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  1. #1591
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    well I couldn't have been more wrong for today. Guess chop into cpi it is.




    At least we can be at a level for a good move up now after this selling once we hopefully get a expected or better cpi number.
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  2. #1592
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    Got bunch of BAC puts in November deep otm. Now itm. Don’t know to hold or sell. Still got 3 weeks left on it. Daily RSI back to 30 again. If it gets back to 29 I’m up 700%
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  3. #1593
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    Originally Posted by lntense View Post
    well I couldn't have been more wrong for today. Guess chop into cpi it is.




    At least we can be at a level for a good move up now after this selling once we hopefully get a expected or better cpi number.
    What do you consider “good” lmao.
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  4. #1594
    Registered User Destor's Avatar
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    Not seeing a decent rally this month would be a huge break from historical norms eh

    Pretty sure we almost never don't see a rally in December
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  5. #1595
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    This is really meaningful sell so far this week.

    There is real selling in financials/energy.

    SP has to hold 3900 for bulls this week otherwise no bueno.

    also just food for thought.

    there massive move being built into CPI/FOMC next week. (I am talking 150-200 points implied) the same shiit we get every time data is coming / huge squeeze or huge dump.


    so this selling is either trap going into next week or **** gonna get real and it goes 3700-3750.
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  6. #1596
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    Originally Posted by Destor View Post
    Not seeing a decent rally this month would be a huge break from historical norms eh

    Pretty sure we almost never don't see a rally in December
    There wasn't one last year - I remember making a comment for Jpow to give us a mercy christmas rally, didn't happen
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  7. #1597
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    Originally Posted by Carbonfibre View Post
    This is really meaningful sell so far this week.

    There is real selling in financials/energy.

    SP has to hold 3900 for bulls this week otherwise no bueno.

    also just food for thought.

    there massive move being built into CPI/FOMC next week. (I am talking 150-200 points implied) the same shiit we get every time data is coming / huge squeeze or huge dump.


    so this selling is either trap going into next week or **** gonna get real and it goes 3700-3750.
    Bear rally over. Low retest incoming?

    If he fukks this up being soft he will ruin our economy for the next 10 years.
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  8. #1598
    Rubber Banding Carbonfibre's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Bear rally over. Low retest incoming?

    If he fukks this up being soft he will ruin our economy for the next 10 years.

    Market rejected that trend line resistance all year.

    just happens to be 200DMA as well.

    that being said without going below 3900. nobody has traction here.


    its going to be absolute toss up what happens next week.

    as for bear market being over. only way that would happen if SP hit 4300 and stayed there.

    zero chance in hell that we see that. would be easiest short of life. 4300+

    don't even ask what happens next year...I think this years low won't hold next year.





    market is basically pointing to recession sometime next year.

    you can see it in crude and bank stocks.


    wti is getting smoked.

    could be $60ish soon.
    Last edited by Carbonfibre; 12-06-2022 at 01:59 PM.
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  9. #1599
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    Originally Posted by Carbonfibre View Post
    don't even ask what happens next year...I think this years low won't hold next year.

    market is basically pointing to recession sometime next year.

    you can see it in crude and bank stocks.


    wti is getting smoked.

    could be $60ish soon.
    I wonder if people retiring now would be better off going 100% cash on their 401k.

    Upside, chances are we don't see beyond 4300ish next year.. but downside is much higher right
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  10. #1600
    mad hatter RobParks2M's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TugOfPeace View Post
    I wonder if people retiring now would be better off going 100% cash on their 401k.

    Upside, chances are we don't see beyond 4300ish next year.. but downside is much higher right

    Cash---> Bonds once fed gets to the point of stopping hikes.
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  11. #1601
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    take this with grain of salt

    all banks last year December 2021 predicted SP 500 to finish Dec 2022 around 4500-4700...some even had as high as 5100. Think only one bank predicted Dec 2022 at like 4300.

    this week those same banks are predicting 2023 Dec market will be at 4000. (highest prediction is 4400 / lowest 3800)

    which means two things

    we get recession some time next year market goes 3400 ish and eventually bottoms

    or

    market trades all year in 3700-4200 range.


    both of these scenarios are absolute brutal considering you're going no where. (if you had to pick obviously the next time market hits low, that would be the dip to buy of course)
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  12. #1602
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    Originally Posted by Carbonfibre View Post
    take this with grain of salt

    all banks last year December 2021 predicted SP 500 to finish Dec 2022 around 4500-4700...some even had as high as 5100. Think only one bank predicted Dec 2022 at like 4300.

    this week those same banks are predicting 2023 Dec market will be at 4000. (highest prediction is 4400 / lowest 3800)

    which means two things

    we get recession some time next year market goes 3400 ish and eventually bottoms

    or

    market trades all year in 3700-4200 range.


    both of these scenarios are absolute brutal considering you're going no where. (if you had to pick obviously the next time market hits low, that would be the dip to buy of course)

    Only reason equity markets flourished is fed support... Fed is withdrawing support and making it clear what they want. I'm not tryna fight the fed. Hope my sbux puts make it

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  13. #1603
    Rubber Banding Carbonfibre's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by RobParks2M View Post
    Only reason equity markets flourished is fed support... Fed is withdrawing support and making it clear what they want. I'm not tryna fight the fed.
    Oh absolutely.

