**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[2020Wellness]

Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in November, more than expected, despite hopes that inflation is cooling.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/09/whol...s-cooling.html

[Carbonfibre]

^ more or less inline


its all on next week.

monster move coming next week


this is month of tight range.

they will reprice the market after cpi/fomc/opex


this will trade at 4100+ or 3800-3850.

[lntense]

What do you consider “good” lmao.

415-420, probably nothing higher that holds anything. Could make some quick $ before year end. Trading sideways into cpi.

[RobParks2M]

415-420, probably nothing higher that holds anything. Could make some quick $ before year end. Trading sideways into cpi.

I meant good on cpi. And they already released cpi no? 0.3?

Edit nvm that was PPI lmao

[usersignup2]

Anyone see downside to this strategy?

SPY currently trading at $393.

Planning to buy straddles at $393 strike, 1DTE on Monday (or whatever price SPY is at near close). Even if premiums are jacked up it shouldn't have an effect since the move will be large enough to be deep ITM. I priced in -35% IV crush on options profit calculator just as a sanity check and there is no issue.

Only way to lose is if SPY ends up rangebound between $390 and $396 after the announcement.

Is the big move for CPI or FOMC? Or both?

Tues dec13 atm contracts will be around $3.75 so your break even will be 385.50/400.50 assuming 393 close.

+/- 3% on 393 is 381.21/404.79.
You're going to risk $7.50 to make what? $4.20? That's a bad trade in my books.

[usersignup2]

For 12/12 current pricing would be $3.53 per straddle so I would make either $8.5 or $7.0 assuming price settles at $381 or $404. Net profit of ~$500 or $350. With more contracts obviously more profit.

Breakeven would be > $390 or < $396.

What?
12/13 393 contracts are $4.88/$4.33 so assuming theta burn around $4.20/$3.75 so your straddle costs $7.50-8.00

[usersignup2]

Hm I just edited my post right when you posted it seems. So you anticipate only a 20% reduction in pricing going from 4DTE to 1DTE?

If that is the case - risking $7.5 to make $4.2 - may not be good risk/reward for capital relative to profit, but in terms of the risk itself, seems low given that we know there will be a heavy move right? Chances of breakeven are low.

Biggest risk I can think of is CPI comes in exactly as expected and market doesn't move at all.. but is that likely given previous CPI prints.

Theta on 12/13 393 is 0.59 so assuming iv remains the same and price doesn't move, contract will only decrease $0.59 in value per day.

If your risk to reward is not at least 1:2, you are setting yourself up for failure.

[lntense]

Ahh shiet. For some reason I thought the 12th was a Tuesday. Guess I would be buying for the 13th now, on Monday. Had my dates wrong.

12/13 is CPI print
12/14 is FOMC

Triple witching the 16th too.


Should be a fun week.

[lunchbox12]

added 20 shares of PXD

hoping it dips further

edit: also going to name my kid Hock Tan. fuuuark love AVGO

[RobParks2M]

I'm banking on downside move. I have no idea tho

[dankydank]

OTM straddle on QQQ for Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon. Don’t see how this isn’t a big move both days.

[dankydank]

why OTM?

More money than atm or itm. QQQ most volatile liquid index. It’s been moving 5+% on these days.

[dankydank]

You pay $1 OTM per contract vs $4 atm. They end up at $10 per is why OTM makes more but obviously has to move a lot more or it’s worthless. IV will ramp up heading to the end of day so theta will be irrelevant.

[SipNPiz]

Everything green except Tesla lulz

[Carbonfibre]

Everything green except Tesla lulz

tmmrw if the market pumps off CPI

it will lift everything including tesla.

tesla could even bounce off 200 DMA weekly.

however over long term yeah that stock is going $120-130 than eventually, maybe even sub $100.


.................................................. .........


on CPI/FOMC play that was being talked about here.


just observation.

I have never seen higher implied vol going into event this year period. its +45% (absurd). theta crush is gonna be off the charts.

doing even far (and I mean far) wide strangles OTM would require insane squeeze or dump pre market.


I think delears/market makers have finally caught on and begging chasers to buy worthless bags.


tmmrw and Wednesday is gonna be really interesting.

glad I am just on sidelines.

[imbeingcereal]

Sooo, did the CPI # get leaked or something in the last hour of trading? What caused the gigantic pump at the end?

[Carbonfibre]

Sooo, did the CPI # get leaked or something in the last hour of trading? What caused the gigantic pump at the end?

yeah that end of day pump.

its almost like someone got leaked copy and was front running it.


not sure.


atm tmmrw SP 500 should move ~+/- 100 points.

considering the insane implied vol.

they made it impossible(crazy expensive) to gamble on 0DTE.

[Venom08]

Head and shoulders pattern on TSLA with a target at -$15.
Lol
But for real, it’s likely going to $50

[Carbonfibre]

massive drop in CPI

looks like someone knew yesterday last hour / hence that front running.


market is gonna open crazy green.


futures are on another planet atm

over 4100 SP 500 implied open at RTH

[NestBrah]

massive drop in CPI

looks like someone knew yesterday last hour / hence that front running.


market is gonna open crazy green.


futures are on another planet atm

over 4100 SP 500 implied open at RTH

As a short term investor (6-12 months), would you recommend selling out now ahead of a big drop in January?

[camaleom]

guess who bought calls at closing... strong lotto play is going to bring the xmas $$$$$

happy friday boyos

[dankydank]

JFL at No straddlecels

[dankydank]

Passed up calls early morning at 30 RSI yesterday and bought mid day instead. Early morning ones are already 10X if you took. Prob repeat same thing tomorrow. Only thing I’m worried about is when it does the reversal once Jpow doe press conference. First direction has been a takeout a few times

[Carbonfibre]

right.

you had less than 5 minutes to dump those calls on peak.






on unrelated news.


tesla is getting smashed.

not even on monster market move can it hold.

[camaleom]

right.

you had less than 5 minutes to dump those calls on peak.

ouch... I had a meeting at market open and missed the top

[Carbonfibre]

ouch... I had a meeting at market open and missed the top

sorry that wasn't directed at you.

was guy above ignoring the massive implied vol drop that was incoming.



straddle/strangle is garbage play when dealer/market maker are asking retail to buy lottery ticket.

this time around they were asking for arm/leg/kidney to play

[SouthDakotaBrah]

holy fuk Moderna absolutely popping off

large-cap healthcare/pharma is GOAT

won't be long before every large-cap pharma company is collaborating with Moderna and creating mRNA vaccines for everything (srs)

[Carbonfibre]

As a short term investor (6-12 months), would you recommend selling out now ahead of a big drop in January?

I am not financial advisor lol. Sorry.

I can take guess but at end of day its just guess.


Predicting what happens is really difficult further out.

Tmmrw Fed will provide guidance for next 2 months or so.


So lets see what happens.

[Carbonfibre]

2 year low on Tesla.

what a chart.

[camaleom]

^^^ he is not helping T pissing off the people that actually buy teslas...

tesla cars can only go down as the competition keep catching up.

tesla everything has challenges but still in a good spot imo