**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[RobParks2M]

The Ray Dalio portfolio.

So he recommends only 30% stocks.

40% LT bonds, 15% ST bonds, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% commodities.

I'm surprised as this is more conservative than a 60/40. Is he some sort of mega BEAR?

Bonds are about to start performing far above historical performance. Once fed decides that hikes are no longer necessary it is time to go all in on bonds.

[Carbonfibre]

in case you need to know


-China lock downs again

-Apple has problem with production with said lock downs

-hence move down across market

-SP 3910ish has to hold for buyers

-also problems with that rail strike looming (hurts transport of goods etc)


otherwise nothing but chop fest till CPI and FOMC in 2 weeks

[SipNPiz]

My SNAX is doing well, I bought it because it was cheap, does that make me an optimus lol

[Destor]

in case you need to know


-China lock downs again

-Apple has problem with production with said lock downs

-hence move down across market

-SP 3910ish has to hold for buyers

-also problems with that rail strike looming (hurts transport of goods etc)


otherwise nothing but chop fest till CPI and FOMC in 2 weeks

Non-farm labour report is this week too unless I caught one of CNBC's old video uploads

[Venom08]

If anyone is interested Fidelity is giving $150 free to anyone that opens up a new account with them using code "FIDELITY150". All you have to do is deposit $50 and wait 25 days. Can't take the $150 out for 90 days.

Even if you have an account already you can just open another account type and it should work (so if you have a roth, open up a regular investing account). Works for each household member too, based on SSN.

https://www.fidelity.com/go/special-offer/holiday

Offer expires 12/2.

Rep me ****s.

Finally made some money off this thread

[JosephVis]

Finally made some money off this thread

lol

[apo99]

big ouuf haven't posted in a while

took some huge option trades that would put to shame some of the WSB loss threads

First losing year in 12 years, and it was 100% my fault

Blew through 500k in 4 hours loading up on puts while market was reversing a while back lol,

lets hope i can loss carry back and get some money back from taxes lol

[Venom08]

I remember when I started trading over a decade ago apo and I were both on the same forum (hotstockmarket.com). He began with a few grand lol
I'm very proud of you, even with the $500k loss in four hours....

[apo99]

pretty much how I felt, i also closed on a property 3 weeks before that loooollll

went from king **** to big loser over night

[apo99]

I remember when I started trading over a decade ago apo and I were both on the same forum (hotstockmarket.com). He began with a few grand lol
I'm very proud of you, even with the $500k loss in four hours....

Lool i remember that! and we would do crazy earnings plays,

I think we even got some right lol, seems so long ago

[SipNPiz]

$500k CAD or USD?

[RobParks2M]

Finally made some money off this thread

ded.

How bout dem dividends tho? fuking lol what a ****show.


@my brother in snax I had 17,000 shares with a cost basis around 28 cents a share...sold them for 40 cents fuarrrk lmao

[Carbonfibre]

Finally made some money off this thread

lmfao

reps on recharge.














looks like Jerome speaking today at 130PM EST.

hold on to your butts

volatility coming today.

anything he says algo will go brrrrrrr or rug pull


https://www.brookings.edu/events/fed...-labor-market/


if Jerome says 50BPS Dec meeting and pause no more hikes after Dec meeting.

look out.

[Carbonfibre]

50 bps is leading for Dec meeting. FOMC is Dec 14th

No there is nothing being announced today rather just talk with Q and A.

However his words matter a phuck ton.

Late August Jackson Hole meeting he was super hawkish told market to stop pumping.

There was 100+ point rug pull.


Today there is 50-60 point move expected. (no this doesn't mean go run and get straddle)


Premium is jacked atm.

[Carbonfibre]

there is your JPow effect.

caused squeeze in market.

today he was dovish.

[Destor]

I think we rally before hitting an earnings recession in the first half of 2023 while the Fed is paused, and then the Fed cuts as we drill down to the real bottom

[Carbonfibre]

No pullback coming with Fed pumping now and santa rally.

I think around 4200-4300 you can short.


atm this pumps with next CPI and FOMC. (unless somehow CPI data is bad)



As Destor said above. Only earnings can bring this to reality January/Feb.