    That fed balance sheet has 3-4$ trillion to get all that free liquidity out after covid pumping.

    The only thing is how far more.

    Question becomes do all the stocks have to go before covid printer pump.

    Does apple need to be $80 and so on...



    I looked at SBUX...

    so consensus is $92-98 fair value.

    your short should work.




    basically sbux gave really strong guidance for next year....8ish percent revenue growth and hence why stock has been pumping.
    Last edited by Carbonfibre; 12-06-2022 at 03:24 PM.
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  14. #1604
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    By the time a recession is officially called, there is very high likelihood we will already be in recovery phase.
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  15. #1605
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    Looking at geo-politics and as many markets as I can, I am predicting the Russian war to go full retard within the next 30 days and that WW3 has already officially begun. Zelensky has bombed deep within Russia and they now have no option but to go full war mode now.
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  16. #1606
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    Originally Posted by SipNPiz View Post
    My SNAX is doing well, I bought it because it was cheap, does that make me an optimus lol
    My SMMT is soaring wsb style, definitely feels like an Optimus pick hehe
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  17. #1607
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    One thing I am watching as it develops is the convergence of the 50WMA and 200WMA on the SP500/SPY.

    We are currently in another strong reaction off the 50WMA in this bear market, with this most recent rally bouncing strongly off the 200WMA.



    Looking back at the last 2 times where the 50WMA crossed over the 200WMA occurred in 2008 and 2001. Here's how that played out:

    2008

    A strong bounce off 200WMA, reaction against downtrending 50WMA, crossover, then 49% drop

    2001

    Looking a little bit different, with a few weeks spent below the 200WMA, and approaching the 50WMA a few times, but ultimately a 38% from the crossover point until bottoming out. Granted one of those sharp legs down was the environment of fear and uncertainty directly after 9/11

    So, if we continuing to trend downwards over the next several weeks I will be very interested to see the action as we near the next crossover point.

    No predictions, things are a little too wacky at the macro level for me to fully read into. I am a little more than 50% cash in my taxable account and selling CSPs, CCs from time to time. Haven't rearranged anything in retirement accounts.
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  18. #1608
    mad hatter RobParks2M's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Venom08 View Post
    Looking at geo-politics and as many markets as I can, I am predicting the Russian war to go full retard within the next 30 days and that WW3 has already officially begun. Zelensky has bombed deep within Russia and they now have no option but to go full war mode now.
    Nah they just hitting air bases. Besides I’m getting ready to hop into your Euro short position with the summer expiration. No way Euro can keep up with 2-3 more hikes like the US is probably going to go for.
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  19. #1609
    Rubber Banding Carbonfibre's Avatar
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    lmao its not like some magically light will trigger "recession is official" lets drill more.

    market can move freely, at end of day its game of probability...you know something called normal distribution curve

    atm don't have to live under rock to know that its needs more data (Jerome said last week that Fed is not pleased how forecasting of inflation by professionals has gone shocker water is wet....just like how inflation is transitory , now fed is mad that unemployment is not going up etc)

    this is also first time in long time that legit tail risk exists due to geo issues 1. Russia/Ukraine war 2. chance that China goes after Taiwan. (those things are not priced in and nobody is going to even try cause you know hedging is expensive as hell, nobody wants to take that risk on unless you are going to be buying sp 1000 puts where banks/dealers will laugh at you as you burn money away)



    90-95 percent of trading is done by algos

    bunch of algos are setup for next week CPI/FOMC either buy or sell depending on what they are programmed to trigger



    Originally Posted by drewsef View Post
    One thing I am watching as it develops is the convergence of the 50WMA and 200WMA on the SP500/SPY.

    We are currently in another strong reaction off the 50WMA in this bear market, with this most recent rally bouncing strongly off the 200WMA.

    [img]https://i.imgur.com/nNxDG8nimg]

    Looking back at the last 2 times where the 50WMA crossed over the 200WMA occurred in 2008 and 2001. Here's how that played out:

    2008
    [img]https://i.imgur.com/XNg2yis.pnimg]
    A strong bounce off 200WMA, reaction against downtrending 50WMA, crossover, then 49% drop

    2001
    [img]https://i.imgur.com/tRn1EVH.pnimg]
    Looking a little bit different, with a few weeks spent below the 200WMA, and approaching the 50WMA a few times, but ultimately a 38% from the crossover point until bottoming out. Granted one of those sharp legs down was the environment of fear and uncertainty directly after 9/11

    So, if we continuing to trend downwards over the next several weeks I will be very interested to see the action as we near the next crossover point.

