**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[thatsnarf]

With my write offs this year I may actually get a small tax return, so I’m going to go the I-bond route for that as well for max gainz!

That I bond thing is max 10k a year and I think you have to leave it for a year correct?

Somebody shared a link last time with all the info. I looked at it and passed.

[RobParks2M]

is this an accurate representation of an average joe's retirement? pretend they were born in 1960 and started investing at 33 in 1993. buying nothing but SPY.

They invested a total of 72 grand and is now worth 243k with dividends being reinvested.

if they stop buying, they will still make approx $3677 in annual dividends based on 618 shares

I suppose. But also consider most 401k plans go heavier and heavier into bonds the closer you get to retirement. How have bonds faired in the last year? They are supposed to hedge against downside market risk, but if I remember correctly I think they actually correlate strongly with market % drop lmao

Also keep in mind I think we are only like 18% of ATH which is sort of crazy when you think about it.

[heiltrump2024]

fak, my 401k is 100% into fidelity 500. didn't know bonds were important

[taf1968]

fak, my 401k is 100% into fidelity 500. didn't know bonds were important

Unless you're close to retirement age . . . they're not.

I'm 54 and I only have about 18% in bond funds for my 401k.

[heiltrump2024]

Unless you're close to retirement age . . . they're not.

I'm 54 and I only have about 18% in bond funds for my 401k.

if they are important, wouldn't it be prudent to accumulate them during your career vs at the end of it?

[RobParks2M]

fak, my 401k is 100% into fidelity 500. didn't know bonds were important

That may not have a bond exposure? I’ve recently gotten access to a SPY fund more or less with no exposure. We used to only have target dated retirement funds like vanguard retirement fund 2065

[headturner1]

That I bond thing is max 10k a year and I think you have to leave it for a year correct?

Somebody shared a link last time with all the info. I looked at it and passed.

Yep.. you can do more if you get a tax return, in the form of paper bonds, which are kinda fun..

I still have a couple EE bonds that my grandma bought me almost 30 years ago.

[taf1968]

That may not have a bond exposure? I’ve recently gotten access to a SPY fund more or less with no exposure. We used to only have target dated retirement funds like vanguard retirement fund 2065

Seems like anything "target date" I've ever had or seen was crazy conservative. When I set up our kids' 529 plans originally, I did the target date funds because I didn't really know better and I really regretted it in later years. They would have made far more with even a mix of S&P 500 and some more conservative options.

[RobParks2M]

Seems like anything "target date" I've ever had or seen was crazy conservative. When I set up our kids' 529 plans originally, I did the target date funds because I didn't really know better and I really regretted it in later years. They would have made far more with even a mix of S&P 500 and some more conservative options.

Yeah they fuggin suck. IMO waaaaay too overexposed to bonds even in the best of times.

[SpeedCheeser]

Yeah, fuk target date funds. Put my 401k fully into index funds, primarily S&P 500 equivalent.

[RobParks2M]

Yeah, fuk target date funds. Put my 401k fully into index funds, primarily S&P 500 equivalent.

This is the way

[Venom08]

Might just chop until the Fed hikes rates next week

[Dan_S]

if they are important, wouldn't it be prudent to accumulate them during your career vs at the end of it?

The idea behind bonds in your portfolio is to pick an asset allocation, let's say 80/20, and stick to it. Which means if the market goes up, you sell equities and buy bonds to maintain your ratio. If the market goes down, you sell bonds to buy more equities to maintain the ratio.

There are two problems though. One, it looks like bonds were a massive bubble for 30+ years and now they're absolutely garbage as far as return; so you're not "hedging," you're just losing on an asset with a lower upside. Two is that the ratios people were told are terrible. Even if you're in your 60's and retired, you're probably going to live another 20 years. If you put half your money into bonds, that's half your portfolio barely keeping pace with inflation (in a normal year, now it's getting crushed), when you really need that money to be growing still.

[dopamine72]

In and out of FUBO in 24 hours for a 13% gain

[Bavaria]

This. SPR at this point is flooding market for no reason. Saudi is already trying to cut back production which should signal the added 2 months of reserve distribution was unnecessary and just emptying reserves just to lower prices to appease voters. It's weird they want to keep doing that until voting is done in November huh?

Fed has been very forward in saying they want to increase unemployment because tight labor market is a key driver of inflation right now by forcing value of labor up it increases pricing for goods as well. It seems fukking stupid that the people worst off in the country (the workers) finally have a chance to get better/fairer wages for themselves in the open markets and fed has decided that we cannot risk them getting better raises time to force layoffs!

I have to push back on this a bit.

The relative market consensus is that SPR outflow is thought of as supply, but on the same hand not thought of as commercial inventory. Does that check out with you?

While we've had a few build/draws that wash out the trajectory the overall direction is outflow.



Also, the SPR outflows have picked up immensely. Last week was record breaking. Releases have also trended higher than DOE expected schedule.