[Elias373]

PLTR to the moon

[Carbonfibre]

what a squeeze.

took back 200DMA on SP 500.

significant and just bonkers.

this could trigger all kinds of buy algos to rip your face off trying to short.


either chase long or don't do anything if you missed this.

[reinsdorfsucks]

what a squeeze.

took back 200DMA on SP 500.

significant and just bonkers.

this could trigger all kinds of buy algos to rip your face off trying to short.


either chase long or don't do anything if you missed this.

Still have that trend line resistance at 408

[Carbonfibre]

Still have that trend line resistance at 408

you can say bye to that.


it has no chance of standing up to buy algos

[MinisterOfLust]

If anyone is interested Fidelity is giving $150 free to anyone that opens up a new account with them using code "FIDELITY150". All you have to do is deposit $50 and wait 25 days. Can't take the $150 out for 90 days.

Even if you have an account already you can just open another account type and it should work (so if you have a roth, open up a regular investing account). Works for each household member too, based on SSN.

https://www.fidelity.com/go/special-offer/holiday

Offer expires 12/2.

Rep me ****s.

I already have Robinhood, Webull, Etrade, and Vanguard. I love free money so I might open another account tonight.

[NestBrah]

you can say bye to that.


it has no chance of standing up to buy algos

How high do you see us going?

[Carbonfibre]

How high do you see us going?

there should be rejection at 4062 200DMA this week if it gets there. (X)

than they will use CPI/FOMC to pump. (Y)

4300 probably not realistic now as steam running out.

nvm about next year.

I thought market was going to reject 200DMA.

The fact it blew through it seems like scenario 1 is in play atm.

This pumps toward 4200-4250+ maybe all the way to 4300 using cpi/fomc.

If there is rejection this week/next week than support is at 3900 and would get bought quick for pump due to cpi/fomc.





From June low to August high SP went up 650 points.

This current low October low to atm SP is up 600ish points.

VIX is right at spot where puts are cheap as they can get.

So I dunno who wants to be brave to short this market. Those factors above are good...


That being said.....

As you enter year end and they need to dress up shiit year performance / santa rally bs.

I think it still keeps pumping to 4200-4250.


I am personally done trading options for this year as tax bracket issue don't favor me doing any trades. Just watching and waiting for next year.

[NestBrah]

I thought market was going to reject 200DMA.

The fact it blew through it seems like scenario 1 is in play atm.

This pumps toward 4150-4200+ maybe all the way to 4300 using cpi/fomc.

If there is rejection this week/next week than support is at 3900 and would get bought quick for pump due to cpi/fomc.

Dayum sold half my portfolio last week, thinking we'd top out at 4000. Regrets.

[imbeingcereal]

Dayum sold half my portfolio last week, thinking we'd top out at 4000. Regrets.

Bruh, are y'all really out here trying to time the market with your 401Ks and stuff? I (maybe) understand doing that with your trading account, but I assume most on the misc are in their 30s or early 40s at the latest? You have so much time to ride out market cycles that it's more costly doing this buying/selling than just staying invested and not touching your 401K beyond rebalancing asset allocations.

[Destor]

Bruh, are y'all really out here trying to time the market with your 401Ks and stuff? I (maybe) understand doing that with your trading account, but I assume most on the misc are in their 30s or early 40s at the latest? You have so much time to ride out market cycles that it's more costly doing this buying/selling than just staying invested and not touching your 401K beyond rebalancing asset allocations.

Nah but I would have put new money into the recent dip then hoped to average down in the next one if things do drill further when the presumed bad earnings flow in

[Venom08]

SPY is sitting at a mega resistance trend line and I’m not sure it’ll be able to hold this time. We’re now into December and we might just continue zooming to record highs. I still haven’t added a dollar to my ROTH for the year lmao ****

[RobParks2M]

I still feel like we are quite topped out. Regardless I'm more than happy having cash to drop into bonds to lock in 5%+ interest.

[NestBrah]

Bruh, are y'all really out here trying to time the market with your 401Ks and stuff? I (maybe) understand doing that with your trading account, but I assume most on the misc are in their 30s or early 40s at the latest? You have so much time to ride out market cycles that it's more costly doing this buying/selling than just staying invested and not touching your 401K beyond rebalancing asset allocations.

Nah, need cash for a house. Hoping to buy in 2024, so 1-2 year investment horizon max.

Retirement account would not touch.