    No predictions, things are a little too wacky at the macro level for me to fully read into. I am a little more than 50% cash in my taxable account and selling CSPs, CCs from time to time. Haven't rearranged anything in retirement accounts.
    Extremely difficult/impossible to predict week/month ahead.

    Next week December opex (monthly) is absolute monster in size..(the quarter ends always tend to be)

    This is where 60% of all hedging that is done in market on index and equity level is going away.

    What they will roll forward and to what strikes well who the hell knows.
    Last edited by Carbonfibre; 12-06-2022 at 07:00 PM.
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    word is that Carvana is about to go bankrupt.

    now there is rumor AMC is finally dead too.


    what next Gamestop?

    could you imagine with all the retail holding GME. (suicide rates would go up hard on GME)


    they fleeced the shiit out of retail 2 years and counting Citadel just cleaned them out.



    these charts are legit criminal (coming to finance textbook in few years)

    CVNA is nutsssssss






    gme once in life time squeeze

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    crazy moves in oil.

    US said they will refill reserves when WTI hits $70.

    that should be wall to not go lower.

    lets see if this is true and holds.




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    Wow.

    So I had six figures in 401k money transferred from one broker to another. I clearly told the new broker to allocate my funds into a fixed account in anticipation of CPI/FOMC data. They got the check today and put it into Fidelity 500 which I told them NOT to do. They told me I have to wait 2-3 days for funds to settle before I can reallocate.

    It will take an additional day after that to reallocate, so potentially 4 days which is right on the CPI/FOMC data release.

    If I incur a loss due to their fuk up, they're liable right?

    Stuff like this makes me wish I had just put it all into an IRA.
    Last edited by TugOfPeace; 12-07-2022 at 12:54 PM.
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    Fortunately oil stonks are already priced like WTI is at $60
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    I want to get back into oil but it might be a few months once recession hits
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    Originally Posted by TugOfPeace View Post
    Wow.

    So I had six figures in 401k money transferred from one broker to another. I clearly told the new broker to allocate my funds into a fixed account in anticipation of CPI/FOMC data. They got the check today and put it into Fidelity 500 which I told them NOT to do. They told me I have to wait 2-3 days for funds to settle before I can reallocate.

    It will take an additional day after that to reallocate, so potentially 4 days which is right on the CPI/FOMC data release.

    If I incur a loss due to their fuk up, they're liable right?

    Stuff like this makes me wish I had just put it all into an IRA.
    Not unless the conversation was recorded. Good luck taking on a broker. Why transfer to another broker over an IRA?
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    Author/Trainer 2020Wellness's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by _zman View Post
    Not unless the conversation was recorded. Good luck taking on a broker. Why transfer to another broker over an IRA?
    He must like losing hundreds of thousands to brokerage fees over time. Not srs, but srs about the amount of loss due to fees.
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    Originally Posted by _zman View Post
    Not unless the conversation was recorded. Good luck taking on a broker. Why transfer to another broker over an IRA?
    The conversations are recorded, but they have the recordings. As far as broker vs IRA.. there are certain protections you lose when going to an IRA. That was my main reason.

    Originally Posted by 2020Wellness View Post
    He must like losing hundreds of thousands to brokerage fees over time. Not srs, but srs about the amount of loss due to fees.
    Only thing I plan to invest in is Fidelity 500 which has an extremely low expense ratio.


    That being said - talked to someone else and they said they didn't mess it up, it will be allocated to the right position by tomorrow.. so fingers crossed. Was planning to put 50% into Fidelity now and then wait until Q1 23 to see where things go.
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  28. #1618
    Author/Trainer 2020Wellness's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by TugOfPeace View Post
    The conversations are recorded, but they have the recordings. As far as broker vs IRA.. there are certain protections you lose when going to an IRA. That was my main reason.



    Only thing I plan to invest in is Fidelity 500 which has an extremely low expense ratio.


    That being said - talked to someone else and they said they didn't mess it up, it will be allocated to the right position by tomorrow.. so fingers crossed. Was planning to put 50% into Fidelity now and then wait until Q1 23 to see where things go.
    You’re saying your advisor isn’t taking a standard 1% fee since you’re over 100k invested with them?

    I’d look into that.
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  29. #1619
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    Originally Posted by 2020Wellness View Post
    You’re saying your advisor isn’t taking a standard 1% fee since you’re over 100k invested with them?

    I’d look into that.
    Only fee I see is $25 yearly for administrative services.

    Where the actual % fees start is if I go for their managed account program, which I don't since I'm self directing the account.

    I could be wrong though. And in 2.5 years I'm going to move jobs anyways at which point I will probably go the IRA route.
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  30. #1620
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    Random question do bonds being traded on various markets/bond funds that are publicly traded price in a rate hike within 24 hours of the interest rate change from the fed? Say Jpow decides December he’s doing a 1% hike(never gonna happen) do bonds essentially drop in value like 1% then keep trading business as usual?
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