here's a link to Part XI: https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=178155381
Here's a link to Part X: https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=173638601
Here's a link to part IX: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=169075363
Here's a link to part VIII: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?=164126631
Here's a link to part VII: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=159164961
Here's a link to part VI: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=154050541
Here's a link to part V: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=148493543
Here's a link to part IV: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=140949141
Here's a link to part III: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=124909341
Here's a link to part II: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...hp?t=112593781
Here's a link to part I: http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=3367271

[thatsnarf]

bags getting real heavy.

[Carbonfibre]

figured I add this.

10 year yields vs meme etf basket.

since its the common theme of bag holding.

why are growth stocks down question.

10 year yields up....meme stocks down.


any short covering will just be another reason for shorts to reload higher down the road.

[Carbonfibre]

There is some crazy shiit happening with currencies.

Basically squeeze in DXY......

Nations holding massive debt that need to be paid in USD

Huge trade imbalances that requires USD to import more (food/energy/goods etc)

[camaleom]

inb4 another ban

[RobParks2M]

I was wondering where our thread went lmao. Musta been a perm ban?? He got full on deleted?

[heiltrump2024]

funny how they ban lefticle but they won't do anything about wincel alts.

[Carbonfibre]

I am not sure why mods would delete thread.

Sounds like he did it himself?

[RobParks2M]

I am not sure why mods would delete thread.

Sounds like he did it himself?

That’s weird. I wonder why? Unless it was the fact he made the title political or something.

[Carbonfibre]

lmao this is the misc.

this is where filters doesn't exist.

being on the right is advantage here.





anyways back to market.

whole lot of nothing.

next week Tuesday is the big one CPI data.

expected number is 7.9-8.1% with core being in low 5%.

market is trying to bottom or at least hold off any further selling.

next week so many things gonna go down implied move is +/- 200 points on SP for next week.

this needs to be held.

otherwise another gap fill down would be to 3800.

[taf1968]

New thread means all my stonks will only go up . . . right? Guys?

[RobParks2M]

lmao this is the misc.

this is where filters doesn't exist.
anyways back to market.

whole lot of nothing.

next week Tuesday is the big one CPI data.

expected number is 7.9-8.1% with core being in low 5%.

market is trying to bottom or at least hold off any further selling.

next week so many things gonna go down implied move is +/- 200 points on SP for next week.

this needs to be held.

otherwise another gap fill down would be to 3800.

Imo nothing really matters until we get to the September hike.

[Carbonfibre]

Market has already priced in 75BPS for Sept. (futures showing 80% guarantee 75BPS coming)


Lot of shiit will go down before Fed meeting Sept.21.

You have the biggest event that happens every quarter (quad witching)

Huge quarter re-balance Sept 16.

Its not coincidence where they managed to ram things to the moon after June expiry. (ie apple)

You saw same March.

Expect fireworks next week.


That CPI print next week will move all the other rates hikes / bonds / currency etc.

[dankydank]

[heiltrump2024]

this looks bad. my portfolio can't take much more pain

[MinisterOfLust]

In.


I am confused. What happened to Lefticle and the other thread?

Speaking of bags. I am mostly bags at this point.

Perfect thread title

[MinisterOfLust]

See post #13

Still confused.

If you're perm banned why are you still posting? Lol

[MinisterOfLust]

Emailed them and they said it looks like some sort of mistake. So they unbanned me.

Oh boy. Hope that doesn't happen to me.

I got a 10 days banned not too long stated I posted porn. I emailed forum Alpha, but Mod deleted thread

Never posted porn crew

[Lefticle]

Oh boy. Hope that doesn't happen to me.

I got a 10 days banned not too long stated I posted porn. I emailed forum Alpha, but Mod deleted thread

Never posted porn crew

I’ve literally experienced the EXACT same thing before.

[RobParks2M]

Market has already priced in 75BPS for Sept. (futures showing 80% guarantee 75BPS coming)


Lot of shiit will go down before Fed meeting Sept.21.

You have the biggest event that happens every quarter (quad witching)

Huge quarter re-balance Sept 16.

Its not coincidence where they managed to ram things to the moon after June expiry. (ie apple)

You saw same March.

Expect fireworks next week.


That CPI print next week will move all the other rates hikes / bonds / currency etc.

My body is ready for pretty much anything at this point lol.

[Destor]

Gazprom out of left field with a weird propaganda commercial suggesting a bad winter for a frozen Europe and all kinds of energy/natty gas imagery

This one loses audio early but I can’t find the video anywhere else yet




Here’s a better one if this works

https://content.jwplatform.com/previews/n9zsImKU

Don’t want to give it too much attention tho

[RobParks2M]

^apparently no one fuking cares because natty and crude are dropping hard and fast.

[Destor]

^apparently no one fuking cares because natty and crude are dropping hard and fast.

Yeah I don’t think volatility is going away any time soon, liquidity and open interest in the crude futures market is low af and price moves are disconnected from developments in reality

Equities are stabilizing in comparison though, my companies were around 16% lower the first time oil dropped to $85 at the start of August before moving sideways since then.

If oil drops further and equities follow, I’ll be working hard to free up some new funds to invest. These companies are just waiting for a bigger decline with massive piles of cash ready to plow into buybacks.

[Carbonfibre]

They will care about oil again.

If you zoom out its pretty clear that bottom is coming.

anything between $50-70 should be buy.

$50 would be insane buy.

$70-75 would be good buy. (unless recession than oil going to $50)


Scenario 1 could be in cards if we go recession.

Scenario 2 if somehow they soft land this.

[Lowkick]

Bought some more VT today.
Long term baby, don't believe in crystal balls.

[lntense]

Market has already priced in 75BPS for Sept. (futures showing 80% guarantee 75BPS coming)


Lot of shiit will go down before Fed meeting Sept.21.

You have the biggest event that happens every quarter (quad witching)

Huge quarter re-balance Sept 16.

Its not coincidence where they managed to ram things to the moon after June expiry. (ie apple)

You saw same March.

Expect fireworks next week.




That CPI print next week will move all the other rates hikes / bonds / currency etc.

Thanks for the reminder on quad witching. Move today makes more sense.



I interpreted the beige book today as not all that bullish.

[dankydank]

Thanks for the reminder on quad witching. Move today makes more sense.



I interpreted the beige book today as not all that bullish.

Big tech and ETFs are down 10-15% in a week. It had a tiny bounce today which is normal. If it goes up more tomorrow is when you get a decent put entry

[Venom08]

In on this thread. The misc has gone downhill.

[RobParks2M]

DMS getting their buyout offer at $2.50. Time to find out tomorrow what my 30,000 warrants are worth . Black scholes model with 3 years to go seems to me like $0.40 or $.50 per is possible? My cost basis is $0.11 ayy lmao

[Carbonfibre]

there it is.

the oversold rally being run into CPI next Tuesday.

which probably pushes this even higher if the print is lower than 8%.

I would be very careful after next weeks quad witching though. There is probably better chance we have sell off sept 19th and towards end of month. Since Sept is pretty bearish month.