This is a bit outdated but the divergence has remained the same since.



So if we look at EIA data and we're building 2-6 MBBL but drawing 8 MBD from SPR, where does that come from when it's finished?

Apologies for big ass pics, I'm a derp when it comes to embedding.

[RobParks2M]

I spoke a little loosely in saying that the market is "flooded" but they got the US through the summer which is the big consumption part of the year which buys enough time for oil production to ramp up to replace oil as needed. There is a lot of production that will be online by November/December with a couple of other big projects in the works globally. LNG market is scaling up big time as everyone tries to take a piece of Russia's LNG pie. Keep in mind too that Western governments are all also hyper focused on getting rid of fossil fuels, so that should slowly start decreasing demand eventually.

[Carbonfibre]

Might just chop until the Fed hikes rates next week

Correct.

I was looking at some of the big boy hedges and shiiit could get wild if market were go below 3800 next week.

Basically atm for bulls they didn't get huge oversold moment so they can buy the dip.

Instead bears are cooling it off atm hence chop city.

If Fed did surprise 100 BPS hike next week (market crashes)

Personally they won't do it...Way too close to elections.

75BPS is gonna happen.

3900 should hold / 3850 is buy the dip moment if you're brave and believe we ain't crashing.

atm anything from 3920-3975 is chop city.


I would be watching that 3800 level next week.

Market goes below it massive puts that were sold start to take water and shiit could get nasty. We go for year low.



Gun to head Fed will try to stay in background until election is over.

Going for new low into midterms would be devastating for dems.

Fed will do 75bps call it day and wait for Nov 2nd do another 50bps.

[SipNPiz]

I can’t wait till my savings rate is higher than my mortgage interest rate, then I could call into Dave Ramsey and say “why would I pay down my mortgage when my risk free savings account yield as higher than the debt”

This could happen by end of next month!

[dankydank]

Getting tough to hold at these levels but I think it breaks 52 week low soon. Got 5 weeks on these puts up over 100% and 20% on SQQQ

[topperstyle]

0dte spy calls for Friday or nah?

[dankydank]

Significant adjust down and withdraw entire year of guidance from Fedex. Imagine still being bullish

[Carbonfibre]

yeah this warning shot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/fede...estimates.html

Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expected
Revenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expected




This dragging Amazon/UPS everything down.


FDX down 15 percent after market.





Nobody is bullish.

This is dance of timing when market goes down or up. Your puts have expiry date.

Buy them out too far out and you will pay huge premium.

Buy them 2-3 months till expiry and you get one massive bear market squeeze and your puts go to shiit.

Unless you been living under rock there have been multiple massive squeezes to upside.

This has been nothing but stair stepping, slow bleed.

Nobody is gonna just limit down to let you buy the dip of all dips. (this isn't covid crash)

It goes both ways here.

[lntense]

proof or negs. (srs not srs)

you seem to only post when you win.

Only been shorting little rallies lately



I've posted when I lose, just not screenshots.


I took a 5k tesla loss last week with puts. Was trading with way too much size and turns out tesla ended up being the strongest stock in the market lmao.










Currently holding some Nio puts

[lntense]

I was thinking maybe we pull back to 386 tomorrow then market could run some. I'm betting the market still drops the next 2 weeks ish



Really have no clue with quad witching tomorrow, just expecting volatility regardless of direction.



Surely fed will do 75 then 50 in nov, kind of have to. Mid terms coming up also. They don't want a crash.

[lntense]

yeah this warning shot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/fede...estimates.html

Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expected
Revenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expected




This dragging Amazon/UPS everything down.


FDX down 15 percent after market.





Nobody is bullish.

This is dance of timing when market goes down or up. Your puts have expiry date.

Buy them out too far out and you will pay huge premium.

Buy them 2-3 months till expiry and you get one massive bear market squeeze and your puts go to shiit.

Unless you been living under rock there have been multiple massive squeezes to upside.

This has been nothing but stair stepping, slow bleed.

Nobody is gonna just limit down to let you buy the dip of all dips. (this isn't covid crash)

It goes both ways here.

That fedex move was crazy. Good indicator

[SipNPiz]

Anyone in this thread get rich of fedex puts holy chit that’s nuts

[RobParks2M]

Anyone in this thread get rich of fedex puts holy chit that’s nuts

Wasn’t even on my radar tbh lmao.

WBA tankage is my next short move.

[Carbonfibre]

Anyone in this thread get rich of fedex puts holy chit that’s nuts

There was nothing.

Option wise that someone saw this coming.

Had check for lol.


SEC would been up your ass if someone big snuck tons of puts before this lolz.

[RobParks2M]

There was nothing.

Option wise that someone saw this coming.

Had check for lol.


SEC would been up your ass if someone big snuck tons of puts before this lolz.

What did they attribute the loss of profits to? Inflation?? lmao

[taf1968]

Looks like a bloodbath today, boys.